Analysing Financial Risks Inherent in the Iraqi Construction Sector Using Probability–Impact Matrix

Delays in construction projects remain a critical challenge in project management, often resulting in schedule deviations, cost overruns, and reduced project quality. This study investigates the primary risk factors contributing to delays in a high-rise educational building project (XYZ School) in Indonesia. Adopting a descriptive qualitative approach, data were collected through structured interviews and questionnaires with ten experienced construction professionals. The analysis utilized the Fishbone (Ishikawa) diagram to trace causal pathways and a probability–impact matrix to assess the severity and likelihood of each identified risk. Findings reveal that financial instability—particularly due to fluctuations in material prices (e.g., steel rising from IDR 8,800 to IDR 12,000/kg)—and poor cash flow management are the most critical causes of delay. Other significant risks include frequent design revisions, labor fatigue from excessive overtime, and adverse weather conditions. The study concludes with strategic recommendations to mitigate these risks, emphasizing improved financial planning, enhanced design coordination, and proactive contingency scheduling.

Delays and disruption are a common issue in both community and personal building programs The problem exists all throughout the world, but it is particularly prevalent in Iraq, where millions of dollars are squandered each time as a outcome. Delays and interruptions may have serious consequences not just for Iraq's construction plans, but also for the country's economic and social status. While numerous studies have been conducted to investigate the factors driving delays and disruption in Iraqi construction projects, slight consideration has been given to by what means project management implements and approaches have affected the occurrence of project delays and disruption. After analyzing the crucial reasons for delays and instability in public and private construction projects in Iraq, this paper aims to improve the recording and recommendations using Project Supervision concepts. A thorough investigation was conducted to identify the critical factors that are causing delays and disruptions in construction projects in Iraq's public and private sectors and present project management application procedures in order to establish recommendations to successfully reduce work disruptions and instability in Iraq This paper identifies the top crucial factors contributing to construction project delays and disruptions in Iraq. It further identifies project management Tools and techniques that, when used appropriately, have the potential to address the major causes of delays and interruptions. Following that, a new set of guidelines for applying Project Management methodologies and strategies to address the identified delay and disruption issues is provided, with the objective of aiding practitioners in minimizing the possibility for construction delays and interruption in Iraqi projects.

The purpose of the research is to look after establishing an appropriate solution for the problems in Iraqi construction projects which have been affected in the last years. It aims to evaluate the problems and then fix and/or at least mitigate them properly. It takes a construction project in the petroleum industry as a case study so that it can identify the realistic causes of project problems. In regard to research methodology, this research remarks on the root causes of project delay in the previous studies in Iraq, Oman and Qatar that is realised as a secondary data. Also, primary data is conducted to collect up to date information by using questionnaire. It exposes the main problems in Iraqi construction projects which are project delay, change in design, plan, scope and specifications and project cost overrun. The root cause of project delay is to accept the lowest bidding prices from the contractors and financial difficulty from the contractors. To improve the project management implementation that may require applying one of the project management methodologies in Iraqi construction projects. This research recommends applying PMBoK because it could deal with the project schedule which is the important thing recently and with cost, quality, communication and stakeholder.

Abstract: The 1990s witnessed several remarkable international financial crises around the world, especially in emerging market countries and can be called “the international financial crises and instability era” in the history of political economy. In the financial crisis literature, the potential reasons of these crises have been extensively studied. However, the role of financial derivative instruments as one of the possible key factors in international financial crises of the emerging markets in the 1990s has not been covered fully and not undertaken empirically, especially, by a time-series cross section analysis. So this paper aims to investigate the role and significance of financial derivatives in international financial crises of the emerging market countries in the 1990s, notably the South East Asian Crisis of 1997 and the Brazilian Crisis of 1999, in an analytical manner through a time-series cross section approach. The major findings indicate that financial derivatives, designed to hedge financial risks, have exposed emerging market economies to remarkable risks and financial instabilities in the 1990s and they had role in such crises both directly and indirectly.

Introduction: This study aims to create an expert system questionnaire and assess the potential impact of delays and project cost changes after disasters. These are important considerations for achieving sustainable development goals and restoring normalcy to communities affected by natural disasters like earthquakes, floods, and fires, environmental crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic, or man-made disasters like wars. Objectives: The study focuses on construction projects in Iraq after the 2003 war. This hypothesis of this paper came to suggest that utilizing an experience-based system, such as a knowledge-sharing or decision-support system, will help address the challenges faced during the rebuilding process after a disaster, and these challenges extend to include time constraints and limited resources, besides the necessity of faster decision making. There might be no effectiveness in traditional construction projects as in an emergency reconstruction projects scenario; therefore, innovative methodology such as experience system could be crucial. Methods: The expert system questionnaire was developed based on input from Iraqi experts and consultants in the construction industry. It includes 80 potential causes of delay, categorized into major and secondary factors. This methodology is being applied for the first time in project management in Iraq. Results: The results revealed that the main contributors to project delays are contractors, owners, external factors, consulting teams, and systems and instructions, with contribution ratios of 30, 20, 15, 10, and 7.5, respectively. The analysis also showed that secondary factors have a higher linear correlation value than primary factors. Conclusions: The study found that contractors and external factors, such as those seen in the Covid-19 pandemic, have the most significant impact on project delays, while other factors play a lesser role in project implementation delays.

In order to improve the laws and regulations of the financial system, in the construction of laws and regulations, the traditional financial risk Early Warning (EW) model is optimized. The financial prevention and control measures with legal protection are implemented to warn the financial risks, which plays an important role in the construction of the rule of law in the Financial Market (FM) and the establishment of financial risk prevention and control laws and regulations. This paper combines the deep learning model and the Markov regime Switching Vector Auto Regression (MS-VAR) model and constructs a regional financial risk EW model from the following aspects: macroeconomic operation EW indicators, regional economic risk EW indicators, regional financial institution risk EW indicators. The model is empirically researched and analyzed. The results show that the fluctuation trend of the macroeconomic pressure index in the time series is relatively large, and the overall fluctuation of the regional economic pressure index is small, and fluctuates around 0 in most periods. After the financial crisis, local governments stepped up their supervision of non-performing corporate and household loans. From 2011 to 2018, the non-performing loan ratio began to decline, and the overall fluctuation of the regional financial comprehensive stress index was small, fluctuating around 0. Due to the lack of legal regulation, from the perspective of the regional economy, the risk level is more likely to change from low risk to moderate risk, while the risk status is less likely to change from high risk to moderate risk. From the perspective of regional financial institutions, the probabilities of maintaining low risk and moderate risk are 0.98 and 0.97, respectively, which is stronger than maintaining the stability of high risk. From the perspective of the state transition of the regional financial risk composite index, the probability of maintaining low risk and high risk is 0.97 and 0.93, which is higher than maintaining the stability of medium risk. The Deep Learning (DL) regional financial risk EW MS-VAR model has strong risk prediction ability. The model can better analyze the conversion probability of regional financial risk EW index and has better risk EW ability. This paper enhances the role of legal systems in financial risk prevention and control. The regional financial risk EW model incorporating financial legal indicators can better describe the regional financial risk level, and the EW results are basically consistent with the actual situation. In order to effectively prevent financial risks and ensure the safety of the financial system, it is recommended that the government improve local debt management, improve financial regulations and systems, and improve the legislative level of financial legal supervision.

Prioritizing accurate cost contingency estimation through risk identification is essential for the success of construction projects. Traditional methods for identifying and classifying risk factors, such as workshops, interviews, and referencing similar projects, are predominantly manual, subjective, and time-consuming. To overcome these challenges, this study introduces a novel deep learning approach that leverages the BERTopic algorithm to extract cost-related risk factors from extensive project risk registers. The methodology consists of three key steps: (1) identifying risk factor topics; (2) visualizing topics, documents, and terms; and (3) revealing dynamic features of the topics. The effectiveness and practicality of this approach were demonstrated using risk register data from 277 public works projects in Hong Kong, with a comparative analysis against traditional topic modeling techniques, such as latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) and Top2Vec. This analysis, validated by a panel of project planning experts, successfully identified critical cost-related risk factors, such as design changes, market conditions, project delays, and underground conditions. The findings offer valuable insight for project planners, enabling more effective assessment and prioritization of cost risk factors in future construction projects.

In modern conditions of implementation Islamic model of banking, the issues of increasing efficiency of its activities and ensuring the long-term stability of Islamic banks come to the fore. Article analyzes the activities of Islamic banks in the post-crisis period, both in the global Islamic banking sector as a whole, and in the context of individual countries in which Islamic banks are predominantly or significantly represented, as well as financial risks that pose a threat of losses for Islamic banks. It has been concluded that the Islamic financial system is becoming one of the most important components of the international financial system, and Islamic banks within the global financial system are becoming more recognized and competitive, as they demonstrate a sufficiently high efficiency and stability of activity, a positive trend of development. Analysis found that Islamic banking has demonstrated its reliability and stability in the post-crisis period and continues to be a viable and effective mechanism of financial intermediation in the conditions of global financial system instability. The differences in the functioning and performance of Islamic banks in different countries within a single consolidated Islamic banking system have been revealed, a comparative analysis effectiveness of banking sectors a number of Muslim countries has been given, the directions of development of Islamic banking in them have been shown. Conclusions have been drawn on the need for Islamic banks to introduce effective mechanisms for monitoring and managing financial and investment risks in order to increase their ability to withstand adverse external factors, since in the future, despite the positive trends in the activities of Islamic banks, there are potential financial risks due to the growth of their current costs associated with the possibility of potential deterioration in the quality of assets and reduction in the level of profit.

Construction claims are inevitable and usually result in negative impacts on the project performance, and especially the project delays. This study aims to predict the time impacts and identify the practical responses to claim causes in building projects. Firstly, potential claim causes were identified through an extensive literature review and verified by a group of nine claim experts. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with these experts to establish the causal relationships among the identified claim causes. These relationships were then used to structure a Bayesian Network (BN) model for predicting the time impacts of each claim cause. The BN model comprised 13 claim causes of which only one claim cause (i.e. change orders) was independent. Subsequently, the historical data on the claim causes were collected from 112 actual building projects via a structured questionnaire survey. The data were then encoded and used as input to the model. A real case study project was used to demonstrate the predictive capability of the model. The results showed that the BN model is capable of effectively predicting the time impact levels of the claim causes. Next, twelve claim experts were invited to identify response strategies for each claim cause. It was found that the five response strategies commonly adopted for addressing claim causes are the: acceptance, avoidance, mitigation, contingency plan/reserve, and transfer. The present study also identified practical response methods for dealing with such claim causes. This study contributes a practical approach for forecasting the potential time impacts of the claim causes and formulating practical responses, thereby enhancing the claim management practices in building projects.

Purpose- The purpose of this study is to research some of the major problems and challenges in the construction industry that need to be addressed and solved by various stakeholders. Factors influencing technology use in building construction project management Inadequate risk management, lack of structure, poor communication, unrealistic expectations/bad forecasting, delayed cash flow and limited skills. Methodology- The study employs a quantitative study to explore the construction industry for building a competitive advantage. Findings- The analysis reveals that the construction industry faces various challenges that can impact project delivery, productivity, and overall performance. there are some common problems in the construction industry. Construction projects often encounter cost overruns due to factors such as inaccurate initial estimates, changes in project scope, unforeseen site conditions, and fluctuations in material and labor costs. Budgetary constraints can lead to financial strain and project delays. Delays in construction projects can occur due to factors like poor project planning and management, inclement weather, labor shortages, regulatory approvals, and issues with subcontractors or suppliers. These delays can result in increased costs, contractual disputes, and dissatisfaction among project stakeholders. Construction sites are inherently hazardous environments, and ensuring worker safety is a critical concern. Failure to comply with safety regulations, inadequate training, lack of safety protocols, and inadequate risk assessments can lead to accidents, injuries, and even fatalities. Effective communication and collaboration among project teams, including architects, engineers, contractors, and subcontractors, are essential for successful project delivery. Inadequate communication, misinterpretation of project requirements, and lack of coordination can lead to errors, rework, and delays. Maintaining high-quality construction standards is crucial, but the industry often faces challenges in ensuring consistent quality control. Conclusion - based upon the analysis findings it may be concluded that the difficulties can turn to competitive advantage with better strategic planning, risk management, and management of resources. The construction industry has a very important role in many countries for Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth. Keywords: construction industry, competitiveness, opportunities, JEL Codes: M11, M10, O10

Given the pivotal role that roads play in a nation's development, their construction often entails significant risks and challenges. Therefore, road construction projects must be successfully implemented. Numerous studies have been conducted to discover the key factors affecting road construction projects and their improvement. The aim of this study was to examine and pre-determine the factors affecting the success of road construction. Data was collected from experts in the field of road management to identify the factors influencing road construction projects in Iraq. Data was also used from interviews with road construction project managers. After analyzing this data, the study concluded that there are several external and internal constraints that affect project success. These constraints include site preparation, implemented infrastructure, land ownership restrictions, technical design constraints, administrative constraints, financial constraints, and security constraints. A plan-based analysis revealed that the highest percentage of constraints was related to technical design (22%). The study recommended addressing these constraints proactively to avoid future problems during project implementation while increasing the accuracy of planning and managing bills of quantities to reduce change orders. While ensuring cash flow for projects to avoid delays, the availability of skilled labor is also essential. This work contributes to existing knowledge by providing academics and project management experts with an additional set of variables to consider when attempting to predict the outcomes of road construction projects. Project managers and stakeholders in Iraq can benefit from the study's findings to enhance the likelihood of success of road construction projects.

Infrastructure development in Indonesia is key to improving connectivity and equitable development, although it often faces project management challenges such as errors in contract documents that trigger disputes. The government has adopted the Design and Build method to accelerate construction and reduce design errors, but this method often creates more disputes than conventional methods. This study evaluates the implementation of the Integrated Design and Build Contract system in government projects based on LKPP Regulation No. 12 of 2021 and the Contract Management Body of Knowledge (CMBOK) 7th Edition, focusing on integrating contract management processes and risk analysis. Through questionnaires, expert interviews, and statistical data analysis, this study identified 10 significant high-risk risks, such as incorrect selection of design consultants, inaccurate cost estimates, and frequent design changes, although unidentified utility risks were not proven to be significant to disputes. The results of the study provide strategic recommendations to improve the effectiveness of the contract system, reduce disputes, and support the performance of infrastructure projects in Indonesia.

PurposeRisks play an important role in the success of construction projects. Failure in identification and assessment of risks can lead to inadequacy in the process of managing risks, which in turn can critically affect the projects’ resources. A formal risk management is rarely practised in construction projects due to the lack of contractors’ awareness of key risks. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the investigation of risk factors in construction projects in Italy from contractors’ perspective.Design/methodology/approachSemi-structured interviews were conducted to collect data, based on which a total of ten key risks were ascertained. The identified risks were compared with the findings of the surveys conducted in the Australian and Chinese construction industry to address the unique risks associated with construction projects in Italy.FindingsThe key risks included delays in payments, client variations, design variations, inaccurate cost estimates, and tight project schedules. The comparison between those three countries specified the delays in payments and project funding problems as the most critical factors that are related to cultural influences and behaviour of clients. The findings assist contractors in the risk identification process, and can be applied to the development of a risk management framework for construction projects.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings of this study cannot be generalised statistically for the whole of Italy as it was constrained geographically, with respondents drawn only from a self-selection sample of construction projects in the Veneto region of Northern Italy. The findings represent a snapshot of the key potential internal and external risks from the perspective of contractors.Originality/valueThe results of the study specified the key risks of construction projects from the perspective of contractors which can contribute to risk management for construction projects.

Cost overruns are a common phenomenon observed in construction projects around the world. This is one of the biggest challenges experienced in the construction industry which leads to an over budget, and directly affects the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. This study aims to identify factors that significantly contribute to cost overruns for road network projects in Egypt during the implementation phase. The survey was conducted to determine the most critical factors affecting cost overrun for road network development projects. The results showed that the main factors causing cost overruns were inaccurate cost estimates, design modifications, quantity changes, order variations, political interference, inflation, specification changes, and scope of work changes.

Analyzing the nexus between financial risk and economic risk in India: Evidence through the lens of wavelet coherence and non-parametric approaches