Advancing brain age estimation: normative deviation mapping (NDM) for sensitive detection of pathological aging.

Summary A meticulous interpretation of steady-state or unsteady-state relative permeability (Kr) experimental data is required to determine a complete set of Kr curves. In this work, different machine learning (ML) models were developed to assist in a faster estimation of these curves from steady-state drainage coreflooding experimental runs. These ML algorithms include gradient boosting (GB), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and deep neural network (DNN) with a main focus on and comparison of the two latter algorithms (XGB and DNN). Based on existing mathematical models, a leading-edge framework was developed where a large database of Kr and capillary pressure (Pc) curves were generated. This database was used to perform thousands of coreflood simulation runs representing oil-water drainage steady-state experiments. The results obtained from these simulation runs, mainly pressure drop along with other conventional core analysis data, were used to estimate analytical Kr curves based on Darcy’s law. These analytically estimated Kr curves along with the previously generated Pc curves were fed as features into the ML model. The entire data set was split into 80% for training and 20% for testing. The k-fold cross-validation technique was applied to increase the model’s accuracy by splitting 80% of the training data into 10 folds. In this manner, for each of the 10 experiments, nine folds were used for training and the remaining fold was used for model validation. Once the model was trained and validated, it was subjected to blind testing on the remaining 20% of the data set. The ML model learns to capture fluid flow behavior inside the core from the training data set. In terms of applicability of these ML models, two sets of experimental data were needed as input; the first was the analytically estimated Kr curves from the steady-state drainage coreflooding experiments, while the other was the Pc curves estimated from centrifuge or mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) measurements. The trained/tested model was then able to estimate Kr curves based on the experimental results fed as input. Furthermore, to test the performance of the ML model when only one set of experimental data is available to an end user, a recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithm was trained/tested to predict Kr curves in the absence of Pc curves as an input. The performance of the three developed models (XGB, DNN, and RNN) was assessed using the values of the coefficient of determination (R2) along with the loss calculated during training/validation of the model. The respective crossplots along with comparisons of ground truth vs. artificial intelligence (AI)-predicted curves indicated that the model is capable of making accurate predictions with an error percentage between 0.2% and 0.6% on history-matching experimental data for all three tested ML techniques. This implies that the AI-based model exhibits better efficiency and reliability in determining Kr curves when compared to conventional methods. The developed ML models by no means replace the need to conduct drainage coreflooding or centrifuge experiments but act as an alternative to existing commercial platforms that are used to interpret experimental data to predict Kr curves. The two main advantages of the developed ML models are their capability of predicting Kr curves within a matter of a few minutes as well as with limited intervention from the end user. The results also include a comparison between classical ML approaches, shallow neural networks, and DNNs in terms of accuracy in predicting the final Kr curves. The research presented here is an extension of the state-of-the-art framework proposed by Mathew et al. (2021). However, the two main aspects of the current study are the application of deep learning for the prediction of Kr curves and the application of feature engineering. The latter not only reduces the training/testing time for the ML models but also enables the end user to obtain the final predictions with the least set of experimental data. The various models discussed in this research work currently focus on the prediction of Kr curves for drainage steady-state experiments; however, the work can be extended to capture the imbibition cycle as well.

ObjectivesTo develop and identify machine learning (ML) models using pretreatment 2-deoxy-2-[18F]fluoro-D-glucose ([18F]-FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET)-based radiomic features to differentiate benign from malignant parotid gland diseases (PGDs).Materials and methodsThis retrospective study included 62 patients with 63 PGDs who underwent pretreatment [18F]-FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT). The lesions were assigned to the training (n = 44) and testing (n = 19) cohorts. In total, 49 [18F]-FDG-PET-based radiomic features were utilized to differentiate benign from malignant PGDs using five different conventional ML algorithmic models (random forest, neural network, k-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, and support vector machine) and the deep learning (DL)-based ensemble ML model. In the training cohort, each conventional ML model was constructed using the five most important features selected by the recursive feature elimination method with the tenfold cross-validation and synthetic minority oversampling technique. The DL-based ensemble ML model was constructed using the five most important features of the bagging and multilayer stacking methods. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and accuracies were used to compare predictive performances.ResultsIn total, 24 benign and 39 malignant PGDs were identified. Metabolic tumor volume and four GLSZM features (GLSZM_ZSE, GLSZM_SZE, GLSZM_GLNU, and GLSZM_ZSNU) were the five most important radiomic features. All five features except GLSZM_SZE were significantly higher in malignant PGDs than in benign ones (each p < 0.05). The DL-based ensemble ML model had the best performing classifier in the training and testing cohorts (AUC = 1.000, accuracy = 1.000 vs AUC = 0.976, accuracy = 0.947).ConclusionsThe DL-based ensemble ML model using [18F]-FDG-PET-based radiomic features can be useful for differentiating benign from malignant PGDs.Second abstractThe DL-based ensemble ML model using [18F]-FDG-PET-based radiomic features can overcome the previously reported limitation of [18F]-FDG-PET/CT scan for differentiating benign from malignant PGDs. The DL-based ensemble ML approach using [18F]-FDG-PET-based radiomic features can provide useful information for managing PGD.

This study focuses on using various machine learning (ML) models to evaluate the shear behaviors of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) beams reinforced with glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) bars. The main objective of the study is to predict the shear strength of UHPC beams reinforced with GFRP bars using ML models. We use four different ML models: support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (R.F.), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The experimental database used in the study is acquired from various literature sources and comprises 54 test observations with 11 input features. These input features are likely parameters related to the composition, geometry, and properties of the UHPC beams and GFRP bars. To ensure the ML models' generalizability and scalability, random search methods are utilized to tune the hyperparameters of the algorithms. This tuning process helps improve the performance of the models when predicting the shear strength. The study uses the ACI318M-14 and Eurocode 2 standard building codes to predict the shear capacity behavior of GFRP bars-reinforced UHPC I-shaped beams. The ML models' predictions are compared to the results obtained from these building code standards. According to the findings, the XGBoost model demonstrates the highest predictive test performance among the investigated ML models. The study employs the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to assess the significance of each input parameter in the ML models' predictive capabilities. A Taylor diagram is used to statistically compare the accuracy of the ML models. This study concludes that ML models, particularly XGBoost, can effectively predict the shear capacity behavior of GFRP bars-reinforced UHPC I-shaped beams.

Electroencephalogram-based machine learning models to predict neurologic outcome after cardiac arrest: A systematic review

Background This study aimed to establish and validate a machine learning (ML) model for predicting in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods This study collected data on CKD patients from 2008 to 2019 using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV. Six ML approaches were used to build the model. Accuracy and area under the curve (AUC) were used to choose the best model. In addition, the best model was interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Results There were 8527 CKD patients eligible for participation; the median age was 75.1 (interquartile range: 65.0–83.5) years, and 61.7% (5259/8527) were male. We developed six ML models with clinical variables as input factors. Among the six models developed, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model had the highest AUC, at 0.860. According to the SHAP values, the sequential organ failure assessment score, urine output, respiratory rate, and simplified acute physiology score II were the four most influential variables in the XGBoost model. Conclusions In conclusion, we successfully developed and validated ML models for predicting mortality in critically ill patients with CKD. Among all ML models, the XGBoost model is the most effective ML model that can help clinicians accurately manage and implement early interventions, which may reduce mortality in critically ill CKD patients with a high risk of death.

The introduction of various technologies in the context of Industry 4.0 allowed collecting monitoring data for various fields in manufacturing. Shop-floor and production data can be used for further analysis to extract knowledge. In this paper, an extensive evaluation of ten Machine Learning (ML) models for anomaly detection in manufacturing is conducted. The evaluation is conducted on multiple distinct ML algorithms, including conventional ML and a representative of Deep Neural Network (DNN) based algorithms. The ML models are trained on real production schedules to detect anomalous behavior in the overall system efficiency as well as violations in the delivery date of jobs. Multiple combinations of relevant features are tested during the training of the models. In essence, the objective of the ML models is to detect anomalous unknown breakdowns in the machines that lead to disruption in the overall performance of the system. The evaluation of the ML models is conducted on independent datasets with artificially injected machine breakdowns to establish the ground truth. These schedules with machine breakdowns are obtained through a simulation model. The results point to the high performance of a conventional ML algorithm, KNN. The performance demonstrated by a DNN-based AutoEncoder, conventional Local Outlier Factor-based Feature Bagging, and a recent Copula-Based Outlier Detection (COPOD) algorithms suggest limited applicability, which strongly depends on the shape of the data.

Shale caprocks, often organic-rich, play a significant role in hydrogen sequestration, but their wettability is typically altered from water-wet to H2-wet due to the organic matter, compromising their sealing performance. Silica nanofluids can restore water-wet conditions, which is vital for effective containment of H2 in geological formations. However, laboratory experiments to test the effects of nanomaterials on wettability and interfacial tension (IFT) are resource-intensive and time-consuming. To address this challenge, data-driven machine learning (ML) models offer a promising alternative, allowing for the prediction of key UHS parameters—such as advancing and receding contact angles without the need for extensive laboratory testing. We have applied multiple ML models, including gradient boosting, extreme gradient boosting (XGboost), Catboost, random forest, and extra trees to predict the wettability of organic rich shale samples treated with silica nanofluids. The ML models were trained on a comprehensive dataset generated through laboratory experiments conducted under a wide range of pressure (0.5 – 1600psi) and temperature (298-323 K) conditions, using brine (1 wt.% KCl + 2 wt.% NaCl) and varying silica nanofluid concentrations (0.05–1.0 wt.%). Advanced visualization techniques, including swarm maps, box plots, and heatmap plots, were utilized to analyze the experimental dataset thoroughly. To enhance the generalization capabilities of the ML models, we employed Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning, along with k-fold cross-validation and grid-search optimization techniques. Both statistical and graphical analyses were performed to show the reliability and performance of the models. The results demonstrated that the implemented ML models, particularly the XGboost and Catboost, accurately predicted the wettability behavior under various operating conditions. The training and testing average R² scores were above 0.998 and 0.949, respectively, confirming the high accuracy of the predictions. These findings highlight the reliability of the ML algorithms in predicting the complex interaction between shale, brine, and H2. Further investigation into the feature importance revealed that nanomaterials had the greatest influence on the wettability of the ternary system. The silica nanofluid concentrations played a key role in modifying wettability, with varying impacts on the receding contact angles, emphasizing the effect of nanomaterial treatment. The model's predictions were consistent with experimental results, suggesting that geological conditions, including pressure and temperature, have a profound influence on rock mineral wettability, directly impacting H2 geo-storage capacity. This study is the first to employ data-driven ML models to predict critical UHS parameters in organic-rich shales treated with silica nanofluids. The ability of the ML models to predict UHS parameters across a wide range of conditions provides a valuable tool for optimizing UHS system designs, offering a more efficient and scalable approach compared to traditional experimental methods.

Prediction of rockhead using a hybrid N-XGBoost machine learning framework

Introduction Spine trauma represents a major cause of disability and substantial healthcare costs. Despite classification systems and risk scores, outcome prediction following spine trauma remains challenging. Machine learning (ML) approaches offer multidimensionality but vary widely in methodology, performance, and clinical application. This systematic review aims to characterize the use of ML for outcome prediction and prognostication in spine trauma. Methods A systematic search of PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library was performed for publications from January 2015 to May 2025. Studies reporting ML for predicting clinical outcomes in spine trauma patients were identified using pre-defined criteria. Primary outcomes were types and performance metrics of ML models for spine trauma prognostication. Secondary outcomes included cost-effectiveness, clinical utility and implementation feasibility. Results Twenty-seven studies were included, of which 26 were published from 2020 onwards. Only one study was prospective, while the rest were retrospective. Commonly used ML algorithms for spine trauma prognosis were logistic regression (LR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and support vector machine (SVM). Outcomes predicted include mortality, neurological function or recovery, ambulation and walking, self-care and independence, complications, treatment failure, length of stay, and discharge destination. Most studies employed internal testing and validation; only four reported external validation. Seven studies reported direct comparison with non-ML models or risk scores, demonstrating comparable or superior performance of ML models. Performance metrics include area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, F1-score, Brier score, and others. The highest AUC was reported by a nomogram constructed using consensus clustering to predict postoperative pulmonary infection in patients with acute cervical spinal cord injury (internal validation; AUC 0.993; 95% CI 0.981–1.000). Quality of evidence varied between studies, but risk of bias was a concern. Conclusions Existing evidence on ML for spine trauma prognosis is characterized by retrospective study designs, homogeneous cohorts, and lack of external validation, limiting their generalizability and real-world application. While ML approaches demonstrate encouraging predictive performance for spine trauma outcomes, their clinical adoption is limited by methodological heterogeneity. More robust validation, standardized reporting, and comparison with traditional tools are needed before ML models can reliably inform clinical decision-making.

Wearable devices are becoming popular for health and activity monitoring. The machine learning (ML) models for these applications are trained by collecting data in a laboratory with precise control of experimental settings. However, during real-world deployment/usage, the experimental settings (e.g., sensor position or sampling rate) may deviate from those used during training. This discrepancy can degrade the accuracy and effectiveness of the health monitoring applications. Therefore, there is a great need to develop reliable ML approaches that provide high accuracy for real-world deployment. In this paper, we propose a novel statistical optimization approach referred as StatOpt that automatically accounts for the real-world disturbances in sensing data to improve the reliability of ML models for wearable devices. We theoretically derive the upper bounds on sensor data disturbance for StatOpt to produce a ML model with reliability certificates. We validate StatOpt on two publicly available datasets for human activity recognition. Our results show that compared to standard ML algorithms, the reliable ML classifiers enabled by the StatOpt approach improve the accuracy up to 50% in real-world settings with zero overhead, while baseline approaches incur significant overhead and fail to achieve comparable accuracy.

BackgroundBrain age prediction using machine learning (ML) models provides novel opportunities to characterize neurobiology of accelerated aging. Brain age gap, i.e., the gap between the predicted age and the chronological age for an individual, is a meaningful metric to assess accelerated or premature aging. Plasma neurofilament light (NfL) is a well‐recognized biomarker that can reflect the severity of structural atrophy and the loss of white matter integrity in Alzheimer's disease. Here, we leveraged an anatomically interpretable ML pipeline for brain age prediction (see ref. [1]) to investigate the correlations between brain age and plasma neurofilament light chain (NfL) in older adults in the ADNI cohort.MethodBrain age was derived from the cortical thickness measures (Desikan‐Killiany atlas, available online as part of the ADNI database) for 206 healthy individuals (HC), 372 individuals with MCI diagnosis, and 118 individuals with dementia diagnosis (AD). Further, contributions from individual brain regions to the predicted brain age were characterized for each individual. The amyloid status was available for all individuals and plasma NfL (within 30 days of the MRI scan acquisition) was available for a subset of individuals (Table 1). The ML model used to derive brain age had been trained on the healthy individuals from the OASIS‐3 dataset. We assessed the associations between brain age and plasma NfL for HC and the combined MCI and AD cohorts.ResultBrain age was significantly elevated in AD cohort with respect to HC cohort (Table 1, Figure 1). No significant differences were found between the brain age gap for amyloid positive and amyloid negative individuals (Figure 1). For HC cohort, brain age was positively correlated with plasma NfL in amyloid positive individuals (with brain age contributions from entorhinal region exhibiting the most significant positive correlation (ρ=0.72, p=2.45e‐6) with plasma NfL), but not amyloid negative individuals (Figure 2). In the combined MCI and AD cohort, brain age was correlated with plasma NfL in only amyloid positive individuals.ConclusionOur results suggest that amyloid status may mediate the association between plasma NfL and brain age in older individuals.[1] Sihag et al., Explainable Brain Age Prediction using coVariance Neural Networks, NeurIPS, 2023.

Performance investigation of osmotically assisted reverse osmosis using explainable machine learning models: A comparative study

The biological age of the brain differs from its chronological age (CA) and can be used as biomarker of neural/cognitive disease processes and as predictor of mortality. Brain age (BA) is often estimated from magnetic resonance images (MRIs) using machine learning (ML) that rarely indicates how regional brain features contribute to BA. Leveraging an aggregate training sample of 3 418 healthy controls (HCs), we describe a ridge regression model that quantifies each region's contribution to BA. After model testing on an independent sample of 651 HCs, we compute the coefficient of partial determination R¯p2 for each regional brain volume to quantify its contribution to BA. Model performance is also evaluated using the correlation r between chronological and biological ages, the mean absolute error (MAE ) and mean squared error (MSE) of BA estimates. On training data, r=0.92, MSE=70.94 years, MAE=6.57 years, and R¯2=0.81; on test data, r=0.90, MSE=81.96 years, MAE=7.00 years, and R¯2=0.79. The regions whose volumes contribute most to BA are the nucleus accumbens (R¯p2=7.27%), inferior temporal gyrus (R¯p2=4.03%), thalamus (R¯p2=3.61%), brainstem (R¯p2=3.29%), posterior lateral sulcus (R¯p2=3.22%), caudate nucleus (R¯p2=3.05%), orbital gyrus (R¯p2=2.96%), and precentral gyrus (R¯p2=2.80%). Our ridge regression, although outperformed by the most sophisticated ML approaches, identifies the importance and relative contribution of each brain structure to overall BA. Aside from its interpretability and quasi-mechanistic insights, our model can be used to validate future ML approaches for BA estimation.

Understanding the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) content over different climatic regions will enhance our knowledge of carbon gains and losses due to climatic change. However, little is known about the SOC content in the contrasting arid and sub-humid regions of Iran, whose complex SOC–landscape relationships pose a challenge to spatial analysis. Machine learning (ML) models with a digital soil mapping framework can solve such complex relationships. Current research focusses on ensemble ML models to increase the accuracy of prediction. The usual ensemble method is boosting or weighted averaging. This study proposes a novel ensemble technique: the stacking of multiple ML models through a meta-learning model. In addition, we tested the ensemble through rescanning the covariate space to maximize the prediction accuracy. We first applied six state-of-the-art ML models (i.e., Cubist, random forests (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), classical artificial neural network models (ANN), neural network ensemble based on model averaging (AvNNet), and deep learning neural networks (DNN)) to predict and map the spatial distribution of SOC content at six soil depth intervals for both regions. In addition, the stacking of multiple ML models through a meta-learning model with/without rescanning the covariate space were tested and applied to maximize the prediction accuracy. Out of six ML models, the DNN resulted in the best modeling accuracies, followed by RF, XGBoost, AvNNet, ANN, and Cubist. Importantly, the stacking of models indicated a significant improvement in the prediction of SOC content, especially when combined with rescanning the covariate space. For instance, the RMSE values for SOC content prediction of the upper 0–5 cm of the soil profiles of the arid site and the sub-humid site by the proposed stacking approaches were 17% and 9% respectively, less than that obtained by the DNN models—the best individual model. This indicates that rescanning the original covariate space by a meta-learning model can extract more information and improve the SOC content prediction accuracy. Overall, our results suggest that the stacking of diverse sets of models could be used to more accurately estimate the spatial distribution of SOC content in different climatic regions.

• ML models for predicting SCM concretes compressive strength developed • Multiple datasets devised from a global dataset were used for training • Multiple ML models used in conjunction with multiple datasets for best results • Accurate prediction results obtained for all SCM concrete types studied • Prediction uncertainty bounds established by conformal prediction analysis Supplementary cementitious materials (SCM) used as partial replacements of cement can reduce carbon emissions and construction costs. The amount and types of SCM used directly influence the compressive strength of concrete, which is a crucial indicator of concrete performance. However, predicting compressive strength is challenging for SCM-based concretes due to their complex compositions, especially when multiple types of SCM are used. This study used five machine learning (ML) models, namely artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), extra trees (ET), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) to predict the 28-day compressive strength of SCM concretes incorporating fly ash (FA), silica fume (SF), and ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS). Firstly, a global dataset comprising 1456 data points was organized into seven individual and six combined datasets for training of the five ML models. After this, the performances of the ML models’ predictions using individual and combined datasets were compared using root mean squared error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) to identify the optimal ML model-dataset configurations for each type of SCM-based concrete. It is found that in general, XGB models developed using the combined datasets demonstrated superior prediction accuracy, achieving an R² value exceeding 0.8. Both Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) and partial dependence plots (PDPs) were employed to illustrate the effects of input variables on compressive strength. Finally, uncertainty quantification using the Jackknife method combined with a normalized nonconformity measure was employed to provide accurate uncertainty bounds for compressive strength predictions.