Aircraft Altitude Prediction Using Mode C Measurements

This paper presents a simple yet efficient adaptive Kalman filter for tracking targets expected to perform varying turn maneuvers. The process noise covariance level of a second order Kalman filter is adjusted at each time step according to the calculated turn rate. The turning rate is estimated from the magnitude of the calculated acceleration divided by the estimated speed of the target. At each scan the previous and current velocity estimates are used to calculate the acceleration. The comparison of the performance of the proposed algorithm is made with that of an interacting multiple model (IMM) algorithm, employing three models with different levels of process noise covariance and also to that of a second order Kalman filter. Two different assumptions have been made for selecting the process noise values for the the IMM and Kalman filter algorithms, in the first case it was assumed that there was no prior information about the target motion whereas in the second case it was assumed that the largest turn rate that the target of interest could perform was known. The IMM algorithm utilizing three models gives slightly better estimates during the nonmaneuvering periods, but the proposed algorithm is superior to the IMM algorithm during maneuvering periods in terms of estimation errors. Also the proposed algorithm requires 78% less computation, almost the same number of calculations required by a single fixed process noise Kalman filter, than the IMM algorithm.

In this paper, we present an efficient filtering algorithm to perform accurate estimation in jump Markov nonlinear systems, in case of multi-target tracking. With this paper, we aim to contribute in solving the problem of model-based body motion estimation by using data coming from visual sensors. The interacting multiple model (IMM) algorithm is specially designed to track accurately targets whose state and/or measurement (assumed to be linear) models changes during motion transition. However, when these models are nonlinear, the IMM algorithm must be modified in order to guarantee an accurate track. In this paper we propose to avoid the extended Kalman filter because of its limitations and substitute it with the unscented Kalman filter which seems to be more efficient especially according to the simulation results obtained with the nonlinear IMM algorithm (IMM-UKF). To resolve the problem of data association, we propose to use a Fuzzy approach. The later is then combined with the IMM-UKF algorithm; the derived algorithm is called fuzzy-IMM-UKF.

The interacting multiple model (IMM) algorithm is specially designed to track accurately targets whose state and measurement models changes during motion transition. However, when these models are nonlinear, the IMM algorithm must be modified in order to guarantee an accurate track. Recently, the cubature Kalman filter (CKF) has been proposed to estimate the nonlinear system, and could perform better than unscented Kalman filter (UKF). In this paper, the IMM algorithm CKF based (IMM-CKF) is presented to track the maneuvering target using angular measurements. The simulation results demonstrate the improved performance of IMM-CKF over IMM-UKF, and the execution time of the former algorithm is shorter than the latter.

For multi-target tracking, the IMM (interactive multiple model) algorithm has been proposed. The IMM is expected to reduce tracking errors for both nonmaneuvering and maneuvering targets. However, the IMM requires a heavy computational burden, because it utilizes multiple Kalman filters in parallel. On the other hand, the Kalman filter with a turning acceleration estimator, which can adapt a maneuvering target, has been proposed. The Kalman filter with a turning acceleration estimator is a single two-stage type filter and has a problem of setting threshold for the maneuver detector. In this paper, we propose the hybrid filter with a constant-velocity (CV) filter and a turning acceleration estimation filter. The proposed filter does not require a maneuver detector, because it integrates the outputs of two filters using the likelihood of each filter. And its computational requirement is smaller than the IMM, since it consists of only two Kalman based filters. The proposed method can prevent deteriorating tracking accuracy by reducing the risk of maneuver misdetection when a target maneuvers. We evaluate the performance of the proposed filter by computer simulation, and show the effectiveness of the proposed filter, comparing with the conventional Kalman filter and the two-stage Kalman filter.

The interacting multiple model (IMM) algorithm is a widely accepted state estimation scheme for solving maneuvering target tracking problems, which are generally nonlinear. During the IMM filtering process, serious errors can arise when a Gaussian mixture of posterior probability density functions is approximated by a single Gaussian. Particle filters (PFs) are effective in dealing with nonlinearity and non-Gaussianity. This work considers an IMM algorithm that includes a constant velocity model, a constant acceleration model and a 3D turning rate (3DTR) model for tracking three-dimensional (3D) target motion, using various combinations of nonlinear filters. In existing literature on combining IMM and particle filtering techniques to tackle difficult target maneuvers, a PF is usually used in every model In comparison, simulation results show that by using a computationally economical PF in the 3DTR model and Kalman filters in the remaining models, superior performance can be achieved with significant reduction in computational costs.

Combining the interacting multiple model (IMM) and the unscented particle filter (UPF), a new multiple model filtering algorithm is presented. Multiple models can adapt to targets’ high maneuvering. Particle filter can deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) may improve the approximate accuracy. Compared with other interacting multiple model algorithms in the target tracking simulations, the results demonstrate the validity of the new filtering method, that is, particle filter with the UKF proposal.

An algorithm to estimate the tangential and normal accelerations directly using the Doppler radar measurement in an online closed loop form is proposed. Specific works are as follows: first, the tangential acceleration and normal acceleration are taken as the state variables to establish a linear state transition equation; secondly, the decorrelation unbiased conversion measurement Kalman filter (DUCMKF) algorithm is proposed to deal with the strongly nonlinear measurement equation; thirdly, the geometric relationship between the range rate and the velocity direction angle is used to obtain two estimators of the velocity direction angle; finally, the interactive multiple model (IMM) algorithm is used to fuse the estimators of the velocity direction angle and then the adaptive IMM of current statistical model based DUCMKF (AIMM-CS-DUCMKF) is proposed. The simulation experiment results show that the accuracy and stability of DUCMKF are better than the sequential extended Kalman filter algorithm, the sequential unscented Kalman filter algorithm, and converted measurement Kalman filter algorithms; on the other hand they show that the AIMM-CS-DUCMKF can obtain the high accuracy of the tangential and normal accelerations estimation algorithm.

Hybrid systems consist of both continuous state evolutions and discrete state (or mode) transitions. In many hybrid systems, mode transitions are governed by guard conditions that are dependent on the continuous state. These kind of mode transitions can be described by continuous-state-dependent mode transition probabilities. However, most multiple model Kalman filter based algorithms, such as the well-known interacting multiple model (IMM) algorithm, assume constant mode transition probabilities. We propose a hybrid estimation algorithm based on the IMM approach for the stochastic hybrid systems with continuous-state-dependent transitions. We first develop two models to describe the guard conditions for various stochastic hybrid systems. From the models of the guard conditions, we derive the corresponding continuous-state-dependent mode transition probabilities, which are expressed in terms of Gaussian probability density functions (pdfs) or Gaussian cumulative density functions (cdfs). We then propose a hybrid estimation algorithm for the stochastic hybrid systems based on the IMM algorithm. Like the IMM algorithm, our algorithm utilizes Gaussian distributions to represent the continuous state pdfs which are updated analytically at each time step. We also use analytical integration methods to reduce the computational cost of updating the mode probabilities. As a result, the proposed algorithm is computationally efficient and is applicable to high-dimensional problems. The performance of the proposed algorithm is illustrated with two examples in air traffic control tracking applications.

In many applications, the interacting multiple model (IMM) estimator provides better performance over the single model Kalman filter (KF). However, there are two high frequency surface wave radar (HFSWR) factors which seem to make the IMM estimator less attractive: Firstly, the radar has a very long integration time, up to a few hundred seconds for ship detection; Secondly, the radar has very limited detection capability of maneuvering targets. It is unknown whether the IMM estimator will perform better over an EKF for real time HFSWR. The purpose of this paper is to compare the EKF with the IMM estimator. An optimal noise level and critical value have been found for HFSWR EKF design. The results demonstrated that the IMM estimator does not yield improved performance.

Online displacement extraction and vibration detection based on interactive multiple model algorithm

This research aims at improving Detect and Avoid (DAA) functions in Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) using a Multiple Model Estimation algorithm to track maneuvering intruders. This research builds on previous work that used predefined aircraft encounter trajectories. An established encounter model generates the intruder trajectories while a multiple model algorithm is introduced to improve intruder dynamics estimation. A new method based on the Kalman prediction phase inside the Interactive Multiple Model (IMM) algorithm is presented to estimate time to closest point of approach, horizontal miss distance, and vertical separation. An analysis of the sensor error on the algorithm estimation and the sensor field of regard requirement from the Air-to-Air Radar Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) is performed. The efficiency of the trajectory estimation has direct implication on the estimation of the intruder trajectory in relation to the own aircraft. The methods described in this research can aid a certification authority in determining if a DAA system is sufficient for safely integration of UAS into the National Airspace System.

Control of the time between sawtooth crashes, necessary for ITER and DEMO, requires real-time detection of the moment of the sawtooth crash. In this paper, estimation of sawtooth crash times is demonstrated using the model-based interacting multiple model (IMM) estimator, based on simplified models for the sawtooth crash. In contrast to previous detectors, this detector uses the spatial extent of the sawtooth crash as detection characteristic. The IMM estimator is tuned and applied to multiple ECE channels at once. A model for the sawtooth crash is introduced, which is used in the IMM algorithm. The IMM algorithm is applied to seven datasets from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak. Five crash models with different mixing radii are used. All sawtooth crashes that have been identified beforehand by visual inspection of the data, are detected by the algorithm. A few additional detections are made, which upon closer inspection are seen to be sawtooth crashes, which show a partial reconnection. A closer inspection of the detected normal crashes shows that about 42% are not well fitted by any of the full reconnection models and show some characteristics of a partial reconnection. In some case, the measurement time is during the sawtooth crashes, which also results in an incorrect estimate of the mixing radius. For data provided at a sampling rate of 1 kHz, the run time of the IMM estimator is below 1 ms, thereby fulfilling real-time requirements.

Adaptive interacting multiple model for underwater maneuvering target tracking with one-step randomly delayed measurements

The Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) algorithm has been used in various applications with good performance. However, to the best of our knowledge, stability conditions of the IMM algorithm have not been shown in the control literature. This technical note presents a sufficient condition for the exponential stability of the IMM algorithm for a class of Markov jump linear systems. We derive a lower bound and an upper bound for the error covariances of the IMM algorithm, and then derive the stability condition by the Lyapunov approach.

Correct knowledge of noise statistics is essential for an effective estimator in maneuvering target tracking. In practice, however, the noise statistics are usually unknown or not perfectly known. To deal with the estimation problem in linear discrete-time systems with Markov jump parameters, where the measurement noise covariance is unknown, a novel approach is presented in this paper. This approach is based on the interacting multiple model (IMM) framework. An H ∞ filter is employed to construct a noise statistics estimator to obtain the information which is necessary for the IMM algorithm. In our approach, even the priori knowledge of noise statistics is not needed. The noise statistics loss problem is solved while the merits of IMM algorithm is reserved. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated in comparison with single-model H ∞ filter through Monte Carlo simulation for maneuvering target tracking.