Bayesian variable selection of spatial panel autoregressive quantile model

In high-throughput genetics studies, an important aim is to identify gene–environment interactions associated with the clinical outcomes. Recently, multiple marginal penalization methods have been developed and shown to be effective in G×E studies. However, within the Bayesian framework, marginal variable selection has not received much attention. In this study, we propose a novel marginal Bayesian variable selection method for G×E studies. In particular, our marginal Bayesian method is robust to data contamination and outliers in the outcome variables. With the incorporation of spike-and-slab priors, we have implemented the Gibbs sampler based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The proposed method outperforms a number of alternatives in extensive simulation studies. The utility of the marginal robust Bayesian variable selection method has been further demonstrated in the case studies using data from the Nurse Health Study (NHS). Some of the identified main and interaction effects from the real data analysis have important biological implications.

Modern regularization and variable selection methods, such as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) and Bayesian variable selection, are important tools for psychological researchers to reduce the risk of overfitting, improve prediction in future samples, and increase model interpretability. Although missing data are common in psychological data, it is not straightforward to combine principled methods for addressing missing data with these modern variable selection methods. This challenge is well illustrated in a recent article by Gunn et al. (2023) with a comparison of three approaches for combining lasso with multiple imputation to address missing data. Each of the surveyed approaches results in markedly different results in terms of predictors selected. Their findings underscore limitations of the lasso for the purpose of variable selection. In this article, we show how to implement a Bayesian variable selection method, stochastic search variable selection (SSVS), with multiply imputed data. SSVS is a principled and consistent method for variable selection, and we demonstrate advantages relative to lasso in an example data set and simulation study. It is straightforward to apply an ITS strategy for SSVS using existing software. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).

In this paper, a Bayesian variable selection method for spatial autoregressive (SAR) quantile models is proposed on the basis of spike and slab prior for regression parameters. The SAR quantile models, which are more generalized than SAR models and quantile regression models, are specified by adopting the asymmetric Laplace distribution for the error term in the classical SAR models. The proposed approach could perform simultaneously robust parametric estimation and variable selection in the context of SAR quantile models. Bayesian statistical inferences are implemented by a detailed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure that combines Gibbs samplers with a probability integral transformation (PIT) algorithm. In the end, empirical numerical examples including several simulation studies and a Boston housing price data analysis are employed to demonstrate the newly developed methodologies.

For many high-dimensional genomic and epigenomic datasets, the outcome of interest is ordinal. While these ordinal outcomes are often thought of as the observed cutpoints of some latent continuous variable, some ordinal outcomes are truly discrete and are comprised of the subjective combination of several factors. The nonlinear stereotype logistic model, which does not assume proportional odds, was developed for these 'assessed' ordinal variables. It has previously been extended to the frequentist high-dimensional feature selection setting, but the Bayesian framework provides some distinct advantages in terms of simultaneous uncertainty quantification and variable selection. Here, we review the stereotype model and Bayesian variable selection methods and demonstrate how to combine them to select genomic features associated with discrete ordinal outcomes. We compared the Bayesian and frequentist methods in terms of variable selection performance. We additionally applied the Bayesian stereotype method to an acute myeloid leukemia RNA-sequencing dataset to further demonstrate its variable selection abilities by identifying features associated with the European LeukemiaNet prognostic risk score.

This paper presents a novel Bayesian variable selection approach that accounts for the sign of the regression coefficients based on multivariate one-sided tests. We propose a truncated g prior to specify a prior distribution of coefficients with anticipated signs in a given model. Informative priors for the direction of the effects can be incorporated into prior model probabilities. The best subset of variables is selected by comparing the posterior probabilities of the possible models. The new Bayesian one-sided variable selection procedure has higher chance to include relevant variables and therefore select the best model, if the anticipated direction is accurate. For a large number of candidate variables, we present an adaptation of a Bayesian model search method for the one-sided variable selection problem to ensure fast computation. In addition, a fully Bayesian approach is used to adjust the prior inclusion probability of each one-sided model to correct for multiplicity. The performance of the proposed method is investigated using several simulation studies and two real data examples.

The goal of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is to identify the best subset of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that strongly influence a certain trait. State of the art GWAS comprise several thousand or even millions of SNPs, scored on a substantially lower number of individuals. Hence, the number of variables greatly exceeds the number of observations, which also is known as the p≫n problem. This problem has been tackled by using Bayesian variable selection methods, for example stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) and Bayesian penalized regression methods (Bayesian lasso; BLA and Bayesian ridge regression; BRR). Even though the above mentioned approaches are capable of dealing with situations where p≫n, it is also known that these methods experience problems when the predictor variables are correlated. The potential problem that linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs can introduce is often ignored. The main contribution of this study is to assess the performance of SSVS, BLA, BRR and a recently introduced method denoted hybrid correlation based search (hCBS) with respect to their ability to identify quantitative trait loci, where SNPs are partially highly correlated. Furthermore, each method’s capability to predict phenotypes based on the selected SNPs and their computational demands are studied. Comparison is based upon three simulated datasets where the simulated phenotypes are assumed to be normally distributed. Results indicate that all methods perform reasonably well with respect to true positive detections but often detect too many false positives on all datasets. As the heritability decreases, the Bayesian penalized regression methods are no longer able to detect any predictors because of shrinkage. Overall, BLA slightly outperformed the other methods and provided superior results in terms of highest true positive/ false positive ratio, but SSVS achieved the best properties on the real LD data.

Bayesian model selection procedures based on nonlocal alternative prior densities are extended to ultrahigh dimensional settings and compared to other variable selection procedures using precision-recall curves. Variable selection procedures included in these comparisons include methods based on g-priors, reciprocal lasso, adaptive lasso, scad, and minimax concave penalty criteria. The use of precision-recall curves eliminates the sensitivity of our conclusions to the choice of tuning parameters. We find that Bayesian variable selection procedures based on nonlocal priors are competitive to all other procedures in a range of simulation scenarios, and we subsequently explain this favorable performance through a theoretical examination of their consistency properties. When certain regularity conditions apply, we demonstrate that the nonlocal procedures are consistent for linear models even when the number of covariates p increases sub-exponentially with the sample size n. A model selection procedure based on Zellner's g-prior is also found to be competitive with penalized likelihood methods in identifying the true model, but the posterior distribution on the model space induced by this method is much more dispersed than the posterior distribution induced on the model space by the nonlocal prior methods. We investigate the asymptotic form of the marginal likelihood based on the nonlocal priors and show that it attains a unique term that cannot be derived from the other Bayesian model selection procedures. We also propose a scalable and efficient algorithm called Simplified Shotgun Stochastic Search with Screening (S5) to explore the enormous model space, and we show that S5 dramatically reduces the computing time without losing the capacity to search the interesting region in the model space, at least in the simulation settings considered. The S5 algorithm is available in an R package BayesS5 on CRAN.

Childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is a condition that arises from complex etiologies. The absence of consistent environmental risk factors and the presence of modest familial associations suggest ALL is a complex trait with an underlying genetic component. The identification of genetic factors associated with disease is complicated by complex genetic covariance structures and multiple testing issues. Both issues can be resolved with appropriate Bayesian variable selection methods. The present study was undertaken to extend our hierarchical Bayesian model for case-parent triads to incorporate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and incorporate the biological grouping of SNPs within genes. Based on previous evidence that genetic variation in the folate metabolic pathway influences ALL risk, we evaluated 128 tagging SNPs in 16 folate metabolic genes among 118 ALL case-parent triads recruited from the Texas Children’s Cancer Center (Houston, TX) between 2003 and 2010. We used stochastic search gene suggestion (SSGS) in hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate the association between folate metabolic SNPs and ALL. Using Bayes factors among these variants in childhood ALL case-parent triads, two SNPs were identified with a Bayes factor greater than 1. There was evidence that the minor alleles of NOS3 rs3918186 (OR = 2.16; 95% CI: 1.51-3.15) and SLC19A1 rs1051266 (OR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.25-3.46) were positively associated with childhood ALL. Our findings are suggestive of the role of inherited genetic variation in the folate metabolic pathway on childhood ALL risk, and they also suggest the utility of Bayesian variable selection methods in the context of case-parent triads for evaluating the role of SNPs on disease risk.

Combining cow and bull reference populations to increase accuracy of genomic prediction and genome-wide association studies

Bayesian variable selection in binary quantile regression

ABSTRACTWe develop a Bayesian variable selection method for logistic regression models that can simultaneously accommodate qualitative covariates and interaction terms under various heredity constraints. We use expectation-maximization variable selection (EMVS) with a deterministic annealing variant as the platform for our method, due to its proven flexibility and efficiency. We propose a variance adjustment of the priors for the coefficients of qualitative covariates, which controls false-positive rates, and a flexible parameterization for interaction terms, which accommodates user-specified heredity constraints. This method can handle all pairwise interaction terms as well as a subset of specific interactions. Using simulation, we show that this method selects associated covariates better than the grouped LASSO and the LASSO with heredity constraints in various exploratory research scenarios encountered in epidemiological studies. We apply our method to identify genetic and non-genetic risk factors associated with smoking experimentation in a cohort of Mexican-heritage adolescents.

ABSTRACTThis article presents a Bayesian variable selection–based diagnosis approach to simultaneously identify both process mean shift faults and sensor mean shift faults in manufacturing processes. The proposed method directly models the probability of fault occurrence and can easily incorporate prior knowledge on the probability of a fault occurrence. Important concepts are introduced to understand the diagnosability of the proposed method. A guideline on how to select the values of hyper-parameters is given. A conditional maximum likelihood method is proposed as an alternative method to provide robustness to the selection of some key model parameters. Systematic simulation studies are used to provide insights on the relationship between the success of the diagnosis method and related system structure characteristics. A real assembly example is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed diagnosis method.

The partially linear varying coefficient spatial autoregressive model is a recently proposed semi-parametric spatial autoregressive model, in which some of the explanatory variables have varying coefficients while the remained explanatory variables possess constant ones. Although some estimation methods have been proposed for the partially linear varying coefficient spatial autoregressive model, the problem of selecting important explanatory variables in the parametric component of such model has not been addressed to date. In this paper, we propose a penalized profile least squares method to address this problem. Different from the existing estimation methods, the proposed method can simultaneously select the significant explanatory variables in the parametric component and estimate the corresponding nonzero regression coefficients. Furthermore, we provide a computationally feasible algorithm to obtain the penalized profile least squares estimator. The finite sample performance of the proposed variable selection method is evaluated through some simulation studies and illustrated by a real data example.

Across multiply imputed data sets, variable selection methods such as stepwise regression and other criterion-based strategies that include or exclude particular variables typically result in models with different selected predictors, thus presenting a problem for combining the results from separate complete-data analyses. Here, drawing on a Bayesian framework, we propose two alternative strategies to address the problem of choosing among linear regression models when there are missing covariates. One approach, which we call "impute, then select" (ITS) involves initially performing multiple imputation and then applying Bayesian variable selection to the multiply imputed data sets. A second strategy is to conduct Bayesian variable selection and missing data imputation simultaneously within one Gibbs sampling process, which we call "simultaneously impute and select" (SIAS). The methods are implemented and evaluated using the Bayesian procedure known as stochastic search variable selection for multivariate normal data sets, but both strategies offer general frameworks within which different Bayesian variable selection algorithms could be used for other types of data sets. A study of mental health services utilization among children in foster care programs is used to illustrate the techniques. Simulation studies show that both ITS and SIAS outperform complete-case analysis with stepwise variable selection and that SIAS slightly outperforms ITS.

A common task in microarray data analysis consists of identifying genes associated with a phenotype. When the outcomes of interest are censored time-to-event data, standard approaches assess the effect of genes by fitting univariate survival models. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian variable selection approach, which allows the identification of relevant markers by jointly assessing sets of genes. We consider accelerated failure time (AFT) models with log-normal and log-t distributional assumptions. A data augmentation approach is used to impute the failure times of censored observations and mixture priors are used for the regression coefficients to identify promising subsets of variables. The proposed method provides a unified procedure for the selection of relevant genes and the prediction of survivor functions. We demonstrate the performance of the method on simulated examples and on several microarray datasets. For the simulation study, we consider scenarios with large number of noisy variables and different degrees of correlation between the relevant and non-relevant (noisy) variables. We are able to identify the correct covariates and obtain good prediction of the survivor functions. For the microarray applications, some of our selected genes are known to be related to the diseases under study and a few are in agreement with findings from other researchers. The Matlab code for implementing the Bayesian variable selection method may be obtained from the corresponding author. mvannucci@stat.tamu.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.