An optimized model using LSTM network for demand forecasting

This study seeks to identify the most effective forecasting period and methods for predicting demand in an Accident & Emergency (A&E) department at a mid-sized hospital in England. Utilizing the National Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) dataset, that covers a 36-month period from February 2010 to January 2013, the research evaluates four commonly used forecasting methods: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), exponential smoothing, stepwise linear regression (SLR), and Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STLF). Forecast accuracy is assessed using the Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE). The MASE values for the best forecasting methods across different periods were 0.7834 for daily, 0.9354 for weekly, and 0.5259 for monthly estimates. The study found that the SLR model was the most effective predictive method, with monthly estimation emerging as the optimal period. Contrary to past studies that favoured daily estimates, this research indicated that daily A&E demand forecasts might not be the most accurate.

Planning the future blood collection efforts must be based on adequate forecasts of transfusion demand. In this study, univariate time-series methods were investigated for their performance in forecasting the monthly demand for RBCs at one tertiary-care, university hospital. Three time-series methods were investigated: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), the Holt-Winters family of exponential smoothing models, and one neural-network-based method. The time series consisted of the monthly demand for RBCs from January 1988 to December 2002 and was divided into two segments: the older one was used to fit or train the models, and the younger to test for the accuracy of predictions. Performance was compared across forecasting methods by calculating goodness-of-fit statistics, the percentage of months in which forecast-based supply would have met the RBC demand (coverage rate), and the outdate rate. The RBC transfusion series was best fitted by a seasonal ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)(12) model. Over 1-year time horizons, forecasts generated by ARIMA or exponential smoothing laid within the +/- 10 percent interval of the real RBC demand in 79 percent of months (62% in the case of neural networks). The coverage rate for the three methods was 89, 91, and 86 percent, respectively. Over 2-year time horizons, exponential smoothing largely outperformed the other methods. Predictions by exponential smoothing laid within the +/- 10 percent interval of real values in 75 percent of the 24 forecasted months, and the coverage rate was 87 percent. Over 1-year time horizons, predictions of RBC demand generated by ARIMA or exponential smoothing are accurate enough to be of help in the planning of blood collection efforts. For longer time horizons, exponential smoothing outperforms the other forecasting methods.

The objective of this research is to improve the inventory management for an automotive tire distributor company in Northeast Thailand to mainly reduce the excessive unnecessary stock. According to the initial investigations, the main causes of overstock are unstable customer demands and a lack of an inventory control system based on theory. In order to better address the issues and scope down the research area, three suitable products and sub-dealers with different demand patterns are selected to find the best-fit forecasting model for each of them and be customized the inventory policy based on the demand patterns. The methodology is divided into two main parts which are the demand forecasting model and inventory control policies for both sub-dealers and the company.Regarding the development of more accurate demand forecasting models, there are six forecasting models which are three months moving averages, single exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, Holt’s winter method, linear regression, and ARIMA conducted to select the best model. The study reveals that Holt’s winter and ARIMA model provides the least forecasting errors as measured by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).According to a proper inventory policy and more accurate demand forecast value from the suitable model, sub-dealers and a company can save up to 47%, and inventory turnover increases by up to 80% while inventory holding days decreases by up to 55 days.

According to International Energy Agency (IEA), India is expected to surpass China by 2024 to become the second largest consumer of oil in the world followed by the United States. High-Speed Diesel (HSD) has the biggest share in the total petroleum products consumed in India accounting for around 38% of the total consumption. Considering the volatile global oil market and an oil import dependency ratio of more than 80% during the last four years, the probability of supply disruptions is high in the Indian context. As any uncertainty about the supply of diesel can affect the smooth functioning of the economy and may create inflationary pressures. Accurate forecasting of HSD demand will be essential for appropriate supply management arrangements. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and extreme learning machines is used for forecasting diesel demand in this study. Demand forecasting has been carried out using monthly HSD demand data drawn from the “Indiastat” database for the period 1991-2022. Comparison of ANN with traditional forecasting methods of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)and Exponential Smoothing has also been undertaken in this study. This study identifies the deep learning technique of ANN with MLP as the best diesel demand forecasting technique.

Consumption of natural gas, a major clean energy source, increases as energy demand increases. We studied specifically the Turkish natural gas market. Turkey’s natural gas consumption increased as well in parallel with the world‘s over the last decade. This consumption growth in Turkey has led to the formation of a market structure for the natural gas industry. This significant increase requires additional investments since a rise in consumption capacity is expected. One of the reasons for the consumption increase is the user-based natural gas consumption influence. This effect yields imbalances in demand forecasts and if the error rates are out of bounds, penalties may occur. In this paper, three univariate statistical methods, which have not been previously investigated for mid-term year-ahead monthly natural gas forecasting, are used to forecast natural gas demand in Turkey’s Sakarya province. Residential and low-consumption commercial data is used, which may contain seasonality. The goal of this paper is minimizing more or less gas tractions on mid-term consumption while improving the accuracy of demand forecasting. In forecasting models, seasonality and single variable impacts reinforce forecasts. This paper studies time series decomposition, Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methods. Here, 2011–2014 monthly data were prepared and divided into two series. The first series is 2011–2013 monthly data used for finding seasonal effects and model requirements. The second series is 2014 monthly data used for forecasting. For the ARIMA method, a stationary series was prepared and transformation process prior to forecasting was done. Forecasting results confirmed that as the computation complexity of the model increases, forecasting accuracy increases with lower error rates. Also, forecasting errors and the coefficients of determination values give more consistent results. Consequently, when there is only consumption data in hand, all methods provide satisfying results and the differences between each method is very low. If a statistical software tool is not used, time series decomposition, the most primitive method, or Winters exponential smoothing requiring little mathematical knowledge for natural gas demand forecasting can be used with spreadsheet software. A statistical software tool containing ARIMA will obtain the best results.

This study proposes a hybrid forecasting method that combines ARIMA and SVM models to address the complexity of supply chain demand forecasting. The ARIMA model is used to capture linear trends and seasonal fluctuations in time series, while the SVM model is responsible for modeling the nonlinear residual part. By combining the advantages of both, this paper builds a more accurate demand forecast model. Experimental results show that the combined model performs well when dealing with large market fluctuations and non-linear demand changes. Compared with the ARIMA and SVM models applied individually, the forecast error is significantly reduced. The model shows good prediction accuracy in multiple categories such as food, household products and electronic products, provides a more comprehensive demand forecast solution for supply chain management, and helps improve the company's inventory management and market response capabilities.

Nowadays , nonlinear time series and artificial neural networks (ANN) models are used for forecasting in the field of business, agriculture and soon. Recent studies have shown, ANN have been successfully used for forecasting of financial and agriculture data series The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. ANN have more advantages that can approximate to model both linear and nonlinear structures in time series, they are not able to handling both structures equally well. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and two ANN models namely, Radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) methods were applied to Hyderabad airport traffic data. The data obtained for 15 years from 2002–2003 to 2016–2017 about domestic and international passenger of International Airport of Hyderabad, India. In this research paper, we compared the performances of ARIMA, RBFNN and ERNN were based on three measures: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and RMSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the three models ranked in ascending order were: ARIMA, ERNN and the RBFNN model. Keywords: T ime series, forecasting, artificial neural networks, ARIMA models, radial basis function neural networks, and Elman recurrent neural networks Cite this Article R. Ramakrishna, Berhe Aregay, Tewodros Gebregergs. The Comparison in Time Series Forecasting of Air Traffic Data by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, Radial Basis Function and Elman Recurrent Neural Networks. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics . 2018; 7(3): 75–90p.

Predictive analytics has become a crucial tool in modern business decision-making, particularly in demand forecasting. By leveraging historical data and statistical modeling techniques, businesses can enhance resource allocation, optimize inventory management, and improve overall operational efficiency. Among various predictive analytics methods, time series models are widely employed due to their ability to capture trends, seasonality, and patterns in demand fluctuations. This explores the application of time series models, including Moving Average (MA), Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), Exponential Smoothing (Holt-Winters method), and advanced deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. These models enable businesses to make data-driven decisions by accurately predicting future demand, thereby reducing costs and improving supply chain responsiveness. Furthermore, the integration of predictive analytics in business resource allocation extends beyond inventory management. It influences workforce planning, financial forecasting, and supply chain optimization, ensuring that organizations align their operations with anticipated market trends. However, despite the benefits, challenges such as data quality issues, model interpretability, external disruptions, and scalability concerns remain key obstacles in implementing time series forecasting. Emerging advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, and cloud-based forecasting solutions are shaping the future of predictive analytics. The integration of real-time data and machine learning models offers new opportunities for businesses to enhance forecasting accuracy and agility. As demand forecasting continues to evolve, organizations must adopt a strategic approach to model selection and implementation to fully capitalize on the advantages of predictive analytics. This study provides a comprehensive overview of predictive analytics for demand forecasting, highlighting the role of time series models in optimizing business resource allocation and discussing future trends that will drive further innovation in this field.

Background/Objective: To provide an efficient predictive technique to foresee future workload as well as to handle the resources efficiently by performing hybrid auto scaling for Cloud applications. Cloud applications might expertise completely different workload at different times, automatic provisioning has to work with efficiency at any point of time. Auto scaling is a feature of cloud computing that potentially scale the resources in line on demand. Considering this expectation, they are generally categorized into Reactive scaling which adds or reduces resources based on a fixed threshold value. The predictive scaling is used provide necessary scaling actions beforehand. Methods/Statistical Analysis: To perform the hybrid auto scaling (reactive plus predictive auto scaling), a time series technique should be used. Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model, the Exponential Smoothing (ES) model, the Autoregressive model (AR), the Moving Average model (MA) and the Trend- Adjusted Exponential Smoothing (TAES), Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Time-series model, Naïve bayes algorithm, Recurrent Neural Network- Long Short Term Memory (RNN-LSTM), Independent Recurrent Neural Network (IndRNN) are time series techniques used to foresee the future workload. To find the effectiveness of predictive techniques, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) performance metrics are evaluated. Findings: Based on the evaluation, IndRNN gives the minimum error rate. IndRNN is used to predict the future resource requisites in order to ascertain adequate resource are available ahead of time. Application: The predicted result from IndRNN method is integrated on private cloud to autoscale the resources for cloud applications. Keywords: Cloud Applications, Hybrid Autoscaling, Independent Recurrent Neural Network (IndRNN), Private Cloud, Workload

This paper proposes the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based technique for forecasting the computer network traffic. Computer network traffic is sampled on computer networking device connected to the internet. At first, discrete wavelet transform is used to decompose the traffic data into non-linear (approximate) and linear (detailed) components. After that, detailed and approximate components are reconstructed using inverse DWT and predictions are made using Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), respectively. Internet traffic is a time series which can be used to predict the future traffic trends in a computer network. Numerous computer network management tasks depend heavily on the information about the network traffic. This forecasting is very useful for numerous applications, such as congestion control, anomaly detection, and bandwidth allocation. Our method is easy to implement and computationally less expensive which can be easily applied at the data centers, improving the quality of service (QoS) and reducing the cost.

Via national lockdowns, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the production and distribution of foodstuffs worldwide, including rice (Oryza sativa L.) production, affecting the prices in India’s agroecosystems and markets. The present study was performed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 national lockdown on rice prices in India, and to develop statistical machine learning models to forecast price changes under similar crisis scenarios. To estimate the rice prices under COVID-19, the general time series models, such as the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the artificial neural network (ANN) model, and the extreme learning machine (ELM) model, were applied. The results obtained using the ARIMA intervention model revealed that during the COVID-19 lockdown in India, rice prices increased by INR 0.92/kg. In addition, the ELM intervention model was faster, with less computation time, and provided better results vs other models because it detects the nonlinear pattern in time series data, along with the intervention variable, which was considered an exogenous variable. The use of forecasting models can be a useful tool in supporting decision makers, especially under unpredictable crises. The study results are of great importance for the national agri-food sector, as they can bolster authorities and policymakers in planning and designing more sustainable interventions in the food market during (inter)national crisis situations.

This article presents a comprehensive study of sales predictions using time series analysis, focusing on a case study of Walmart sales data. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of various time series forecasting techniques in predicting weekly sales data for Walmart stores. Leveraging a dataset from Kaggle comprising weekly sales data from various Walmart stores around the United States, this study explores the effectiveness of time series analysis in forecasting future sales trends. Various time series analysis techniques, including Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Prophet, Exponential Smoothing, and Gaussian Processes, are applied to model and forecast Walmart sales data. By comparing the performance of these models, the study seeks to identify the most accurate and reliable methods for forecasting retail sales, thereby providing valuable insights for improving sales predictions in the retail sector. The study includes an extensive exploratory data analysis (EDA) phase to preprocess the data, detect outliers, and visualize sales trends over time. Additionally, the article discusses the partitioning of data into training and testing sets for model evaluation. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) are utilized to compare the accuracy of different time series models. The results indicate that Gaussian Processes outperform other models in terms of accuracy, with an RMSE of 34,116.09 and an MAE of 25,495.72, significantly lower than the other models evaluated. For comparison, ARIMA and SARIMA models both yielded an RMSE of 555,502.2 and an MAE of 462,767.3, while the Prophet model showed an RMSE of 567,509.2 and an MAE of 474,990.8. Exponential Smoothing also performed well with an RMSE of 555,081.7 and an MAE of 464,110.5. These findings suggest the potential of Gaussian Processes for accurate sales forecasting. However, the study also highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each forecasting methodology, emphasizing the need for further research to refine existing techniques and explore novel modeling approaches. Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of time series analysis in retail sales forecasting and provides insights for improving future forecasting endeavors.

The hybrid method is a method of combining two forecasting models. Hybrid method is used to improve forecasting accuracy. In this study, the Time Series Regression (TSR) linear model will be combined with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The TSR linear model is used to obtain the model and residual value, then the residual value of the TSR linear model will be modeled by the ARIMA model. This combination method will produce a hybrid TSR linear-ARIMA model. The case study in this research is stock closing price (daily) of PT. Telkom Indonesia Tbk. The stock closing price (daily) of PT. Telkom Indonesia Tbk in 2020 showed an decreasing and increasing trend pattern. The results of this study obtained the best model of hybrid TSR linear-ARIMA (2,1,1) with the proportion of data training and testing is 70:30. In the best model, the MAD value is 56.595, the MAPE value is 1.880%, and the RMSE value is 78.663. It is also found that the hybrid TSR linear-ARIMA model has a smaller error value than the TSR linear model. The results of forecasting the stock price of PT. Telkom Indonesia Tbk for the period 02 January 2021 to 29 January 2021 formed a decreasing trend pattern.

Machine learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) are used for machine trading. The problem with SVM and ANN is that it is difficult to determine appropriated features for both models; moreover, it is also time consuming to perform backpropagation for ANN when a number of both features and data increase. However, machine trading is not confined only these two algorithms, but also time series models. In this study, we will employ time series models namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt – Winters’ Exponential Smoothing (HW) as the guidance for trading since time series models only require time series as an input. We will perform time series analysis to snatch the trading opportunity in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). There are fifty companies on the list of SET50 index; we will choose five amongst them to invest measured by Sharpe Ratio; the top five from this measurement will be selected as invested assets in simulated portfolio. Furthermore, the well-known portfolio optimization framework by Harry Markowitz will be used to ensure that the combination of the invested assets is located on the efficient frontier; the result from this study is favorable as the return generated by these activities outperforms market return; furthermore, manipulating time series into different time lags yields higher return and as well as combining both ARIMA and HW models to help predict stock prices also improves power of prediction of time series models. This study will help retail investor who has limited resource overthrow bias and intuition throughout investment decision process ranging from finding the stocks for investment to capturing market movement for trading opportunity.

The increasing demand for elephant healthcare in Thailand underscores the need for efficient resource management in veterinary hospitals. Treating sick elephants requires substantial medical inputs, and without accurate workload forecasting, hospitals risk shortages in staff, equipment, and medications, potentially compromising care quality. This study evaluated six time-series forecasting models— Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and its seasonal model (ARIMA/SARIMA), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), Trigonometric, Box-Cox ARMA Trend Seasonality (TBATS), Neural Network Time Series Regression (NNTR), Prophet, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—to predict monthly workloads at two major elephant hospitals: the National Elephant Institute (NEI) hospital in northern Thailand and the Department of Livestock Development (DLD) hospital in the northeast. Historical admission data spanning five years (NEI) and nine years (DLD) were analyzed. The ETS model achieved the highest accuracy at NEI, outperforming all other models by effectively capturing its stable and seasonal caseload patterns. In contrast, the NNTR model performed best at DLD, where it accommodated irregular fluctuations likely driven by external factors. Forecasts for 2025 suggested a consistent caseload at NEI (28–31 cases/month) and a declining trend at DLD, with the lowest projection in September. Although patient volume was low, each case demanded disproportionately high resources, justifying the need for anticipatory planning. This study provides the first demonstration that multi-model time-series forecasting can generate actionable insights using sparse, real-world data from wildlife hospitals. By embedding predictive analytics into routine operations, it offers a novel, scalable framework to support data-driven decision-making in endangered species care.