Analysis of Software Cost Estimation Using Fuzzy Logic

The Software Cost Estimation (SCE) is one of most important issues in the cycle of development, management decision, and in the quality of software project. In the case of the lack of certainty of the exact cost for software projects' development, companies encounter with numerous challenges. Also, due to inaccurate cost estimates, making wrong decisions by project managers make irreparable damage. To reach this propos, the effective factors for developing software projects should be evaluated to ensure of the projects success. COCOMO model is the main model for SCE which acts based on criteria and quantities such as number of Line of Code (LOC) or the Function Point Analysis (FPA). Research in recent years has shown that COCOMO model has not a good performance in the SCE. In this paper, we studied SCE by using a hybrid of Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) which are Meta-Heuristic Algorithms. Test results show that proposed model, GA and ABC algorithms have less MRE errors values than the COCOMO model. Also, the hybrid model has better convergence comparing with the GA and ABC algorithms.

Software cost and time estimation is the process of estimating the cost and time required to develop a software system. Software cost and time estimation supports the planning and tracking of software projects. Effectively controlling the expensive investment of software development is one of the important issues in software project management. Estimating software development cost with high precision is still a great challenge for project managers, because it allows for considerable financial and strategic planning. Software cost estimation refers to the predictions of the likely amount of effort, time, and staffing levels required to build a software system. A very helpful form of cost estimation is the one made at an early stage during a project, when the costing of the project is proposed for approval. However, estimates at the early stages of the development are the most difficult to obtain. In this paper a novel Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) based on soft computing approach is proposed for software cost estimation. This model carries some of the desirable features of neural networks approach, such as learning ability and good interpretability, while maintaining the merits of the COCOMO model. Unlike the standard neural networks approach, the proposed model can be interpreted and validated by experts, and has good generalisation capability. The model deals effectively with imprecise and uncertain input and enhances the reliability of software cost estimates. From the experimental results, it was concluded that, by the proposed neural network model, the accuracy of cost estimation can be improved and the estimated cost can be very close to the actual cost.

Effort estimations are a crucial aspect of software development. The tasks should be completed before the start of any software project. Accurate estimations increase the chances of project success, and inaccurate information can lead to severe issues. This study systematically reviewed the literature on effort-estimating models from 2015-2024, identifying 69 relevant studies from various publications to compile information on various software work estimation models. This review aims to analyze the models proposed in the literature and their classification, the metrics used for accuracy measurement, the leading model that has been chiefly applied for effort estimation, and the benchmark datasets available. The study utilized 542 relevant articles on software development, cost, effort, prediction, estimation, and modelling techniques in the search strategy. After 194 selections, the authors chose 69 articles to understand ML applications in SEE comprehensively. The researchers used a scoring system to assess each study’s responses (from 0 to 5 points) to their research questions. This helped them identify credible studies with higher scores for a comprehensive review aligned with its objectives. The data extraction process identified 91% (63) of 69 studies as either highly or somewhat relevant, demonstrating a successful search strategy for analysis. The literature review on SEE indicates a growing preference for ML-based models in 59% of selected studies. 17% of the studies chosen favor hybrid models to overcome software development challenges. We qualitatively analyzed all the literature on software effort estimation using expert judgment, formal estimation techniques, ML-based techniques, and hybrid techniques. We discovered that researchers have frequently used ML-based models to estimate software effort and are currently in the lead. This study also explores the application of feature importance and selection in machine learning models for Software Effort Estimation (SEE) using popular algorithms like support Vector Machine (SVM), AdaBoost (AB), Gradient Boost (GB), and Random Forest (RF) with six benchmark datasets like CHINA, COCOMO-NASA2, COCOMO, COCOMO81, DESHARNAIS, and KITCHENHAM. We analyze the dataset descriptions and feature importance of the dataset analysis using ML models for choosing crucial play attributes in SEE.

Software cost and effort estimation using dragonfly whale optimized multilayer perceptron neural network

Estimation models in software engineering are used to predict some important attributes of future entities such as software development effort, software reliability and programmers productivity. Among these models, those estimating software effort have motivated considerable research in recent years. Estimation by analogy is one of the attractive techniques in software effort estimation field. However, the procedure used in estimation by analogy is not yet able to handle correctly categorical data. In this paper, we propose a new approach based on reasoning by analogy, fuzzy logic and linguistic quantifiers to estimate effort when the software project is described either by categorical or numerical data. Fuzzy logic-based cost estimation models are more appropriate when vague and imprecise information is to be accounted for. Fuzzy systems try to behave just like the processes of the brain with a rule base. In our proposed method the effort and the cost can be estimated using the Fuzzy logic based analogy method and the cost can be calculated. The performance of the proposed system is calculated using MARE (Mean Absolute Relative Error).

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The development of a successfull software depends upon the accurate estimation, as various factors are responsible for the overall assessment of any project. The Sofware Cost Estimation is the most complicated and challenging task in software industry. Many estimation models are introduced by the time, that concludes estimation is not a precise science and demanding of new methodologies should be proposed day by day. Software Cost Estimation of a project is vital to the acceptance or rejection of the development of software project. Various techniques have been introduced. This paper enlightens two categories of Software Cost Estimation techniques ie Algorithimic and Non Algorithimic. This paper evaluates the Algorithmic Models such as SLIM, COCOMO, Function Points and Non Algorithimic Models such as Analogy, Expert Judgement which are used to estimate software costs. Poor planning frequently leads to project failure and considerable outcomes for the project team. Software project managers should be aware of the increasing of project failures. In this paper, several existing methods for software cost estimation are illustrated and their aspects will be discussed.

Software Requirements Changes is a typical phenomenon in any software development project. Restricting incoming changes might cause user dissatisfaction and allowing too many changes might cause delay in project delivery. Moreover, the acceptance or rejection of the change requests become challenging for software project managers when these changes are occurred in Software Development Phase. Where in Software Development Phase software artifacts are not in consistent state such as: some of the class artifacts are Fully Developed, some are Half Developed, some are Major Developed, some are Minor Developed and some are Not Developed yet. However, software effort estimation and change impact analysis are the two most common techniques which might help software project managers in accepting or rejecting change requests during Software Development Phase. The aim of this research is to develop a new software change effort estimation model which helps software project manager in estimating the effort for software Requirement Changes during Software Development Phase. Thus, this research has analyzed the existing effort estimation models and change impact analysis techniques for Softwrae Development Phase from the literature and proposed a new software change effort estimation model by combining change impact analysis technique with effort estimation model. Later, the new proposed model has been evaluated by selecting four small size software projects as case selections in applying experimental approch. The experiment results show that the overall Mean Magnitude Relative Error value produced by the new proposed model is under 25%. Hence it is concluded that the new proposed model is applicable in estimating the amount of effort for requirement changes during SDP.

Organizations are struggling to deliver the expected software functionality and quality in scheduled time and prescribed budget. Despite availability of numerous advanced effort estimation techniques overestimation and underestimation occur on a vast scale and results in project failures and significant loss to the organization. The paper proposes machine learning based approach to calculate the optimized effort and level of confidence. Genetically trained neural network evaluates the optimum effort for given COCOMO II variables. The level of confidence is evaluated by fuzzy logic and indicates the percentage that the predicted effort will not exceed the limits.

Software effort estimation plays an important role in the software development process: inaccurate estimation leads to poorutilization of resources and possibly to software project failure. Many software effort estimation techniques have been tried inan effort to develop models that generate optimal estimation accuracy, one of which is machine learning. It is crucial in machinelearning to use a model that will maximize accuracy and minimize uncertainty for the purposes of software effort estimation.However, the process of selecting the best algorithm for estimation is complex and expert-dependent. This paper proposes anapproach to analyzing datasets, automatically building estimation models with various machine learning techniques, and evaluatingand comparing their results to find the model that produces the most accurate and surest estimates for a specific dataset.The proposed approach to automated model selection combines the Bayesian information criterion, correlation coefficients, andPRED measures.

Over the past ten couple of years, there is a variety of effort models proposed by academicians and practitioners at early stage of software development life cycle. Some addressed that efforts could be predicted using Lines of Codes(LOC) and COCOMO, others emphasized that it could be made using Function Point Analysis(FPA) or others. The study seeks to develop a model that estimates software effort by studying and analyzing small and medium scale application software. To develop such a model, 50 completed software projects are collected from a software company. With the sample data, design team factors are identified and extracted. By applying them to simple regression analyses, a prediction of software of effort estimates with accuracy of MMRE = 9% was constructed. The results give several benefits. First, the estimation problems are minimized due to the simple procedure used in identifying those factors. Second, the predicted software projects are only limited to a specific environment rather than being based upon industry environment. We believe the accuracy of effort estimates can be improved. According to the results analyzed, the work shows that it is possible to build up simple and useful prediction model based on data extracted at the early stage of software development life cycle. We hope this model can provide valuable ideas and suggestions for project designers for planning and controlling software projects in near future.

Accurately estimating software development costs is paramount for software project success. Global attention has focused on addressing inaccuracies in software cost estimating models leading to numerous approaches. Although machine learning algorithm techniques have witnessed improvement, the challenge of varying bias and variance from weaker learners persists, leading to the adoption of ensemble learning techniques for increased accuracy. This paper extends previous work on ensemble learning Software Cost Estimation (SCE) approach through the use of a Stacking Ensemble Learning Model for SCE (SELM-SCE) to improve the accuracy of software cost estimation. A combination of unsupervised and supervised machine learning methods were used on software projects. Two datasets (Desharnais and Maxwell) for software cost estimation were used for the model training and validation using cross-validation techniques. The proposed SELM-SCE model developed was subjected to two training models: K-Means and SMOTE technique to solve the problem of overfitting and poor performance caused by data imbalance. The performance of the proposed SELM-SCE model was first evaluated against three regression performance metrics: coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The results showed that the SMOTE SELM-SCE without unsupervised machine learning improves the accuracy of the model performance. The performance of SELM-SCE was compared with existing models using prediction accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score classification performance metrics. The results from the SELM-SCE model showed remarkable improvement when compared to the existing model

An effective method for finding the relevant number (window size) and the elapsed time (window age) of recently completed projects has proven elusive in software effort estimation. Although these two parameters significantly affect the prediction accuracy, there is no effective method to stratify and sample chronological projects to improve prediction performance of software effort estimation models. Exemplary projects (Bellwether) representing the training set have been empirically validated to improve the prediction accuracy in the domain of software defect prediction. However, the concept of Bellwether and its effect have not been empirically proven in software effort estimation as a method of selecting exemplary/relevant projects with defined window size and age. In view of this, we introduce a novel method for selecting relevant and recently completed projects referred to as Bellwether moving window for improving the software effort prediction accuracy. We first sort and cluster a pool of N projects and apply statistical stratification based on Markov chain modeling to select the Bellwether moving window. We evaluate the proposed approach using the baseline Automatically Transformed Linear Model on the ISBSG dataset. Results show that (1) Bellwether effect exist in software effort estimation dataset, (2) the Bellwether moving window with a window size of 82 to 84 projects and window age of 1.5 to 2 years resulted in an improved prediction accuracy than the traditional approach.

The software cost estimation aims to predict the most realistic effort that is required to finish a software project and so it is critical to the success of a software project management. A Software Cost Estimation affects nearly all management activities, including project bidding, resource allocation and project planning. It is affected by a number of factors, such as implementation efficiency, as well as how much the various reviews and studies completed prior to the software development stage cost. Accurate cost estimation will help us to complete the project on time and within budget. Accurate estimation is important because it has led to extensive research into the methods of software cost estimation. Some important software cost estimation methods have been studied in this research work. In addition, we have set out own criteria, which has been used to compare all the different selected methods. We have also given a score for each evaluation criteria, so that we can compare the different methods numerically for cost estimation. Our observations have shown that it is best to use a number of different estimating techniques or cost models, and then compare the results before determining the reasons for any of the large variations. None of the methods are necessarily better or worse than the others. We found, in fact, that their strengths and weaknesses often complement each other. Therefore, the main conclusion is that there is no one single technique that is best for every situation, and the results of a number of different approaches need to be carefully considered to discover what is the most likely to produce estimates that are realistic.

Accurate software cost and schedule estimation are essential for software project success. Often it referred to as the black art because of its complexity and uncertainty, software estimation is not as difficult or puzzling as people think. In fact, generating accurate estimates is straightforward -- once you understand the intensity of uncertainty and framework for the modeling process. The mystery to successful software estimation -- distilling academic information and real-world experience into a practical guide for working software professionals. Instead of arcane treatises and rigid modeling techniques, this will guide highlights a proven set of procedures, understandable formulas, and heuristics that individuals and development teams can apply to their projects to help achieve estimation proficiency with choose appropriate development approaches In the early stage of software life cycle project manager are inefficient to estimate the effort, schedule, cost estimation and its development approach. This in turn, confuses the manager to bid effectively on software project and choose incorrect development approach. That will directly effect on productivity cycle and increase level of uncertainty. This becomes a strong cause of project failure. So to avoid such problem if we know level and sources of uncertainty in model design, It will directive the developer to design accurate software cost and schedule estimation. Which are essential for software project success. However once the required efforts have estimated, little is done to recalibrate and reduce the uncertainty of the initial estimates. This paper demonstrates terminology and typology of uncertainty is presented together with a framework for the modeling process, Brief reviews have been made of 14 different (partly complementary) methods commonly used in uncertainty assessment its interaction with the broader system development process and the role of uncertainty at different stages in the modeling processes.. The applicability of these methods has been mapped according to purpose of application, stage of the modeling process and source and type of uncertainty addressed.