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A Self-Learning Process Modeling Method to Optimize Upstream Operations

  • Oct 19, 2020
  • Ravikishan Guddeti +1 more
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Abstract

Abstract Upstream production optimization is concerned with optimizing the entire hydrocarbon value chain from reservoir to sales. In this quest, managing the process facilities to maximize productivity is a critical part. Traditionally, operating companies have addressed it by running offline scenarios to develop a playbook or build physics-based dynamic simulation models. However, a typical offshore facility undergoes significant changes to its operations during its life cycle, which makes the model management tedious and expensive. Few attempts have been made to build data-driven digital twins (machine learning) but they often lack the ability to provide explainable models and lack physical insights. In this work, we propose to use a fast, hybrid, self-learning dynamic process modeling method from routine plant measurements that can be used for real-time forecasts, scenario modeling, process optimization and control. A reduced order modeling method based on input-output dynamic mode decomposition (ioDMD) has been adapted to develop a dynamic process model based on historical data collected from plant sensors. First, we benchmarked the proposed approach with a dynamic simulation model (commercial simulator) using a designed input sequence for training. The ioDMD model simplifies the physical mechanisms to a low dimensional form. Next, we applied the method to an actual offshore deepwater facility based on plant measurements. In both cases, the ioDMD method provided very good predictions without any human intervention. Unlike black-box data-driven methods, the ioDMD method uses an interpretable approach that can be used to explain causal relationships. Observability and controllability of the proposed model can also be easily understood. The proposed ioDMD method provides a unique and sustainable way to combine advanced analytics and physics to develop an explainable dynamic model for the process facility that can be effectively used to assist operations in optimizing performance. The lightweight model lends itself naturally to fast computation that are required for optimization and process control (including IoT edge devices).

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