A new FCM-XGBoost system for predicting Pavement Condition Index

Compared with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) under cardiopulmonary bypass, off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) is minimally invasive and reduces the risk of intraoperative blood transfusion and acute kidney injury. Nonetheless, OPCAB-related complications still pose a threat. Machine learning technology can analyze a large number of clinical data, establish risk prediction models and help clinicians make early and correct clinical decisions. Risk prediction models are available for mortality and morbidity after cardiac surgery, but they are not specific to OPCAB. This study aimed to develop a predictive model of severe complications after OPCAB, based on machine learning. Anesthesia records of OPCAB from the General Hospital of the Northern Theater Command (Shenyang, China) collected between January 1, 2019, and June 15, 2020, were analyzed. The endpoint of the study was the occurrence of serious complications after OPCAB (postoperative unplanned intra-aortic balloon pump, secondary surgery and death). The features entered into the models were as follows: intraoperative ventricular fibrillation, number of saphenous vein grafts, nerve block (NeB), venous oxygen saturation (SvO2), skin incision-bypass time, and hypertension. A total of 8 machine learning algorithms were tested: logistic regression analysis (LRA), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), naïve Bayes (NB), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and categorical features gradient boosting (CatBoost). Among the 506 patients found in the records, 27 met the endpoint. The highest area under the curve (AUC) value was achieved with the XGBoost model (AUC = 0.94), and the lowest with the SVM model (AUC = 0.75). The highest and lowest accuracy were observed with the XGBoost and NB models, respectively, while the highest and lowest precision were achieved using the SVM and NB models, respectively. Based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the XGBoost model was selected as the most useful in this study. This study suggests using the XGBoost model to predict the risk of complications after OPCAB.

BackgroundCognitive dysfunction is the most common non-motor symptom in Parkinson’s disease (PD), and timely detection of a slight cognitive decline is crucial for early treatment and prevention of dementia. This study aimed to build a machine learning model based on intra- and/or intervoxel metrics extracted from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to automatically classify PD patients without dementia into mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI) and normal cognition (PD-NC) groups.MethodsWe enrolled PD patients without dementia (52 PD-NC and 68 PD-MCI subtypes) who were assigned to the training and test datasets in an 8:2 ratio. Four intravoxel metrics, including fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), axial diffusivity (AD), and radial diffusivity (RD), and two novel intervoxel metrics, local diffusion homogeneity (LDH) using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (LDHs) and Kendall’s coefficient concordance (LDHk), were extracted from the DTI data. Decision tree, random forest, and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models based on individual and combined indices were built for classification, and model performance was assessed and compared via the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Finally, feature importance was evaluated using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values.ResultsThe XGBoost model based on a combination of the intra- and intervoxel indices achieved the best classification performance, with an accuracy of 91.67%, sensitivity of 92.86%, and AUC of 0.94 in the test dataset. SHAP analysis showed that the LDH of the brainstem and MD of the right cingulum (hippocampus) were important features.ConclusionsMore comprehensive information on white matter changes can be obtained by combining intra- and intervoxel DTI indices, improving classification accuracy. Furthermore, machine learning methods based on DTI indices can be used as alternatives for the automatic identification of PD-MCI at the individual level.

Glass forming ability prediction of bulk metallic glasses based on fused strategy

River flow forecasting has been the focus of many researchers for many years.  The methods evolved from simple statistical methods to highly sophisticated mathematical models.  In recent years, due to the advancement of computers and artificial algorithms, new methods have become increasingly reliable and easier to use.  One of the promising artificial intelligence methods is the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model.  XGBoost is a scalable, distributed gradient-boosting decision tree machine learning library.  It provides parallel tree boosting and is the leading machine learning library for regression, classification, and ranking problems.  Three different algorithms of XGBoost were used in this research and the results were compared.  These algorithms were Random Search, Grid Search, and CatBoost. The proposed models were conducted in a station located Pò River basin which is the longest river in Italy, and it flows from the Cottian Alps and ends at a delta projecting into the Adriatic Sea new Venice.  The data were divided into training and validation sets.  The statistical indicators included mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and mean absolute error were calculated for each set to compare the efficiency of each algorithm.  These indicators showed that XGBoost using random search algorithm had better performance, although the other algorithms were also acceptable predictions.  In general, the XGBoost model could be used as a reliable tool to forecast the river flow at locations with enough historical data.

The potential of generalized deep learning models developed for crop water estimation was examined in the current study. This study was conducted in a semiarid region of India, i.e., Karnataka, with daily climatic data (maximum and minimum air temperatures, maximum and minimum relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, and rainfall) of 44 years (1976–2020) for twelve locations. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Gradient Boosting (GB), and Random Forest (RF) are three ensemble deep learning models that were developed using all of the climatic data from a single location (Bengaluru) from January 1976 to December 2017 and then immediately applied at eleven different locations (Ballari, Chikmaglur, Chitradurga, Devnagiri, Dharwad, Gadag, Haveri, Koppal, Mandya, Shivmoga, and Tumkuru) without the need for any local calibration. For the test period of January 2018–June 2020, the model’s capacity to estimate the numerical values of crop water requirement (Penman-Monteith (P-M) ETo values) was assessed. The developed ensemble deep learning models were evaluated using the performance criteria of mean absolute error (MAE), average absolute relative error (AARE), coefficient of correlation (r), noise to signal ratio (NS), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ɳ), and weighted standard error of estimate (WSEE). The results indicated that the WSEE values of RF, GB, and XGBoost models for each location were smaller than 1 mm per day, and the model’s effectiveness varied from 96% to 99% across various locations. While all of the deep learning models performed better with respect to the P-M ETo approach, the XGBoost model was able to estimate ETo with greater accuracy than the GB and RF models. The XGBoost model’s strong performance was also indicated by the decreased noise-to-signal ratio. Thus, in this study, a generalized mathematical model for short-term ETo estimates is developed using ensemble deep learning techniques. Because of this type of model’s accuracy in calculating crop water requirements and its ability for generalization, it can be effortlessly integrated with a real-time water management system or an autonomous weather station at the regional level.

In the rapidly evolving landscape of retail analytics, the accurate prediction of sales figures holds paramount importance for informed decision-making and operational optimization. Leveraging diverse machine learning methodologies, this study aims to enhance the precision of Walmart sales forecasting, utilizing a comprehensive dataset sourced from Kaggle. Exploratory data analysis reveals intricate patterns and temporal dependencies within the data, prompting the adoption of advanced predictive modeling techniques. Through the implementation of linear regression, ensemble methods such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), this research endeavors to identify the most effective approach for predicting Walmart sales. Comparative analysis of model performance showcases the superiority of advanced machine learning algorithms over traditional linear models. The results indicate that XGBoost emerges as the optimal predictor for sales forecasting, boasting the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1226.471, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1700.981, and an exceptionally high R-squared value of 0.9999900, indicating near-perfect predictive accuracy. This model's performance significantly surpasses that of simpler models such as linear regression, which yielded an MAE of 35632.510 and an RMSE of 80153.858. Insights from bias and fairness measurements underscore the effectiveness of advanced models in mitigating bias and delivering equitable predictions across temporal segments. Our analysis revealed varying levels of bias across different models. Linear Regression, Multiple Regression, and GLM exhibited moderate bias, suggesting some systematic errors in predictions. Decision Tree showed slightly higher bias, while Random Forest demonstrated a unique scenario of negative bias, implying systematic underestimation of predictions. However, models like GBM, XGBoost, and LGB displayed biases closer to zero, indicating more accurate predictions with minimal systematic errors. Notably, the XGBoost model demonstrated the lowest bias, with an MAE of -7.548432 (Table 4), reflecting its superior ability to minimize prediction errors across different conditions. Additionally, fairness analysis revealed that XGBoost maintained robust performance in both holiday and non-holiday periods, with an MAE of 84273.385 for holidays and 1757.721 for non-holidays. Insights from the fairness measurements revealed that Linear Regression, Multiple Regression, and GLM showed consistent predictive performance across both subgroups. Meanwhile, Decision Tree performed similarly for holiday predictions but exhibited better accuracy for non-holiday sales, whereas, Random Forest, XGBoost, GBM, and LGB models displayed lower MAE values for the non-holiday subgroup, indicating potential fairness issues in predicting holiday sales. The study also highlights the importance of model selection and the impact of advanced machine learning techniques on achieving high predictive accuracy and fairness. Ensemble methods like Random Forest and GBM also showed strong performance, with Random Forest achieving an MAE of 12238.782 and an RMSE of 19814.965, and GBM achieving an MAE of 10839.822 and an RMSE of 1700.981. This research emphasizes the significance of leveraging sophisticated analytics tools to navigate the complexities of retail operations and drive strategic decision-making. By utilizing advanced machine learning models, retailers can achieve more accurate sales forecasts, ultimately leading to better inventory management and enhanced operational efficiency. The study reaffirms the transformative potential of data-driven approaches in driving business growth and innovation in the retail sector.

The frequent occurrence and spread of wildfires pose a serious threat to the ecological environment and urban development. Therefore, assessing regional wildfire susceptibility is crucial for the early prevention of wildfires and formulation of disaster management decisions. However, current research on wildfire susceptibility primarily focuses on improving the accuracy of models, while lacking in-depth study of the causes and mechanisms of wildfires, as well as the impact and losses they cause to the ecological environment and urban development. This situation not only increases the uncertainty of model predictions but also greatly reduces the specificity and practical significance of the models. We propose a comprehensive evaluation framework to analyze the spatial distribution of wildfire susceptibility and the effects of influencing factors, while assessing the risks of wildfire damage to the local ecological environment and urban development. In this study, we used wildfire information from the period 2013–2022 and data from 17 susceptibility factors in the city of Guilin as the basis, and utilized eight machine learning algorithms, namely logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), to assess wildfire susceptibility. By evaluating multiple indicators, we obtained the optimal model and used the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method to explain the effects of the factors and the decision-making mechanism of the model. In addition, we collected and calculated corresponding indicators, with the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) representing ecological vulnerability and the Night-Time Lights Index (NTLI) representing urban development vulnerability. The coupling results of the two represent the comprehensive vulnerability of the ecology and city. Finally, by integrating wildfire susceptibility and vulnerability information, we assessed the risk of wildfire disasters in Guilin to reveal the overall distribution characteristics of wildfire disaster risk in Guilin. The results show that the AUC values of the eight models range from 0.809 to 0.927, with accuracy values ranging from 0.735 to 0.863 and RMSE values ranging from 0.327 to 0.423. Taking into account all the performance indicators, the XGBoost model provides the best results, with AUC, accuracy, and RMSE values of 0.927, 0.863, and 0.327, respectively. This indicates that the XGBoost model has the best predictive performance. The high-susceptibility areas are located in the central, northeast, south, and southwest regions of the study area. The factors of temperature, soil type, land use, distance to roads, and slope have the most significant impact on wildfire susceptibility. Based on the results of the ecological vulnerability and urban development vulnerability assessments, potential wildfire risk areas can be identified and assessed comprehensively and reasonably. The research results of this article not only can improve the specificity and practical significance of wildfire prediction models but also provide important reference for the prevention and response of wildfires.

Background This study aimed to establish and validate a machine learning (ML) model for predicting in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods This study collected data on CKD patients from 2008 to 2019 using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV. Six ML approaches were used to build the model. Accuracy and area under the curve (AUC) were used to choose the best model. In addition, the best model was interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Results There were 8527 CKD patients eligible for participation; the median age was 75.1 (interquartile range: 65.0–83.5) years, and 61.7% (5259/8527) were male. We developed six ML models with clinical variables as input factors. Among the six models developed, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model had the highest AUC, at 0.860. According to the SHAP values, the sequential organ failure assessment score, urine output, respiratory rate, and simplified acute physiology score II were the four most influential variables in the XGBoost model. Conclusions In conclusion, we successfully developed and validated ML models for predicting mortality in critically ill patients with CKD. Among all ML models, the XGBoost model is the most effective ML model that can help clinicians accurately manage and implement early interventions, which may reduce mortality in critically ill CKD patients with a high risk of death.

The diagnosis of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder is often delayed several years despite illness typically emerging in late adolescence or early adulthood, which impedes initiation of targeted treatment. To investigate whether machine learning models trained on routine clinical data from electronic health records (EHRs) can predict diagnostic progression to schizophrenia or bipolar disorder among patients undergoing treatment in psychiatric services for other mental illness. This cohort study was based on data from EHRs from the Psychiatric Services of the Central Denmark Region. All patients aged 15 to 60 years with at least 2 contacts (at least 3 months apart) with the Psychiatric Services of the Central Denmark Region between January 1, 2013, and November 21, 2016, were included. Analysis occurred from December 2022 to November 2024. Predictors based on EHR data, including medications, diagnoses, and clinical notes. Diagnostic transition to schizophrenia or bipolar disorder within 5 years, predicted 1 day before outpatient contacts by means of elastic net regularized logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to determine the best performing model. The study included 24 449 patients (median [Q1-Q3] age at time of prediction, 32.2 [24.2-42.5] years; 13 843 female [56.6%]) and 398 922 outpatient contacts. Transition to the first occurrence of either schizophrenia or bipolar disorder was predicted by the XGBoost model, with an AUROC of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.70-0.70) on the training set and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.63-0.65) on the test set, which consisted of 2 held-out hospital sites. At a predicted positive rate of 4%, the XGBoost model had a sensitivity of 9.3%, a specificity of 96.3%, and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 13.0%. Predicting schizophrenia separately yielded better performance (AUROC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.79-0.81; sensitivity, 19.4%; specificity, 96.3%; PPV, 10.8%) than was the case for bipolar disorder (AUROC, 0.62, 95% CI, 0.61-0.63; sensitivity, 9.9%; specificity, 96.2%; PPV, 8.4%). Clinical notes proved particularly informative for prediction. These findings suggest that it is possible to predict diagnostic transition to schizophrenia and bipolar disorder from routine clinical data extracted from EHRs, with schizophrenia being notably easier to predict than bipolar disorder.

Development and validation of interpretable machine learning model for pre-treatment predicting the response to targeted and immune therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma.

In this study, three machine learning techniques, the XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting), LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory Networks), and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model), are utilized to deal with the time series prediction tasks for coastal bridge engineering. The performance of these techniques is comparatively demonstrated in three typical cases, the wave-load-on-deck under regular waves, structural displacement under combined wind and wave loads, and wave height variation along with typhoon/hurricane approaching. To enhance the prediction accuracy, a typical data preprocessing method is adopted and an improved prediction framework for the LSTM model after the rolling forecast prediction is proposed. The obtained results show that: (a) When making a prediction on data featured with periodic regularity, both the XGBoost and ARIMA models perform well, and the XGBoost model can make predictions multi-step ahead, (b) The ARIMA model can predict just one step ahead based on aperiodic dataset with limited amplitude more accurately, while the XGBoost and LSTM models can predict multi-step ahead with appropriate data preprocessing, and (c) All the three models can predict the data tendency with model updating over time, but the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model is more favorable. The successful application of these three machine learning techniques can provide guidance to resolve engineering problems with time-history prediction requirements.

The green concretes industry benefits from utilizing gel to replace parts of the cement in concretes. However, measuring the compressive strength of geo-polymer concretes (CSGPoC) needs a significant amount of work and expenditure. Therefore, the best idea is predicting CSGPoC with a high level of accuracy. To do this, the base learner and super learner machine learning models were proposed in this study to anticipate CSGPoC. The decision tree (DT) is applied as base learner, and the random forest and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) techniques are used as super learner system. In this regard, a database was provided involving 259 CSGPoC data samples, of which four-fifths of is considered for the training model and one-fifth is selected for the testing models. The values of fly ash, ground-granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBS), Na2SiO3, NaOH, fine aggregate, gravel 4/10 mm, gravel 10/20 mm, water/solids ratio, and NaOH molarity were considered as input of the models to estimate CSGPoC. To evaluate the reliability and performance of the decision tree (DT), XGBoost, and random forest (RF) models, 12 performance evaluation metrics were determined. Based on the obtained results, the highest degree of accuracy is achieved by the XGBoost model with mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.073, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.547, Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) of 0.981, correlation coefficient (R) of 0.991, R2 of 0.982, root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.458, Willmott's index (WI) of 0.795, weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) of 0.046, Bias of 2.073, square index (SI) of 0.054, p of 0.027, mean relative error (MRE) of -0.014, and a20 of 0.983 for the training model and MAE of 2.06, MAPE of 6.553, NS of 0.985, R of 0.993, R2 of 0.986, RMSE of 2.307, WI of 0.818, WMAPE of 0.05, Bias of 2.06, SI of 0.056, p of 0.028, MRE of -0.015, and a20 of 0.949 for the testing model. By importing the testing set into trained models, values of 0.8969, 0.9857, and 0.9424 for R2 were obtained for DT, XGBoost, and RF, respectively, which show the superiority of the XGBoost model in CSGPoC estimation. In conclusion, the XGBoost model is capable of more accurately predicting CSGPoC than DT and RF models.

ObjectivesHuman brucellosis is a public health problem endangering health and property in China. Predicting the trend and the seasonality of human brucellosis is of great significance for its prevention. In...

ObjectivesA radiomics-based explainable eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was developed to predict central cervical lymph node metastasis (CCLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), including positive and negative effects.MethodsA total of 587 PTC patients admitted at Binzhou Medical University Hospital from 2017 to 2021 were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were randomized into the training and test cohorts with an 8:2 ratio. Radiomics features were extracted from ultrasound images of the primary PTC lesions. The minimum redundancy maximum relevance algorithm and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used to select CCLNM positively-related features and radiomics scores were constructed. Clinical features, ultrasound features, and radiomics score were screened out by the Boruta algorithm, and the XGBoost model was constructed from these characteristics. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used for individualized and visualized interpretation. SHAP addressed the cognitive opacity of machine learning models.ResultsEleven radiomics features were used to calculate the radiomics score. Five critical elements were used to build the XGBoost model: capsular invasion, radiomics score, diameter, age, and calcification. The area under the curve was 91.53% and 90.88% in the training and test cohorts, respectively. SHAP plots showed the influence of each parameter on the XGBoost model, including positive (i.e., capsular invasion, radiomics score, diameter, and calcification) and negative (i.e., age) impacts. The XGBoost model outperformed the radiologist, increasing the AUC by 44%.ConclusionsThe radiomics-based XGBoost model predicted CCLNM in PTC patients. Visual interpretation using SHAP made the model an effective tool for preoperative guidance of clinical procedures, including positive and negative impacts.

To identify factors affecting and key environmental factors of the Oncomelania hupensis snail density in the Yangtze River Delta region using machine learning methods. Administrative village-level O. hupensis snail survey data in the Yangtze River Delta (including Shanghai Municipality, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province and Anhui Province) from 2011 to 2021 were retrieved from the Information Management System for Parasitic Disease Control of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Environmental factor data were captured from the Google Earth Engine platform, including elevation, slope, terrain, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation type, soil type, total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH), ammonium nitrogen, inorganic nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, pH of water, chemical oxygen demand (COD) and inorganic phosphorus, and climatic factor data in the study region were retrieved from the Copernicus Climate Data Store, including annual precipitation, aridity index and annual mean temperature (AMT). O. hupensis snail survey data in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2011 to 2021 were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a test set (30%), and five machine learning models were selected for machine learning model construction and comparative analysis of the O. hupensis snail density using the software R 4.3.0, including random forest (RF), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting machine (GBM) and neural network (NN). The XGBoost model was employed to construct a predictive model for the O. hupensis snail density, and the impact of each environmental factor on O. hupensis snail distribution was quantified. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAPs) values were calculated to estimate the average contribution of each variable to the model prediction, and the core environmental factors affecting the O. hupensis snail population density were screened. Among the five machine learning models, the XGBoost model exhibited the optimal comprehensive performance, with the coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.855, mean squared error (MSE) of 0.188, root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.434 and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.155, respectively. Analysis of factors affecting the O. hupensis snail density with the XGBoost model showed that among the 16 environmental factors, the top four high-impact factors ranked by SHAPs values included annual precipitation, elevation, aridity index and NDVI, with cumulative SHAPs contributions of 75%, which was higher than that of other environmental factors. If NDVI was higher than 0.6, the O. hupensis snail density increased with NDVI and peaked if NDVI was 0.8 (1.60 snails/0.1 m2). The O. hupensis snail density increased with elevation if the elevation ranged from 14 to 40 m, and slowly rose if the annual precipitation ranged from 900 to 1 300 mm, and then increased rapidly to the peak (1.52 snails/0.1 m2) if the annual precipitation ranged from 1 300 to 1 500 mm. In addition, the O. hupensis snail density increased rapidly to the maximum (1.60 snails/0.1 m2) if the aridity index ranged from 0.8 to 1.1, and decreased gradually if the aridity index exceeded 1.1. The XGBoost model shows excellent performance in prediction of the O. hupensis snail density and identification of key environmental factors in the Yangtze River Delta region. Annual precipitation, elevation, aridity index and NDVI are key environmental factors affecting the distribution and density of O. hupensis snails in the Yangtze River Delta region.