Can passive monetary policy decrease the debt burden?

Comment

We explore the importance of the nature of nominal price and wage adjustment for the design of effective monetary policy strategies, especially at the zero lower bound. Our analysis suggests that sticky-price and sticky-information models fit standard macroeconomic time series comparably well. However, the model with information rigidity responds differently to anticipated shocks and persistent zero-lower bound episodes -to a degree important for monetary policy and for understanding the effects of fundamental disturbances when monetary policy cannot adjust. These differences may be important for understanding other policy issues as well, such as fiscal multipliers. Despite these differences, many aspects of effective policy strategy are common across the two models: In particular, highly inertial interest rate rules that respond to nominal income or the price level perform well, even when hit by adverse supply shocks or large demand shocks that induce the zero-lower bound. Rules that respond to the level or change in the output gap can perform poorly under those conditions.

Nominal interest rates may remain substantially below the averages of the last half century, because central banks' inflation objectives lie below the average level of inflation, and estimates of the real interest rate that are likely to prevail over the long run fall notably short of the average real interest rate experienced during this period. Persistently low nominal interest rates may lead to more frequent and costly episodes at the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We revisit the frequency and potential costs of such episodes in a world of low interest rates, using both a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and the Federal Reserve's large-scale econometric model, the FRB/US model. Four main conclusions emerge. First, monetary policy strategies based on traditional, simple policy rules lead to poor economic performance when the equilibrium interest rate is low, with economic activity and inflation more volatile and systematically falling short of desirable levels. Moreover, the frequency and length of ELB episodes under such policy approaches are estimated to be significantly higher than in previous studies. Second, a risk adjustment to a simple rule—whereby monetary policymakers are more accommodative, on average, than prescribed by the rule—ensures that inflation averages its 2 percent objective, and requires that policymakers systematically seek inflation near 3 percent when the ELB is not binding. Third, commitment strategies, whereby monetary accommodation is not removed until either inflation or economic activity overshoots its long-run objective, are very effective in both the DSGE and FRB/US models. And fourth, our simulation results suggest that the adverse effects on economic and price stability associated with the ELB may be substantial at inflation targets near 2 percent if the equilibrium real interest rate is low and monetary policy follows a traditional approach. Whether such adverse effects could justify a higher inflation target depends upon the degree to which monetary policy strategies that differ substantially from such traditional approaches are feasible, and an assessment of a broader array of the inflation target's effects on economic welfare.

Countermeasures against economic crisis from COVID-19 pandemic in China: An analysis of effectiveness and trade-offs

The global Economic meltdown has effect on all the countries in the world. The Indian economy is also not exception to this situation because world economy cannot perform in seclusion in today's faster growing world. All the economies are interlinked to each other and any major ebb and flow in economic conditions causes numerous impacts for all other economies. The global economic crisis started with Subprime disaster in the US. Many strong economies are suffering from the crisis of credit and liquidity due to the interconnectedness of each other in international trade relations. This situation has the negative impacts on GDP, Employment, exports, FDI and economic development of the nation. Government and Policy makers are always taking precautionary measures for maintaining the economic stability and corrective actions in inflationary and recession situations. The striking balance of Monetary and Fiscal policies may help to overcome the situation to some extent. Monetary and Fiscal policies can be framed and implemented according to the economic situations. Central Banks of countries can influence the economy through the use of monetary policy by controlling the monetary variables such as rate of interest, the money supply and the volume of credit. The fiscal policy can be used to help on economy out of recession or reduce demand pressures in a boom. Monetary and fiscal policies are complementary to each other. Monetary policy influences the level of aggregate income and spending in the economy by influencing the money supply and cost of borrowing. Fiscal policy affects income and spending through its effects on size, composition and timing of government revenue and spending. These two policies can play the role in a perfect balancing for promotion of inclusive growth. This paper will focus on the important and balanced role of monetary and fiscal policy in economy with reference to the current scenario in Indian Economy.

The Philippines is highly exposed to natural hazards, which are increasingly intensified by climate change, yet quantitative studies on the macroeconomic effects of climate shocks in the country remains limited. This paper finds that category-5 typhoons exert inflationary pressures on regional headline and food CPI, by around 0.4 percent and 0.7 percent respectively, with the peak impact occurring approximately one quarter after the typhoon hits. Additionally, category-5 typhoons lower regional GDP by approximately 0.4 percent on impact (or by 0.2-0.3 percent of aggregate GDP), while agricultural labor productivity declines by 2.5 percent. These estimates show that typhoons act as adverse supply shocks, particularly in the agriculture sector, likely raising inflation while dampening economic activity and further posing a dilemma for monetary policy. We then use the IMF’s Global Dynamic Network (GDN) model to construct counterfactual scenarios to assess the importance of sectoral heterogeneity in shaping output and inflation outcomes and examine alternative monetary policy response functions, helping inform the central bank on tradeoffs between supporting output and containing inflationary pressures. Finally, we use the DIGNAD model to simulate the impacts of natural disasters and analyze the policy trade-offs involved in enhancing resilience to natural disasters and the macro-fiscal implications of various policy options for the Philippines.

The aim of this paper is to provide a detailed analysis of how the monetary policy of the National Bank of Serbia has been conducted, actively changed and adjusted in the post-crisis period, particularly in the circumstances of increased volatilities in international financial and commodity markets, and also to what extent we have been successful in achieving the legislative mandates - price and financial stability. Particular assessment was made as to whether the instruments that the National Bank of Serbia has used after the global economic crisis, especially after 2012, were appropriate in succesful achieving of those objectives, taking into account current and expected market developments. Achieving and preserving price and financial stability, though facing headwinds from the international environment, undoubtedly confirm that the current framework of monetary and macroprudential policy of the National Bank of Serbia was properly applied and that it delivered desired results. Through all key channels of transmission - the decline in interest rates on new and existing loans, increased availiability of loans and accelerated credit activity, provided relative stability of the exchange rate and well anchored inflation expectations - monetary policy contributed to more favorable business and investment conditions, household consumption and saving, and therefore to sustainable economic growth.

This study examines the policy determinants of bank default risk, proxied by credit default swap (CDS) spreads, using quarterly data from the U.S. and Canada for the period 2020 to 2022. The analysis considers four determinant groups: the COVID-19 pandemic shock, aggressive monetary and fiscal policy responses, macroprudential-related bank financial fundamentals, and macroeconomic and market conditions. Utilizing General Least Squares (GLS) and dynamic panel models with system General Method of Moments (GMM), the findings reveal that rising COVID-19 deaths significantly widen CDS spreads. Expansionary monetary policies reduce bank default risk, though the effectiveness under conventional monetary policy is reduced by increasing COVID-19 deaths. In contrast, expansionary fiscal policies and inflation broaden CDS spreads. The combined analysis highlights policy stances as dominant factors, with macroprudential-related fundamentals having minimal impact. The findings are robust using both 5-year and 10-year CDS measures. This study has significant policy implications during health and economic crises. For financial stability, policymakers should prioritize reducing pandemic-related deaths, utilize expansionary monetary policies with health support strategies, balance fiscal support to avoid excessive government spending, and implement measures to control inflation. It is essential to enhance coordination between healthcare, fiscal, and monetary authorities for effective policy implementation.

Behind productive and prosperous economies are independent central banks that implement effective monetary policies. This observation is especially valid for the G20, which comprises the world’s top twenty economies in terms of gross domestic product and the largest stakeholders of the global economic system. These economies include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Three features of this book, which focuses on central banking and monetary policy in the G20, an intergovernmental platform, stand out: Firstly, as contemporary theories and global practices confirm, the main purpose of central banks is to ensure monetary and price stability, not despite the government but in cooperation with it. This principle is strongly emphasized here. Governments, which must maintain fiscal discipline, are key to the success of central banks in combating inflation and deflation. Secondly, since the authors of the book chapters come from various countries and academic institutions, the book offers a range of perspectives and intellectual richness. Without deviating from the book's main axis, the authors examine the changing paradigms in central banking and the increasing challenges of monetary policy. This examination is based on developed and emerging economies, integrations, financial organizations, and economic crises within the G20, informed by significant sources. Thirdly, this book offers university researchers, professional business practitioners, and curious readers the opportunity to explore and reflect on new concepts such as green central banking, digital money, and interest-free monetary policies, which have gained prominence in the wake of the global COVID-19 pandemic, alongside mainstream topics. It is hoped that this book, consisting of 14 chapters, will inspire those who wish to conduct new and renewed academic studies on global central banks and monetary policies and will fill a gap in the literature.

This article examines the causes and effects of the real exchange rate appreciation in Colombia during the 1990s. The substantial appreciation of the real exchange rate during the 1990s was an important factor contributing to the economic crisis of 1998-2000. While a number of Colombian economists have argued that the real appreciation was an equilibrating response to real shocks, such as rising fiscal deficits, petroleum discoveries, and increased productivity, this paper argues that nominal variables (including the nominal exchange rate, monetary policy and capital flows) also played an important role. These transitory shocks caused the real exchange rate to overshoot its long-run equilibrium, contributing to the recent economic crisis and the necessity for the large nominal depreciation of the peso in 1998-99.

This study examines the effects of the SARS outbreak on China’s real economy using structural vector autoregression models. We find that SARS has had both temporary and persistent adverse effects on output. The temporary effects lasted for only one-quarter and the prolonged effects for approximately two years. By further analyzing China’s monetary policy, we find that the accommodative quantity-based monetary policy has greatly hedged the temporary effects of SARS. However, the persistent effects of SARS could have been alleviated if China had eased the price-based monetary policy after the outbreak.

Introduction. Economic cycles, the periodic emergence of economic imbalances, deep economic crises, the need for effective management of economic fluctuations have created the need to develop an effective mechanism for anti-cyclical economic regulation. As a result of the in-depth study of these problems, it has been established that the most effective instruments of anti-cyclical economic regulation are financial instruments owned by the state and divided into monetary and fiscal ones. They in turn are divided into discretionary and non-discretionary, and regulated by legislative acts and regulatory documents. As a result of a retrospective analysis of management of economic cycles through the use of financial means of the state, it has been proved that monetary policy is less sustainable than economic fiscal policy. On the contrary, for the last century, precarious monetary policy has caused many financial and economic upheavals; the world has seen at least three monetary and monetary systems that have been subject to a downturn every time. Therefore, it is not worth considering monetary policy sufficiently effective in the implementation of anti-cyclical regulation. While fiscal policies each time, in all economic crises, have played the role of a "lifeline" for countries that have taken anti-cyclical economic regulation measures. That is why the study of the problem of effective state management of socio-economic fluctuations is one of the most urgent issues of economic science. The goal of the work. To investigate the essence of monetary and fiscal instruments of counter-cyclical regulation of the economy, to identify their strengths and weaknesses, to propose effective mechanisms of counter-cyclical regulation of the economy, which would ensure economic development in the country. Methods. In the course of the research, general scientific and empirical methods of economic science based on a systematic approach are used, in particular: methods of scientific knowledge: dialectical and logical, analysis and synthesis, generalization, graphical, scientific abstraction - in the study of state financial policy in the field of anti-cyclical regulation of the economy. Results. The article deals with the essence of monetary and monetary systems, analyzes their weak and strong sides, identifies the causes of their decline. It was established that monetary factors influenced the emergence of centers of economic crises. The essence of fiscal policy, its types and models, and the way in which its instruments influence the course of the economic cycle are considered and deeply analyzed. The mechanisms of fiscal policy, which should be used by the state at different stages of the economic cycle, are singled out. It is proved that in economically developed countries during the economic crisis it is expedient to use a socially-oriented model of fiscal policy of acyclic nature that most effectively influences the overcoming of economic imbalances and is capable of ensuring the economic equilibrium in the country as soon as possible. Countries that effectively applied the liberal model of fiscal policy, in the conditions of the economic crisis, were forced to resort to transformation towards a more rigid fiscal intervention by the state in economic processes-they were forced to use socially-oriented, acyclic fiscal policies. Only the wider participation of the state in the regulation of economic processes have ensured the rapid and effective overcoming of economic crises, and contributed to the achievement of economic development in most countries of the world. Perspectives. The results of scientific research can be useful for scientists and practitioners who are engaged in research on problems of anti-cyclical regulation of the economy, state financial policy and, in particular, fiscal policy.

Stabilizing Expectations under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination

Comment

The paper considers the monetary policy of leading world central banks that were used to overcome the global financial and economic crisis in 2008–2009. Advanced developed countries managed to overcome this crisis, primarily through monetary mechanisms. For this purpose, a non-traditional monetary policy was invented and applied for the first time. It included the following: quantitative easing with a corresponding rapid growth of central bank liabilities; de facto maintaining a plurality of their objectives, including ensuring financial stability and reducing unemployment; and expanded participation of central banks in financing governments' budget deficits. The measures taken helped to overcome the recession in developed countries and promoted the transition to a trajectory of economic growth. The current practice of monetary policy normalization, initiated in the United States, involves a gradual increase in the key interest rate and a curtailment of central bank balances. However, in many developed countries (EU), the practice of non-traditional monetary policy is still persistent and is an important factor for determining the trends of the global economy. In general, the results of this policy can be evaluated differently, but it is important for Ukraine to conclude on the relevance of monetary policy to stimulate economic development. Global volatility, increasingly determined by trade wars and other forms of protectionism in global economies, poses challenges (primarily in terms of maintaining/enhancing export and production capacity). For the economy of Ukraine, which is vulnerable to external shocks, these factors, combined with internal centres of instability, form a bunch of complicated tasks, in particular in terms of the cessation of further loss of investment potential, which should be addressed rationally by the monetary policy instruments.