Ambition setting through climate services to drive climate resilient development

Pathways for climate resilient development: Human well-being within a safe and just space in the 21st century

Climate services to support coastal municipalities in South Africa GERICS assists with climate services as it analyses climate change information to support coastal municipalities in South Africa, where planning and development are key to avoiding climate change risks in coastal cities. As coastal cities in the Western Indian Ocean and climate services are topics of research interest for GERICS, they work closely with municipalities on issues relating to climate change adaptation, looking at storm or flooding damage, long term risk preparation and innovation in climate-resilient development.

Countries in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) have made advances in socioeconomic development in recent years, but the challenge remains to ensure food and nutrition security, end hunger and poverty, and provide access to safe water and clean energy to a burgeoning population. Leaders in the region have committed to inclusive growth and climate resilient development as part of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Agenda 2030. Achieving these goals requires a multifaceted approach including integrated solutions; efficient and sustainable use of land, water, energy and ecosystems; strengthening upstream-downstream linkages; and increased regional and subregional coordination and connectivity. In response to these concerns, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) with the Government of India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW) and the Institute of Economic Growth (IEG) conducted a “Knowledge Forum on Climate Resilient Development in the Himalayan and Downstream Regions” on 16–17 June 2016 in New Delhi, India. As a multisector platform, the event brought practitioners, senior government officials, policy makers, experts, researchers and development workers together to deliberate on issues common to the HKH. Participants from Himalayan and downstream countries, including Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal discussed ideas and solutions to ensure food, water and energy security and how to promote climate resilient development. Through six themes, the conference delved into challenges, opportunities and integrated solutions linking science and policy for inclusive growth and climate resilient development.

We present an integrated information system needed to address the climate-water-migration-conflict nexus in the Congo Basin. It is based on a rigorous and multidisciplinary methodological approach that consists of designing appropriate tools for field surveys and data collection campaigns, data analysis, creating a statistical database and creating a web interface with the aim to make this information system publicly available for users and stakeholders. The information system developed is a structured and organized set of quantitative and qualitative data on the climate-water-migration-conflict nexus and gender, consisting of primary data collected during field surveys. It contains 250 aggregated variables or 575 disaggregated variables, all grouped into 15 thematic areas, including identification; socio-demographic characteristics; access to resources; perception of climate change; perception of migration; financial inclusion (savings, access to credit and circulation of money); domination and control on water resources, land ownership and property rights, conflict resolution and community resilience; water uses; vulnerability to climate change; housing, household assets and household expenditure; food security; health, hygiene and sanitation; environmental risk management; women’s economic autonomy; and water transfer from the Congo Basin to Lake Chad. The information system can be used to model and understand the interface of human-environment interactions, and develop scenarios necessary to address the challenges of climate change and resilient development, while supporting key policy areas and strategies to foster effective stakeholder participation to ensure management and governance of climate and natural resources in the Congo Basin.

As cities work towards becoming more resilient, they encounter a range of challenges related to adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development. Often, these challenges are addressed in silos, with efforts focusing either on isolated aspects or on just two of the three objectives at a time, leaving a truly integrated approach unmet. Climate Resilient Development Pathways (CRDP) aim to integrate adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development over time, taking into account (deep) uncertainties about climate change and other sources of uncertainty. These pathways support the integrated planning and execution of climate action, while maximising synergies and minimising trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development.A novel systematic approach has been developed to operationalise CRDP, using the well-established method for adaptation pathways, “Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP)”, as a starting point. This novel approach, CRDAPP, starts by envisioning multiple desirable futures and understanding the decision context and current policy objectives and actions for adaptation, mitigation and development. Thereafter, the synergies and trade-offs are assessed between the different climate actions, and policy relevant tipping points are identified – meaning points in time when new actions will be required. Next, alternative pathways are formulated of desirable actions for climate resilient development over time. The final outcome is a pathways map, as well as an implementation and monitoring plan.To date, the novel CRDAPP approach has only been applied qualitatively. In this study, we demonstrate how the approach can be used to develop semi-quantitative pathways co-created with the city of Logroño, Spain. Special focus is placed on showing how existing climate services and tools can support the development of CRDP with substantive quantitative scientific evidence, e.g. for identifying combined hotspots for climate risks and social vulnerability, or for understanding the effectiveness of different measures, both crucial aspects to develop CRDP. Tools for quantitatively evaluating the interactions between adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development objectives and measures are also explored for Logroño. However, we identify the development of tools and services that offer a quantitative assessment of these interactions as an area requiring further research, to progress towards fully quantified CRDP.Throughout the co-development process, the municipality of Logroño gained valuable insights into the range of options for achieving resilient urban futures over time, as well as strategies for sequencing measures in the context of climate change. The climate resilient development pathways provide helpful support to the municipality in advancing integrated climate action planning, aligning adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development efforts.

The aim of this chapter is to discuss the application of the public private partnership (P3) model as a contractual arrangement for financing climate smart infrastructure development in the Arab region, emphasizing the preconditions for implementation and the barriers and difficulties for its application. The methodology approach is based in a doctrinal analysis and desk-based survey of the scope and status of P3 implementation in the Arab region. Due to the scope of the study and the nature of the methodological approach, the survey, by no means, can be regarded as representative. However, since it is combined with the review of the literature, it builds a rough profile of the salient law and institutional barriers to P3 implementation in the Arab region. Larger studies can be undertaken at a later stage, provided that the necessary staff time and funding are available. The results indicate that the absence of P3 laws; lack of standardized contractual framework; absence of P3 institutions; and lack of human capacity are the main legal barriers that must be addressed if the P3 model is to enhance climate resilient infrastructure development in the Arab region. This chapter will be useful to academics and researchers interested in the topic of climate change adaptation in the Arab region.

Sea level rise due to climate change is an ongoing process that will continue for centuries and millennia. In response to this, France is increasingly considering sea level rise in its coastal risks and land use policies. Here, we show that despite real progress in coastal adaptation policies made so far, major challenges remain. We report progress regarding the consideration of ongoing erosion and flooding during storms, in particular owing to an evolving national regulation increasingly supporting the implementation of a nationally defined integrated coastal zones management strategy. Yet, chronic flooding at high-tides in ports and cities expected to emerge in the 2030s, as well as permanent flooding and shoreline retreat projected to take place within centuries without major protection works remain largely unaddressed to date. Major questions remain in terms of adaptation finance and other measures supporting coastal adaptation such as climate services. Finally, the topic of coastal adaptation lacks connections with the broader context of transformations needed to address climate change, biodiversity losses, and meet the sustainable development goals. The case of France exemplifies how an evolving adaptation planning, which takes decades to implement, can ultimately fall short of effectively addressing major transformational challenges and achieving climate resilient development. We argue that a clear and transparent public debate on climate change and the nature of solutions could help bridge the gap between ongoing adaptation and transformative measures in line with the challenges.

As the Vietnamese government continues to seek appropriate actions to move the national action on climate change forward, the emergence of grassroots sustainability initiatives has the potential to promote sustainability from the ground up. This paper reviews the current concepts of transformative learning (T-learning) and its importance through which some substantial linkages between T-learning and sustainability can be identified. It outlines the environmental changes in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, which appear to serve as “disorienting dilemmas” that force the local people to learn and gradually transform their behaviors and lifestyle choices to align with a lowcarbon and sustainable development. In an ideal T-learning approach, the major beneficiaries are the small-scale farmers, women, and ethnic groups (learners). They learn by doing under the supervision of educators (experts) in field-based schools that offer real-life experience and encourage learners to shift from traditional farming practices to modern, eco-friendly agricultural models that promote local economic self-reliance and biodiversity conservation. The paper sheds new light on how a critical approach to education for sustainable development through T-learning is an appropriate form and why T-learning should be acknowledged as an important part of the broader approach to self-help, climate resilient development in vulnerable communities.

The private sector is increasingly recognized as having important potential to help society adapt and become more resilient to climate change. Yet there is limited research examining how to promote and facilitate private sector adaptation in developing countries and in particular how governments can create an enabling environment to stimulate and incentivize domestic private sector adaptation. In this paper, we address this gap through a review of the key factors required to provide an enabling environment for the private sector denoted by existing adaptation literatures. We do this with a focus on adaptation by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). To advance this review, we draw insights from a much larger, yet generally independent, literature on enabling environments for private sector development. This literature disaggregates the private sector and highlights key constraints to the development and growth of SMEs in SSA, including deficient infrastructure and evidence of an African gap in access to and use of finance. Both areas of scholarship are then combined in a framework identifying key “building blocks” constituting enabling conditions for private sector adaptation. The framework could be applied in many ways including to focus strategies to enhance private sector adaptation and to identify trade‐offs and interactions between policies or initiatives surrounding private sector development. By combining these literatures, we call for a more holistic approach to develop enabling environments for SME adaptation and climate resilient development that addresses the broader structural deficits that condition vulnerability and barriers that limit adaptive capacity.This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation

Adaptation finance addresses the effects of climate variability and change on development and physical insecurity. Yet, adaptation has proven difficult to systematically measure and assess, resulting in a lack of coherent and comparable evidence to learn about good adaptation practice. Measurement has become even more challenging since the integration of resilience into policy framings. Measuring climate resilience requires evidence of resistance to, and recovery from, shocks and stresses. But resilience of what, to what seldom guides the design of assessments. Researchers tend to use proxy indicators and aggregated units of analysis that cloud the relationships under study, and crucially, leave unclear the interactions between climate and development. This viewpoint documents these common barriers to progress in the field. It then outlines two methods for practitioners and researchers to link climate shocks and stresses to climate-sensitive development outcomes as a key first step to research and evaluation design. Both methods enable prediction of expected levels of development outcomes, given the extent of climate shocks and stresses, which is then comparable with actual levels achieved under climate resilience interventions. The product is standardized and comparable metrics to learn about the performance of climate adaptation policymaking and resilient development programming.

Climate Resilient Development Pathways (CRDP) is a promising concept for cities to integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation to achieve sustainable development for all. Although CRDP aims to leverage synergies and co-benefits while limiting trade-offs between a city’s many objectives, there is no framework or approach for planning and implementing CRDP. A structured approach is needed to move from theory to practice. In this perspective paper, we outline three functional elements, or building blocks, for a CRDP planning framework. The building blocks are (1) identifying and evaluating interactions between adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development, (2) addressing time and uncertainty in planning, and (3) delivering specialized information for CRDP. These building blocks are informed by practice, drawing lessons from literature on recent efforts to integrate climate adaptation and mitigation in European cities, and from our experiences with adaptive pathways planning and climate services development. As cities and scholars are turning their attention to CRDP planning, the building blocks can help focus priority areas for development, informed by practice.

The Summary for Urban Policymakers (SUP) initiative provides a distillation of the IPCC reports into accessible and targeted summaries that can help inform action at city and regional scales. Volume I in the series, What the Latest Physical Science of Climate Change Means for Cities, identified the ways in which human-induced climate change is affecting every region of the world, and the cities and urban areas therein. Volume II, Climate Change in Cities and Urban Areas: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, assessed the feasibility and effectiveness of different adaptation options. To achieve climate resilient development, synergies between policies and actions for climate change adaptation, mitigation and other development goals are needed. This third volume in the series, What the Latest Science on Climate Change Mitigation Means For Cities and Urban Areas offers a concise and accessible distillation of the IPCC Working Group III Report for urban policymakers. The 21st century is characterized by a rapidly growing urban population, urban land expansion and associated rise in demand for resources, infrastructure and services. These trends are expected to drive the growth in emissions from urban consumption and production through 2100, although the rate of urban emissions growth will depend on the type of urbanisation and the speed and scale of mitigation action implemented. Aggressive and ambitious policies for transition towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions can be implemented in cities and urban areas, while contributing to sustainable development. Ultimately, mitigation action and adaptation are interdependent processes, and pursuing these actions together can promote sustainable development.

In topographically diverse highland terrain, socio-economic and environmental conditions can vary dramatically over relatively short distances. This presents a challenge for climate resilient development strategies, as exposure to climate variability and change, climate impacts, and adaptive capacity differ between communities located within common cultural and administrative units. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) offers a tool to assess climate vulnerability through direct household surveys. This makes it particularly appropriate for analyses at sub-community and community scales. Here we apply the LVI-IPCC to communities of Choke Mountain, located in the Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia. Recognizing the physiographic and climatic diversity that exists in this mountainous environment, we implement LVI-IPCC analysis for 793 mixed crop-livestock farming households using the five distinct agroecological systems (AES) that compose the populated area of Choke Mountain as a framework for analysis. For each AES, an LVI index, adaptive capacity metric, and LVI-IPCC vulnerability score was calculated. We found that each of these metrics varied systematically across AES. High elevation sloping lands and low elevation steep lands exhibited relatively low adaptive capacity and high vulnerability while midland AES had higher capacity and lower vulnerability. These results suggest that resilience building interventions for Choke Mountain ecosystems should be targeted to address the specific circumstances of each AES. The approach of applying LVI-IPCC at AES scale could be applicable to other climate vulnerable mountainous regions.

Central America in dire need of inclusive climate resilient development with support from the international community

The Himalayan region is a source of ten major river systems that together provide irrigation, power and drinking water for 1.3 billion people i.e. over 20% of the world’s population. The supply and quality of water in this region is under extreme threat, both from the effects of human activity and from natural processes and variation [1]. Population growth is already putting massive pressure on regional water resources, affecting water resource in terms of demand, water-use patterns and management practices. The change in hydrological cycle may affect river flows, agriculture, forests, biodiversity and health besides creating water related hazards [2]. The need for suitable strategies for climate resilient development has policy and governance implications [3]. Adaptation to climate change is the area that should be strength‐ ened through policy advocacy supported by evidence through rigorous research and verified information.