Assessing treatment switch among patients with multiple sclerosis: A machine learning approach

Clinical prediction rules could help identify children at risk of slowed growth after an episode of diarrheal illness, and these rules may be generalizable to all children, regardless of diarrhea status.

Comparative study of different machine learning models in landslide susceptibility assessment: A case study of Conghua District, Guangzhou, China

Background/Objective: Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates, necessitating prognostic algorithms to guide decisions. Our study evaluates the use of machine learning (ML) models for predicting 1-month and 1-year mortality among SAH patients using national electronic health records (EHR) system. Methods: Retrospective cohort of 29,274 SAH patients, identified through national EHR system from January 2017 to December 2022, was analyzed, with mortality data obtained from central civil registration system in Türkiye. Variables included (n = 102) pre- (n = 65) and post-admission (n = 37) data, such as patient demographics, clinical presentation, comorbidities, laboratory results, and complications. We employed logistic regression (LR), decision trees (DTs), random forests (RFs), and artificial neural networks (ANN). Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), average precision, and accuracy. Feature significance analysis was conducted using LR. Results: The average age was 56.23 ± 16.45 years (47.8% female). The overall mortality rate was 22.8% at 1 month and 33.3% at 1 year. One-month mortality increased from 20.9% to 24.57% (p < 0.001), and 1-year mortality rose from 30.85% to 35.55% (p < 0.001) in the post-COVID period compared to the pre-COVID period. For 1-month mortality prediction, the ANN, LR, RF, and DT models achieved AUCs of 0.946, 0.942, 0.931, and 0.916, with accuracies of 0.905, 0.901, 0.893, and 0.885, respectively. For 1-year mortality, the AUCs were 0.941, 0.927, 0.926, and 0.907, with accuracies of 0.884, 0.875, 0.861, and 0.851, respectively. Key predictors of mortality included age, cardiopulmonary arrest, abnormal laboratory results (such as abnormal glucose and lactate levels) at presentation, and pre-existing comorbidities. Incorporating post-admission features (n = 37) alongside pre-admission features (n = 65) improved model performance for both 1-month and 1-year mortality predictions, with average AUC improvements of 0.093 ± 0.011 and 0.089 ± 0.012, respectively. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of ML models in predicting mortality in SAH patients using big data. LR models’ robustness, interpretability, and feature significance analysis validate its importance. Including post-admission data significantly improved all models’ performances. Our results demonstrate the utility of big data analytics in population-level health outcomes studies.

BackgroundA considerable portion of patients with fever of unknown origin (FUO) present concomitant lymphadenopathy. Diseases within the spectrum of FUO accompanied by lymphadenopathy include lymphoma, infections, and rheumatic diseases. Particularly, lymphoma has emerged as the most prevalent etiology of FUO with associated lymphadenopathy. Distinguishing between benign and malignant lymph node lesions is a major challenge for physicians and an urgent clinical concern for patients. However, conventional imaging techniques, including PET/CT, often have difficulty accurately distinguishing between malignant and benign lymph node lesions. This study utilizes PET/CT radiomics to differentiate between lymphoma and benign lymph node lesions in patients with FUO, aiming to improve diagnostic accuracy.ResultsData were collected from 204 patients who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT examinations for FUO, including 114 lymphoma patients and 90 patients with benign lymph node lesions. Patients were randomly divided into training and testing groups at a ratio of 7:3. A total of 15 effective features were obtained by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm. Machine learning models were constructed using logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and k-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithms. In the training group, the area under the curve (AUC) values for predicting lymphoma and benign cases by LR, SVM, RF, and KNN models were 0.936, 0.930, 0.998, and 0.938, respectively. There were statistically significant differences in AUC between the RF and other models (all P < 0.001). In the testing group, the AUC values for the four models were 0.860, 0.866, 0.915, and 0.891, respectively, with no statistically significant differences observed among them (all P > 0.05). The decision curve analysis (DCA) curves of the RF model outperformed those of the other three models in both the training and testing groups.ConclusionsPET/CT radiomics demonstrated promising performance in discriminating lymphoma from benign lymph node lesions in patients with FUO, with the RF model showing the best performance.

Immune checkpoint inhibitor-induced inflammatory arthritis (ICI-IA) poses a major clinical challenge to ICI therapy for cancer, with 13% of cases halting ICI therapy and ICI-IA being difficult to identify for timely referral to a rheumatologist. The objective of this study was to rapidly identify ICI-IA patients in clinical data and assess associated immune-related adverse events (irAEs) and risk factors. We conducted a retrospective study of the electronic health records (EHRs) of 89 patients who developed ICI-IA out of 2451 cancer patients who received ICI therapy at Northwestern University between March 2011 to January 2021. Logistic regression and random forest machine learning models were trained on all EHR diagnoses, labs, medications, and procedures to identify ICI-IA patients and EHR codes indicating ICI-IA. Multivariate logistic regression was then used to test associations between ICI-IA and cancer type, ICI regimen, and comorbid irAEs. Logistic regression and random forest models identified ICI-IA patients with accuracies of 0.79 and 0.80, respectively. Key EHR features from the random forest model included ICI-IA relevant features (joint pain, steroid prescription, rheumatoid factor tests) and features suggesting comorbid irAEs (thyroid function tests, pruritus, triamcinolone prescription). Compared to 871 adjudicated ICI patients who did not develop arthritis, ICI-IA patients had higher odds of developing cutaneous (odds ratio [OR]=2.66; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.63-4.35), endocrine (OR=2.09; 95% CI 1.15-3.80), or gastrointestinal (OR=2.88; 95% CI 1.76-4.72) irAEs adjusting for demographics, cancer type, and ICI regimen. Melanoma (OR=1.99; 95% CI 1.08-3.65) and renal cell carcinoma (OR=2.03; 95% CI 1.06-3.84) patients were more likely to develop ICI-IA compared to lung cancer patients. Patients on nivolumab+ipilimumab were more likely to develop ICI-IA compared to patients on pembrolizumab (OR=1.86; 95% CI 1.01-3.43). Our machine learning models rapidly identified patients with ICI-IA in EHR data and elucidated clinical features indicative of comorbid irAEs. Patients with ICI-IA were significantly more likely to also develop cutaneous, endocrine, and gastrointestinal irAEs during their clinical course compared to ICI therapy patients without ICI-IA.

Chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) is a leading cause of liver fibrosis. Accurate and non-invasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis in CHB patients is of critical clinical importance. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML)-based models for predicting significant liver fibrosis in CHB patients. This retrospective cohort study included 328 CHB patients (225 with non-significant liver fibrosis and 103 with significant liver fibrosis) from 2017 to 2022. Four ML models were constructed based on four selected features identified through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Model performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. The random forest (RF) model demonstrated the highest predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.874 (95% CI: 0.813-0.934) in the training set and 0.863 (95% CI: 0.772-0.955) in the test set, outperforming extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machine (SVM). Compared with the traditional fibrosis indices such as aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) (AUC = 0.585) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) (AUC = 0.633), the RF model (AUC = 0.863) demonstrated significantly higher predictive accuracy. SHAP analysis identified platelet count (PLT) as the most influential predictor in the RF model. The ML-based RF model offers a highly accurate, non-invasive interpretable tool for predicting significant liver fibrosis in patients with CHB, offering potential for clinical application in routine fibrosis risk assessment.

This study examined records of 2566 consecutive COVID-19 patients at five Massachusetts hospitals and sought to predict level-of-care requirements based on clinical and laboratory data. Several classification methods were applied and compared against standard pneumonia severity scores. The need for hospitalization, ICU care, and mechanical ventilation were predicted with a validation accuracy of 88%, 87%, and 86%, respectively. Pneumonia severity scores achieve respective accuracies of 73% and 74% for ICU care and ventilation. When predictions are limited to patients with more complex disease, the accuracy of the ICU and ventilation prediction models achieved accuracy of 83% and 82%, respectively. Vital signs, age, BMI, dyspnea, and comorbidities were the most important predictors of hospitalization. Opacities on chest imaging, age, admission vital signs and symptoms, male gender, admission laboratory results, and diabetes were the most important risk factors for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation. The factors identified collectively form a signature of the novel COVID-19 disease.

Background Predicting the prognosis of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) combined with diabetes mellitus (DM) is crucial due to high in-hospital mortality rates. This study aims to develop and validate a mortality risk prediction model for these patients by interpretable machine learning (ML) methods. Methods Data were sourced from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV, version 2.2). Predictors were selected by Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and checked for multicollinearity with Spearman’s correlation. Patients were randomly assigned to training and validation sets in an 8:2 ratio. Seven ML algorithms were used to construct models in the training set. Model performance was evaluated in the validation set using metrics such as area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval (CI), calibration curves, precision, recall, F1 score, accuracy, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV). The significance of differences in predictive performance among models was assessed utilising the permutation test, and 10-fold cross-validation further validated the model’s performance. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) were applied to interpret the models. Results The study included 2,828 patients with AMI combined with DM. Nineteen predictors were identified through LASSO regression and Spearman’s correlation. The Random Forest (RF) model was demonstrated the best performance, with an AUC of 0.823 (95% CI: 0.774–0.872), high precision (0.867), accuracy (0.873), and PPV (0.867). The RF model showed significant differences (p < 0.05) compared to the K-Nearest Neighbours and Decision Tree models. Calibration curves indicated that the RF model’s predicted risk aligned well with actual outcomes. 10-fold cross-validation confirmed the superior performance of RF model, with an average AUC of 0.828 (95% CI: 0.800–0.842). Significant Variables in RF model indicated that the top eight significant predictors were urine output, maximum anion gap, maximum urea nitrogen, age, minimum pH, maximum international normalised ratio (INR), mean respiratory rate, and mean systolic blood pressure. Conclusion This study demonstrates the potential of ML methods, particularly the RF model, in predicting in-hospital mortality risk for AMI patients with DM. The SHAP and LIME methods enhance the interpretability of ML models.

Factors Associated with Prescribing Oral Disease Modifying Agents in Multiple Sclerosis: a Real-world Analysis of Electronic Medical Records

To predict the potential geographic distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in Yunnan Province using random forest (RF) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models, so as to provide insights into O. hupensis surveillance and control in Yunnan Province. The O. hupensis snail survey data in Yunnan Province from 2015 to 2016 were collected and converted into O. hupensis snail distribution site data. Data of 22 environmental variables in Yunnan Province were collected, including twelve climate variables (annual potential evapotranspiration, annual mean ground surface temperature, annual precipitation, annual mean air pressure, annual mean relative humidity, annual sunshine duration, annual mean air temperature, annual mean wind speed, ≥ 0 ℃ annual accumulated temperature, ≥ 10 ℃ annual accumulated temperature, aridity and index of moisture), eight geographical variables (normalized difference vegetation index, landform type, land use type, altitude, soil type, soil textureclay content, soil texture-sand content and soil texture-silt content) and two population and economic variables (gross domestic product and population). Variables were screened with Pearson correlation test and variance inflation factor (VIF) test. The RF and MaxEnt models and the ensemble model were created using the biomod2 package of the software R 4.2.1, and the potential distribution of O. hupensis snails after 2016 was predicted in Yunnan Province. The predictive effects of models were evaluated through cross-validation and independent tests, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa statistics were used for model evaluation. In addition, the importance of environmental variables was analyzed, the contribution of environmental variables output by the models with AUC values of > 0.950 and TSS values of > 0.850 were selected for normalization processing, and the importance percentage of environmental variables was obtained to analyze the importance of environmental variables. Data of 148 O. hupensis snail distribution sites and 15 environmental variables were included in training sets of RF and MaxEnt models, and both RF and MaxEnt models had high predictive performance, with both mean AUC values of > 0.900 and all mean TSS values and Kappa values of > 0.800, and significant differences in the AUC (t = 19.862, P < 0.05), TSS (t = 10.140, P < 0.05) and Kappa values (t = 10.237, P < 0.05) between two models. The AUC, TSS and Kappa values of the ensemble model were 0.996, 0.954 and 0.920, respectively. Independent data verification showed that the AUC, TSS and Kappa values of the RF model and the ensemble model were all 1, which still showed high performance in unknown data modeling, and the MaxEnt model showed poor performance, with TSS and Kappa values of 0 for 24%(24/100) of the modeling results. The modeling results of 79 RF models, 38 MaxEnt models and their ensemble models with AUC values of > 0.950 and TSS values of > 0.850 were included in the evaluation of importance of environmental variables. The importance of annual sunshine duration (SSD) was 32.989%, 37.847% and 46.315% in the RF model, the MaxEnt model and their ensemble model, while the importance of annual mean relative humidity (RHU) was 30.947%, 15.921% and 28.121%, respectively. Important environment variables were concentrated in modeling results of the RF model, dispersed in modeling results of the MaxEnt model, and most concentrated in modeling results of the ensemble model. The potential distribution of O. hupensis snails after 2016 was predicted to be relatively concentrated in Yunnan Province by the RF model and relatively large by the MaxEnt model, and the distribution of O. hupensis snails predicted by the ensemble model was mostly the joint distribution of O. hupensis snails predicted by RF and MaxEnt models. Both RF and MaxEnt models are effective to predict the potential distribution of O. hupensis snails in Yunnan Province, which facilitates targeted O. hupensis snail control.

Background and aimsThe birth weight of a newborn is a crucial factor that affects their overall health and future well-being. Low birth weight (LBW) is a widespread global issue, which the World Health Organization defines as weighing less than 2,500 g. LBW can have severe negative consequences on an individual’s health, including neonatal mortality and various health concerns throughout their life. To address this problem, this study has been conducted using BDHS 2017–2018 data to uncover important aspects of LBW using a variety of machine learning (ML) approaches and to determine the best feature selection technique and best predictive ML model.MethodsTo pick out the key features, the Boruta algorithm and wrapper method were used. Logistic Regression (LR) used as traditional method and several machine learning classifiers were then used, including, DT (Decision Tree), SVM (Support Vector Machine), NB (Naïve Bayes), RF (Random Forest), XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), and AdaBoost (Adaptive Boosting), to determine the best model for predicting LBW. The model’s performance was evaluated based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC value.ResultsResult shows, Boruta algorithm identifies eleven significant features including respondent’s age, highest education level, educational attainment, wealth index, age at first birth, weight, height, BMI, age at first sexual intercourse, birth order number, and whether the child is a twin. Incorporating Boruta algorithm’s significant features, the performance of traditional LR and ML methods including DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB were evaluated where LR, had a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.85, 0.5, 85.15% and 0.915. While the ML methods DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB model’s respective accuracy values were 85.35%, 85.15%, 84.54%, 81.18%, and 84.41%. Based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC, RF (specificity = 0.99, sensitivity = 0.58, accuracy = 85.86%, F1 score = 0.9243, AUC = 0.549) outperformed the other methods. Both the classical (LR) and machine learning (ML) models’ performance has improved dramatically when important characteristics are extracted using the wrapper method. The LR method identified five significant features with a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.87, 0.33, 87.12% and 0.9309. The region, whether the infant is a twin, and cesarean delivery were the three key features discovered by the DT and RF models, which were implemented using the wrapper technique. All three models had the identical F1 score of 0.9318. However, “child is twin” was recognized as a significant feature by the SVM, NB, and AB models, with an F1 score of 0.9315. Ultimately, with an F1 score of 0.9315, the XGBoost model recognized “child is twin” and “age at first sex” as relevant features. Random Forest again beat the other approaches in this instance.ConclusionsThe study reveals Wrapper method as the optimal feature selection technique. The ML method outperforms traditional methods, with Random Forest (RF) being the most effective predictive model for Low-Birth-Weight prediction. The study suggests that policymakers in Bangladesh can mitigate low birth weight newborns by considering identified risk factors.

ObjectiveCompare the performance of the Multivariable logistic regression (LR) model based on traditional statistical methods and the Random Forest (RF) model in machine learning for predicting clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD).BackgroundCR-POPF is a common and severe complication following PD. Traditional statistical models are widely used to predict it, but the rise of machine learning has garnered attention for its potential in predictive medicine. Comparing the performance of traditional statistical methods and machine learning models provides insight into the optimal approach for CR-POPF prediction.MethodsClinical data from patients undergoing PD were collected. CR-POPF prediction models were developed using Multivariable LR and RF, and their predictive performance was compared using Calibration curves, ROC curves and DCA curves.ResultsIn the calibration curve analysis, the Multivariable LR model shows better calibration than the RF. The Multivariable LR model achieved an AUC of 0.96, while the RF model achieved an AUC of 0.90, indicating superior predictive accuracy of the Multivariable LR model. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the Multivariable LR model provided higher net benefit across most threshold ranges than the RF model.ConclusionThe Multivariable LR model outperformed the RF model in predicting CR-POPF after PD and can be considered the preferred method for CR-POPF risk assessment.

Brachytherapy outcome modeling in cervical cancer patients: A predictive machine learning study on patient-specific clinical, physical and dosimetric parameters

In the intensive care unit (ICU), infection-related mortality is high. Although adequate antibiotic treatment is essential in infections, beta-lactam target non-attainment occurs in up to 45% of ICU patients, which is associated with a lower likelihood of clinical success. To optimize antibiotic treatment, we aimed to develop beta-lactam target non-attainment prediction models in ICU patients. Patients from two multicenter studies were included, with intravenous intermittent beta-lactam antibiotics administered and blood samples drawn within 12-36 h after antibiotic initiation. Beta-lactam target non-attainment models were developed and validated using random forest (RF), logistic regression (LR), and naïve Bayes (NB) models from 376 patients. External validation was performed on 150 ICU patients. We assessed performance by measuring discrimination, calibration, and net benefit at the default threshold probability of 0.20. Age, sex, serum creatinine, and type of beta-lactam antibiotic were found to be predictive of beta-lactam target non-attainment. In the external validation, the RF, LR, and NB models confirmed good discrimination with an area under the curve of 0.79 [95% CI 0.72-0.86], 0.80 [95% CI 0.73-0.87], and 0.75 [95% CI 0.67-0.82], respectively, and net benefit in the RF and LR models. We developed prediction models for beta-lactam target non-attainment within 12-36 h after antibiotic initiation in ICU patients. These online-accessible models use readily available patient variables and help optimize antibiotic treatment. The RF and LR models showed the best performance among the three models tested.

Liver cirrhosis is a leading cause of death and effects millions of people in the United States. Early mortality prediction among patients with cirrhosis might give healthcare providers more opportunity to effectively treat the condition. We hypothesized that laboratory test results and other related diagnoses would be associated with mortality in this population. Our another assumption was that a deep learning model could outperform the current Model for End Stage Liver disease (MELD) score in predicting mortality. We utilized electronic health record data from 34,575 patients with a diagnosis of cirrhosis from a large medical center to study associations with mortality. Three time-windows of mortality (365 days, 180 days and 90 days) and two cases with different number of variables (all 41 available variables and 4 variables in MELD-NA) were studied. Missing values were imputed using multiple imputation for continuous variables and mode for categorical variables. Deep learning and machine learning algorithms, i.e., deep neural networks (DNN), random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) were employed to study the associations between baseline features such as laboratory measurements and diagnoses for each time window by 5-fold cross validation method. Metrics such as area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), overall accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate models. Performance of models comprising all variables outperformed those with 4 MELD-NA variables for all prediction cases and the DNN model outperformed the LR and RF models. For example, the DNN model achieved an AUC of 0.88, 0.86, and 0.85 for 90, 180, and 365-day mortality respectively as compared to the MELD score, which resulted in corresponding AUCs of 0.81, 0.79, and 0.76 for the same instances. The DNN and LR models had a significantly better f1 score compared to MELD at all time points examined. Other variables such as alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase, and hemoglobin were also top informative features besides the 4 MELD-Na variables. Machine learning and deep learning models outperformed the current standard of risk prediction among patients with cirrhosis. Advanced informatics techniques showed promise for risk prediction in patients with cirrhosis.