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  • https://doi.org/10.64336/001c.128200Copy DOI Icon

A multivariable regression model forecasting the rapid intensification of hurricanes

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Abstract

Forecasting hurricane strength timely and accurately is of critical importance to ensure that preparations and evacuations can be carried out as necessary to save lives and property. In recent years, hurricanes have become more likely to experience rapid intensification, making them more dangerous and difficult to forecast with sufficient confidence, precision, and lead time. In general, rapid intensification is defined as a sudden increase in storm intensity within a short period of time, and often this intensification occurs just prior to landfall. Recent studies have linked the rapid intensification of storms to changes in the atmosphere and oceans resulting from climate change. The proportion of storms experiencing rapid intensification tripled from 1982 to 2009, suggesting that existing forecasting models based on historical storm data may be insufficient to account for today’s climate environment. Significant advances in satellite observation technology and an increase of in-situ storm data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) aircraft have greatly increased the information available for more accurate predictions of these storms. This paper will investigate several factors that may contribute to hurricane rapid intensification and assess their predictive value for Atlantic storms. A multivariable regression model was fit to the data to quantify predictive relationships and to provide a tool that can be used to help forecast rapid intensification of future storms. The analysis indicated a strong relationship between observed meteorological and physical storm data and hurricane rapid intensification, and the model produced an acceptable forecast success when applied to recent Atlantic storm history.

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