A novel combination model for wind power forecasting with error evaluation parameter based on cross entropy theory

The accuracy of wind power forecasting has a very important influence on the safe and stable operation of power system. However, wind power prediction is very difficult, especially under the environment of massive data. This paper presents a novel multi-step ahead wind power prediction model based on recurrent neural network (RNN) with long short-term memory (LSTM) unit or gated recurrent unit (GRU) to improve the accuracy. Firstly, an overall forecasting framework for wind power with diverse forms of optional hybrid models is proposed. Moreover, an innovative LSTM/GRU-based forecasting model is developed with a wind speed correction process using numerical weather prediction (NWP) data. Through the application of GRU network, the correction process can provide corrected wind speed at the predicted moment as an input of the forecasting model. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed RNN approaches as compared to the ARIMA method and SVM method while the main distinctions between the LSTM and GRU network are also illustrated.

An algorithm for forecasting day-ahead wind power via novel long short-term memory and wind power ramp events

Wind power prediction method based on regime of switching kernel functions

Very-short-term wind power prediction is of great significance for the safe and stable operation of power system. As a well-known time series model, vector autoregressive (VAR) model is very suitable for very-short-term forecasting, and it can consider the temporal and spatial correlation among multiple wind farms to improve the forecasting accuracy. However, when there are a large number of wind farms, VAR model is prone to over-fitting. Slow calculation speed is also the problem of VAR model. This paper adds regularization terms in estimating coefficients to obtain a sparse coefficient matrix, which helps to avoid over-fitting. Online VAR model is used to improve the calculation speed, and a specific improved online VAR method is proposed for forecasting wind power output from new-built wind farms. This method is tested in a specific case, and the prediction accuracy and calculation speed are better than the traditional VAR model. In addition, the improved online VAR method can accurately predict wind power output of new-built wind farms with little historical data.

Accurate short-term forecasting of wind farm power generation is of great significance to economic development and stable operation of power system. In order to improve the accuracy of wind power prediction, this paper presents a short-term wind power prediction method based on empirical mode decomposition and deep learning. We firstly decompose historical data into two-dimensional tensors by using empirical mode decomposition, and then extract the local features of data by using convolutional neural network. The features are transmitted to the bidirectional long short-term memory for prediction. The measured wind power data form wind farm in Xinjiang are used for verification. We use root mean square error and mean absolute error as evaluation indexes to test the algorithm. Results of the experiment show that the reconstructed two-dimensional tensor is beneficial to the ability of convolutional neural network to extract local features, and the prediction accuracy of our method is higher than that of other traditional prediction algorithms.

Wind power plays a more and more important part in today’s electricity market with the increasing need of clean energy. How to make better use of wind power is attracting great attention due to the inherent uncertainty caused by extreme complexity of weather systems. In order to address difficulty, we introduced a time-series prediction method called FEDformer to the field of wind power forecasting, and made some adjustment so that the FEDformer could perform better in this field. We tested this novel model on a real-world wind farm dataset, and compared it with other traditional machine learning methods. Results show that the proposed method for wind power prediction has better accuracy and greater potential for engineering applications. It is effective to apply transformer-based model to the field of wind power prediction.

With the rapid development of renewable energy, accurately forecasting wind power is crucial for the stable operation of power systems and effective energy management. This paper proposes a short-term wind power forecasting method based on the Orthogonalized Maximal Information Coefficient (OMNIC) combined with an Adaptive fractional Generalized Pareto motion (fGPm) model. The method quantifies the influence of meteorological factors on wind power prediction and identifies the optimal set and number of influencing factors. The model accounts for long-range dependence (LRD) in time series data and constructs an uncertainty model using the properties and parameters of the fractional generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), significantly improving prediction accuracy under nonlinear conditions. The proposed approach was validated using a real dataset from a wind farm in northwest China and compared with other models such as Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network-Gated Recurrent Unit (CNN-GRU). Results show that the adaptive fGPm model reduces RMSE by 0.448 MW and 0.466 MW, MAPE by 6.936% and 9.702%, and achieves an average R2 of 0.9826 compared to CNN-GRU and CNN-LSTM. The improvement is due to the dynamic adjustment to data trends and effective use of LRD features. This method provides practical value in improving wind power prediction accuracy and addressing grid integration and regulation challenges.

Power grid is developing towards the direction of intelligence. Nevertheless, the giant grid scale, complicated structure and external natural factors result in the potential of large-scaled power failure. Traditional black start power gives priority to hydropower. In areas with shortage of hydro power resources, suitable black start power is insufficient. The key of black start is able to realize the safe and stable operation of wind power and energy storage cogeneration system. Due to the combination of wind turbines and energy storage is a small system, energy storage, as a black start power source, starts the wind turbines together to supply power for the remote load. Therefore, it is necessary to run the balance and stable operation of a small system. In this paper, PSCAD simulation software is employed to conduct modeling of wind power and energy storage system, and the self-starting process of wind storage cogeneration system is analyzed by using resistance sensor as the load. The result verifies the wind power storage system's initiation process.

For large wind farms with grid-connected power generation systems, power prediction is very important. A sparrow search algorithm is proposed for optimizing the wind power prediction in BP neural network to improve the accuracy and stability of wind power prediction. Tent chaotic mapping gets used to increase the species diversity of the sparrow search algorithm and improve the ability of the algorithm to step out of local optimization and global search. The improved SSA-BP algorithm and traditional BP neural network method are used to predict the wind power. The prediction results and errors of the two methods are compared. The comparative analysis of the actual measured data and model prediction data shows that the SSA-BP method can better track the trend of the actual wind speed data, reduce the error and improve the prediction accuracy.

With the rapid increase in wind power, its strong randomness has brought great challenges to power system operation. Accurate and timely ultra-short-term wind power prediction is essential for the stable operation of power systems. In this paper, an LsAdam–LSTM model is proposed for ultra-short-term wind power prediction, which is obtained by accelerating the long short-term memory (LSTM) network using an improved Adam optimizer with loss shrinkage (LsAdam). For a specific network topology, training progress heavily depends on the learning rate. To make the training loss of LSTM shrink faster with standard Adam, we use the past training loss-changing information to finely tune the next learning rate. Therefore, we design a gain coefficient according to the loss change to adjust the global learning rate in every epoch. In this way, the loss change in the training process can be incorporated into the learning progress and a closed-loop adaptive learning rate tuning mechanism can be constructed. Drastic changes in network parameters will deteriorate learning progress and even make the model non-converging, so the gain coefficient is designed based on the arctangent function with self-limiting properties. Because the learning rate is iteratively tuned with past loss-changing information, the trained model will have better performance. The test results on a wind turbine show that the LsAdam–LSTM model can obtain higher prediction accuracy with much fewer training epochs compared with Adam–LSTM, and the prediction accuracy has significant improvements compared with BP and SVR models.

Reliable wind power forecasting is essential for maintaining the safe and stable operation of power systems with high renewable energy penetration. This study proposes a short-term wind power forecasting model based on decomposition–optimization–prediction, integrating complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), the improved football team training algorithm (IFTTA), and the bidirectional long short-term memory network model (BiLSTM). CEEMDAN is employed to decompose the non-stationary wind power sequence into relatively stable intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), thereby separating multi-scale fluctuation features. The IFTTA incorporates a dynamic probability allocation strategy and an adaptive parameter adjustment mechanism, which contributes to a better balance between global exploration and local exploitation. After optimizing the hyperparameters of BiLSTM using IFTTA, the prediction performance significantly improved. Validations were conducted on three datasets from Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia, China, each containing 1440 samples (1152 for training and 288 for testing). Comparisons with the benchmark forecasting model demonstrate that the pro-posed model reduces the mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE) by at least 25.29%, 29.62%, and 20.66%, respectively. Correspondingly, the coefficient of determination (R2) was improved by at least 0.0069. This model provides an effective solution for short-term wind power prediction in practical engineering.

With the increasing penetration of wind power, how to accurately analyze characteristics of wind power becomes significant to the safe and stable operation of power system. This paper proposes a data-driven based wind power characteristic analysis and climbing identification method. Wind power climbing threshold is extracted firstly to construct climbing event dataset based on k-means clustering. 2D convolutional neural network-based climbing identification method is then proposed, with network parameters trained by transforming 1-dimensional wind power output records into a 2-dimensional matrix to identify future climbing events. Test results on practical wind farm show that the proposed method can effectively analyze characteristics of wind power, which has better climbing identification accuracy compared with traditional methods.

A short-term wind power prediction method is proposed in this paper with experimental results obtained from a wind farm located in Northeast China. In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction method using a traditional back-propagation (BP) neural network algorithm, the improved grey wolf optimization (IGWO) algorithm has been adopted to optimize its parameters. The performance of the proposed method has been evaluated by experiments. First, the features of the wind farm are described to show the fundamental information of the experiments. A single turbine with rated power of 1500 kW and power generation coefficient of 2.74 in the wind farm was introduced to show the technical details of the turbines. Original wind power data of the whole farm were preprocessed by using the quartile method to remove the abnormal data points. Then, the retained wind power data were predicted and analysed by using the proposed IGWO–BP algorithm. Analysis of the results proves the practicability and efficiency of the prediction model. Results show that the average accuracy of prediction is ~11% greater than the traditional BP method. In this way, the proposed wind power prediction method can be adopted to improve the accuracy of prediction and to ensure the effective utilization of wind energy. A short-term wind power prediction method is designed and tested with experimental results obtained from a wind farm located in Northeast China. In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction method, the improved grey wolf optimization algorithm has been adopted to optimize its parameters.

This study introduces a data augmentation technique based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) to improve the accuracy of day-ahead wind power predictions. To address the peculiarities of abrupt weather data, we propose a novel method for detecting mutation rates (MR) and local mutation rates (LMR). By analyzing historical data, we curated datasets that met specific mutation rate criteria. These transformed wind speed datasets were used as training instances, and using GAN-based methodologies, we generated a series of augmented training sets. The enriched dataset was then used to train the wind power prediction model, and the resulting prediction results were meticulously evaluated. Our empirical findings clearly demonstrate a significant improvement in the accuracy of day-ahead wind power prediction due to the proposed data augmentation approach. A comparative analysis with traditional methods showed an approximate 5% increase in monthly average prediction accuracy. This highlights the potential of leveraging mutated wind speed data and GAN-based techniques for data augmentation, leading to improved accuracy and reliability in wind power predictions. In conclusion, this paper presents a robust data augmentation method for wind power prediction, contributing to the potential enhancement of day-ahead prediction accuracy. Future research could explore additional mutation rate detection methods and strategies to further enhance GAN models, thereby amplifying the effectiveness of wind power prediction.

Under the background of the construction of “three types and two networks”, the introduction of a large number of heterogeneous intelligent terminals, ubiquitous open networks, interactive real-time control services and wide area interconnected power systems have transmitted the network security risks to all aspects of the power system. The security defense capability of power system is not only the superposition of security defense equipment, but also the excellent network security team. The continuous improvement of the level of network security is inseparable from the accumulation of network security attack and defense technology and practical experience, as well as practical tools and equipment with the characteristics of the power industry. In order to meet the increasingly severe security protection challenges, actively implement the security protection requirements of the power information system, ensure the safe and stable operation of the power system, build a network shooting range suited to the attributes of the power industry, and continuously improve the ability of network security protection, consolidate the foundation of digital transformation to ensure the safe and stable operation of power system and reliable power supply.The safe and stable operation of the information system needs to carry out comprehensive and in-depth vulnerability troubleshooting. In view of the lack of power business loophole mining and security event verification shooting range environment, this paper studies the power security shooting range construction technology.