Chapter 12 - Bayesian Learning: Inference and the EM Algorithm

Objective: Data being missed is an unavoidable problem in cohort studies. This paper compares the imputation effect of eight common missing data imputation methods involved in cutting longitudinal data through simulation study to provide a valuable reference for the treatment of missing data in longitudinal studies. Methods: The simulation study is based on R language software and generates missing longitudinal data by the Monte Carlo method. By comparing the average absolute deviation, average relative deviation, and TypeⅠerror from the regression analysis of different imputation methods, the imputation effect of varying imputation methods on missing longitudinal data and the influence on subsequent multivariate analysis are evaluated. Results: The mean imputation, k nearest neighbor (KNN), regression imputation, and random forest all have a similar imputation effect, which is also steady. However, the hot deck is inferior to the above imputation methods. K-means clustering and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm are among the worst and unstable. Mean imputation, EM algorithm, random forest, KNN, and regression imputation can control TypeⅠerror. Still, multiple imputations, hot deck, and K-means clustering cannot effectively manage the TypeⅠerror. Conclusions: For missing data in longitudinal studies, mean imputation, KNN, regression imputation, and random forest can be used as better imputation methods under the mechanism of missing at random. When the missing ratio is not too large, multiple imputations and hot deck can also perform well, but K-means clustering and EM algorithm are not recommended.

Many diseases show dichotomous phenotypic variation but do not follow a simple Mendelian pattern of inheritance. Variances of these binary diseases are presumably controlled by multiple loci and environmental variants. A least-squares method has been developed for mapping such complex disease loci by treating the binary phenotypes (0 and 1) as if they were continuous. However, the least-squares method is not recommended because of its ad hoc nature. Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods have also been developed for binary disease mapping by incorporating the discrete nature of the phenotypic distribution. In the ML analysis, the likelihood function is usually maximized using some complicated maximization algorithms (e.g. the Newton-Raphson or the simplex algorithm). Under the threshold model of binary disease, we develop an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm to solve for the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs). The new EM algorithm is developed by treating both the unobserved genotype and the disease liability as missing values. As a result, the EM iteration equations have the same form as the normal equation system in linear regression. The EM algorithm is further modified to take into account sexual dimorphism in the linkage maps. Applying the EM-implemented ML method to a four-way-cross mouse family, we detected two regions on the fourth chromosome that have evidence of QTLs controlling the segregation of fibrosarcoma, a form of connective tissue cancer. The two QTLs explain 50-60% of the variance in the disease liability. We also applied a Bayesian method previously developed (modified to take into account sex-specific maps) to this data set and detected one additional QTL on chromosome 13 that explains another 26% of the variance of the disease liability. All the QTLs detected primarily show dominance effects.

The expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm is an iterative maximum likelihood procedure often used for estimating the parameters of a mixture model. Theoretically, increases in the likelihood function are guaranteed as the algorithm iteratively improves upon previously derived parameter estimates. The algorithm is considered to converge when all parameter estimates become stable and no further improvements can be made to the likelihood value. However, to reduce computational time, it is often common practice for the algorithm to be stopped before complete convergence using heuristic approaches. In this paper, we consider various stopping criteria and evaluate their effect on fitting Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) to patient length of stay (LOS) data. Although the GMM can be successfully fitted to positively skewed data such as LOS, the fitting procedure often requires many iterations of the EM algorithm. To our knowledge, no previous study has evaluated the effect of different stopping criteria on fitting GMMs to skewed distributions. Hence, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of various stopping criteria in order to select and justify their use within a patient spell classification methodology. Results illustrate that criteria based on the difference in the likelihood value and on the GMM parameters may not always be a good indicator for stopping the algorithm. In fact we show that the values of the difference in the variance parameters should be used instead, as these parameters are the last to stabilise. In addition, we also specify threshold values for the other stopping criteria.

One effective iterative method for estimating parameters in latent variable probabilistic models is the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, which finds extensive use in classification issues. A versatile probabilistic framework for modeling data from multiple Gaussian distributions, Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) employ EM for parameter estimation, which is explored in this article. Problems with class membership estimation (including means, covariances, and mixing coefficients) are the primary focus of this study. Starting with initial parameter estimations, estimating posterior probabilities in the E-step, and repeatedly updating model parameters in the M-step until convergence, the technique entails applying the EM algorithm on both synthetic and real-world datasets. In order to measure performance, we compare it to K-means and other baseline classifiers using measures like classification accuracy, Adjusted Rand Index (ARI), and log-likelihood progression. When data is distributed according to a multimodal Gaussian distribution, the findings show that EM-GMM provides better parameter estimation and better classification accuracy. Initialization procedures have a substantial effect on performance, as convergence study further shows. In addition to reiterating the EM algorithm's usefulness for probabilistic classification, this paper also describes its advantages and disadvantages and offers suggestions for improving its performance in settings with high-dimensional data and noise.

The traditional Expectation-Maximization (EM) training of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is essentially a batch mode procedure which requires the multiple data samples with the sufficient size to update the model parameters. This severely limits the deployment and adaptation of GMM in many real-time online systems since the newly observed data samples are expected to be incorporated into the system upon available via retraining the model. This paper presents a new online incremental EM training procedure of GMM, which aims to perform the EM training incrementally and so can adapt GMM online sample by sample. The proposed method is extended on two kinds of EM algorithms for GMM, namely, Split-and-Merge EM and the traditional EM. Experiments on both the synthetic data and a speech processing task show the advantages and efficiency of the new method.

This paper addresses the problem of initialization of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of Gaussian mixture models. In order to avoid local maxima of the likelihood function, a genetic algorithm (GA) which searches for best initial conditions of the EM algorithm is proposed. In the GA, a chromosome represents a set of initial conditions, in which initial mean vectors of mixture components are feature vectors chosen from the training set. The chromosome also encodes variances of initial spherical covariance matrices of mixture components. To evaluate each chromosome in the GA we run the EM algorithm until convergence and use the obtained log likelihood as the fitness. In computational experiments our approach was applied to clustering problem and tested on two datasets from the image processing domain. The results indicate that our method outperforms the standard multiple restart EM algorithm and is at least comparable to the state-of-the art random swap EM method.

Model-based clustering approaches concern the paradigm of exploratory data analysis relying on the finite mixture model to automatically find a latent structure governing observed data. They are one of the most popular and successful approaches in cluster analysis. The mixture density estimation is generally performed by maximizing the observed-data log-likelihood by using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. However, it is well-known that the EM algorithm initialization is crucial. In addition, the standard EM algorithm requires the number of clusters to be known a priori. Some solutions have been provided in [31], [12] for model-based clustering with Gaussian mixture models for multivariate data. In this paper we focus on model-based curve clustering approaches, when the data are curves rather than vectorial data, based on regression mixtures. We propose a new robust EM algorithm for clustering curves. We extend the model-based clustering approach presented in [31] for Gaussian mixture models, to the case of curve clustering by regression mixtures, including polynomial regression mixtures as well as spline or B-spline regressions mixtures. Our approach both handles the problem of initialization and the one of choosing the optimal number of clusters as the EM learning proceeds, rather than in a twofold scheme. This is achieved by optimizing a penalized log-likelihood criterion. A simulation study confirms the potential benefit of the proposed algorithm in terms of robustness regarding initialization and funding the actual number of clusters.

In a distribution power network, the load model has no certain pattern or predicted behaviour due to large range of data and changes in energy consumption for end-user consumers. Thus, a powerful analysis based on probabilistic structure is required. For this paper Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) has been used. GMM is a powerful probability model that allows different types of load distributions to be presented as a combination of several Gaussian distributions. The parameters of GMM is unknown for large random data such as real load data and these parameters can be identified by Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. This paper presents a method to evaluate probabilistic load data concerning the time-evolution of any type of distribution load for any duration of time. The proposed method is explained through generated load data of 100 residential houses for duration of one year.

On convergence and parameter selection of the EM and DA-EM algorithms for Gaussian mixtures

A generalized linear finite mixture model and an EM algorithm to fit the model to data are described. By this approach the finite mixture model is embedded within the general framework of generalized linear models (GLMs). Implementation of the proposed EM algorithm can be readily done in statistical packages with facilities for GLMs. A practical example is presented where a generalized linear finite mixture model of ten Weibull distributions is adopted. The example is concerned with the flow cytometric measurement of the DNA content of spermatids in a mutant mouse, which shows non-disjunction of specific chromosomes during meiosis.

The accurate modeling of uncertain variables, such as wind power and load uncertainty, is an essential foundation for the planning operation and scheduling decisions in power systems. Currently, Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) are the primary techniques used to characterize uncertainties in power systems, which are commonly solved by expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. However, for the massive data of uncertain variables, the algorithm encounters challenges in accurately obtaining GMM and DPMM with a lower time consumption. To address this issue, we propose a method for GMM uncertainty modeling in power systems considering the mutual assistance of latent variables. Specifically, the GMM of uncertain variables is first constructed, and the conditional probability is employed to characterize the mutual assistance of latent variables. Then, an improved EM algorithm is developed to obtain the optimal GMM parameters, in which the expectation step (E-step) and maximization step (M-step) of the algorithm are revised using the conditional probability. Importantly, the closed-form solutions for GMM parameters are rederived in the revised E-step and M-step. Finally, the proposed uncertainty modeling method is compared with the traditional GMM and DPMM on actual wind power and load data from Australia. The proposed method performs the efficiency and accuracy in characterizing uncertainty.

The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a popular approach for parameter estimation of finite mixture model (FMM). A drawback of this approach is that the number of components of the finite mixture model is not known in advance, nevertheless, it is a key issue for EM algorithms. In this paper, a penalized minimum matching distance-guided EM algorithm is discussed. Under the framework of Greedy EM, a fast and accurate algorithm for estimating the number of components of the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is proposed. The performance of this algorithm is validated via simulative experiments of univariate and bivariate Gaussian mixture models.

In recent year, stock investor in Indonesia increased rapidly, so it is required to do analysis about the stock that helps the investor in their investment plan. Clustering is beneficial to select the appropriate stock for investors. Unfortunately, stock prices keep varying from time to time. Consequently, it is not an easy work to select the stock for investment. In addition, stock price time series data are high dimensional data that influenced by many factors. In this study, high dimensional data are obtained by the time frame of each factor. Therefore, it is important to use a suitable technique to cluster high dimensional data. This paper presents High Dimensional Data Clustering (HDDC), a model-based clustering based on Gaussian Mixture Model, using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. HDDC via EM algorithm gives a more robust result, and it possible to make an additional assumption. Moreover, this paper combines a high-dimensional clustering technique HDDC via EM algorithm and the most popular feature extraction technique Principal Component Analysis (PCA). This paper comparing methods of clustering technique HDDC and the combination between HDDC and PCA to know the most effective method which gives better result in clustering high-dimensional time series data. The 155 data features are reduced to 7 principal components using PCA analysis. Despite PCA has increased the time efficiency of building the model, clustering technique HDDC via EM algorithm enables to handle the high-dimensional data better than the combination with PCA.

A region and gradient based active contour model and its application in boundary tracking on anal canal ultrasound images

The accurate reconstruction of vehicle paths is essential for effective highway toll management. To address the challenge of multiple possible paths due to missing trajectory data, this study proposes a novel two-stage model for vehicle path reconstruction. In the first stage, a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is integrated into a path choice model to estimate the mean and standard deviation of travel times for each road segment, utilizing an improved Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. In the second stage, based on the estimated time parameters, path choice prior probabilities and observed data are combined using maximum likelihood estimation to infer the most probable paths among candidate routes. The results indicate that the improved EM algorithm achieved convergence in 17 iterations compared to 41 iterations for the traditional EM algorithm. The two-stage model outperforms the Shortest Path and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory models in path reconstruction, particularly with a high number of missing trajectory points. Additionally, when the number of candidate paths K=4, the path reconstruction performance is optimal. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in handling sparse and incomplete trajectory data, offering robust and accurate vehicle path estimations that enhance traffic management and toll calculation precision.