Bayesian analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using a Poisson process with change-points

Research has shown that partnerships between public health agencies, service providers, and other key stakeholders can expand resources and facilitate focus on community health issues more effectively than can any agency or organization acting alone. There is, however, little empirical evidence drawn from actual public health emergency responses to support this claim. The US response to novel influenza A (H1N1) virus provided the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) the opportunity to explore whether, and the extent to which, state, local and territorial health departments strengthened partnerships with key partner agencies and sectors. Participants included the CDC Public Health Emergency Response (PHER) grantees comprised of 62 state, territorial and local health departments. PHER grantees completed an assessment instrument in May 2011, including questions asking them to rate their partnership strength (on a four-point ordinal scale) with six types of partners before and after the H1N1 response. Grantees additionally reported if and how PHER funding contributed to enhancing the strength of these partnerships. Sixty-one PHER grantees (61/62, 98%) completed the assessment instrument's partnerships section. PHER grantees reported that their partnerships with retail pharmacies were most strengthened (mean increase = 1.11 (on a four-point ordinal scale), SD = .82). This was followed by schools (K-12) (mean increase = .90, SD = .58); private medical providers (mean increase = .81, SD = .68); immunization authorities (mean increase = .80, SD = .61); main education authorities (mean increase = .75, SD = .68); and businesses (mean increase = .74, SD = .61). Mean PHER grantee increases in the strength of each partner type were statistically significant for all partner types (P < .01). Grantees reported that PHER funding contributed to enhancing the strength of their partnerships with schools most frequently (46/46, 100%), and businesses least frequently (31/37, 83.8%). This inquiry provides evidence that state, territorial, and local health department partnerships with key sectors, agencies, and programs were strengthened after the H1N1 response. It further demonstrates that the CDC's PHER funding contributed to the health departments' reports of increased partnership strength.

This paper provides a solution for the multiple changepoint detection problems in financial time series prediction without knowing the number and location of changepoints. The proposed approach is a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for estimating GARCH based volatility models which are subject to an unknown number of changepoints. Recent Auxiliary Particle Filtering (APF) techniques are used to calculate the posterior densities and forecasts in real-time. This approach also automatically deals with the common path dependence problem of these type volatility models. We studied on simulated volatility data using GARCH model and have shown that the proposed approach works well with the generated data. For the non-linearity multiple changepoint detection problem, APF is investigated over the simulated volatility to model the switching regimes. In this study, a full structural changepoint specification is defined in which all parameters of the conditional variance of GARCH are subject to change respectively.

With the progress of globalization and the improvement of transportation, a public health emergency can spread across country's boundary in a short period of time from its original place to other areas or regions, posing public health threatens. Public health emergencies not only affect human-animal/plant-environmental health, but also have long-term implications for social development, so the public health emergency response has gone beyond general public health and requires an integrated and comprehensive One Health approach. This paper analyzes the problems and shortcomings of China's current public health emergency response system in a view of One Health and put forward the recommendations based on One Health concept on integrality, collaboration, development and sustainability of public health emergency response. These recommendations can be used as reference to further optimize the response system of public health emergencies in China.

The problem of detecting multiple undocumented change-points in a historical temperature sequence with simple linear trend is formulated by a linear model. We apply adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to estimate the number and locations of change-points. Model selection criteria are used to choose the Lasso smoothing parameter. As adaptive Lasso may overestimate the number of change-points, we perform post-selection on change-points detected by adaptive Lasso using multivariate t simultaneous confidence intervals. Our method is demonstrated on the annual temperature data (year: 1902–2000) from Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

ABSTRACTIn the multiple changepoint setting, various search methods have been proposed, which involve optimizing either a constrained or penalized cost function over possible numbers and locations of changepoints using dynamic programming. Recent work in the penalized optimization setting has focused on developing an exact pruning-based approach that, under certain conditions, is linear in the number of data points. Such an approach naturally requires the specification of a penalty to avoid under/over-fitting. Work has been undertaken to identify the appropriate penalty choice for data-generating processes with known distributional form, but in many applications the model assumed for the data is not correct and these penalty choices are not always appropriate. To this end, we present a method that enables us to find the solution path for all choices of penalty values across a continuous range. This permits an evaluation of the various segmentations to identify a suitable penalty choice. The computational complexity of this approach can be linear in the number of data points and linear in the difference between the number of changepoints in the optimal segmentations for the smallest and largest penalty values. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

ObjectivesWhen extrapolating time-to-event data the Bagust and Beale (B&B) approach uses the Kaplan-Meier survival function until a manually chosen time point, after which a constant hazard is assumed. This study demonstrates an objective statistical approach to estimate this time point. MethodsWe estimate piecewise exponential models (PEMs), whereby the hazard function is partitioned into segments each with constant hazards. The boundaries of these segments are known as change points. Our approach determines the location and number of change points in PEMs from which the hazard in the final segment is used to model long-term survival. We reviewed previous applications of the B&B approach in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Technology Appraisals (TAs) completed between July 2011 and June 2017. The time points after which constant hazards were assumed were compared between PEMs and the B&B approaches. When further survival data were published following the original TA, we compared these updated estimates to predicted survival from the PEM and other parametric models adjusted for general population mortality. ResultsSix of the 59 TAs in this review considered the B&B approach. There was general agreement between the location of time points identified through the PEM and the B&B approaches. In 2 of the identified TAs the best fitting model to the data was a no-change-point model. Of the 3 TAs for which further survival data became available, PEM provided the closest prediction for survival outcomes in 2 TAs. ConclusionsPEMs are useful for survival extrapolation when a long-term constant hazard trend for the disease is clinically plausible.

This year marks the 15th anniversary of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Canada and the 100th anniversary of the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic. These, and other recent public health events, provide an opportunity for us to review and reflect on the evolution of Canada's public health emergency response over the past 15 years-from SARS, to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza, to Ebola virus and Zika virus disease. Key lessons have been learned and milestones achieved that have shaped and sharpened our response approach and structures. While SARS was a wake-up-call to strengthen infection prevention and control capacity in health care settings and led to the formation of the Public Health Agency of Canada, it also strengthened our Federal/Provincial/Territorial (FPT) senior-level governance and led to agreements for pan-Canadian mutual aid and infectious disease information sharing. As well, our collective public health laboratory capacity has been strengthened through ongoing response and sharing of advanced diagnostics and research. As we move forward, it will be important to explore the design of scalable or modular emergency response strategies and structures that are socio-culturally appropriate and employ evidence-based strategic risk communications that continue to be critical, especially given the volume and spread of misinformation. With the current global reality, we must recognize that public health threats that go unchecked anywhere in the world have the potential to very rapidly become a public health threat in Canada. We need to build, maintain and share our best public health practices globally, for we neglect these at our peril.

Responding to outbreaks is one of the most routine yet most important functions of a public health agency. However, some outbreaks are bigger, more visible, or more complex than others, prompting discussion about when an "outbreak" becomes a "public health emergency." When a public health emergency is identified, resources (eg, funding, staff, space) may need to be redirected from core public health programs to contribute to the public health emergency response. The need to sustain critical public health functions while preparing for public health emergency responses raises a series of operational and resource management questions, including when a public health emergency begins and ends, why additional resources are needed, how long an organization should expect staff to be redirected, and how many staff (or what proportion of the agency's staff ) an organization should anticipate will be needed to conduct a public health emergency response. This article addresses these questions from a national perspective by reviewing events for which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention redirected staff from core public health functions to respond to a series of public health emergencies. We defined "public health emergency" in both operational and public health terms and found that on average each emergency response lasted approximately 4 months and used approximately 9.5% of our workforce. We also provide reasons why public health agencies should consider the impact of redirecting resources when preparing for public health emergencies.

On April 15, 2023, the armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) started in Khartoum state, Sudan. This conflict was complicated by the preexisting complicated epidemiological situation and fragile health system in Sudan. This study endeavors to illuminate the pivotal role essayed by the Sudan FETP (SFETP) in enhancing the nation's public health response, particularly amidst the tumultuous backdrop of armed conflicts that have left their indelible mark on the region. Employing a blend of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, we investigated the SFETP's contributions to the public health response during the initial 4 months of the conflict (April-July 2023). Sixty-four SFETP residents and graduates were invited to participate, and data were gathered through semi-structured questionnaires. A total of 44 (69%) SFETP residents and graduates were included in this study. Out of 38 SFETPs present in the states, 32 have considerably contributed to the crisis response at state and locality levels. Three-quarters of them have played key leadership, planning, and management roles. In essence, 38% (n = 12) of them have contributed to public health surveillance, particularly in data management, reports, Early Warning Alert and Response System (EWAR) establishment, and epidemic investigation. SFETPs have made special contributions to crisis response at the community level. The involved SFETPs supported WASH interventions (n = 4), and almost one-third of them strengthened risk communication and community engagement (n = 9). Despite their physical presence at the subnational level, 27% of graduates were not deployed to the crisis emergency response. Notably, throughout this time, half of the total SFETPs were formally retained during this response. The study highlighted the importance of FETP engagement and support during public health crises. SFETP residents and graduates played diverse roles in the various levels of public health emergency response to the crisis. However. Strategies to improve the deployment and retention of FETP residents are necessary to ensure their availability during crises. Overall, FETP has proven to be an asset in public health crisis management in Sudan.

Data heterogeneity is a challenging issue for modern statistical data analysis. There are different types of data heterogeneity in practice. In this article, we consider potential structural changes and complicated tail distributions. There are various existing methods proposed to handle either structural changes or heteroscedasticity. However, it is difficult to handle them simultaneously. To overcome this limitation, we consider statistically and computationally efficient change point detection and localization in high-dimensional quantile regression models. Our proposed framework is general and flexible since the change points and the underlying regression coefficients are allowed to vary across different quantile levels. The model parameters, including the data dimension, the number of change points, and the signal jump size, can be scaled with the sample size. Under this framework, we construct a novel two-step estimation of the number and locations of the change points as well as the underlying regression coefficients. Without any moment constraints on the error term, we present theoretical results, including consistency of the change point number, oracle estimation of change point locations, and estimation for the underlying regression coefficients with the optimal convergence rate. Finally, we present simulation results and an application to the S&amp;P 100 dataset to demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work

The public health system has a specialized body of knowledge and expertise in bioterrorism and public health emergency management that can assist in the development and delivery of continuing medical education programs to meet the needs of emergency medical service providers. A nationally representative sample of the basic and paramedic emergency medical service providers in the United States was surveyed to assess whether they had received training in weapons of mass destruction, bioterrorism, chemical terrorism, radiological terrorism, and/or public health emergencies, and how the training was provided. Local health departments provided little in the way of training in biologic, chemical, or radiological terrorism to responders (7.4%-14.9%). State health departments provided even less training (6.3%-17.3%) on all topics to emergency medical services providers. Training that was provided by the health department in bioterrorism and public health emergency response was associated with responder comfort in responding to a bioterrorism event (OR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.68, 2.81). Local and state public health agencies should work with the emergency medical services systems to develop and deliver training with an all-hazards approach to disasters and other public health emergencies.

The public health emergency response following the outbreak of COVID-19 necessitated greater internal public health agency teamwork and external collaboration. Building on previous research, this article is the third of 3 research briefs that highlight "bright spots" or valuable experiences and opportunities from the COVID-19 response. Using PH WINS 2021 data, we qualitatively examined responses to a question about pandemic workforce experiences. Teamwork and collaboration were emphasized as a critical component of employees' experiences. Across 260 responses, 7 subthemes emerged, generally commemorating the ways that the response effort and employees were supported by teamwork and collaboration. Findings highlight the value of ongoing cross-division teamwork within agencies, the role of leaders in teamwork, and that lessons from teamwork/collaboration experiences can inform organizational system improvements. Maintaining and expanding on improved external collaboration and partnerships should be prioritized for preparing for future emergency events and serving public health communities on a daily basis.

Parent anxiety and perceptions of their child’s physical activity and sedentary behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada

Modelling of future outcomes to estimate the cost effectiveness of interventions related to child and adolescent overweight and obesity

BackgroundRisk and crisis communication plays an essential role in public health emergency responses. The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered spontaneous and intensive media attention, which has affected people’s adoption of personal preventive measures and their mental health.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to investigate the associations between exposure to COVID-19–specific information and mental health (depression and sleep quality) and self-reported compliance with personal preventive measures (face mask wearing and hand sanitizing). We also tested whether these associations were moderated by thoughtful consideration of the veracity of the information to which people were exposed.MethodsA cross-sectional, closed web-based survey was conducted among a sample of 3035 factory workers at the beginning of work resumption following the COVID-19 outbreak in Shenzhen, China. A stratified two-stage cluster sampling design was used for recruitment. Multivariate linear and logistic regression models were used for the analyses.ResultsThe prevalence of probable moderate-to-severe depression was 170/3035 (5.6%), while that of good or excellent sleep quality was 2110/3035 (69.5%). The prevalence of self-reported consistent face mask wearing in public places was 2903/3035 (95.7%), while that of sanitizing hands every time after returning from public spaces or touching public installations was 2151/3035 (70.9%). Of the 3035 respondents, 1013 to 1638 (33.3% to 54.0%) reported >1 hour of daily exposure to COVID-19–specific information through web-based media and television. After controlling for significant background variables, higher information exposure via television and via newspapers and magazines was associated with better sleep quality and higher compliance with hand sanitizing. Higher exposure via unofficial web-based media was associated with higher compliance with hand sanitizing but was also associated with higher depressive symptoms. In contrast, higher exposure through face-to-face communication was associated with higher depressive symptoms, worse sleep quality, and lower compliance with hand sanitizing. Exposure to information about positive outcomes for patients with COVID-19, development of vaccines and effective treatments, and heroic stories about frontline health care workers were associated with both better mental health and higher compliance with preventive measures. Higher overall information exposure was associated with higher depressive symptoms among participants who were less likely to carefully consider the veracity of the information to which they were exposed; it was also associated with better sleep quality among people who reported more thoughtful consideration of information veracity.ConclusionsThis study provides empirical evidence of how the amount, sources, and contents of information to which people were exposed influenced their mental health and compliance with personal preventive measures at the initial phase of work resumption in China. Thoughtful consideration of information quality was found to play an important moderating role. Our findings may inform strategic risk communication by government and public health authorities during the COVID-19 pandemic.