An Introduction to Surrogate Modeling and Response Surface Methodology in Engineering Design Optimization

Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) supports the system-level design of complex products effectively. Currently, system design and optimization for complex products are two distinct processes that must be executed using different software or platforms, involving intricate data conversion processes. Applying multidisciplinary optimization to validate system optimization often necessitates remodeling the optimization objects, which is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and highly error-prone. A critical activity in systems engineering is identifying the optimal design solution for the entire system. Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) and reliability analysis are essential methods for achieving this. This paper proposes a SysML-based multidisciplinary reliability design optimization modeling method. First, by analyzing the definitions and mathematical models of multidisciplinary reliability design optimization, the SysML extension mechanism is employed to represent the optimization model based on SysML. Next, model transformation techniques are used to convert the SysML optimization model generated in the first stage into an XML description model readable by optimization solvers. Finally, the proposed method’s effectiveness is validated through an engineering case study of an in-vehicle environmental control integration system. The results demonstrate that this method fully utilizes SysML to express MDO problems, enhancing the efficiency of design optimization for complex systems. Engineers and system designers working on complex, multidisciplinary projects can particularly benefit from these advancements, as they simplify the integration of design and optimization processes, facilitating more reliable and efficient product development.

The optimal design of multidisciplinary systems under uncertainty involves three types of iterative analyses- multidisciplinary analyses, reliability analyses, and optimization. If these processes are carried out in a nested manner in reliability based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO), the computational expense can be enormous. Computationally efficient simultaneous analysis and design (SAND) or All-AtOnce methods have been developed earlier for deterministic MDO. Single loop RBDO methods have also been developed to integrate reliability analysis and optimization in a single loop. This paper develops a novel formulation of RBMDO problems with both system and component level reliability constraints. The formulation allows for solution with a single design optimization loop by using the KKT optimality conditions of the first-order reliability method (FORM) as constraints in the design optimization along with disciplinary consistency constraints. Alternative solution processes which remove the FORM MPP’s from the decision space and many constraints from the problem are developed. The alternative solution methods are more efficient and more robust than using nonlinear programming to solve the single loop formulation. A numerical example is solved with the two proposed solution algorithms. I. Introduction In the design of multidisciplinary systems it is often necessary to make decisions under uncertainty. This requires that multidisciplinary systems modeling be integrated with uncertainty analysis and optimization. A common example of such an engineering design application would be the design of an aircraft wing under uncertain aerodynamic loading conditions, with multiple structural components with uncertain capacities, such that the entire structural system achieves a prescribed level of reliability. The problem has coupled physics, in that the pressure distribution is dependent upon the deflection, and the deflection is dependent on the pressure distribution. Such designs have been performed using multidisciplinary optimization (MDO). Other examples where MDO may be applied include electronics packaging, in which the disciplines of heat transfer and circuit analysis are coupled, the design of new types of aircraft and integrating them into an existing fleet of aircraft, and even the management of interconnected homeland infrastructures. While MDO has matured with the development of different types of algorithms for various types of problems and design organizations, there has been little work to incorporate reliability analysis into MDO. However, system and component reliabilities are often a major concern in the design of multidisciplinary systems. MDO can be computationally expensive due to the need to achieve consistency across multiple disciplinary analysis codes; each disciplinary analysis code may be computationally expensive to run. Further, the optimal design of multidisciplinary systems under uncertainty involves three types of iterative procedures- multidisciplinary analyses, reliability analyses, and optimization. The integration of these three procedures is referred to in this paper as reliability based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO). If these processes are carried out simultaneously, the computational expense can be enormous. Computational savings can often be achieved with simultaneous analysis and design (SAND) or All-At-Once methods, which allow for the solution of the multidisciplinary analyses and the optimization in one single loop. Single loop RBDO methods allow for the integration of reliability analysis and optimization in a single loop. Applying SAND and single-loop RBDO together may allow for large computational savings when applied to problems in RBMDO. This paper develops a novel formulation of RBMDO problems with both system and component level reliability constraints based on the SAND method for MDO and by use of the KKT conditions of the first order reliability method (FORM). The resulting formulation may be solved as a standard nonlinear programming problem. While the single loop formulation presented in this paper is a solution of the RBMDO problem, robustness and efficiency are improved through two improved algorithms which can remove the MPP’s from the decision space, thereby significantly reducing the optimizer’s workload.

This contribution investigates the application of surrogate modeling, specifically Kriging and Response Surface Methodology (RSM), in optimizing injection molding simulation processes. Injection molding simulations are computationally intensive due to the multi-physical interactions involved, making surrogate models an attractive alternative to reduce computational effort. The authors employ Kriging and RSM models to simulate the injection molding of three different geometrical configurations, assessing their performance in predicting parameters for process quality/efficiency like deformation, shrinkage, and cycle time. The study makes use of MATLABs fmincon optimization algorithm with the models, emphasizing cycle time minimization while maintaining deformation and shrinkage within acceptable limits. In addition to the prediction accuracy, this contribution demonstrates that both surrogate models reduce the computational cost per evaluation by several orders of magnitude compared to full injection molding simulations and provide fast, iterative optimization. Findings indicate that Kriging outperforms RSM, especially in complex geometries, by providing more accurate predictions with lower error rates. The validation against digital twin simulations supports the effectiveness of Kriging, making it preferable for applications requiring high precision in process optimization.

Battery thermal management system (BTMS) is a complex and highly integrated system, which is used to control the battery thermal conditions in electric vehicles (EVs). The BTMS consists of many subsystems that belong to different disciplines, which poses challenges to BTMS optimization using conventional methods. This paper develops a general variable fidelity-based multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) architecture and optimizes the BTMS by considering different systems/disciplines from the systemic perspective. Four subsystems and/or subdisciplines are modeled, including the battery thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, structure, and lifetime model. To perform the variable fidelity-based MDO of the BTMS, two computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models with different levels of fidelity are developed. A low fidelity surrogate model and a tuned low fidelity model are also developed using an automatic surrogate model selection method, the concurrent surrogate model selection (COSMOS). An adaptive model switching (AMS) method is utilized to realize the adaptive switch between variable-fidelity models. The objectives are to maximize the battery lifetime and to minimize the battery volume, the fan's power, and the temperature difference among different cells. The results show that the variable-fidelity MDO can balance the characteristics of the low fidelity mathematical models and the computationally expensive simulations, and find the optimal solutions efficiently and accurately.

This paper addresses the critical issue of effectiveness, efficiency, and reliability in simulation-based design optimization under surrogate model uncertainty. Specifically, it presents a novel method to build surrogate models iteratively with sufficient fidelity for accurately capturing global optimal design solutions at a minimal cost. The salient feature of the proposed method lies in its unique preference of focusing necessarily high fidelity at potential global optimal regions of surrogate models. The proposed method is the synergic integration of the multiple preference point method, which updates surrogate model at current local optimal points predicted with data-mining techniques in genetic algorithm setup, and the maximum variance point method, which updates surrogate model at the point associated with the maximum prediction variance. Through illustrative comparison studies on thirty different optimization scenarios derived from 15 different test functions, the proposed method demonstrates the tangible reliability advancement. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method can be a reliable updating method in surrogate-model-based design optimization for efficiently locating the global optimal point/points in various kinds of optimization scenarios featured by single/multiple global optimal point/points that may exist at the corners of design space, inside design space, or on the boundaries of design space.

All engineering design problems can be characterized by the underlying assumptions around which the problem is formulated. The effect of these assumptions - including everything from general assumptions defining an operating environment to detailed assumptions regarding material properties - is variability in system performance, and resulting deviations from expected performance. Assumptions are made to eliminate uncertainties that would prevent the quantification of design performance. Probabilistic methods have been developed in recent decades to convert such deterministic problem formulations into probabilistic formulations to model and assess the effects of these known uncertainties and thus relax restrictive assumptions. Until very recently, however, the computational expense of probabilistic analysis of a single design has made its application impractical for all but very simplistic design problems. Consequently, probabilistic optimization has been considered prohibitively expensive, particularly for complex multidisciplinary systems. Today a number of enabling technologies are available to support probabilistic design analysis and optimization for complex engineering design problems, including: flexible software frameworks that allow integration and automation of a complex multidisciplinary process; probabilistic analysis and optimization tools that allow uncertainty to be modeled and performance variation to be measured and reduced; large scale parallel processing capabilities leading to greatly increased efficiency; and advanced surrogate modeling capabilities to replace complex nonlinear analyses with computationally efficient approximation models. Along with steady increases in computing power, the combination of these enabling technologies can facilitate effective probabilistic analysis and optimization for complex design problems. In this paper we focus primarily on two of these enabling technologies. We present a comprehensive probabilistic design optimization formulation, a six sigma based approach that incorporates variability within all elements of the formulation - input design variable bound formulation, output constraint formulation, and robust objective formulation. We discuss the applicability of kriging, one surrogate modeling approach that supports the approximation of complex nonlinear analyses, for facilitating probabilistic multidisciplinary design optimization. These enabling technologies, as implemented within the commercial software framework provided by iSIGHT, including capability to facilitate parallel processing, are demonstrated for a multidisciplinary conceptual ship design problem.

A blowout preventer (BOP) is a large valve that encases an oil well on the surface. The valve may be closed while drilling if overpressure from a reservoir causes formation fluids such as oil and natural gas to back up within the wellbore and endanger the rig. A pipe ram is one of the critical components in the BOP system, which is designed to seal around a drill pipe, restricting the flow in the annulus between the outside of the drill pipe and the wellbore. The pipe ram design family, which contains hundreds of pipe ram designs, intends to cover different configurations to suit a variety of dill pipe sizes. To assure their structural integrity under service loads, these pipe rams need to be designed to meet the stress requirements per the American Petroleum Institute (API) Specification 16A and ASME (American Society of Mechanical Engineers) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section VIII, Division 2. With a conventional manual design workflow, it would take a significant amount of time and effort to complete all the designs for the product family with code compliance. Therefore, a scalable solution is highly desirable for delivery of customer-needed ram blocks with much shorter lead time. MDO (Multi-Disciplinary Optimization) involves multi-code integration, CAE (Computer-Aided Engineering) workflow automation, design space exploration, and optimization. MDO-enabled, automated design optimization is becoming increasingly popular in both scientific and engineering communities. In this paper, a methodology for integration of CAD (Computer Aided Design), FEA (Finite Element Analysis), cost, and optimization packages to enable FEA automation and design optimization is presented. A BOP pipe ram is adopted as the use case. The ram block geometry was parameterized before being imported into an FEA package. The FEA workflow was automated such that once a set of geometric parameters are given, the preprocessing, solving, and postprocessing steps can be automatically completed. As part of the FEA postprocessing, stress linearization analysis per the API and ASME BPVC codes has also been automated, which had never been done in the past. A manufacturing cost analysis package can also be used to consume the parameterized geometry for automatic manufacturability assessment and cost predictions. The stress analysis and cost analysis workflows are conducted separately but also orchestrated by an MDO package. Reports that contain the analysis results are sequentially generated for various design permutations. The MDO-enabled automated design and cost analysis approach could substantially enhance efficiency and consistency in performing FEA and cost studies and producing analysis reports. It is also the backbone for automated design optimization, which could significantly improve the product performance and reliability and, meanwhile, minimize the development and product cost.

In order to design a vehicle body with high strength and high stiffness, a multi-disciplinary design process should include careful consideration of multi-disciplinary design constraints to properly account for vehicle static stiffness (bending/torsional), durability, Noise/Vibration/Harshness (NVH), crash worthiness, light weight vehicle structure during the early stage of vehicle design process. With this approach, fast development of new vehicle body structures can be achieved with minimal number of iterations to match the conflicting design goals from each discipline. In the current research, a multi-disciplinary design optimization (MDO) based on a meta model is developed and refined to apply for the design of body structure. In an effort to apply the MDO for vehicle body structure, 4 phase procedures were established in the current research. In Phase I, a base model is created. In Phase II, an effect analysis is carried out. In Phase III, a meta model is created. Finally in Phase IV, using the optimization algorithm, the meta model created in Phase III is eventually refined through the process of optimization. In this research, static stiffness (bending / torsional), dynamic stiffness (1st torsion mode) were used for constrained conditions and the mass minimization was the object function for optimization.

Hybrid-Game Strategies for multi-objective design optimization in engineering

Surrogate modeling techniques are widely employed in solving constrained expensive black-box optimization problems. Therein, Kriging is among the most popular surrogates in which the trend function is considered as a constant mean. However, it also encounters several challenges related to capturing the overall trend with a relatively limited number of function evaluations as well as searching feasible points with complex or discontinuous feasible regions. To address this above issue, this paper presents an improved surrogate blind Kriging (IBK) and a combined infill strategy to find the optimal solution. According to enhancing the prediction accuracy of metamodels of objective and constraints, the high-order effects of regression function in the blind Kriging are identified by promising a variable selection technique. In addition, an infill strategy is developed based on the probability of feasibility, penalization, and constrained expected improvement for updating blind Kriging metamodels of the objective and constraints. At each iteration, two infill sample points are allocated at the positions to achieve improvement in optimality and feasibility. The IBK metamodels are updated by the newly-added infill sample points, which leads the proposed framework search to rapidly converge to the optimal solution. The performance and applicability of the proposed model are tested on several numerical benchmark problems via comparing with other metamodel-based constrained optimization methods. The obtained results indicate that IBK generally has a greater efficiency performance and outperforms the competitors in terms of a limited number of function evaluations. Finally, IBK is successfully applied to structural design optimization. The optimization results show that IBK is able to find the best feasible design with fewer evaluation functions compared with other studies, and this demonstrates the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model for solving the constrained expensive black-box engineering design optimization problems.

<p>Multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) refers to the process of designing systems characterized by the interaction of multiple interconnected disciplines. High-fidelity MDO usually requires large computational resources due to the computational cost of achieving multidisciplinary consistent solutions by coupling high-fidelity physics-based solvers. Gradient-based minimization algorithms are generally applied to find local minima, due to their efficiency in solving problems with a large number of design variables. This represents a limitation to performing global MDO and integrating black-box type analysis tools, usually not providing gradient information. The latter issues generally inhibit a wide use of MDO in complex industrial applications.</p><p>An architecture named multi-criterion adaptive sampling MDO (MCAS-MDO) is presented in the current research for complex simulation-based applications. This research aims at building a global derivative-free optimization tool able to employ high-fidelity/expensive black-box solvers for the analysis of the disciplines. MCAS-MDO is a surrogate-based architecture featuring a variable level of coupling among the disciplines and is driven by a multi-criterion adaptive sampling (MCAS) assessing coupling and sampling uncertainties. MCAS uses the dynamic radial basis function surrogate model to identify the optimal solution and explore the design space through parallel infill of new solutions.</p><p>The MCAS-MDO is tested versus a global derivative-free multidisciplinary feasible (MDF) approach, which solves fully-coupled multidisciplinary analyses, for two analytical test problems. Evaluation metrics include number of function evaluations required to achieve the optimal solution and sample distribution. The MCAS-MDO outperforms the MDF showing a faster convergence by clustering refined function evaluations in the optimum region.</p><p>The architecture is applied to a steady fluid-structure interaction (FSI) problem, namely the design of a tapered three-dimensional carbon fiber-reinforced plastic hydrofoil for minimum drag. The objective is the design of shape and composite material layout subject to hydrodynamic, structural, and geometrical constraints. Experimental data are available for the original configuration of the hydrofoil and allow validating the FSI analysis, which is performed coupling computational fluid dynamics, solving the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations, and finite elements, solving the structural equation of elastic motion. Hydrofoil forces, tip displacement, and tip twist are evaluated for several materials providing qualitative agreement with the experiments and confirming the need for the two-way versus one-way coupling approach in case of significantly compliant structures.</p><p>The free-form deformation method is applied to generate shape modifications of the hydrofoil geometry. To reduce the global computational expense of the optimization, a design space assessment and dimensionality reduction based on the Karhunen–Loève expansion (KLE) is performed off-line, i.e. without the need for high-fidelity simulations. It provides with a selection of design variables for the problem at hand through basis rotation and re-parametrization. By using the KLE, an efficient design space is identified for the current problem and the number of design variables is reduced by 92%.</p><p>A sensitivity analysis is performed prior to the optimization to assess the variability associated with the shape design variables and the composite material design variable, i.e. the fiber orientation. These simulations are used to initialize the surrogate model for the optimization, which is carried out for two models: one in aluminum and one in composite material. The optimized designs are assessed by comparison with the original models through evaluation of the flow field, pressure distribution on the body, and deformation under the hydrodynamic load. The drag of the aluminum and composite material hydrofoils is reduced by 4 and 11%, respectively, increasing the hydrodynamic efficiency by 4 and 7%. The optimized designs are obtained by evaluating approximately 100 designs. The quality of the results indicates that global derivative-free MDO of complex engineering applications using expensive black-box solvers can be achieved at a feasible computational cost by minimizing the design space dimensionality and performing an intelligent sampling to train the surrogate-based optimization.</p>

The design of multidiscipli nary systems (such as aircraft, automobiles, and others) often requires an iterative cycle that includes a design initialization, a system analysis, a sensitivity analysis, and design optimization. This design cycle is standard in the field of Multidisciplinary Optimization (MDO) and has often been referred to in literature as the Multiple Discipline-Feasible (MDF) approach. The name stems from the fact that complete multidisciplinary feasibility is maintained each and every design cycle. The drawback of MDF is that it can be a timely and a costly procedure. Numerous researchers have developed alternate means for posing and subsequently solving the multidisciplinary design problem. One such solution procedure has been referred to both as Simultaneous Analysis and Design (SAND) and All-at-Once (AAO), and treats the entire multidisciplinary design cycle as one large optimization problem. Another alternate solution procedure lias been referred to as Individual-Discipline-Feasible (DDF); this procedure exhibits characteristics which lie in between the two extremes exemplified by MDF and AAO. IDF assures that each individual discipline is feasible on every design cycle, while driving the entire system (all disciplines) towards multidisciplinary feasibility. The present work will present a rigorous numerical comparison of these solution strategies over a wide variety of problem sizes and complexities. The multidisciplinary design test problems that are used for these comparisons are generated by a robust simulation tool called CASCADE. * Research Assistant, Student member, AIAA | Associate Professor, Member AIAA Background and Motivation Concurrent engineering is a systematic approach to the integrated, simultaneous design of products and their related processes. Many of the recently developed capabilities to address concurrent engineering have stemmed from the emerging area of Multidiscipli nary Optimization, or MDO. The origins of MDO can be traced back to the early 1980's, where Sobieski14 used a linear decomposition approach to subdivide the design of a large engineering system into a grouping of related and more manageable subsystems. However, such a decomposition often results in a grouping of subsystems which cannot be placed into a definitive top-down hierarchy. The resultant decomposition grouping is typically hybrid-hierarchic in nature as shown in the example decomposition of Figure 1.

Effect of Variable Selection on Multidisciplinary Design Optimization: a Flight Vehicle Example

Research on multidisciplinary fatigue optimization design method in structural design of high speed train

Patch‐repaired plain woven composite structures were exposed to internal damage caused by impact during service, which reduced mechanical properties. A multi‐scale modeling strategy was proposed to study the impact resistance characteristics of patch‐repaired plain woven carbon‐fiber‐reinforced‐polymer (CFRP) laminates. The micro representative volume element (RVE) was extracted from the yarn; a local homogenization method was used to obtain the equivalent cross‐ply laminate (ECPL) cells corresponding to the mesoscale RVE. The finite element model (FEM) of patch‐repaired plain woven laminate was established by extending the ECPL cells. The FEM was checked by the low‐velocity impact (LVI) tests, and the impact parameter errors were within 10%. Furthermore, impact resistance of repaired specimens under different impact conditions (e.g., the impact energy was 3 ~ 20 J) was studied. Finally, patch parameters (patch thickness, patch size, off‐axis angle) of the repaired specimen were optimized by multi‐objective optimization based on the surrogate model and response surface method (RSM). After multi‐objective function optimization, the optimal patch parameter configuration (the thickness of the patch was 0.87 mm, the diameter was 66 mm, and the off‐axis angle was 44.2°) reduced the absorbed energy value of the repaired specimen from 4.9089 to 4.1640 J, and the delamination area of the repaired specimen from 605 to 280 mm2. All the results provide a reference for patch repair of plain woven composites.