Breast Cancer Detection Analysis Using Different Machine Learning Techniques: South Iraq Case Study

Comparative study of different machine learning models in landslide susceptibility assessment: A case study of Conghua District, Guangzhou, China

Objective: Using methylation characteristics of human genes to construct machine learning predictive models for screening cervical cancer and precancerous lesions. Methods: Human DNA methylation detection was performed on 224 cervical exfoliated cell specimens from the Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Tianjin Central Hospital of Gynecology Obstetrics, Xinmi Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Henan Province, West China Second Affiliated Hospital of Sichuan University, and Heping Hospital Affiliated to Changzhi Medical College collected during April 2014 and March 2015. The hypermethylated gene fragments related to cervical cancer were selected by high-density, high-association, and hypermethylated gene fragment screening and the LASSO regression algorithm. Taking cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) or more severe lesions as the research outcome, machine learning predictive models based on the random forest (RF), naive Bayes (NB), and support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, respectively, were constructed. A total of 144 outpatient specimens were used as the training set and 80 cervical exfoliated cell specimens from women participating in the cervical cancer screening program were used as the test set to verify the predictive models. Using histological diagnosis results as the gold standard, the detection efficacy for CIN2 or more severe lesions of the three machine learning predictive models were compared with that of the human papilloma virus (HPV) detection and cytological diagnosis. Results: In the training set of 144 cases, there were 34 cases of HPV positivity, with a positive rate of 23.61%. Cytologically, there were 37 cases diagnosed as no intraepithelial lesion or malignancy (NILM), and 107 cases diagnosed as atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) or above. Histologically, there were 28 cases without cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or benign cervical lesions, 31 cases of CIN1, 18 cases of CIN2, 31 cases of CIN3, and 36 cases of squamous cell carcinoma. Seven hypermethylated gene fragments were selected from 45 genes, and three machine learning prediction models based on the RF, NB, and SVM algorithm, respectively, were constructed. In the validation set of 80 cases, there were 28 cases of HPV positivity, with a positive rate of 35.00%. Cytologically, there were 65 cases diagnosed as NILM and 15 cases as ASC-US or above. Histologically, there were 39 cases without cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or benign cervical lesions, 10 cases of CIN1, 10 cases of CIN2, 11 cases of CIN3, and 10 cases of squamous cell carcinoma. In the validation set, the area under the curve (AUC) values of the RF model, NB model, SVM model, HPV detection, and cytological diagnosis of CIN2 or above were 0.90, 0.88, 0.82, 0.68, and 0.45, respectively. The DeLong test showed that there was no statistically significant difference in the AUC values between the RF, NB, and SVM models (all P＞0.05), and the AUC values of the RF and NB models were higher than that of HPV detection (both P＜0.01), and the AUC values of the RF, NB, and SVM models were higher than that of cytological diagnosis (all P＜0.01). Compared with the NB model, the sensitivity of the RF model was similar (80.65% vs. 77.42%), but the specificity of the NB model was much higher than that of the RF model (93.88% vs. 73.47%). Conclusion: Among the machine learning prediction models for cervical cancer and precancerous lesions constructed based on human DNA methylation, the NB model has good predictive performance for CIN2 and above lesions, and may be used for screening of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions.

Background and aimsThe birth weight of a newborn is a crucial factor that affects their overall health and future well-being. Low birth weight (LBW) is a widespread global issue, which the World Health Organization defines as weighing less than 2,500 g. LBW can have severe negative consequences on an individual’s health, including neonatal mortality and various health concerns throughout their life. To address this problem, this study has been conducted using BDHS 2017–2018 data to uncover important aspects of LBW using a variety of machine learning (ML) approaches and to determine the best feature selection technique and best predictive ML model.MethodsTo pick out the key features, the Boruta algorithm and wrapper method were used. Logistic Regression (LR) used as traditional method and several machine learning classifiers were then used, including, DT (Decision Tree), SVM (Support Vector Machine), NB (Naïve Bayes), RF (Random Forest), XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), and AdaBoost (Adaptive Boosting), to determine the best model for predicting LBW. The model’s performance was evaluated based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC value.ResultsResult shows, Boruta algorithm identifies eleven significant features including respondent’s age, highest education level, educational attainment, wealth index, age at first birth, weight, height, BMI, age at first sexual intercourse, birth order number, and whether the child is a twin. Incorporating Boruta algorithm’s significant features, the performance of traditional LR and ML methods including DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB were evaluated where LR, had a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.85, 0.5, 85.15% and 0.915. While the ML methods DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB model’s respective accuracy values were 85.35%, 85.15%, 84.54%, 81.18%, and 84.41%. Based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC, RF (specificity = 0.99, sensitivity = 0.58, accuracy = 85.86%, F1 score = 0.9243, AUC = 0.549) outperformed the other methods. Both the classical (LR) and machine learning (ML) models’ performance has improved dramatically when important characteristics are extracted using the wrapper method. The LR method identified five significant features with a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.87, 0.33, 87.12% and 0.9309. The region, whether the infant is a twin, and cesarean delivery were the three key features discovered by the DT and RF models, which were implemented using the wrapper technique. All three models had the identical F1 score of 0.9318. However, “child is twin” was recognized as a significant feature by the SVM, NB, and AB models, with an F1 score of 0.9315. Ultimately, with an F1 score of 0.9315, the XGBoost model recognized “child is twin” and “age at first sex” as relevant features. Random Forest again beat the other approaches in this instance.ConclusionsThe study reveals Wrapper method as the optimal feature selection technique. The ML method outperforms traditional methods, with Random Forest (RF) being the most effective predictive model for Low-Birth-Weight prediction. The study suggests that policymakers in Bangladesh can mitigate low birth weight newborns by considering identified risk factors.

Prediction of chronic kidney disease (CKD) has emerged as a useful technique for early detection of at-risk persons and the introduction of appropriate management strategies. Machine learning and data-driven methods have been used in predictive modeling to examine massive databases of patient demographics, medical histories, test findings, and genetic information. These cutting-edge methods allow for the profiling of high-risk patients and the tailoring of healthcare administration approaches. Patient outcomes, complication rates, and healthcare system efficiency may all benefit greatly from CKD screening and prediction. Responsible use of CKD prediction algorithms, however, requires resolving issues with data availability, integration, and ethics. The area of medicine has benefited greatly from the use of Machine Learning (ML) methods, which have played an increasingly central role in illness prediction. In this study, we use a strategy that makes use of ML methods to construct effective tools for predicting the development of CKD. Multiple ML models are trained, and their results are compared using a variety of criteria. We applied five ML methods such as logistic regression (LR), Decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN). The LR and KNN have the highest accuracy with 99%.

Background Predicting the prognosis of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) combined with diabetes mellitus (DM) is crucial due to high in-hospital mortality rates. This study aims to develop and validate a mortality risk prediction model for these patients by interpretable machine learning (ML) methods. Methods Data were sourced from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV, version 2.2). Predictors were selected by Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and checked for multicollinearity with Spearman’s correlation. Patients were randomly assigned to training and validation sets in an 8:2 ratio. Seven ML algorithms were used to construct models in the training set. Model performance was evaluated in the validation set using metrics such as area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval (CI), calibration curves, precision, recall, F1 score, accuracy, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV). The significance of differences in predictive performance among models was assessed utilising the permutation test, and 10-fold cross-validation further validated the model’s performance. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) were applied to interpret the models. Results The study included 2,828 patients with AMI combined with DM. Nineteen predictors were identified through LASSO regression and Spearman’s correlation. The Random Forest (RF) model was demonstrated the best performance, with an AUC of 0.823 (95% CI: 0.774–0.872), high precision (0.867), accuracy (0.873), and PPV (0.867). The RF model showed significant differences (p < 0.05) compared to the K-Nearest Neighbours and Decision Tree models. Calibration curves indicated that the RF model’s predicted risk aligned well with actual outcomes. 10-fold cross-validation confirmed the superior performance of RF model, with an average AUC of 0.828 (95% CI: 0.800–0.842). Significant Variables in RF model indicated that the top eight significant predictors were urine output, maximum anion gap, maximum urea nitrogen, age, minimum pH, maximum international normalised ratio (INR), mean respiratory rate, and mean systolic blood pressure. Conclusion This study demonstrates the potential of ML methods, particularly the RF model, in predicting in-hospital mortality risk for AMI patients with DM. The SHAP and LIME methods enhance the interpretability of ML models.

PD27-01 DEVELOPMENT OF A MACHINE LEARNING (ML) MODEL TO AUTOMATICALLY AND PRECISELY IDENTIFY KIDNEY STONES FROM URETEROSCOPY VIDEO RECORDINGS

Background and purpose — External validation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is an essential step before clinical application. We assessed the proportion, performance, and transparent reporting of externally validated ML prediction models in orthopedic surgery, using the Transparent Reporting for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines. Material and methods — We performed a systematic search using synonyms for every orthopedic specialty, ML, and external validation. The proportion was determined by using 59 ML prediction models with only internal validation in orthopedic surgical outcome published up until June 18, 2020, previously identified by our group. Model performance was evaluated using discrimination, calibration, and decision-curve analysis. The TRIPOD guidelines assessed transparent reporting. Results — We included 18 studies externally validating 10 different ML prediction models of the 59 available ML models after screening 4,682 studies. All external validations identified in this review retained good discrimination. Other key performance measures were provided in only 3 studies, rendering overall performance evaluation difficult. The overall median TRIPOD completeness was 61% (IQR 43–89), with 6 items being reported in less than 4/18 of the studies. Interpretation — Most current predictive ML models are not externally validated. The 18 available external validation studies were characterized by incomplete reporting of performance measures, limiting a transparent examination of model performance. Further prospective studies are needed to validate or refute the myriad of predictive ML models in orthopedics while adhering to existing guidelines. This ensures clinicians can take full advantage of validated and clinically implementable ML decision tools.

BackgroundGestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common endocrine metabolic disease, involving a carbohydrate intolerance of variable severity during pregnancy. The incidence of GDM-related complications and adverse pregnancy outcomes has declined, in part, due to early screening. Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used to identify risk factors and enable the early prediction of GDM.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis and comparison of published prognostic models for predicting the risk of GDM and identify predictors applicable to the models.MethodsFour reliable electronic databases were searched for studies that developed ML prediction models for GDM in the general population instead of among high-risk groups only. The novel Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess the risk of bias of the ML models. The Meta-DiSc software program (version 1.4) was used to perform the meta-analysis and determination of heterogeneity. To limit the influence of heterogeneity, we also performed sensitivity analyses, a meta-regression, and subgroup analysis.ResultsA total of 25 studies that included women older than 18 years without a history of vital disease were analyzed. The pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for ML models predicting GDM was 0.8492; the pooled sensitivity was 0.69 (95% CI 0.68-0.69; P<.001; I2=99.6%) and the pooled specificity was 0.75 (95% CI 0.75-0.75; P<.001; I2=100%). As one of the most commonly employed ML methods, logistic regression achieved an overall pooled AUROC of 0.8151, while non–logistic regression models performed better, with an overall pooled AUROC of 0.8891. Additionally, maternal age, family history of diabetes, BMI, and fasting blood glucose were the four most commonly used features of models established by the various feature selection methods.ConclusionsCompared to current screening strategies, ML methods are attractive for predicting GDM. To expand their use, the importance of quality assessments and unified diagnostic criteria should be further emphasized.

To develop a machine-learning (ML) model for prediction of shoulder dystocia (ShD) and to externally validate the model's predictive accuracy and potential clinical efficacy in optimizing the use of Cesarean delivery in the context of suspected macrosomia. We used electronic health records (EHR) from the Sheba Medical Center in Israel to develop the model (derivation cohort) and EHR from the University of California San Francisco Medical Center to validate the model's accuracy and clinical efficacy (validation cohort). Subsequent to application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, the derivation cohort included 686 singleton vaginal deliveries, of which 131 were complicated by ShD, and the validation cohort included 2584 deliveries, of which 31 were complicated by ShD. For each of these deliveries, we collected maternal and neonatal delivery outcomes coupled with maternal demographics, obstetric clinical data and sonographic fetal biometry. Biometric measurements and their derived estimated fetal weight were adjusted (aEFW) according to gestational age at delivery. A ML pipeline was utilized to develop the model. In the derivation cohort, the ML model provided significantly better prediction than did the current clinical paradigm based on fetal weight and maternal diabetes: using nested cross-validation, the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) of the model was 0.793 ± 0.041, outperforming aEFW combined with diabetes (AUC = 0.745 ± 0.044, P = 1e-16 ). The following risk modifiers had a positive beta that was > 0.02, i.e. they increased the risk of ShD: aEFW (beta = 0.164), pregestational diabetes (beta = 0.047), prior ShD (beta = 0.04), female fetal sex (beta = 0.04) and adjusted abdominal circumference (beta = 0.03). The following risk modifiers had a negative beta that was < -0.02, i.e. they were protective of ShD: adjusted biparietal diameter (beta = -0.08) and maternal height (beta = -0.03). In the validation cohort, the model outperformed aEFW combined with diabetes (AUC = 0.866 vs 0.784, P = 0.00007). Additionally, in the validation cohort, among the subgroup of 273 women carrying a fetus with aEFW ≥ 4000 g, the aEFW had no predictive power (AUC = 0.548), and the model performed significantly better (0.775, P = 0.0002). A risk-score threshold of 0.5 stratified 42.9% of deliveries to the high-risk group, which included 90.9% of ShD cases and all cases accompanied by maternal or newborn complications. A more specific threshold of 0.7 stratified only 27.5% of the deliveries to the high-risk group, which included 63.6% of ShD cases and all those accompanied by newborn complications. We developed a ML model for prediction of ShD and, in a different cohort, externally validated its performance. The model predicted ShD better than did estimated fetal weight either alone or combined with maternal diabetes, and was able to stratify the risk of ShD and neonatal injury in the context of suspected macrosomia. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

P125. Development of a novel ensemble machine learning algorithm for prediction of complications and readmission after anterior cervical spinal fusion

Air pollution in Macau has become a serious problem following the Pearl River Delta’s (PRD) rapid industrialization that began in the 1990s. With this in mind, Macau needs an air quality forecast system that accurately predicts pollutant concentration during the occurrence of pollution episodes to warn the public ahead of time. Five different state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) algorithms were applied to create predictive models to forecast PM2.5, PM10, and CO concentrations for the next 24 and 48 h, which included artificial neural networks (ANN), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), and multiple linear regression (MLR), to determine the best ML algorithms for the respective pollutants and time scale. The diurnal measurements of air quality data in Macau from 2016 to 2021 were obtained for this work. The 2020 and 2021 datasets were used for model testing, while the four-year data before 2020 and 2021 were used to build and train the ML models. Results show that the ANN, RF, XGBoost, SVM, and MLR models were able to provide good performance in building up a 24-h forecast with a higher coefficient of determination (R2) and lower root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and biases (BIAS). Meanwhile, all the ML models in the 48-h forecasting performance were satisfactory enough to be accepted as a two-day continuous forecast even if the R2 value was lower than the 24-h forecast. The 48-h forecasting model could be further improved by proper feature selection based on the 24-h dataset, using the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) value test and the adjusted R2 value of the 48-h forecasting model. In conclusion, the above five ML algorithms were able to successfully forecast the 24 and 48 h of pollutant concentration in Macau, with the RF and SVM models performing the best in the prediction of PM2.5 and PM10, and CO in both 24 and 48-h forecasts.

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then, the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) methods in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML applications in wildfire science and management. Our overall objective is to improve awareness of ML methods among wildfire researchers and managers, as well as illustrate the diverse and challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to ML data scientists. To that end, we first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date and then review the use of ML in wildfire science as broadly categorized into six problem domains, including (i) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; (ii) fire weather and climate change; (iii) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; (iv) fire behavior prediction; (v) fire effects; and (vi) fire management. Furthermore, we discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches relating to data size, computational requirements, generalizability, and interpretability, as well as identify opportunities for future advances in the science and management of wildfires within a data science context. In total, to the end of 2019, we identified 300 relevant publications in which the most frequently used ML methods across problem domains included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. As such, there exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods — including deep learning and agent-based learning — in the wildfire sciences, especially in instances involving very large multivariate datasets. We must recognize, however, that despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods such as deep learning requires a dedicated and sophisticated knowledge of their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management communities play an active role in providing relevant, high-quality, and freely available wildfire data for use by practitioners of ML methods.

The number of deaths from cardiovascular disease is projected to reach 23.3 million by 2030. As a contribution to preventing this phenomenon, this paper proposed a machine learning (ML) model to predict patients with arteriosclerotic heart disease (AHD). We also interpreted the prediction model results based on the ML approach and deployed modelagnostic ML methods to identify informative features and their interpretations. We used a hematology Electronic Health Record (EHR) with information on erythrocytes, hematocrit, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, leukocytes, thrombocytes, age, and sex. To detect and predict AHD, we explored random forest (RF), XGBoost, and AdaBoost models. We examined the prediction model results based on the confusion matrix and accuracy measures. We used the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework to interpret the ML model and quantify the contribution of features to predictions. Our study included data from 6,837 patients, with 4,702 records from patients diagnosed with AHD and 2,135 records from patients without an AHD diagnosis. AdaBoost outperformed RF and XGBoost, achieving an accuracy of 0.78, precision of 0.82, F1-score of 0.85, and recall of 0.88. According to the SHAP summary bar plot method, hemoglobin was the most important attribute for detecting and predicting AHD patients. The SHAP local interpretability bar plot revealed that hemoglobin and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration had positive impacts on AHD prediction based on a single observation. ML models based on real clinical data can be used to predict AHD.

ObjectiveTo build a machine learning (ML) prediction model for prostate cancer (PCa) from transrectal ultrasound video clips of the whole prostate gland, diagnostic performance was compared with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).MethodsWe systematically collated data from 501 patients—276 with prostate cancer and 225 with benign lesions. From a final selection of 231 patients (118 with prostate cancer and 113 with benign lesions), we randomly chose 170 for the purpose of training and validating a machine learning model, while using the remaining 61 to test a derived model. We extracted 851 features from ultrasound video clips. After dimensionality reduction with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, 14 features were finally selected and the support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) algorithms were used to establish radiomics models based on those features. In addition, we creatively proposed a machine learning models aided diagnosis algorithm (MLAD) composed of SVM, RF, and radiologists’ diagnosis based on MRI to evaluate the performance of ML models in computer-aided diagnosis (CAD). We evaluated the area under the curve (AUC) as well as the sensitivity, specificity, and precision of the ML models and radiologists’ diagnosis based on MRI by employing receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) analysis.ResultsThe AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and precision of the SVM in the diagnosis of PCa in the validation set and the test set were 0.78, 63%, 80%; 0.75, 65%, and 67%, respectively. Additionally, the SVM model was found to be superior to senior radiologists’ (SR, more than 10 years of experience) diagnosis based on MRI (AUC, 0.78 vs. 0.75 in the validation set and 0.75 vs. 0.72 in the test set), and the difference was statistically significant (p< 0.05).ConclusionThe prediction model constructed by the ML algorithm has good diagnostic efficiency for prostate cancer. The SVM model’s diagnostic efficiency is superior to that of MRI, as it has a more focused application value. Overall, these prediction models can aid radiologists in making better diagnoses.

PurposeMachine learning models were developed and validated to identify lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) using clinical factors, laboratory metrics, and 2-deoxy-2[18F]fluoro-D-glucose ([18F]F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) radiomic features.MethodsOne hundred and twenty non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients (62 LUAD and 58 LUSC) were analyzed retrospectively and randomized into a training group (n = 85) and validation group (n = 35). A total of 99 feature parameters—four clinical factors, four laboratory indicators, and 91 [18F]F-FDG PET/CT radiomic features—were used for data analysis and model construction. The Boruta algorithm was used to screen the features. The retained minimum optimal feature subset was input into ten machine learning to construct a classifier for distinguishing between LUAD and LUSC. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors of the NSCLC subtype and constructed the Clinical model. Finally, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy (ACC) was used to validate the machine learning model with the best performance effect and Clinical model in the validation group, and the DeLong test was used to compare the model performance.ResultsBoruta algorithm selected the optimal subset consisting of 13 features, including two clinical features, two laboratory indicators, and nine PEF/CT radiomic features. The Random Forest (RF) model and Support Vector Machine (SVM) model in the training group showed the best performance. Gender (P=0.018) and smoking status (P=0.011) construct the Clinical model. In the validation group, the SVM model (AUC: 0.876, ACC: 0.800) and RF model (AUC: 0.863, ACC: 0.800) performed well, while Clinical model (AUC:0.712, ACC: 0.686) performed moderately. There was no significant difference between the RF and Clinical models, but the SVM model was significantly better than the Clinical model. ConclusionsThe proposed SVM and RF models successfully identified LUAD and LUSC. The results indicate that the proposed model is an accurate and noninvasive predictive tool that can assist clinical decision-making, especially for patients who cannot have biopsies or where a biopsy fails.