An Application of Generalized Entropy Optimization Methods in Survival Data Analysis

In this paper, we propose a fast and versatile blind source separation including closed-form estimation of sources' probability density functions (PDFs), where the ICA's activation function is automatically adapted to various noise conditions. In the proposed method, closed-form second-order ICA and closed-form PDF estimation are introduced as a computational-cost-efficient preprocessing to extract sources' PDFs. Compared with various type of conventional ICAs, e.g., fixed activation-function type and ML-based type, our proposed algorithm can give a faster and higher convergence. Experimental assessment reveals that the proposed method is versatile for handling non-speech sound sources.

The non-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation caused by intermittently blocking of the direct path between the base station and the mobile station is the main difficulty for mobile user location in cellular wireless communication system. So it is indispensable to investigate the techniques about the NLOS error identification and correction. In this paper, we suggest a robust and accurate approach using probability density function (PDF) estimator to identify the NLOS situation, and then an improved biased Kalman filter which depends on PDF estimator as the nonlinearity weighting coefficient in recursive operation is used to mitigate the NLOS error for time of arrival (TOA) measurements. As the PDF estimator is calculated from actual TOA samples, it is adaptive for the complex practical NLOS environments. The simulation results also indicate that with the less prior information about communication environments, the approach we present has a good location performance even in severe NLOS situations.

The error estimate of Borgonovo's moment-independent index δi is considered, and it shows that the possible computational complexity of δi is mainly due to the probability density function (PDF) estimate because the PDF estimate is an ill-posed problem and its convergence rate is quite slow. So it reminds us to compute Borgonovo's index using other methods. To avoid the PDF estimate, δi, which is based on the PDF, is first approximatively represented by the cumulative distribution function (CDF). The CDF estimate is well posed and its convergence rate is always faster than that of the PDF estimate. From the representation, a stable approach is proposed to compute δi with an adaptive procedure. Since the small probability multidimensional integral needs to be computed in this procedure, a computational strategy named asymptotic space integration is introduced to reduce a high-dimensional integral to a one-dimensional integral. Then we can compute the small probability multidimensional integral by adaptive numerical integration in one dimension with an improved convergence rate. From the comparison of numerical error analysis of some examples, it can be shown that the proposed method is an effective approach to uncertainty importance measure computation.

Probability density function (PDF) estimation is a fundamentally important problem for statistical pattern recognition. Independent component analysis (ICA) can be applied to the feature vectors so that the PDF estimation of a high dimensional vector can be converted to the PDF estimation of several 1-dimensional variables. However in practice we find that this PDF is in poor generalization ability for pattern classification because of the implied noise. Hence, this paper proposes an improvement of ICA based PDF estimation method. A latent variable model is built to separate the noise from the feature vector so that the pattern information and the noise can be dealt with respectively. Based on the latent variable model, a modified ICA based PDF is deduced. The validity of our proposed method is demonstrated by the experiments of off-line handwritten numeral recognition.

Background and purposeThe study evaluated the differences in leaf positioning deviations by the log files of three advanced accelerators with two delivery techniques, and established specific assessment parameters of leaf positioning deviations for different types of accelerators.MethodsA total of 420 treatment plans with 5 consecutive treatment log files were collected from the Trilogy, TrueBeam and Halcyon accelerators. Millennium MLC was equipped on the Trilogy and TrueBeam accelerators. A jawless design and dual-layer MLC were adopted on the Halcyon accelerator. 70 IMRT and 70 VMAT plans were selected randomly on each accelerator. The treatment sites of all plans included head and neck, chest, breast, pelvis and other sites. The parsing tasks for 2100 log files were proceeded by SunCheck software from Sun Nuclear Corporation. The maximum leaf root mean square (RMS) errors, 95th percentile errors and percentages of different leaf positioning errors were statistically analyzed. The correlations between these evaluation parameters and accelerator performance parameters (maximum leaf speed, mean leaf speed, gantry and arc angle) were analyzed.ResultsThe average maximum leaf RMS errors of the Trilogy in the IMRT and VMAT plans were 0.44 ± 0.09 mm and 0.79 ± 0.07 mm, respectively, which were higher than the TrueBeam's 0.03 ± 0.01 mm, 0.03 ± 0.01 mm and the Halcyon's 0.05 ± 0.01 mm, 0.07 ± 0.01 mm. Similar data results were shown in the 95th percentile error. The maximum leaf RMS errors were strongly correlated with the 95th percentile errors (Pearson index > 0.5). The leaf positioning deviations in VMAT were higher than those in IMRT for all accelerators. In TrueBeam and Halcyon, leaf position errors above 1 mm were not found in IMRT and VMAT plans. The main influencing factor of leaf positioning deviation was the leaf speed, which has no strong correlation with gantry and arc angles.ConclusionsCompared with the quality assurance guidelines, the MLC positioning deviations tolerances of the three accelerators should be tightened. For both IMRT and VMAT techniques, the 95th percentile error and the maximum RMS error are suggested to be tightened to 1.5 and 1 mm respectively for the Trilogy accelerator. In TrueBeam and Halcyon accelerators, the 95th percentile error and maximum RMS error of 1 and 0.5 mm, respectively, are considered appropriate.

BackgroundThe multileaf collimator (MLC) is a critical component to accurate intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) delivery. This study examined MLC positional accuracy via MLC logs from Varian machines from six institutions and three delivery techniques to evaluate typical positional accuracy and treatment and mechanical parameters that affect accuracy. Typical accuracy achieved was compared against TG-142 recommendations for MLC performance; more appropriate recommendations are suggested.MethodsOver 85,000 Varian MLC treatment logs were collected from six institutions and analyzed with FractionCHECK. Data were binned according to institution and treatment type to determine overall root mean square (RMS) and 95th percentile error values, and then to look for correlations between those errors and with mechanical and treatment parameters including mean and maximum leaf speed, gantry angle, beam-on time, mean leaf error, and number of segments.ResultsResults of treatment logs found that leaf RMS error and 95th percentile leaf error were consistent between institutions, but varied by treatment type. The step and shoot technique had very small errors: the mean RMS leaf error was 0.008 mm. For dynamic treatments the mean RMS leaf error was 0.32 mm, while volumetric-modulated arc treatment (VMAT) showed an RMS leaf error of 0.46 mm. Most MLC leaf errors were found to be well below TG-142 recommended tolerances. For the dynamic and VMAT techniques, the mean and maximum leaf speeds were significantly linked to the leaf RMS error. Additionally, for dynamic delivery, the mean leaf error was correlated with RMS error, whereas for VMAT the average gantry speed was correlated. For all treatments, the RMS error and the 95th percentile leaf error were correlated.ConclusionsRestricting the maximum leaf speed can help improve MLC performance for dynamic and VMAT deliveries. Furthermore, the tolerances of leaf RMS and error counts for all treatment types should be tightened from the TG-142 values to make them more appropriate for clinical performance. Values of 1 mm for the 95th percentile of leaf RMS error and 1.5 mm for the 95th percentile leaf error are suggested as action levels for all treatment types.

Multivariate online kernel density estimation with Gaussian kernels

Among the Earth Observation (EO) instruments used in environmental and agricultural applications, the SPOT4-VEGETATION (SPOT4-VGT) instrument allows daily monitoring of terrestrial vegetation cover through remote sensing, at regional and global levels. The characterization of the geometric and radiometric performances of remote sensing data and their temporal stability play an important role in the analysis of EO images and are essential in environmental and agricultural monitoring applications. The validation and characterization of the SPOT4-VGT image geometric performances and temporal stability are investigated in this letter. Three time series of data acquired during 1999, 2000 and 2001 were used for this purpose. These images were downlinked by several VGT L-band receiving stations and processed by the SPACE-VGT software. From analyses made, it can be concluded that the geometric characteristics of the VGT L-band images agree with the VGT International User Committee requirements: the multispectral registration has a root mean square (RMS) error in the range of 0.25±0.17 pixels for B2, B3 and MIR bands, and 0.48±0.21 pixels for B0 band; the multi-temporal registration has a RMS error in the range of 0.38±0.23 pixels; and the absolute geo-location has a RMS error in the range of ±660 m.

OPINION article Front. Physiol., 22 January 2014Sec. Integrative Physiology Volume 4 - 2013 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2013.00403

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women and the leading cause of cancer-related death in Indonesia. Analysis of survival data is important for improving the treatment and care of breast cancer patients. This study aims to estimate the parameters, find the survival function, and hazard function of breast cancer patients using a parametric method with an exponential distribution. Previous studies have shown that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method is suitable for estimating the survival function from exponential survival data by censoring. In this study, the exponential distribution was found to be the best for data on breast cancer patients from Surabaya Ontology Hospital. The estimated parameters are θ = 33.9157, and the survival function is calculated using The estimated hazard function for patient death or failure is 0.0295. The results of this study can contribute to the development of better treatment and care strategies for breast cancer patients. However, further research is needed because this study only used monthly time units.

The aim of the present research is to calculate the Relative Accuracy (R.A) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for the location of Technical Institute, Mosul in Nineveh Governorate, Iraq. at the northern part of Mosul city by using surveying Instruments (GPS 1230 , Total Station 06 & Level NAK2), to calculate the coordinates and elevations of (16) Ground Control Points which covered the study area. The field data, remote sensing techniques and GIS software (Arc Map GIS10.3) are used to check the digital map of study area that helped the administrator to take the correct decision, determining positions of the future expansionist for buildings, roads, measuring lengths, areas and there coordinates, directions as well as the total costs estimation needed for any development from the final map. The gradient percentage between the highest and lowest points is calculated to be (9.954%). Relative accuracy for the based measured points (R.A) = 1:60000), and Root Mean Square error in Easting coordinates (RMSE) = ± 0.102m, in Northing coordinates (RMSN) = ± 0.096m, the Root Mean Square for the resultant (RMSR) = ± 0.099m, and Root Mean Square for Elevations ( RMSRL)= ± 0.005m. We Matched and correlated (10) measured points from study area with their graphic data positions on the aerial photo, determining the offsets for position and elevations as follows: (RMSE = ± 0.076m), (RMSN = ± 0.125m), (RMSR = ± 0.088m), and (Root Mean Square for Elevations = RMSRL= ± 0.045m). This research enable us after checking the results to produce new maps from Aerial photograph or Digital Image to use it for land uses and future extensions in whole study area.

Haze caused by forest and land fires is a serious problem in South Sumatra Province. One mitigation effort that can be made is to improve the accuracy of rainfall predictions, because rain plays an important role in reducing the potential for fires. This study implements machine learning methods, namely XGBoost and ConvLSTM, to predict spatiotemporal rainfall in areas prone to haze. The results show that ConvLSTM is capable of providing better predictions than the baseline, especially during periods of haze, by considering missing data imputation and masking techniques for disrupted satellite conditions. Increasingly apparent climate change in tropical regions has had a significant impact on rainfall patterns, particularly in South Sumatra, which is one of Indonesia's main agricultural and plantation centers. High rainfall variability can lead to the risk of flooding and drought, as well as disrupting productivity in the education, health, and economic sectors. Therefore, a more accurate rainfall prediction approach is needed to support climate adaptation planning and disaster risk mitigation. This study aims to compare the performance of three approaches to daily rainfall prediction, namely the ConvLSTM-based method, XGBoost, and Persistence, using daily observation data from BMKG for the South Sumatra region for the period 1981–2020. The input variables include average air temperature (Tavg), humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed, while rainfall is used as the prediction target. The analysis was conducted through a time series approach, statistical distribution, and model performance evaluation using the quantitative metrics Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Critical Success Index (CSI). The results show that the ConvLSTM model produced the highest accuracy with an average RMSE of 10 mm/day and a CSI of 0.53, which is better than XGBoost (RMSE 12 mm/day; CSI 0.48) and the persistence method (RMSE 15 mm/day; CSI 0.40). Distribution analysis indicates that light to moderate rainfall occurs more frequently, while extreme rainfall occurs sporadically. The correlation heatmap shows that rainfall has a moderate positive relationship with humidity and a negative relationship with solar radiation, while average temperature and wind play a smaller role. The main contribution of this study is to provide empirical evidence that spatiotemporal deep learning methods such as ConvLSTM are superior in modeling the complexity of tropical rainfall dynamics compared to classical machine learning approaches and simple models. These findings can serve as a basis for the development of early warning systems and interactive climate dashboards at the regional level, while enriching the literature on rainfall prediction in tropical regions using an integrative approach.

Gamma frailty model for survival risk estimation: an application to cancer data

The aim of this study was to determine the best probability distributions for calculating the maximum annual daily precipitation with the specific probability of exceedance (Pmaxp%). The novelty of this study lies in using the peak-weighted root mean square error (PWRMSE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2) for assessing the fit of empirical and theoretical distributions. The input data included maximum daily precipitation records collected in the years 1971–2014 at 51 rainfall stations from the Upper Vistula Basin, Southern Poland. The value of Pmaxp% was determined based on the following probability distributions of random variables: Pearson’s type III (PIII), Weibull’s (W), log-normal, generalized extreme value (GEV), and Gumbel’s (G). Our outcomes showed a lack of significant trends in the observation series of the investigated random variables for a majority of the rainfall stations in the Upper Vistula Basin. We found that the peak-weighted root mean square error (PWRMSE) method, a commonly used metric for quality assessment of rainfall-runoff models, is useful for identifying the statistical distributions of the best fit. In fact, our findings demonstrated the consistency of this approach with the RMSE goodness-of-fit metrics. We also identified the GEV distribution as recommended for calculating the maximum daily precipitation with the specific probability of exceedance in the catchments of the Upper Vistula Basin.

Full text Figures and data Side by side Abstract Editor's evaluation Introduction Materials and methods Results Discussion Data availability References Decision letter Author response Article and author information Metrics Abstract Background: Oxygen uptake (VO2) is one of the most important measures of fitness and critical vital sign. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is a valuable method of assessing fitness in sport and clinical settings. There is a lack of large studies on athletic populations to predict VO2max using somatic or submaximal CPET variables. Thus, this study aimed to: (1) derive prediction models for maximal VO2 (VO2max) based on submaximal exercise variables at anaerobic threshold (AT) or respiratory compensation point (RCP) or only somatic and (2) internally validate provided equations. Methods: Four thousand four hundred twenty-four male endurance athletes (EA) underwent maximal symptom-limited CPET on a treadmill (n=3330) or cycle ergometer (n=1094). The cohort was randomly divided between: variables selection (nrunners = 1998; ncyclist = 656), model building (nrunners = 666; ncyclist = 219), and validation (nrunners = 666; ncyclist = 219). Random forest was used to select the most significant variables. Models were derived and internally validated with multiple linear regression. Results: Runners were 36.24±8.45 years; BMI = 23.94 ± 2.43 kg·m−2; VO2max=53.81±6.67 mL·min−1·kg−1. Cyclists were 37.33±9.13 years; BMI = 24.34 ± 2.63 kg·m−2; VO2max=51.74±7.99 mL·min−1·kg−1. VO2 at AT and RCP were the most contributing variables to exercise equations. Body mass and body fat had the highest impact on the somatic equation. Model performance for VO2max based on variables at AT was R2=0.81, at RCP was R2=0.91, at AT and RCP was R2=0.91 and for somatic-only was R2=0.43. Conclusions: Derived prediction models were highly accurate and fairly replicable. Formulae allow for precise estimation of VO2max based on submaximal exercise performance or somatic variables. Presented models are applicable for sport and clinical settling. They are a valuable supplementary method for fitness practitioners to adjust individualised training recommendations. Funding: No external funding was received for this work. Editor's evaluation The authors have established new formulas to predict maximum oxygen uptake for cyclists and runners based on submaximal exercise testing and anthropometric characteristics. This is an important study with a large and comprehensive dataset, which may be helpful for many exercise labs. The work is convincing, using appropriate and validated methodology in line with the current state-of-the-art, as shown by references to common exercise books. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.86291.sa0 Decision letter Reviews on Sciety eLife's review process Introduction The oxygen uptake (VO2) is considered an important metric in assessing cardiorespiratory fitness, health status, or endurance performance potential (Guazzi et al., 2012). With the application of standardised procedures and interpretation protocols, during graded exercise tests (GXT), the (maximal oxygen uptake) VO2max can be established (Bentley et al., 2007). GXT is the most widely used assessment to examine the dynamic relationship between exercise and integrated physiological systems (Albouaini et al., 2007; Bentley et al., 2007). The information from GXT during cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) can be applied across the spectrum of sport performance, occupational safety screening, research, and clinical diagnostics (Guazzi et al., 2017). VO2 max is often used as a boundary between severe and extreme intensity domains and by definition requires maximal effort from the tested subject (Gaesser and Poole, 1996). However, it is not always recommended or possible to undertake a test to exhaustion (Guazzi et al., 2012). For the athletes, the proximity of competition or injury history can allow submaximal testing, but not testing to exhaustion (Sassi et al., 2006). Testing that requires maximal effort may be disruptive to the training process or interfere with race performance (Coutts et al., 2007; Lamberts et al., 2011). Due to practical constraints, tests to exhaustion or peak-power-output tests are often performed only two or three times a year (Coutts et al., 2007). However, VO2 values are widely used in sport science and the decision-making process (Mann et al., 2013). VO2 is widely considered one of the major endurance performance determinants (Joyner and Coyle, 2008). Using VO2max to guide the selection process, prescribing training intensity, assessing training adaptations, or predicting race times is a common practice in high-performance sports (Bassett and Howley, 2000; Bentley et al., 2007; Hawley and Noakes, 1992; Noakes et al., 1990). VO2max is also one of the critical vital signs coordinating the function of the cardiovascular, respiratory, and muscular systems, it is an indicator of overall body health status (Kaminsky et al., 2017). Quantifying VO2max provides additional input regarding clinical decision-making, risk stratification, evaluation of therapy, and physical activity guidelines (Guazzi et al., 2012). For patients undertaking a test to exhaustion is rarely needed or possible due to health restraints or cardiac risk (Guazzi et al., 2016). For many years researchers have studied indirect methods of estimating VO2max(Sartor et al., 2013). Protocols such as the Astrand-Ryhming Test, Six-Minute Walk Test, or YMCA Step Test have been established and validated (Astrand and Ryhming, 1954; Beutner et al., 2015; Carey, 2022; Jalili et al., 2018). Moreover, estimation of the VO2 and heart rate (HR) values below the ventilatory threshold can be based on cardiorespiratory kinetics assessment using randomised changes in the work rate known as a pseudo-random binary sequences testing (Hoffmann et al., 2022). However, with the development of technology, the accessibility of laboratory testing and mobile testing improved (Montoye et al., 2020; Pritchard et al., 2021). Therefore, new opportunities to develop more precise yet simple and accessible methods and models to assess VO2max occur (Jurov et al., 2023). This appears to be especially important considering the low prediction accuracy of most of the VO2max formulae that were validated in our previous study (Wiecha et al., 2023). Recently, we have been observing the development of prediction methods with the usage of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) (Ashfaq et al., 2022). Both ML and AI are used in sport science as forecasting and decision-making support tools (Abut and Akay, 2015; Bobowik and Wiszomirska, 2022; Chmait and Westerbeek, 2021; Hammes et al., 2022; Rossi et al., 2021). There is growing evidence that VO2max prediction based on ML models, especially support vector ML and artificial neural network models, exhibits more robust and accurate results compared to MLR only (Abut and Akay, 2015; Ashfaq et al., 2022). Therefore, in this research, with the support of ML, we look for algorithms and prediction patterns that allow us to use values obtained during submaximal CPET and somatic measurements to estimate maximal VO2max values in male runners and cyclists. We stipulate that prediction models allow for accurate calculation of VO2max based on somatic or submaximal CPET variables. Materials and methods We have applied the development and validation of the prediction TRIPOD guidelines to conduct the study (see Supplementary Material 1TRIPOD Checklist for Prediction Model Development and Validation) (Collins et al., 2015). The study is based on retrospective data analysis from the CPET registry collected from 2013 to 2021 at the medical clinic (Sportslab, Warsaw, Poland). All CPET have been performed at the individual request of participants, as a part of regular training monitoring or performance assessment. Ethical approval Request a detailed protocol The Institutional Review Board of the Bioethical Committee at the Medical University of Warsaw (AKBE/32/2021) has approved the study protocol. The regulations of the Declaration of Helsinki were met during all parts of the study. Each study participant delivered written consent to undergo CPET and participate in the study. Derivation cohort Request a detailed protocol We selected the cohort with the use of rigorous exclusion/inclusion criteria. Due to the insufficient number of women in our database and the number of potential variables in the regression models for adequate power, we had to limit ourselves to conduct analysis in the male population only (Martens and Logan, 2021). Out of 6439 healthy, adult male cyclists and long-distance runners that undergone CPET, 4423 met the criteria as further: (1) age ≥18 years, (2) declared regular cycling or running training for ≥3 months, (3) had no extreme outliers ≤ or ≥±3 standard deviations (SD) from mean for all of the testing variables (beyond ≥±3 SD in VO2max), (4) lack of any injury, medical condition, or addiction in medical history that may affect exercise capacity, (5) not taking any medications with a modifying effect on exercise capacity, (6) maximum exertion achieved during CPET. We defined the maximum exertion in CPET as the fulfilment of the minimum six of the following criteria: (1) respiratory exchange ratio (RER) ≥1.10, (2) present VO2 plateau (growth <100 mL·min–1 in VO2 despite increased running speed or cycling power), (3) respiratory frequency (fR) ≥45 breaths·min–1, (4) declared subjective exertion intensity during CPET ≥18 in the Borg scale (Borg, 1970), (5) blood lactate concentration [La-]b ≥8 mmol·L–1, (6) growth in speed/power ≥10% of respiratory compensation point (RCP) values after exceeding the RCP, (7) peak heart rate (HRpeak) ≥15 beats·min–1 below predicted maximal heart rate (HRmax) (Lach et al., 2021). Participants’ selection procedure has been shown in Figure 1. Figure 1 Download asset Open asset Flowchart of the preliminary inclusion and exclusion process. Abbreviations: EA, endurance athlete; CPET, cardiopulmonary exercise testing; SD, standard deviation; TE, treadmill; RER, respiratory exchange ratio; VO2, oxygen uptake (mL·min−1·kg−1); [La−]b, lactate concentration (mmol·L−1); fR, breathing frequency (breaths·min−1); RCP, respiratory compensation point; HRpeak, peak heart rate (beats·min−1); HRmax, maximal heart rate (bpm). At both stages of the selection, some participants met several (>1) exclusion criteria. Somatic measurements and CPET protocols Request a detailed protocol Body mass was measured with a body composition (BC) analyser (Tanita, MC 718, Japan) with the multifrequency of 5 kHz/50 kHz/250 kHz via the bioimpedance analysis and normal testing mode. The participants’ skin was cleaned with alcohol before placing the electrodes on the skin. Prior to the test, the participants received instructions to refrain from exercising for 2 hr, consume a light meal rich in carbohydrates 2–3 hr beforehand, and maintain hydration by drinking isotonic beverages. Additionally, they were advised to abstain from medications, caffeine, and cigarettes on the day of the test. Running CPET (TE) was performed on a mechanical treadmill (h/p/Cosmos Quasar, Germany). Cycling CPET (CE) was performed on Cyclus-2 (RBM elektronik-automation GmbH, Leipzig, Germany). Hans Rudolph V2 mask (Hans Rudolph, Inc, Shawnee, KS, USA), breath-by-breath method with Cosmed Quark CPET gas exchange analysing device (Cosmed Srl, Rome, Italy), and Quark PFT Suite to Omnia 1.6 software were utilised. The gas analyser device was regularly calibrated with the reference gas (16% O2; 5% CO2) in accordance with the manufacturer’s instructions (Airgas USA, LLC, Plumsteadville, PA, USA). From 2013 to 2021, three Cosmed Quark CPET units were used. HR was measured with the Cosmed torso belt (Cosmed srl, Rome, Italy). [La-]b was measured via enzymatic-amperometric electrochemical technique with Super GL2 analyser (Müller Gerätebau GmbH, Freital, Germany). The [La-]b analyser was regularly calibrated before each measurement series. The 40 m2 indoor, air-conditioned laboratory with 20–22°C temperature and 40–60% humidity, and 100 m ASL provided the same conditions for all BC and CPET. Each CPET began with a 5 min personalised warm-up (walk or easy jog with ‘conversational’ intensity for running, easy pedalling with ‘conversational’ intensity for cycling). Then after the preparation (about 5 min), the continuous progressive step test was conducted. Due to the population diversity (training status), the running test speed started from 7 to 12 km·hr–1 with a 1% treadmill incline. The choice of initial starting speed was determined by the interview and sports results achieved. For example, those running less than 60 min at a distance of 10 km started the test at 7 km/hr, while those running 10 km for less than 35 min started the test at an initial speed of 12 km/hr. The pace increased by 1 km·hr–1 every 2 min with no change in incline. The cycling test began at 60–150 W, depending on the athletes training status. The power increased by 20–30 W every 2 min. It was recommended to maintain a constant cadence of 80–90 (repetition·min–1) during the test. The tests were terminated due to exhaustion: volitional inability to continue the activity or/and VO2 and HR plateau with increasing load or/and observed disturbance of coordination in running or/and inability to maintain the set cadence. Due to the graded protocol used, the cycling power and running speed values have been calculated as a function of time to better reflect the actual level for the test moment being determined (Kuipers et al., 1985). Before the test, after every step, and 3 min after the termination of the effort technician took a 20 µL blood sample from a fingertip. Samples were collected during the test without interrupting the effort. The samples were taken from the initial puncture. The first blood drop was collected into the swab and the second blood drop was drawn for further analysis into the capillary. VO2max was recorded as the highest value (15 s intervals) before the termination of the test. HRmax was recorded as the highest value obtained at the end of the test, without averaging. The anaerobic threshold (AT) was established with the following criteria: (1) common start of VE/VO2 and VE/VCO2 curves, (2) end-tidal partial pressure of oxygen raised constantly with the end-tidal partial pressure of carbon dioxide (Beaver et al., 1986). The was established with the following criteria: (1) PetCO2 must decrease after reaching maximal amount, (2) the presence of fast nonlinear growth in VE (second deflection), (3) the VE/VCO2 ratio achieved minimum and started to rise, and (4) a nonlinear increase in VCO2 versus VO2 (lack of linearity) (Beaver et al., 1986). The [La-]b was estimated for AT and RCP in relation to power or speed (Wiecha et al., 2022). Data analysis Request a detailed protocol Our comprehensive ML approach enables the evaluation of each formula by preliminary variables precision (at the stage of selection), then accuracy (during the model’s building) and recall (in internal validation). Individual CPET results were saved into the Excel file (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, WA, USA) and a custom-made script was used to generate the database in Excel (Python programming). Further, mean, SD, and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The normality of the distribution of the data was examined using the Shapiro-Wilk test and intergroup differences were calculated using the Student’s t-test for independent variables. Three-step variable selection procedures based on random forests were applied using the R package VSURF in RStudio software (R Core Team, Vienna, Austria; version 3.6.4) (Genuer et al., 2016). For each level of measurement (AT, RCP) and their combination (AT+RCP), significant variables were identified separately. The first step was dedicated to eliminate irrelevant variables from the dataset. Second step aimed to select all variables related to the response for interpretation purposes. The third step refined the selection by eliminating redundancy in the set of variables selected by the second step, for prediction purposes (Genuer et al., 2017). Each time for variables selection, the anthropometric variables as in Tables 1–2 and the CPET parameters given in Tables 3–4 from a specific level of measurement (AT; RCP) and their combinations were visible. Table 1 Basic anthropometric characteristics for runners. Variable (unit)Derivation group n=1998Testing group n=666Validation group n=666MeanCISDMeanCISDMeanCISDAge (years)36.235.6–36.98.4535.935.5–36.38.0535.534.9–36.28.14Height (cm)180.0179.6–180.56.04179.4179.1–179.76.13179.7179.2–180.26.61BM (kg)77.777.0–78.49.3577.777.3–78.19.2977.977.1–78.610.1BMI (kg·m–2)23.923.8–24.12.4324.124.0–24.22.4124.123.9–24.32.56BF (%)15.415.1–15.74.5515.515.3–15.74.5215.415.1–15.84.55FM (kg)12.211.9–12.64.6812.312.1–12.54.6512.311.9–12.74.92FFM (kg)65.565.0–66.06.4365.465.1–65.76.3165.665.1–66.16.86 BM, body mass; BMI, body mass index; BF, body fat; FM, fat mass; FFM, fat-free mass; CI, 95% confidence interval; SD, standard deviation. Table 2 Basic anthropometric characteristics for cyclists. Variable (unit)Derivation group n=656Testing group n=219Validation group n=219MeanCISDMeanCISDMeanCISDAge (years)37.336.6–38.09.1337.135.9–38.49.5037.636.5–38.88.46Height (cm)179.9179.4–180.46.27180.1179.2–181.06.96180.2179.4–181.06.13BM (kg)78.878.1–79.69.8079.177.7–80.510.479.878.4–81.310.9BMI (kg·m–2)24.324.1–24.62.6324.424.0–24.72.8024.624.2–25.02.96BF (%)16.415.7–17.14.9916.115.7–16.54.8116.215.5–16.84.87FM (kg)13.312.6–14.15.6613.012.6–13.45.2713.312.5–14.05.85FFM (kg)65.864.9–66.66.2565.865.4–66.36.0666.665.7–67.46.58 BM, body mass; BMI, body mass index; BF, body fat; FM, fat mass; FFM, fat-free mass; CI, 95% confidence interval; SD, standard deviation. Table 3 Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) characteristics for runners. Variable (unit)Derivation group n=1998Testing group n=666Validation group n=666MeanCISDMeanCISDMeanCISDrVO2AT (mL·min–1·kg–1)38.438.1–38.85.0138.538.3–38.74.8838.137.7–38.55.16RERAT0.870.86–0.870.040.870.86–0.870.040.870.86–0.870.04HRAT (beats·min–1)151.5150.8–152.310.3151.0150.6–151.510.8152.0151.2–152.810.8VEAT (L·min–1)79.178.1–80.012.278.377.8–78.912.077.276.3–78.212.0SPEEDAT (km·h–1)11.010.9–11.11.4511.011.0–11.11.3610.910.8–11.01.42LAAT (mmol·L–1)2.082.02–2.140.631.801.76–1.830.622.352.27–2.420.72rVO2RCP (mL·min–1·kg–1)47.547.0–48.05.8847.747.4–48.06.1547.346.8–47.86.16RERRCP1.001.00–1.000.041.001.00–1.000.041.001.00–1.000.03HRRCP (beats·min–1)173.4172.7–174.19.21173.2172.8–173.69.30174.3173.5–175.09.50VERCP (L·min–1)114.7113.5–116.015.9113.9113.1–114.616.7112.7111.4–114.016.2SPEEDRCP (km·h–1)14.013.9–14.11.7714.114.0–14.11.7013.913.8–14.11.75LARCP (mmol·L–1)4.724.63–4.821.044.404.34–4.451.044.814.69–4.931.14rVO2max (mL·min–1·kg–1)53.853.3–54.36.6754.354.0–54.66.9553.853.3–54.37.09 CI, 95% confidence interval; SD, standard deviation; rVO2AT, oxygen uptake at anaerobic threshold relative to body mass; RERAT, respiratory exchange ratio at anaerobic threshold; HRAT, heart rate at anaerobic threshold; VEAT, pulmonary ventilation at anaerobic threshold; SPEEDAT, velocity at anaerobic threshold; LAAT, blood lactate concentration at anaerobic threshold; rVO2RCP, oxygen uptake at respiratory compensation point relative to body mass; RERRCP, respiratory exchange ratio at respiratory compensation point; HRRCP, heart rate at respiratory compensation point; VERCP, pulmonary ventilation at respiratory compensation point; SPEEDRCP, velocity at respiratory compensation point; LARCP, blood lactate concentration at respiratory compensation point; rVO2max, maximal oxygen uptake relative to body mass. Table 4 Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) characteristics for cyclists. Variable (unit)Derivation group n=656Testing group n=219Validation group n=219MeanCISDMeanCISDMeanCISDrVO2AT (mL·min–1·kg–1)33.032.5–33.45.8433.232.4–33.95.6833.732.9–34.55.89RERAT0.870.87–0.870.040.870.87–0.880.040.870.87–0.880.04HRAT CI, 95% confidence interval; SD, standard deviation; rVO2AT, oxygen uptake at anaerobic threshold relative to body mass; RERAT, respiratory exchange ratio at anaerobic threshold; HRAT, heart rate at anaerobic threshold; VEAT, pulmonary ventilation at anaerobic threshold; power at anaerobic threshold relative to body mass; LAAT, blood lactate concentration at anaerobic threshold; rVO2RCP, oxygen uptake at respiratory compensation point relative to body mass; RERRCP, respiratory exchange ratio at respiratory compensation point; HRRCP, heart rate at respiratory compensation point; VERCP, pulmonary ventilation at respiratory compensation point; LARCP, blood lactate concentration at respiratory compensation point; power at respiratory compensation point relative to body mass; rVO2max, maximal oxygen uptake relative to body mass. selection variables were in the further only selected parameters were into multiple linear regression The data for MLR model building were randomly into that is testing, validation and of the a only significant were in the Derived are by the of mean and mean analysis was used to the model’s precision and accuracy during validation and tests to the fulfilment of MLR test the of in MLR test assessment between and test of Each model was examined the and any have not been 2 package in RStudio (R Core Team, Vienna, Austria; version version for and software version were used in was considered as the Results Somatic measurements and CPET results data of the runners models for testing, and validation are in Table while cyclists are in Table The runners of and for testing, and validation the cyclists and differences between of runners and cyclists were in BMI and between testing in all between validation only in CPET results for runners models are in Table 3 and for cyclists in Table Runners in the cohort achieved relative to body mass VO2max of in testing group and in validation group cyclists mean was and for testing, and validation to body mass oxygen uptake at anaerobic threshold in runners for ± ± and ± of in testing, and validation it was ± ± and ± of rVO2max, relative to body mass oxygen uptake at respiratory compensation point in runners for ± ± and ± of for testing, and validation while in cyclists for ± ± and ± of rVO2max, There were no significant differences in values between testing, and validation the runners and cyclists between runners and cyclists results were all significant Prediction models based on AT and RCP Full of MLR prediction models for cyclists are in Table for runners in Table The models prediction performance is as with and for cyclists from for somatic parameters to for RCP equations. For runners from for to for AT and equations. for cyclists models was the for RCP and the highest for For from for AT and to for equation. observed for cyclists was the for RCP in the validation group and the highest for while in runners the for AT and and the highest for The performance of prediction is in Figure Figure 2 Download asset Open asset of prediction for Abbreviations: maximal oxygen anaerobic threshold; RCP, respiratory compensation point; All values are in performance for running while the performance for cycling equations. performance of the prediction model for for for AT and for somatic-only equation. Table 5 VO2max prediction for cyclists. linear regression group group = = = = based on anaerobic threshold; RCP, based on respiratory compensation point; based on somatic variables mean mean maximal oxygen uptake relative to body mass rVO2AT, oxygen uptake at anaerobic threshold relative to body mass power at anaerobic threshold relative to body mass rVO2RCP, oxygen uptake at respiratory compensation point relative to body mass VERCP, pulmonary ventilation at respiratory compensation point BF, body fat BM, body mass Table VO2max prediction for runners. linear regression group group = = = = based on anaerobic threshold; RCP, based on respiratory compensation point; based on somatic variables mean mean maximal oxygen uptake relative to body mass rVO2AT, oxygen uptake at anaerobic threshold relative to body mass SPEEDAT, velocity at anaerobic threshold FFM, fat mass VEAT, pulmonary ventilation at anaerobic threshold HRAT, heart rate at anaerobic threshold BF, body fat rVO2RCP, oxygen uptake at respiratory compensation point relative to body mass SPEEDRCP, velocity at respiratory compensation point Models validation of each model for cyclists is in Table while for runners in Table the performance of our prediction was to that observed in the