Application of temporal streamflow descriptors in hydrologic model parameter estimation

Neural complexity is thought to be associated with efficient information processing but the exact nature of this relation remains unclear. Here, the relationship of fluid intelligence (gf) with the resting‐state EEG (rsEEG) complexity over different timescales and different electrodes was investigated. A 6‐min rsEEG blocks of eyes open were analyzed. The results of 119 subjects (57 men, mean age = 22.85 ± 2.84 years) were examined using multivariate multiscale sample entropy (mMSE) that quantifies changes in information richness of rsEEG in multiple data channels at fine and coarse timescales. gf factor was extracted from six intelligence tests. Partial least square regression analysis revealed that mainly predictors of the rsEEG complexity at coarse timescales in the frontoparietal network (FPN) and the temporo‐parietal complexities at fine timescales were relevant to higher gf. Sex differently affected the relationship between fluid intelligence and EEG complexity at rest. In men, gf was mainly positively related to the complexity at coarse timescales in the FPN. Furthermore, at fine and coarse timescales positive relations in the parietal region were revealed. In women, positive relations with gf were mostly observed for the overall and the coarse complexity in the FPN, whereas negative associations with gf were found for the complexity at fine timescales in the parietal and centro‐temporal region. These outcomes indicate that two separate time pathways (corresponding to fine and coarse timescales) used to characterize rsEEG complexity (expressed by mMSE features) are beneficial for effective information processing.

Continuous rainfall is essential for accurately modeling flood responses in urban areas and designing effective real-time control systems. The first step to generating continuous rainfall simulation is to develop an event-based simulation. However, event-based stochastic rainfall generators do not include an analytical relationship between coarse and fine timescales, and the way they link the two scales is through complicated calibrations that are difficult to replicate, when applying the methodologies in new scenarios. Using Eagleson’s equations, we developed a simple method to obtain event depth parameters from monthly rainfall. These allow generating constant-intensity rainfall events, while preserving the correlation between depth and duration of the event. We applied the model at four stations in different countries and climates to verify its capability of reproducing the parameters at fine and coarse timescales, obtaining good results. However, the most realistic values of the standard deviation of storm depths occur when it is greater than the mean. This is because the probability density function of rainfall depth should be a strictly decreasing function across its entire range, as heavy rainfalls tend to be less frequent than minimal rainfall; function shape that is achieved in gamma distribution when standard deviation exceeds the mean.

The temporal resolution of observed data is a critical element in determining the parameters, prediction performance, and applicability of hydrological models. In this study, runoff simulations were performed at different temporal resolutions using the Xinanjiang model to evaluate the influence of temporal resolution on the model parameters and performance. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters, the posterior distribution of the sensitive parameters was derived using the Bayesian method and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm at different temporal resolutions. The transformation functions of the model parameters were put forward to transform the parameters according to the regulatory between the parameters and time-steps on the basis of the parameters posterior distribution. The model performance and uncertainty for runoff simulation were compared and discussed at each temporal resolution. The results show that (1) the parameters related with the process of the water balance and runoff routing are identified as sensitive to the temporal resolutions, and there exist linear or power function relationships between parameter values at different temporal resolutions; and (2) the quantitative relationship equations have been verified to have good capacity for model simulation when the model parameters are transformed from other temporal resolution.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become increasingly popular for estimating the posterior probability distribution of parameters in hydrologic models. However, MCMC methods require the a priori definition of a proposal or sampling distribution, which determines the explorative capabilities and efficiency of the sampler and therefore the statistical properties of the Markov Chain and its rate of convergence. In this paper we present an MCMC sampler entitled the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM‐UA), which is well suited to infer the posterior distribution of hydrologic model parameters. The SCEM‐UA algorithm is a modified version of the original SCE‐UA global optimization algorithm developed by Duan et al. [1992]. The SCEM‐UA algorithm operates by merging the strengths of the Metropolis algorithm, controlled random search, competitive evolution, and complex shuffling in order to continuously update the proposal distribution and evolve the sampler to the posterior target distribution. Three case studies demonstrate that the adaptive capability of the SCEM‐UA algorithm significantly reduces the number of model simulations needed to infer the posterior distribution of the parameters when compared with the traditional Metropolis‐Hastings samplers.

This reference is for an abstract only. A full paper was not submitted for this conference. Abstract AVO (amplitude-varying-with-offset) is a seismic prestack inversion technique for estimating elastic parameters of the subsurface. The seismic AVO inversion problem can be formulated as a linearized or nonlinear inverse problem. It is a multidimensional and highly ill-posed inverse problem. It is affected by strong noise and measurement uncertainty. Therefore, in seismic AVO analysis, the goal is not only to find the model that best-fits the data, but also to characterize the uncertainty of the analysis. Uncertainty characterization of seismic analysis makes the geophysical interpretation more reliable. The Bayesian formalism generally constitutes a powerful approach for solving many seismic inverse problems. It allows combining available prior knowledge with the information contained in the seismic data. The solution of a Bayesian inverse problem is given by the joint posterior distribution of model parameters. Stochastic approximations of the true posterior are exemplified by the MCMC method and more recently by the particle filtering (PF) method. For most seismic inverse problems, stochastic approximation techniques are computationally unappealing. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) is the simplest Bayesian method for estimating model parameters. It provides the explanation that maximizes the posterior distribution. The maximum likelihood (ML) is a popular non-Bayesian method for estimating model parameters. It provides the explanation that maximizes the likelihood of the data. It assumes that the model parameters are deterministic and omits the pertinent prior knowledge on them. In practice, both MAP and ML point estimators have severe problems with over-fitting the data and model order estimation. In this paper, the recently-developed variational Bayesian learning is proposed as a new method for solving the linearized seismic AVO inversion problem. Variational Bayesian learning allows the true joint posterior distribution of model parameters to be approximated by a simpler approximating ensemble for which the required inferences are tractable. The main advantage in resorting to variational Bayesian learning is its robustness to the over-fitting problem, which is major in practice. This probabilistic machine learning method allows finding an optimum balance between the representation power and the model complexity of the data.

Due to the increasing injection of intermittent power sources (solar+wind) into a common grid, dispatchable sources such as hydro power should be able to help reduce the variability in load and the variability in generation caused by the intermittent sources. A hydro generator should be able to operate short-term beyond its thermal capability limit. This requires the monitoring of internal temperatures in the hydro generator. In this paper, a thermal model of an air-cooled synchronous generator is presented, emphasizing the various aspects of parameter estimation and identifiability using Bayesian inference. Inferences are drawn from the posterior distributions of the parameters and initial conditions, dispersion (spreading) of particles and sampling efficiency, practical parameter identifiability, and model mismatch with experiments. Results show extremely narrow parameter distributions. It is early to generalize about the posterior distribution of air-related and metal-related parameters of the air-cooled synchronous generator based on the single experimental data presented here.

BackgroundTranslating a known metabolic network into a dynamic model requires reasonable guesses of all enzyme parameters. In Bayesian parameter estimation, model parameters are described by a posterior probability distribution, which scores the potential parameter sets, showing how well each of them agrees with the data and with the prior assumptions made.ResultsWe compute posterior distributions of kinetic parameters within a Bayesian framework, based on integration of kinetic, thermodynamic, metabolic, and proteomic data. The structure of the metabolic system (i.e., stoichiometries and enzyme regulation) needs to be known, and the reactions are modelled by convenience kinetics with thermodynamically independent parameters. The parameter posterior is computed in two separate steps: a first posterior summarises the available data on enzyme kinetic parameters; an improved second posterior is obtained by integrating metabolic fluxes, concentrations, and enzyme concentrations for one or more steady states. The data can be heterogenous, incomplete, and uncertain, and the posterior is approximated by a multivariate log-normal distribution. We apply the method to a model of the threonine synthesis pathway: the integration of metabolic data has little effect on the marginal posterior distributions of individual model parameters. Nevertheless, it leads to strong correlations between the parameters in the joint posterior distribution, which greatly improve the model predictions by the following Monte-Carlo simulations.ConclusionWe present a standardised method to translate metabolic networks into dynamic models. To determine the model parameters, evidence from various experimental data is combined and weighted using Bayesian parameter estimation. The resulting posterior parameter distribution describes a statistical ensemble of parameter sets; the parameter variances and correlations can account for missing knowledge, measurement uncertainties, or biological variability. The posterior distribution can be used to sample model instances and to obtain probabilistic statements about the model's dynamic behaviour.

Hydrological models generally contain parameters that cannot be measured directly, but can only be meaningfully inferred by calibration against a historical record of input–output data. While considerable progress has been made in the development and application of automatic procedures for model calibration, such methods have received criticism for their lack of rigor in treating uncertainty in the parameter estimates. In this paper, we apply the recently developed Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) to stochastic calibration of the parameters in the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) model using historical data from the Leaf River in Mississippi. The SCEM-UA algorithm is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler that provides an estimate of the most likely parameter set and underlying posterior distribution within a single optimization run. In particular, we explore the relationship between the length and variability of the streamflow data and the Bayesian uncertainty associated with the SAC-SMA model parameters and compare SCEM-UA derived parameter values with those obtained using deterministic SCE-UA calibrations. Most significantly, for the Leaf River catchments under study our results demonstrate that most of the 13 SAC-SMA parameters are well identified by calibration to daily streamflow data suggesting that this data contains more information than has previously been reported in the literature.

The Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) is a widely used performance measure because of its advantages in orthogonally considering bias, correlation and variability. However, in most Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, error-based formal likelihood functions are commonly applied. Due to its statistically informal characteristics, using the original KGE in MCMC methods leads to problems in posterior density ratios due to negative KGE values and high proposal acceptance rates resulting in less identifiable parameters. In this study we propose adapting the original KGE using a gamma distribution to solve these problems and to apply KGE as an informal likelihood function in the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis DREAM(ZS), which is an advanced MCMC algorithm. We compare our results with the formal likelihood function to show whether our approach is robust and plausible to explore posterior distributions of model parameters and to reproduce the discharge behaviors. For that, we set three case studies that contain different uncertainties. Our results show that model parameters cannot be identified and the uncertainty of discharge simulations is large when directly using the original KGE. Our approach finds similar posterior distributions of model parameters compared to the formal likelihood function. Even though the acceptance rate of the adapted KGE is lower than the formal likelihood function for some systems, the convergence rate (efficiency) is similar between the two approaches for the calibration of real hydrological systems showing generally acceptable performances. We also show that both the adapted KGE and the formal likelihood function provide low performances for low flows, with the larger overestimations obtained from using the formal likelihood function. Furthermore, the adapted KGE approach behaves closely to the formal likelihood function in terms of the correlation between simulations and observations. Thus, our study provides a feasible way to use KGE as an informal likelihood in the MCMC algorithm and provides possibilities to combine multiple data for better and more realistic model calibrations.

SummaryAccurate prediction of the solubility of chemical substances in solvents remains a challenge. The sparsity of high-quality solubility data is recognized as the biggest hurdle in the development of robust data-driven methods for practical use. Nonetheless, the effects of the quality and quantity of data on aqueous solubility predictions have not yet been scrutinized. In this study, the roles of the size and the quality of data sets on the performances of the solubility prediction models are unraveled, and the concepts of actual and observed performances are introduced. In an effort to curtail the gap between actual and observed performances, a quality-oriented data selection method, which evaluates the quality of data and extracts the most accurate part of it through statistical validation, is designed. Applying this method on the largest publicly available solubility database and using a consensus machine learning approach, a top-performing solubility prediction model is achieved.

Understanding niche partitioning of closely related sympatric species is a fundamental goal in ecology. Acoustic communication space can be considered a resource, and the acoustic niche hypothesis posits that competition between species may lead to partitioning of communication space. Here, we compare the calling behavior of two sympatric Bornean hornbill species—the rhinoceros hornbill (Buceros rhinoceros) and the helmeted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil)—to test for evidence of acoustic niche partitioning. Both hornbill species emit calls heard over many kilometers and have similar habitat preferences which is predicted to result in interspecific competition. We collected acoustic data on sympatric populations of both hornbill species using 10 autonomous recording units in Danum Valley Conservation Area, Sabah, Malaysia. We found that there was substantial spectral overlap between the calls of the two species, indicating the potential for competition for acoustic space. To test for evidence of acoustic niche partitioning, we investigated spatial and temporal patterns of calling in each species. Both hornbills were strictly diurnal and called throughout the day, and we were equally likely to detect both species at each of our recorders. We did not find evidence of temporal acoustic avoidance at a relatively coarse timescale when we divided our dataset into 1 h bins, but we did find evidence of temporal acoustic avoidance at a finer timescale when we used null models to compare the observed duration of overlapping calls to the expected amount of overlap due to chance.Abstract in Malay is available with online material.

An accurate forecast of runoff is very significant so that there is ample time for the pertinent authority to issue a forewarning of the impending flood. Due to the highly dimension and nonlinear, the calibration of hydrological model become very complex, so the unique “best” parameter set can not be obtained easily. In this study, an MCMC sampler entitled the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm(SCEM-UA) is presented, which is well suited to infer the posterior distribution of hydrologic model parameters. This algorithm operates by merging the strengths of the Metropolis algorithm, controlled random search, competitive evolution, and complex shuffling in order to continuously update the proposal distribution and evolve the sampler to the posterior target distribution. Therefore, SCEM-UA is applied in this study to calibrate a lumped Xinanjiang hydrological model having 16 parameters. Three types of data were used for Xinanjiang model: rainfall, evaporation and discharge. One years’ data were used for calibration and one years’ data were used for testing. The criterion used to measure the fitness of the calculated against the observed discharges was the Deterministic Coefficient (DC) and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE). The calibration processes included first of all defining the feasible domains of the model parameters, and initialize the parameters in the feasible domains, then the model parameters were iteratively evaluated and updated, until the terminal condition was satisfied. In order to test the efficiency of the SCEM-UA, Genetic algorithm (GA) is also employed for comparison. The results showed that both calibration and testing results are satisfactory: the DC values of SCEM-UA for the calibration period is 0.79, which is much higher than that of GA, 0.73, and the DC for the testing period is 0.81, which is also better than GA, the same as the RMSE. Visual examinations shows in the high peak flood event, the simulated runoff by SCEM-UA is much better than that by GA.

Worldwide, riverine fish are the target of environmental water because populations have declined in lotic river habitats following river regulation. Murray cod is an endangered Australian riverine fish with remaining populations associated with lotic river reaches with instream habitat, including some creeks operated as part of irrigation systems. Our objectives were to develop a life history model, apply the building block method of environmental flows to enhance the abundance of juvenile Murray cod and promote population recovery. From 2008 to 2018 we evaluated changes to Murray cod juvenile abundance before and after implementation of a perennial environmental flow regime that began in 2013. During the first year of the environmental flow, larvae were collected as evidence of spawning. Murray cod abundance can be enhanced with environmental flows that target: (1) an annual spring spawning or recruitment flow with no rapid water level drops; (2) maximising hydrodynamic complexity (i.e. flowing habitats that are longitudinally continuous and hydrodynamically complex); and (3) an annual base winter connection flow. Recognition that incorporating hydraulics (water level and velocity) at fine and coarse time scales, over spatial scales that reflect life histories, provides broader opportunities to expand the scope of environmental flows to help restore imperilled fish species in regulated ecosystems.

A two-tier Internet data center management scheme, TACOMA, with thermal-aware server provisioning (TASP) in one tier, and thermal-aware workload distribution (TAWD) in the other is proposed. TASP and TAWD coordinate to maximize the energy savings by leveraging the workload dynamics, at coarse and fine time scale, respectively. TACOMA is aware of the QoS constraints, the energy proportionality of servers, and the potential trade-off between cooling and computing power. The obtained energy savings are a combination of suspending idle servers, using servers at their peak efficiency, and avoiding heat recirculation.

An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) is a time series model that is applied in everyday life for pattern recognition and forecasting. The ARMA model contains a noise which is assumed to have a specific distribution. The noise is often considered to have a Gaussian distribution. However in applications, the noise is sometimes found that does not have a Gaussian distribution. The first objective is to develop the ARMA model in which noise has a Laplacian distribution. The second objective is to estimate the parameters of the ARMA model. The ARMA model parameters include ARMA model orders, ARMA model coefficients, and noise variance. The parameter estimation of the ARMA model is carried out in the Bayesian framework. In the Bayesian framework, the ARMA model parameters are treated as a variable that has a prior distribution. The prior distribution for the ARMA model parameters is combined with the likelihood function for the data to get the posterior distribution for the parameter. The posterior distribution for parameters has a complex form so that the Bayes estimator cannot be determined analytically. The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was adopted to determine the Bayes estimator. The first result, the ARMA model can be developed by assuming Laplacian distribution noise. The second result, the performance of the algorithm was tested using simulation studies. The simulation shows that the reversible jump MCMC algorithm can estimate the parameters of the ARMA model correctly.