Balanced realizations of regime-switching linear systems

In this paper, we present several novel results on controllability and stabilizability properties of the Kolmogorov forward equation of a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) evolving on a finite state space, using the transition rates as the control parameters. First, we characterize all the stationary distributions that are stabilizable using time-independent control parameters. We then present a result on small-time local and global controllability of the system from and to strictly positive equilibrium distributions when the underlying graph is strongly connected. Additionally, we show that any target distribution can be reached asymptotically using time-varying control parameters. For bidirected graphs, we construct rational and polynomial density feedback laws that stabilize strictly positive stationary distributions while satisfying the additional constraint that that the feedback law takes zero value at equilibrium. This last result enables the construction of decentralized density feedback controllers, using tools from linear systems theory and sum-of-squares based polynomial optimization, that stabilize a swarm of agents modeled as a CTMC to a target state distribution with no state-switching at equilibrium. We validate the effectiveness of the constructed feedback laws with stochastic simulations of the CTMC for finite numbers of agents and numerical solutions of the corresponding mean-field models.

This review article is concerned to provide a global context to several works on the fitting of continuous time nonhomogeneous Markov chains with finite state space and also to point out some selected aspects of two techniques previously introduced—estimation and calibration—relevant for applications and used to fit a continuous time Markov chain model to data by the adequate selection of parameters. The denomination estimation suits the procedure better when statistical techniques—e.g., maximum likelihood estimators—are employed, while calibration covers the case where, for instance, some optimisation technique finds a best approximation parameter to ensure good model fitting. For completeness, we provide a short summary of well-known important notions and results formulated for nonhomogeneous Markov chains that, in general, can be transferred to the homogeneous case. Then, as an illustration for the homogeneous case, we present a selected Billingsley’s result on parameter estimation for irreducible chains with finite state space. In the nonhomogeneous case, we quote two recent results, one of the calibration type and the other with more of a statistical flavour. We provide an ample set of bibliographic references so that the reader wanting to pursue her/his studies will be able to do so more easily and productively.

Mathematically, stochastic hybrid systems can be described by Markov processes with discrete and continuous behaviours. This chapter provides in an incremental way the necessary mathematical background for understanding such complex systems. The chapter starts with discrete and continuous-time Markov chains. In this book, a Markov chain is understood as a stochastic process with the Markov property (or memoryless property, i.e. its future evolution depends only on the current state) defined on a discrete (finite or countable) state space. The Markov property is illustrated in the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation satisfied by the transition probabilities. Usually, in the continuous-time Markov case, the evolution of these transition probabilities is described by forward/backward Kolmogorov equations. These equations are expressed in terms of the stochastic matrix (called also infinitesimal generator) associated to the Markov chain. This is the matrix of transition rates and the practical use of Markov chains resides in our ability of handling it.The second part of this chapter is dedicated to Markov processes defined on continuous state spaces that can be equipped with additional structures as sigma-algebras, metrics, topologies, norms or others like specific algebraic structures (lattice, vector space). Characterisations of such processes are usually given using functional analysis operators like: the operator semigroup/resolvent, the infinitesimal generator or other operators that can be associated to a Markov process. At an abstract level, these operators describe the evolution the evolution of transition probabilities for a Markov process. Chapman-Kolmogorov equation, Kolmogorov equations and other properties of these operators (e.g. Dynkin formula, martingale problem) represent the natural tools for studying such Markov processes.KeywordsMarkov ChainTopological SpaceMarkov ProcessMarkov PropertyPolish SpaceThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

We present in this paper a mathematical method based on stochastic comparisons of Markov chains in order to compute in a mobile network performance measures that are important Q parameters for users: the dropping handover of voice and the blocking probability of a new voice call. The key idea of this methodology is that given a complex system represented by a multi-dimensional Markov chain which is too large to be solved, we propose to reduce the state space, and so to define a new Markov chain which is a simplified version of the original one. This reduced Markov chain is defined as an aggregated one, which represents a stochastic bound for performance measures written as increasing reward function on the stationary distribution. The main steps of the construction of the aggregated Markov chain applied into mobile networks are presented in this paper. As the number of mobile users with different kinds of applications increases, the associated model is more complex and it can be represented by multi-dimensional continuous time Markov chain with a very large size. Thus, we define an aggregated Markov chain represented by a multi-dimensional birth and death process which is very easy to solve. We have proved that there is a weak ordering between the original Markov chain and the aggregated one using increasing set formalism. We have computed upper bounds of dropping handover and blocking probability for different values of input parameters. Numerical results prove that upper bounds give good results and so the stochastic methodology is an interesting mathematical tool for the performance evaluation of complex systems. Keywords: Mobile Networks, Quality of Service, Stochastic ordering, stochastic comparisons, Continuous Time Markov Chains.

Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose popularity extends to a variety of disciplines ranging from computational finance to human genetics and genomics. A common theme among these diverse applications is the need to simulate sample paths of a CTMC conditional on realized data that is discretely observed. Here we present a general solution to this sampling problem when the CTMC is defined on a discrete and finite state space. Specifically, we consider the generation of sample paths, including intermediate states and times of transition, from a CTMC whose beginning and ending states are known across a time interval of length T. We first unify the literature through a discussion of the three predominant approaches: (1) modified rejection sampling, (2) direct sampling, and (3) uniformization. We then give analytical results for the complexity and efficiency of each method in terms of the instantaneous transition rate matrix Q of the CTMC, its beginning and ending states, and the length of sampling time T. In doing so, we show that no method dominates the others across all model specifications, and we give explicit proof of which method prevails for any given Q, T, and endpoints. Finally, we introduce and compare three applications of CTMCs to demonstrate the pitfalls of choosing an inefficient sampler.

In the previous chapter, we studied a discrete-time stochastic process {X n, n ≥ 0} on finite state space with Markov property at times n = 0, 1, 2 ···. Now we would like to study a continuous-time stochastic process {X(t), t ≥ 0} on a finite state space with Markov property at each time t ≥ 0. We shall call such a process continuous-time Markov Chain (CTMC). We shall see in the next chapter that a finite-state CTMC spends an exponentially distributed amount of time in a given state before jumping out of it. Thus exponential distributions play an important role in CTMCs. In addition, the Poisson distribution and Poisson processes also form the foundation of many CTMC models. Hence we study these topics in this chapter.KeywordsPoisson ProcessComputational ProblemCompound Poisson ProcessExponential Random VariablePoisson Random VariableThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Tandem queues are good mathematical models for description of information transmission in various communication systems and networks. These queues play also an important role for the validation of different decomposition algorithms designed for investigating more general queueing networks. So, their investigation is interesting for theory and applications. In this paper, we consider tandem queue suitable for modeling the systems and networks where information flows are correlated and bursty what is typical for many modern telecommunication networks. Possible correlation of customers inter-arrival times and batch arrivals are taken into account via of consideration of the Batch Markovian Arrival Process (BMAP) as input stream to the system. The system consists of two stations. The service time at the station 1 is assumed to be generally distributed. There is no buffer at this station, and customers who meet the busy server repeat attempts to enter the system in random time intervals. The service process at the station 2 is assumed to be described by the continuous time Markov chain with a finite state space. This assumption holds good, e.g., if the station 2 has a finite buffer, consists of a finite number of identical or heterogeneous servers where the service time distribution is assumed to be of PH (PHase) type. Markov chain embedded at service completion epochs at the station 1 and the process of system states at arbitrary time are under study. Ergodicity condition and algorithms for computing the steady state probabilities are presented.

This work develops asymptotic expansions for solutions of systems of backward equations of time-inhomogeneous Markov chains in continuous time. Owing to the rapid progress in technology and the increasing complexity in modeling, the underlying Markov chains often have large state spaces, which make the computational tasks infeasible. To reduce the complexity, two-time-scale formulations are used. By introducing a small parameter ɛ > 0 and using suitable decomposition and aggregation procedures, it is formulated as a singular perturbation problem. Both Markov chains having recurrent states only and Markov chains including also transient states are treated. Under certain weak irreducibility and smoothness conditions of the generators, the desired asymptotic expansions are constructed. Then error bounds are obtained.

This paper derives conditions under which co-diagonalization of the controllability and observability Gramians can be performed in a physically consistent manner for the class of linear quantum stochastic systems that are common in the fields of quantum optics and related areas like quantum nano- and optomechanical systems. Such a class is essentially a quantum analogue of classical (non-quantum) linear stochastic systems. However, unlike their classical counterparts, the laws of quantum mechanics impose nonlinear equality constraints on the system matrices of linear quantum stochastic systems, the so-called physical realizability constraints. Therefore, a meaningful model reduction procedure must yield a physically realizable reduced model satisfying these constraints. Previous work has shown that model reduction by subsystem truncation preserves physical realizability, but did not propose a method for truncating a subsystem. One candidate approach for this truncation is a quantum adaptation of the well-known balanced truncation method for classical linear time-invariant systems. It is shown in this paper that balanced realization for linear quantum stochastic systems is only possible under a strongly restrictive necessary and sufficient condition. However, the paper also derives less restrictive necessary and sufficient conditions for other realizations with simultaneously diagonal controllability and observability Gramians, and introduces the notion of a quasi-balanced realization. An example of the application of the results is provided to demonstrate quasi-balanced truncation in the linear quantum stochastic setting.

Continuous Time Markov chains (CTMCs) are widely used to model and analyze networked systems. A common analysis approach is to solve the system of balance equations governing the state transitions of a CTMC to obtain its steadystate probability distribution, and use the state probabilities to derive or compute various performance measures. In many systems, the state space of the underlying CTMC is infinite and multi-dimensional with state-dependent transitions; exact analysis of such models is challenging. For example, the exact probability distribution of the number of jobs in the Discriminatory Processor Sharing (DPS) system, first proposed by Kleinrock in 1967 [4], is still an open challenge. Likewise, obtaining the exact state probabilities of quasi-birth-and-death (QBD) processes with leveldependent transitions is known to be challenging [1]; QBDs are infinite state space multi-dimensional Markov chains in which states are organized into levels and transitions are skip-free between the levels.

This paper is concerned with a class of hybrid stock market models, in which both the return rate and the volatility depend on a hidden, continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space. One of the crucial issues is to estimate the generator of the underlying Markov chain. We develop a stochastic optimization procedure for this task, prove its convergence, and establish the rate of convergence. Numerical tests are carried out via simulation as well as using real market data. In addition, we demonstrate how to use the estimated generator in making stock liquidation decisions.

This study aims at the simultaneous solution of several quaternion linear systems with the same Hermitian and positive definite coefficient matrix by employing the conjugate gradient method. We consider the setting when the quaternion Hermitian positive definite coefficient matrix at hand is very large so that direct methods are not applicable. In the study, we first transform linear quaternion systems into real linear systems. The transformed real linear systems have special structure due to the fact that they are real representations of quaternion systems. Benefitting from the special structure, we further reduce the size of these linear systems. Then a block conjugate gradient method is applied to the resulting reduced real linear systems. The solution obtained after applying the conjugate gradient method is a real representation of the solution of the original quaternion problem. Thus, a conversion of this real solution to the quaternion setting is performed in the end.

Robust μ-stability analysis of Markovian switching uncertain stochastic genetic regulatory networks with unbounded time-varying delays

ABSTRACTIn epidemic modelling, the emergence of a disease is characterized by the low numbers of infectious individuals. Environmental randomness impacts outcomes such as the outbreak or extinction of the disease in this case. This randomness can be accounted for by modelling the system as a continuous time Markov chain, . The probability of extinction given some initial state is the probability of hitting a subset of the state space associated with extinction for the initial state. This hitting probability can be studied by passing to the discrete time Markov chain (DTMC), . An approach is presented to approximate a DTMC on a countably infinite state space by a DTMC on a finite state space for the purpose of solving general hitting problems. This approach is applied to approximate the probability of disease extinction in an epidemic model. It is also applied to evaluate a heterogeneous disease control strategy in a metapopulation.

We investigate the construction of a partial absorbing continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) using a heuristic algorithm aimed at approximate transient analysis. The accuracy of transient state probabilities is indicated by the probability of absorbing state(s) at the specified time moment. A key challenge is the construction of a partial CTMC that minimizes the probability of reaching the absorbing state(s). The generation of all possible partial CTMCs is too computationally demanding, in general. Thus, we turn to investigation of heuristic algorithms that chose to include one state at a time based on limited information (i.e., the partial chain that is already constructed) and without any assumptions about the structure of the underlying CTMC. We consider three groups of such algorithms: naive, based on state characterization by the shortest path (obtained by Dijkstra method) and based on exact/approximate state probabilities. After introducing the algorithms, we discuss the problem of optimal partial CTMC construction and provide several examples. Then we compare the algorithm performance by constructing the partial CTMCs for two models: car sharing system and a randomly generated CTMC. Our obtained numerical results suggest that heuristic algorithms using state characterization via the shortest path offer a balance between accuracy and computational effort.