Bunker supply chain analysis for the adoption of ammonia as an alternative bunker fuel
Ammonia is one of the alternative marine fuels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for international shipping. Ammonia bunker supply chain includes ammonia production, storage, transportation, loading and bunkering operations and consumption process. Current research topics include ammonia bunkering supply and demand configurations, ammonia safety study for marine applications, ammonia bunkering port selection, and its bunker supply chain resilience. This study aims to analyse the adoption of ammonia as bunker fuel from the bunker supply chain perspective, comprising five studies: Study 1 conducts a systematic literature review on ship bunkering from perspectives of bunkering management, alternative fuel bunkering and bunkering operational risk. A concept of sustainable, safe and smart (3S) bunkering is proposed for multi-fuel bunkering, digital bunkering, and risk-based approaches for implementing alternative marine fuels. Study 2 describes the development of a discrete event simulation model for bunker supply chain, emphasising how ammonia bunkering affects the operational and economic performance of the system. The results show that the increase in bunkering service time compared with pure MFO bunkering is up to 113.7% for ammonia-MFO dual fuel bunkering, and up to 61.6% for pure ammonia bunkering. Ammonia bunkering flow rate is the most sensitive parameter for bunkering service time, with an effect of up to 51.3% decrease when it is increased by 50%. Moreover, the increase in annual operational cost for a bunker supplier is up to 19.1% under the condition of ammonia-MFO dual fuel bunkering. The number of ammonia bunker supply vessels is the most sensitive parameter for annual operational cost, and if it is increased by 50%, the increased annual operational cost variability is as high as 15.2%. Studies 3 and 4 investigate the operational risk of accidental ammonia release in bunkering ports, considering various bunkering supply scenarios, release events, meteorological conditions, seasons, and geographical locations. Findings indicate that under the risk assessment criteria of 1100 ppm maximum cloud footprint, wind speed emerges as the most influential factor for both small and medium release scales, exhibiting sensitivities of up to -4 and -13.25, respectively. In the case of large release scales, hose diameter emerges as the most important factor, exhibiting a sensitivity of +33.77 to 1100 ppm maximum cloud footprint and a sensitivity of +26.17 to the 3% lethality footprint. Moreover, study 4 shows the data-driven framework, including a user layer, simulation-based knowledge layer and decision layer. An integrated approach incorporating energy balance modelling, Gaussian dispersion modelling and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is developed. The synergy effects of different parameters are also presented. Study 5 investigates the ripple effect of ammonia supply disruptions on an ammonia bunkering port, considering ammonia bunker demand dynamics. Low-frequency and high-impact disruption types are discussed in this study. A Coloured Petri Nets model shows the path of spreading disruptions, their interrelationships and their effects on the system performance. The cost, lead time and GHG emission reduction are selected as indicators to evaluate the system performance. This PhD work contributes to the field of ammonia as a marine fuel, advancing both scientific knowledge and practical applications. It fills critical gaps in the literature on ammonia bunkering in the maritime sector and is the first to examine the combined impact of various factors related to the ammonia bunker supply chain, operational risk, and disruption risk. The proposed models, including a discrete event system simulation model, Gaussian dispersion model, simulation-based ANFIS model, and Petri Nets model, can be applied to analyse other types of fuels. Additionally, the insights and discussions on the risks associated with ammonia bunkering provide valuable references for stakeholders in making decisions about bunkering supply configurations and risk mitigations.
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