Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Linear Regression for Flood Prediction in Mohawk River, New York

This paper presents techniques for studying the influence of the climatic and other variables for the explanation of the water use with an example of time series in Gainesville, Florida. A statistical methodology is described for separating the different time scale components in time series of water use, namely, long term component, seasonal component, and short term component. We analyze each component separately and we prove that the temperature, precipitation, soil temperature, and relative humidity time series are the main climatic factors for the explanation of the long term, seasonal and short term component of the water use time series. Part of the residuals derived from the linear regression of the long term component of the water use can be explained by the unemployment rate. We also show that with the decomposition of the water use time series the explanation of the water use has been improved approximately two times. The explanation of the long term component of water use by the long term regional weather parameters can enable us to the long term regional prediction of the water resources availabilities. This methodology can be applied for studying the water use time series in other locations, as well.

It is key index of air-jet texturing yarn quality such as air-jet texturing yarn strength and so on. It can well control air-jet texturing yarn quality by predicting yarn strength and so on. Generally, it is normal used to predict yarn strength such as Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and shallow Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Because the processing of air-jet texturing yarn production has time sequence, the paper proposes a new deep neural network, it is Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM). It used 1800 sets of data to train LSTM, SVR and ANN. It tested LSTM, MLR, SVR and ANN with 200 sets of data. Experimental results show that LSTM neural network is the best accuracy among these four algorithms.

PM2.5, fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 μm, is associated with a range of health problems. Monitoring PM2.5 levels at the community scale is crucial for understanding personal exposure and implementing preventive measures. While monitoring agencies around the world, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), provide accurate data, the spatial coverage is limited due to a sparse monitoring network. Recently, the emergence of low-cost air quality sensor networks has enabled the availability of air quality data with higher spatiotemporal resolution, which is more representative of personal exposure. However, concerns persist regarding the sensitivity, noise, and reliability of data from these low-cost sensors. In this study, we analyzed PM2.5 data from both EPA and Purple Air (PA) sensors in Cook County, Illinois, with two primary goals: (1) understanding the differential impact of meteorological factors on PA and EPA sensor networks and (2) provide a mathematical approach to quantify the individual impact of correlated predictors on both short-term and baseline variations in noisy time series data. We used the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter to separate the time series into short-term and baseline components, followed by fitting linear models to quantify the impact of meteorological predictors, including temperature, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), and wind direction (WD). Furthermore, we applied the Lindeman, Merenda, and Gold (LMG) method to these linear models to quantify the individual contribution of each predictor in the presence of multicollinearity. Our results show that the PM2.5 data from PA sensors exhibit higher sensitivity to meteorological factors, particularly wind speed, in the short-term and RH in the baseline component. This method provides a structured approach for analyzing noisy sensor data under diverse environmental conditions.

Review of <i>Environmental and Hydrological Systems Modeling</i> by A. W. JayawardenaCRC Press Taylor &amp; Francis Group, Boca Raton, FL 33487; 2014; ISBN 978-0-415-46532-8; 516 pp.; $99.95.

The test- day model is a method of choice for the study of milk yield traits and this method is very important in countries like India where herd size is generally smaller and lacking well-established milk recording system. The present study was aimed to predict first lactation milk yield on the basis of test day yield in Gir cows and comparison was made between the relative efficiency of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models. First lactation records of 513Gir cows sired by 75 bulls spread over a period of 34 years (1981to 2014), maintained at Cattle Breeding Farm, Junagadh were used for the study. The data of monthly test-day milk yield (MTMY)was divided into seven sets. ANN was used with backpropagation Bayesian regularization (BR) algorithm and MLR was used with backward elimination method. The accuracy of prediction of first lactation milk yield in MLR was lower than the accuracy of ANN in all the test data sets. The Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of prediction were lower in ANN as compared to MLR. The optimum equation had total four variables (test days)viz. TD2 to TD5 for prediction of First Lactation 305-Days Milk Yield (FL305DMY). This equation gave an accuracy of prediction of 76.02% by MLR and 87.69% by ANN model till 125th days of lactation i.e. 5th monthly test day.

The present study focuses on the application of artificial neural network (ANN) and Multiple linear Regression (MLR) analysis for developing a model to predict the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) and split tensile strength (STS) of the fiber reinforced clay stabilized with grass ash, fly ash and lime. Unconfined compressive strength and Split tensile strength are the nonlinear functions and becomes difficult for developing a predicting model. Artificial neural networks are the efficient tools for predicting models possessing non linearity and are used in the present study along with regression analysis for predicting both UCS and STS. The data required for the model was obtained by systematic experiments performed on only Kaolin clay, clay mixed with varying percentages of fly ash, grass ash, polypropylene fibers and lime as between 10-20%, 1-4%, 0-1.5% and 0-8% respectively. Further, the optimum values of the various stabilizing materials were determined from the experiments. The effect of stabilization is observed by performing compaction tests, split tensile tests and unconfined compression tests. ANN models are trained using the inputs and targets obtained from the experiments. Performance of ANN and Regression analysis is checked with statistical error of correlation coefficient (R) and both the methods predict the UCS and STS values quite well; but it is observed that ANN can predict both the values of UCS as well as STS simultaneously whereas MLR predicts the values separately. It is also observed that only STS values can be predicted efficiently by MLR.

Sediment load estimation is generally required for study and development of water resources system. In this regard, artificial neural network (ANN) is the most widely used modeling tool especially in data-constraint regions. This research attempts to combine SSA (singular spectrum analysis) with ANN, hereafter called SSA-ANN model, with expectation to improve the accuracy of sediment load predicted by the existing ANN approach. Two different catchments located in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) were selected for the study and the model performance was measured by several statistical indices. In comparing with ANN, the proposed SSA-ANN model shows its better performance repeatedly in both catchments. In validation stage, SSA-ANN is superior for larger Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency about 24% in Ban Nong Kiang catchment and 7% in Nam Mae Pun Luang catchment. Other statistical measures of SSA-ANN are better than those of ANN as well. This improvement reveals the importance of SSA which filters noise containing in the raw time series and transforms the original input data to be near normal distribution which is favorable to model simulation. This coupled model is also recommended for the prediction of other water resources variables because extra input data are not required. Only additional computation, time series decomposition, is needed. The proposed technique could be potentially used to minimize the costly operation of sediment measurement in the LMB which is relatively rich in hydrometeorological records.

Artificial neural network (ANN) models combined with time series decomposition are widely employed to calculate the river flows; however, the influence of the application of diverse decomposing approaches on assessing correctness is inadequately compared and examined. This study investigates the certainty of monthly streamflow by applying ANNs including feed forward back propagation neural network and radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) models integrated with discrete wavelet transform (DWT), at Jinsha River basin in the upper reaches of Yangtze River of China. The effect of the noise factor of the decomposed time series on the prediction correctness has also been argued in this paper. Data have been analyzed by comparing the simulation outputs of the models with the correlation coefficient (R) root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency. Results show that time series decomposition technique DWT contributes in improving the accuracy of streamflow prediction, as compared to single ANN’s. The detailed comparative analysis showed that the RBFNN integrated with DWT has better forecasting capabilities as compared to other developed models. Moreover, for high-precision streamflow prediction, the high-frequency section of the original time series is very crucial, which is understandable in flood season.

Surrogate models have been used to replace computationally expensive analysis models in engineering design problems. However, time-dependent variables and historical data are usually ignored in the surrogate modeling process. For instance, in a dam network design, using hydraulic simulations to estimate the water flow is computationally expensive, and the data is in the form of time series. So, we need time-dependent surrogate models to replace these simulations and manage this computational complexity. In this paper, we describe surrogate models to predict the amount of water flow into a reservoir. The challenge is that the flow is a time-dependent variable, and we need to incorporate time series into surrogate models. Thus, there are three contributions: (1) using surrogate modeling to predict flow for dam network design, (2) incorporating time series analysis in surrogate models for water network design, (3) using an ensemble of surrogates to increase the accuracy of prediction. We also demonstrate how to integrate surrogate models and machine learning with time series analysis for more accurate and faster prediction. Due to the availability of data, we use the Buffalo Reservoir in the Red River Basin as an example. Based on the time series data for flow, evaporation, precipitation, and maximum and minimum temperature, three surrogate models are used to examine the impact of integrating time series into surrogate models. These are multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (MARIMA), a classic time series analysis method; artificial neural network (ANN), and random forest (RF) methods, two machine learning surrogate models. We use seven different time lags as features within an RF model, as an ensemble of surrogate models, and predict the flow for seven-time steps ahead. We successfully incorporate the time series data and particularly the concept of the time lag within surrogate models. We show that RF as the ensemble of surrogates provides more accurate predictions than the other two surrogate models. Although this method has been demonstrated for the Red River Basin, it could also be applied to designing anything in which time-dependent flow is an issue, for example, in biomedical applications, the management of manufacturing processes and product sales as well as any products in which fluid flow is an issue.

Purpose – This paper aims to predict the needle penetration force (NPF) in denim fabrics using the artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models based on the effects of various sewing parameters. Design/methodology/approach – In order to design the ANN and MLR models, four parameters including fabric weight, number of fabric layers, weave pattern, and sewing needle size are taken into account as the input parameters and NPF as the output parameter. According to these parameters, 140 samples of data were resulted. Each sample was tested five times. From these 140 data (input-output data pairs), 112 were used for training the ANN and MLR models and 28 samples were used to test the performance of ANN and MLR. Also, the NPF was measured on the Instron tensile tester to simulate sewing process. Findings – The results indicated that the NPF in denim fabrics can be well predicted in terms of sewing parameters by using ANN and MLR models, in which the ANN model exhibits greater performance than MLR (RANN=0.989&gt; RMLR=0.901). Research limitations/implications – The NPF measurement method is limited at low speed. Originality/value – Using the ANN model for forecasting NPF in denim fabrics can help the garment manufactures to produce high-quality denim products and improve the sewing process through reducing seam damage. The NPF could be also measured in the cycle loading conditions similar to sewing machine process by using a special designed tools mounted on the Instron tensile tester.

Nowadays , nonlinear time series and artificial neural networks (ANN) models are used for forecasting in the field of business, agriculture and soon. Recent studies have shown, ANN have been successfully used for forecasting of financial and agriculture data series The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. ANN have more advantages that can approximate to model both linear and nonlinear structures in time series, they are not able to handling both structures equally well. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and two ANN models namely, Radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) methods were applied to Hyderabad airport traffic data. The data obtained for 15 years from 2002–2003 to 2016–2017 about domestic and international passenger of International Airport of Hyderabad, India. In this research paper, we compared the performances of ARIMA, RBFNN and ERNN were based on three measures: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and RMSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the three models ranked in ascending order were: ARIMA, ERNN and the RBFNN model. Keywords: T ime series, forecasting, artificial neural networks, ARIMA models, radial basis function neural networks, and Elman recurrent neural networks Cite this Article R. Ramakrishna, Berhe Aregay, Tewodros Gebregergs. The Comparison in Time Series Forecasting of Air Traffic Data by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, Radial Basis Function and Elman Recurrent Neural Networks. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics . 2018; 7(3): 75–90p.

This study aims to compare linear and nonlinear prediction methods in predicting the Kovats retention index of 126 compounds extracted from the Lippia origanoides plant. The retention index of each compound has been predicted based on its molecular descriptors. There have been 189 molecular descriptors for each compound in this study, and the best descriptors have been selected using the Genetic Algorithm (GA). It has succeeded in selecting the best five descriptors used to build the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. MLR has obtained R2 of 0.959, 0.946, 0.955, and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 48.00, 50.84, 47.19 on training, validation, and testing, respectively. Meanwhile, ANN has obtained R2 of 0.963, 0.947, 0.962, and an RMSE of 45.45, 50.59, 43.20, respectively. Compared to MLR, there has been an increase in the ANN model's performance, with an increase in R2 of 0.004, 0.001, and 0.007 and a decrease in RMSE of 2.55, 0.25, and 3.99. Based on the prediction results obtained, it is known that in this case, the ANN method can provide better predictive results than MLR.

Different chemical attributes, measured via total soluble solids (TSS), acidity, vitamin C (VitC), total sugars (Tsugar), and reducing sugars (Rsugar), were determined for three groups of citrus fruits (i.e., orange, mandarin, and acid); each group contains two cultivars. Artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models were developed for TSS, acidity, VitC, Tsugar, and Rsugar from fresh citrus fruits by applying different independent variables, namely the dimensions of the fruits (length (FL) and diameter (FD)), fruit weight (FW), yield/tree, and soil electrical conductivity (EC). The results of ANN application showed that a feed-forward back-propagation network type with four input neurons (Yield/tree, FW, FL, and FD) and eight neurons in one hidden layer provided successful modeling efficiencies for TSS, acidity, VitC, Tsugar, and Rsugar. The effect of the EC variable was not significant. The hyperbolic tangent of both the hidden layer and the output layer of the developed ANN model was chosen as the activation function. Based on statistical criteria, the ANN developed in this study performed better than the MLR model in predicting the chemical attributes of fresh citrus fruits. The root mean square error of TSS, acidity, VitC, Tsugar, and Rsugar ranged from 0.064 to 0.453 and 0.068 to 0.634, respectively, for the ANN model, and 0.568 to 4.768 and 0.550 to 4.830, respectively, for the MLR model using training and testing datasets. In addition, the relative errors obtained through the ANN approach provided high model predictability and feasibility. In chemical attribute modeling, the FD and FL variables exhibited high contribution ratios, resulting in a reliable predictive model. The developed ANN model generally showed a good level of accuracy when estimating the chemical attributes of fresh citrus fruit.

Neftci (1984) proposed a nonparametric test procedure for determining whether business cycles are asymmetric in the sense that contractions are steeper than expansions. He found evidence of this type of asymmetry in postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment variables.' This comment identifies a probable error in Neftci's empirical work that reverses the significance of his results for the unemployment rate, and it suggests that this test may have low power and be sensitive to measurement error.

The development of retention prediction models for the seven ginsenosides Rf, Rg1, Rd, Re, Rc, Rb2, and Rb1 on a polyamine-bonded stationary phase in hydrophilic interaction chromatography (HILIC) is presented. The models were derived using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) using the logarithm of the retention factor (log k) as the dependent variable for four temperature conditions (0, 10, 25, and 40 degrees C). Using stepwise MLR, the retention of the analytes in all the temperature conditions was satisfactorily described by a two-predictor model wherein the predictors were the percentage of ACN (%ACN) in the mobile phase and local dipole index (LDI) of the compounds. These predictors account for the contribution of the solute-related variable (LDI) and the influence of the mobile phase composition (%ACN) on the retention behavior of the ginsenosides. A comparison of the models derived from both MLR and ANN revealed that the trained ANNs showed better predictive abilities than the MLR models in all temperature conditions as demonstrated by their higher R(2) values for both training and test sets and lower average percentage deviation of the predicted log k from the observed log k of the test compounds. The ANN models also showed excellent performance when applied to the prediction of the seven ginsenosides in different sample matrices.