Chapter 4 Net Worth and Housing Equity in Retirement

Aside from Social Security and, for some, employer-provided pensions, housing equity is the principle asset of a large fraction of older Americans. Many retired persons have essentially no financial assets to support retirement consumption. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD), and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to understand the extent to which families use housing equity to support general consumption in retirement. The initial analysis is based on self-assessed home values reported by survey respondents. Because the self-assessments exaggerate actual home equity, much of the subsequent analysis is based on the selling price of recently sold homes, together with the reported equity in recently purchased homes. Homeowners can change home equity by either discontinuing ownership or by purchasing another home of lesser or greater value. We find that in the absence of a precipitating shock-death of a spouse or entry of a family member into a nursing home--families are unlikely to discontinue home ownership. And even when there is a precipitating shock, discontinuing ownership is the exception rather than the rule. On average, families that move and purchase a new home tend to increase home equity. We find, however, that income-poor and house-rich families are more likely to reduce equity when they move, while house-poor and income-rich households are more likely to increase housing equity. Overall, accounting for discontinuing ownership and moving to another home, housing equity increases with age until about age 75 and then declines slightly as households grow older. The overall decline among older households (surveyed in the AHEAD) is about 1.76 percent per year, and this decline is largely accounted for by a 7.84 percent decline among households who experience a precipitating shock. Families that remain intact reduce housing equity very little, about 0.11 percent per year for two-person households and 1.15 percent per year for one-person households. We conclude that, on average, home equity is not liquidated to support general non-housing consumption needs as households age.

House Price Appreciation Among Elderly Home Owners in Australia

Urbanization precipitates substantial economic transformations, with housing markets playing a pivotal role. The expansion of cities escalates housing demand, subsequently increasing housing debt, which is a crucial factor influencing household consumption. This study utilizes data from six rounds of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) spanning 2010 to 2020 to investigate the impact of housing debt on household consumption in urban China. Given the dynamics changes in housing debt status, as well as the endogeneity problems caused by reverse causality and selection bias between households’ debt decisions and consumption behavior, this study employs both the difference-in differences with multiple periods and groups (DIDM) model and the two-way fixed effects model. The results show that the average consumption expenditure of households with housing debt is 14% higher than those without. A 1% increase in housing debt size correlates with a 0.011% rise in consumption. Moreover, this positive effect is more pronounced among low-income households and those with older household heads, as well as those owning multiple properties. Compared to non-durable consumption, the impact of housing debt is more substantial on durable consumption. Further mechanism analysis reveals that the effect of housing debt on household consumption is primarily driven by an increase in housing assets, spurred by the rising housing prices. This study underscores the importance of integrating housing debt management within the framework of sustainable urban development, which not only ensures equitable access to housing but also fosters the promotion of sustainable consumption.

This chapter reviews empirical estimates of differential income and consumption growth across individuals during recessions. Most existing studies examine the variation in income and consumption growth across individuals by sorting on ex ante or contemporaneous income or consumption levels. We build on this literature by showing that differential shocks to household net worth coming from elevated household debt and the collapse in house prices play an underappreciated role. Using zip codes in the United States as the unit of analysis, we show that the decline in numerous measures of consumption during the Great Recession was much larger in zip codes that experienced a sharp decline in housing net worth. In the years prior to the recession, these same zip codes saw high house price growth, a substantial expansion of debt by homeowners, and high consumption growth. We discuss what models seem most consistent with this striking pattern in the data, and we highlight the increasing body of macroeconomic evidence on the link between household debt and business cycles. Our main conclusion is that housing and household debt should play a larger role in models exploring the importance of household heterogeneity on macroeconomic outcomes and policies.

A change of housing price has great impact on households’ housing equity and further moving decision. Some previous studies reveal that whether owning a home is an important factor of residential mobility, and a declining housing price may cause mobility lock-in effect and higher unemployment (Henely1998; Hsieh et al. 2003; Zabel 2012; Blozea and Skak 2016). However, some other studies find that the influences of housing price on residential mobility and unemployment are not significant as expected (Engelhardt 2003; Coulson and Grieco 2013; Vallentta 2013) or the influences are only significant in a smaller regional level but not significant in a national level (Modestino and Dennet 2013). This study reexamines their relationship by using panel cointegration method and the city level panel data during 1994 and 2017 in Taiwan. The empirical results reveal that housing price are cointegrated with migration and unemployment, and the influences of housing price on migration and unemployment are significantly positive and negative respectively in the long run. However, the influences of housing price on migration and unemployment are not as significant as expected in the short run. We used quantile regression to further examine their short run relationships. It shows that the influence of housing price on migration and unemployment might be asymmetric.

Equity in housing is a major component of household wealth in the United States. Steady gains in housing prices over the last several decades have generated large potential gains in household wealth among homeowners. Mankiw and Weil (1989) and McFadden (1993b) have argued that the aging of the US population is likely to induce substantial declines in housing prices, resulting in capital losses for future elderly generations. However, if households can anticipate changes in housing prices, and if they adjust their non-housing savings accordingly, then welfare losses in retirement could be mitigated. This paper focuses on two questions: (1) Are housing prices forecastable from current information on demographics and housing prices?; and (2) How are household savings decisions affected by capital gains in housing? We use metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level data on housing prices and demographic trends during the 1980's and find mixed evidence on the forecastability of housing prices. Further, we use data on five-year savings rates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and find no evidence that households engage in changing their non-housing savings in response to expectations about capital gains in housing. Thus, the projected decline in housing prices could result in large welfare losses to current homeowners and large intergenerational equity differences.

Small business lending programs designed to move disadvantaged low-income people into business ownership have been difficult to implement successfully in the U.S. context. Based in part on the premise that financing requirements are an entry barrier limiting the ability of aspiring entrepreneurs to create small businesses, these programs are designed to alleviate such barriers for low net-worth individuals with limited borrowing opportunities. The authors’ analysis tracks through time nationally representative samples of adults to investigate the role of financial constraints and other factors delineating self-employment entrants from nonentrants. Paying particular attention to lines of business most accessible to adults lacking college credentials and substantial personal net worth, the authors’ analysis yields no evidence that financial capital constraints are a significant barrier to small-firm creation.

Linking household composition of older persons and material well-being is an important step toward understanding quality of life among elders in less developed settings. The association is particularly important in sub-Saharan Africa, given the poverty in the region. Ordinary least square regressions using data from 23 countries examine how age composition among all households and presence of offspring and grandchildren among older person households associates with a wealth index that is based on ownership of resources and housing characteristics, and whether the association is consistent across countries. Results indicate older-person-only households, and older persons with youth, have, generally, less wealth than households with other age compositions. Among older person households, those without offspring or grandchildren and skip-generation households fare worst in most countries. Findings highlight the importance of considering older persons households when assessing material well-being and chances of living in poverty in poor regions of the world.

This report analyses the farm performance data contributed through the OECD Network for Farm-level Analysis. It first compares the distribution of four economic performance indicators across nine participating countries or regions for selected farm types (output and input ratio, and net operating income per unit of labour, land and net worth). The comparative analysis shows significant differences in farm economic performances within countries as well as across countries. It implies that promoting the adoption of existing best practice and improving the resource allocation can lead to a significant improvement in the sector’s performance. The factor analysis found that large farm size is a factor of high economic performance for most types of farms across countries, but it also identified other relevant factors of high performance independent of the farm size factor, such as younger age, higher education, and use of financial leverage. See also OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers No. 46 “Distribution of support and income in agriculture” (http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kgch21wkmbx-en).

A Presentation: Negative Net Worth: A Comparison of Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID) Estimates

The good, the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market

Over much of the past 25 years, the cycles of house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronised. Three main hypotheses for this co-movement have been proposed in the literature. First, that an increase in house prices raises households' wealth, particularly for those in a position to trade down the housing ladder, which increases their desired level of expenditure. Second, that house price growth increases the collateral available to homeowners, reducing credit constraints and thereby facilitating higher consumption. And third, that house prices and consumption have tended to be influenced by common factors. This paper finds that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households, which appears to contradict the wealth channel. These findings therefore suggest that common causality has been the most important factor behind the link between house price and consumption.

In its basic structure, the reverse mortgage (RM) is a contract where a home owner borrows a part or the totality of the future liquidation value of his home at the time of his death. The risks that are borne by the lender are linked to the volatility of the real estate market, that is the house price risk, the financial market risk, that is the interest rate risk, and the uncertainty of the borrower’s lifetime, that is the longevity risk. The quantification of the future liquidation value and its valuation at the issue time is fundamental in the construction of the RM contract either in the perspective of the lender or in the one of the borrower. In the paper, we explore the use of neural networks to project the real estate market data; this approach allows to obtain a predictive analysis of the pricing process and indeed provides a dynamic pricing algorithm.

Trends in oral anticoagulant co-prescription with antiepileptic drugs among adults with epilepsy, 2010–2018

Growing income inequality in most countries in the 1990s and 2000s led to a global shortfall between supply and demand. The US economy bridged this shortfall domestically and globally by blowing successive equity market and housing bubbles, but these produced ever more severe financial crises. Rebalancing after the 2008 crisis required trade surplus countries to expand their non-traded sectors, but rebalancing is never immaculate. Instead, the Federal Reserve Bank's three rounds of Large-Scale Asset Purchases, or quantitative easing, shifted investment flows towards some developed and developing economies. As a matter of accounting, capital inflows led to shrinking trade surpluses in those countries. However, their relatively undeveloped securities markets mean that rebalancing largely occurred through rising housing prices, mirroring the same unsustainable phenomenon the USA experienced in the 2000s. In effect, the USA shifted part of its unsustainably large non-traded sector back to trade surplus countries by causing the real-estate part of the non-traded sector in surplus countries to expand. However, this is not a sustainable solution to global trade and financial imbalances in the long run, and risks producing the same kind of crises the USA experienced in 2008.