Challenging the allopatric patterns of night monkeys: ecological niche modeling within the Aotus lemurinus complex

Niche conservatism providing support for using ecological niche modeling in biological invasions has been widely noticed; nonetheless, the impacts of human disturbance on niche changes and model predictions are not fully recognized. In this study, climate niche changes during the invasion of Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica) were studied under the framework of niche unfilling, stability, and expansion situations. The beetle might undergo niche expansion because of the small native range (Japan) relative to the broad invade range (North America). Relative roles of climatic and anthropogenic factors and their interactions in determining the spread of P. japonica were investigated. Results suggest that the climate niche was conserved during P. japonica invasion, climate niche unfilling rather than niche expansion was observed, suggesting there are suitable climate space remain unoccupied. Inclusion of anthropogenic factors into climate niche model has improved niche model prediction values in areas of high human activity. During P. japonica invasion, anthropogenic factors influenced the climate niche expression and altered the effect of climate suitability. In areas of poor or unsuitable climate, the human activities facilitated the establishment of P. japonica and functioned synergistically, whereas in highly suitable areas, including anthropogenic variables decreased climate suitability. These findings are pivotal to our understanding of climate niche conservatism and niche model transferability when predicting areas of invasion of P. japonica and can be applied elsewhere for predicting other pest’s invasion potential.

The ecological niche is a key concept for elucidating patterns of species distributions and developing strategies for conserving biodiversity. However, recent times are seeing a widespread debate whether species niches are conserved across space and time (niche conservatism hypothesis). Biological invasions represent a unique opportunity to test this hypothesis in a short time frame at the global scale. We synthesized empirical findings for 434 invasive species from 86 studies to assess whether invasive species conserve their climatic niche between native and introduced ranges. Although the niche conservatism hypothesis was rejected in most studies, highly contrasting conclusions for the same species between and within studies suggest that the dichotomous conclusions of these studies were sensitive to techniques, assessment criteria, or author preferences. We performed a consistent quantitative analysis of the dynamics between native and introduced climatic niches reported by previous studies. Our results show there is very limited niche expansion between native and introduced ranges, and introduced niches occupy a position similar to native niches in the environmental space. These findings support the niche conservatism hypothesis overall. In particular, introduced niches were narrower for terrestrial animals, species introduced more recently, or species with more native occurrences. Niche similarity was lower for aquatic species, species introduced only intentionally or more recently, or species with fewer introduced occurrences. Climatic niche conservatism for invasive species not only increases our confidence in transferring ecological niche models to new ranges but also supports the use of niche models for forecasting species responses to changing climates.

Subtropical forest in China has received much attention due to its complex geologic environment and bioclimatic heterogeneity. There have been very few studies addressing which climatic factors have shaped both distribution patterns and niche differentiation of species from this region. It also remains unclear whether phylogenetic niche conservatism retains in plant species from this biodiversity-rich subtropical region in China. In this study, we used geographic occurrence records and bioclimatic factors of Prunus dielsiana (Rosaceae), a wild cherry species, combined with the classical ENM-based DIVA-GIS software to access contemporary distribution and richness patterns of its natural populations. The current distribution of P. dielsiana occupied a relatively wide range but exhibited an uneven pattern eastward in general, and the core distribution zone of its populations are projected to concentrate in the Wushan and Wuling Mountain ranges of western China. Hydrothermic variables, particularly the Temperature Seasonality (bio4) are screened out quantitatively to be the most influential factors that have shaped the current geographical patterns of P. dielsiana. By comparison with other sympatric families, climatic niche at regional scale showed a pattern of phylogenetic niche conservatism within cherry species of Rosaceae. The effect of habitat filtering from altitude is more significant than those of longitude and latitude. We conclude that habitat filtering dominated by limiting hydrothermic factors is the primary driving process of the diversity pattern of P. dielsiana in subtropical China.

An Ecological Framework for Modeling the Geography of Disease Transmission

Although climatic niche conservatism has been assumed by a large number of studies focused on climatic niche evolution, there are examples of climatic niche diversification and adaptation to changing climates. In this article, we reconstruct a climatic niche of scaly tree ferns (Cyatheaceae) using a rigorous analytical procedure which combines climatic niche modelling with reconstruction of continuous characters given a phylogenetic hypothesis. To estimate the limits to climatic niches of species, we used climate envelope modelling and ordination. Ancestral climatic niches of species were reconstructed by maximum likelihood and least-squares analyses. We observed a trend towards niche conservatism with occasional events of niche transformations in scaly tree ferns. We discuss the implications of our study with respect to the potential and limitations for applications of niche modelling to evolutionary studies. We suggest that future studies of evolution of climatic niches could be considerably improved by employing approaches enabling reconstruction of continuous response to climatic gradients. Further progress may also be achieved by exploring models of character evolution other than the Brownian motion model. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 165, 1–19.

Preferred prey reduce species realized niche shift and improve range expansion prediction

The history of the formation of the Tigris–Euphrates basins (TEB) and Karun River remains mostly unknown. To unravel their evolutionary history, we integrated the biogeography and climatic niche models of the freshwater fish with the largest natural distribution pattern. We investigated 16 species of the Barbinae subfamily with wide distributions and high diversity. Mitochondrial Cytb and COI genes were obtained from various locations via GenBank and utilized to generate a dated phylogeny and reconstructed ancestral areas with the BioGeoBEARS model. We used the BAMM tools to estimate rates of diversification through time. By integrating potential geographic distribution with 4 spatial climate variables, including maximum temperature of warmest month, minimum temperature of coldest month, temperature annual range, and annual precipitation, we reconstructed ancestral predicted niche occupancy (PNO) profiles using ecological niche modelling (ENM) method. Based on the evolution of endemic TEB and Karun River Barbinae, we hypothesized that ancestral clades appeared in the TEB in the late Oligocene/early Miocene (ca. 23.12 Mya) and dispersed to the basin from the mid-Miocene onward (ca. 14.33 Mya). Our results suggest that the mid-Miocene uplift of the Zagros Mountains likely impacted Karun River flow in southwestern Iran, contributing to the observed diversification patterns in Barbinae. In addition, niche divergence was dominant in Barbinae diversification, alongside phylogenetic niche conservatism. The study introduces a method combining phylogenetic, biogeographic, and niche modelling data to explore freshwater fish evolution in the Tigris–Euphrates and Karun basins, highlighting geological impacts on biodiversity and diversification processes.

Ecological niche modeling is an effective tool to characterize the spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, and it is especially useful for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species. The widespread submerged plant Hydrilla verticillata (hydrilla) has an obvious phylogeographical pattern: Four genetic lineages occupy distinct regions in native range, and only one lineage invades the Americas. Here, we aimed to evaluate climatic niche conservatism of hydrilla in North America at the intraspecific level and explore its invasion potential in the Americas by comparing climatic niches in a phylogenetic context. Niche shift was found in the invasion process of hydrilla in North America, which is probably mainly attributed to high levels of somatic mutation. Dramatic changes in range expansion in the Americas were predicted in the situation of all four genetic lineages invading the Americas or future climatic changes, especially in South America; this suggests that there is a high invasion potential of hydrilla in the Americas. Our findings provide useful information for the management of hydrilla in the Americas and give an example of exploring intraspecific climatic niche to better understand species invasion.

Niche divergence or conservatism and phenotypic adaptation are important in lineage diversification. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), morphology and ecological niche models to examine these processes in three subspecies of Sage Sparrow (Artemisiospiza belli belli, A. b. canescens and A. b. nevadensis) that breed in bioclimatically diverse ecoregions in western North America. Overall, mtDNA and morphology are congruent with subspecies, ecoregion and bioclimatic niche. Niche divergence, rather than niche conservatism, accompanied by phenotypic adaptation, is associated with lineage diversification between subspecies. This diversification has occurred with and without physical barriers or accompanying genetic divergence. Populations of A. b. canescens are divided by a montane barrier into two bioclimatic regions (San Joaquin Valley, Mojave Desert), where they are indistinguishable phenotypically, but show distinctive genetic patterns. Although there is no physical barrier between A. b. canescens in the San Joaquin Valley and A. b. belli in the Coast Ranges, these populations occupy different bioclimatic niches and are phenotypically, but not genetically, diagnosable. Niche overlap is greatest between A. b. canescens from the Mojave Desert and A. b. nevadensis from the Great Basin, yet these subspecies maintain distinctive phenotypes and mtDNA, even in local secondary contact and sympatry. Palaeoclimatic niche models for the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 21 000 bp) and the Last Interglacial (c. 120 000 bp) suggest that ecoregionally distinct populations of Artemisiospiza belli experienced different Pleistocene range fluctuations and glacial refugia, with temporal niche conservatism. Populations probably reached their current distributions as favourable climates and habitats expanded after the last glaciation. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, ••, ••–••.

Phylogenetic signal (PS) is the propensity of closely related species to resemble each other. PS has been tested across clades of terrestrial plants; however, insight for seagrasses is still lacking. Signatures of PS and models of niche (trait) evolution can help to detect phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC), that is, close relatives live in comparable niches. The initial goal of this study was to assess the pattern of PS for the world's seagrasses, by testing the non‐independence of phylogenetic relatedness and seagrass species traits. A phylogeny of 49 seagrasses was constructed, together with a matrix of nine traits covering morphological, life‐history and reproductive attributes. PS of traits was tested through complementary indices (Pagel's λ , Blomberg's K, Moran's I and Abouheif's C mean ). Three models of niche evolution (Brownian Motion, BM; Ornstein–Uhlenbeck, OU; Early Burst, EB) were then fitted to each trait and the multivariate trait matrix. Results supported the existence of strong PS for seagrasses, with a particularly large effect size for seagrass reproductive traits, which followed an EB evolution model. Local Indicators of Phylogenetic Association (local autocorrelation metrics that can help to identify areas of large autocorrelation) supported the presence of PS across seagrass lineages/clades, supported by the dominance of OU as the most parsimonious trait evolution model. The pattern of strong PS seems to be a consequence of long‐term PNC of seagrass traits after initial radiation. Synthesis : Our study highlights the relevance of evolution from common ancestors and shared history underpinning large seagrass phylogenetic structuring.

Evolutionary applications of phylogenetically-informed ecological niche modelling (ENM) to explore cryptic diversification over cryptic refugia

This chapter discusses the conceptual basis of using ecological niche modeling for discovering new elements of biodiversity. More specifically, it examines the use of ecological niche models to guide searches for and discovery of unknown populations of species as well as species limits. It also explains how niche conservatism provides some degree of predictability across related taxa and makes the use of niche models for discovering biodiversity possible. For applications focused on discovery of unknown species, the chapter shows that niche conservatism is necessary if predictions of likely distributional areas are to prove realistic. Finally, it reviews practical considerations that must be taken into account in applications of ecological niche models oriented at discovering biodiversity, along with the caveats and limitations of such applications.

Endogenous selection is often implicated in the maintenance of stability of natural hybrid zones. Environmental conditions often vary across these zones, suggesting that local adaptation to ecological conditions could also play a role in this process. We used niche modeling to investigate these alternatives in a hybrid zone between two species of brown lemur (Eulemur rufifrons and E. cinereiceps) in southeastern Madagascar. We produced ecological niche models (ENMs) for parental and hybrid populations and compared values of niche overlap to null expectations using identity and background tests. All three taxonomic groups had nonequivalent ENMs with limited spatial overlap, supporting a role for niche divergence and local adaptation in the maintenance of this zone. However, values of niche overlap between ENMs were not greater than null expectations controlling for background environmental differences. These results could suggest that taxa in this hybrid zone inhabit portions of their environments that are more similar to their backgrounds, i.e., niche conservatism. Nevertheless, we did find evidence of niche divergence when using background tests that examined environmental variables separately. Although we could not rule out models indicating selection against hybrids, most lines of evidence were consistent with predictions for the bounded superiority model of hybrid zone stability. This study thus provides support that exogenous, environmental selection may be responsible for maintaining the hybrid zone, and may be implicated in the evolutionary divergence of these taxa.

Niche dynamics of invasive alien plants (IAPs) play pivotal roles in biological invasion. Ageratina adenophora—one of the most aggressive IAPs in China and some parts of the world—poses severe ecological and socioeconomic threats. However, the spatiotemporal niche dynamics of A. adenophora in China remain unknown, which we aimed to elucidate in the present study. China, Mexico; using a unifying framework, we reconstructed the climate niche dynamics of A. adenophora and applied the optimal MaxEnt model to predict its potential geographical distribution in China. Furthermore, we compared the heterogeneity of A. adenophora niche between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). We observed a low niche overlap between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). Specifically, the niche of A. adenophora in China has distinctly expanded compared to that in Mexico, enhancing the invasion risk of this IAP in the former country. In fact, the climatic niche of A. adenophora in Mexico is a subset of that in China. The potential geographical distribution of A. adenophora is concentrated in the tropical and subtropical zones of Southwest China, and its geographical distribution pattern in China is shaped by the combination of precipitation and temperature variables. The niche dynamics of A. adenophora follow the hypothesis of niche shift and conservatism. The present work provides a unifying framework for studies on the niche dynamics of other IAPs worldwide.

Testing climatic niche divergence and modeling habitat suitability under conditions of climate change are important for developing strategies to limit the introduction and expansion of alien invasive weeds (AIWs) and providing important ecological and evolutionary insights. We assessed climatic niches in both native and invasive ranges as well as habitat suitability under climate change for eight representative Chinese AIWs from the American continent. We used climatic variables associated with occurrence records and developed ecological niche models with Maxent. Interestingly, the climatic niches of all eight AIWs diverged significantly between the native and invasive ranges (the American continent and China). Furthermore, the AIWs showed larger climatic niche breadths in the invasive ranges than in the native ranges. Our results suggest that climatic niche shifts between native and invasive ranges occurred. Thus, the occurrence records of both native and invasive regions must be considered when modeling and predicting the spatial distributions of AIWs under current and future climate scenarios. Owing to high habitat suitability, AIWs were more likely to expand into regions of low latitude, and future climate change was predicted to result in a shift in the AIWs in Qinghai and Tibet (regions of higher altitude) as well as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu (regions of higher latitude). Our results suggest that we need measures to prevent and control AIW expansion at the country‐wide level.