CHAPTER 6 - SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6 - Capacity Planning and Systems Optimization

This paper reviews recent developments in the use of practical queueing­ based tools, particularly queueing network models, to study the performance of computer systems. We emphasize those research results that have been responsible for the successful transfer of this technology-the widespread use of these tools in computer system design, sizing, and capacity planning by people whose expertise lies in these application areas, rather than in modeling or mathematics. Queueing theory as a discipline dates from the 1920s. Almost without exception, the results of the early decades concern models of single conges­ tion points. These results encompass a wide variety of specific assumptions about the arrival process, the service process, the scheduling discipline, the queue size limitation, etc. Applications of these single resource models are found in many areas, particularly operations research, management science, and industrial engineering. In computer system engineering, these models have met with great success when used by skilled practitioners for the one-time analysis of subsystems, e.g. a specific communication network

This article illustrates the integration of discrete event simulation into the capacity planning process of a tier two automobile supplier. In this application, the capacity planning process is able to generate a schedule for the 30% of the product line which generates 80% of the business. The schedule is feasible based on the ability to produce sufficient inventory to cover customer demand. The capacity planning process was unable to develop a schedule for the production of the remaining 70% of the product line or take into account shortages in customer supplied materials used in the production process. Simulation is used to validate the capacity planning process as well as generate a schedule for the remaining products during the planning period as well as: evaluating the plan for customer supplied materials; identifying potential areas for improvement in the production process and determining material storage requirements for the facilities planner.

Electro mobility represents a key concept in response to current trends in the mobility sector. Yet, strong uncertainties regarding future demand of electric vehicles pose major challenges for capacity planning and procurement. Current forecasts predict a total market share of electric vehicles between 3 % and 24 % in 2025. This paper presents a study that aims to shed light on the challenges of capacity planning. We provide insights on the requirements of volume flexibility and changeability in the production and purchasing of electrified powertrains. The study relies on expert interviews in the field of production and procurement. We interviewed 13 managers from three leading, premium German carmakers. The interviews were conducted using a semi-structured guide that addresses six hypotheses concerning market development, long-term capacity planning, identification and definition of courses of action, interdependencies between the production and the supplier, specifics of the production system for electrified powertrains, and access to resources. The study's results show that demand volatility of electrified vehicles is expected to persist for the next 5 years. Consequently, existing demand uncertainties lead to a high number of different planning scenarios. This challenges capacity planners to provide enough capacity by relying on flexibility or changeability measures. Differences in supplier structures further require automotive OEM to change their mindset and to implement new processes. Despite those substantial changes, however, the task of purchasing remains vital to prevent quality losses or significant cost increases. Lastly, we show the importance of integrating supplier and purchasing department capacity planning process. Our main results indicate the need for developing a decision support system. It supports supply chain capacity planning of electric drive trains in order to enable fast and efficient reactions to volatile volumes.

For service providers of multi-tiered component-based applications, such as web portals, assuring high performance and availability to their customers without impacting revenue requires effective and careful capacity planning that aims at minimizing the number of resources, and utilizing them efficiently while simultaneously supporting a large customer base and meeting their service level agreements. This paper presents a novel, hybrid capacity planning process that results from a systematic blending of 1) analytical modeling, where traditional modeling techniques are enhanced to overcome their limitations in providing accurate performance estimates; 2) profile-based techniques, which determine performance profiles of individual software components for use in resource allocation and balancing resource usage; and 3) allocation heuristics that determine minimum number of resources to allocate software components. Our results illustrate that using our technique, performance (i.e., bounded response time) can be assured while reducing operating costs by using 25% less resources and increasing revenues by handling 20% more clients compared to traditional approaches.

Valuing data in aircraft maintenance through big data analytics: A probabilistic approach for capacity planning using Bayesian networks

With the vast amount of capital invested in the wafer fab facility, how to effectively utilize the capacity is always a crucial challenge for semiconductor capacity planners. Currently, static capacity planning approach is widely applied to estimate the planned capacity; however, fab management believes that the ideal planned capacity is too optimistic and unachievable since many production constraints and the impact of abnormal events (e.g., machine breakdown) are not considered. Therefore, a managerial question must be solved: “What is the reasonable capacity plan?” Hence, this paper aims to develop an object-oriented capacity analysis and planning simulation (CAPS) model, which takes into account the production constraints, the operation characteristics of machine tools (e.g., multi-chamber), and the dispatching rules applied in a full-scale wafer fab. Then, capacity planners may employ CAPS model to study the impact of the available time (AT) and its fluctuation of critical machine tools to fab overall capacity and output performance (e.g., wafer out, utilization, work in process (WIP)); a reasonable planned capacity may be generated. Consequently, fab managers only need to watch attentively on the key machine tools, which will cause high impact on the throughput, and keep their promised AT level or increase AT level.

Matrix acidizing treatments containing hydrogen fluoride (HF) acid have been utilized in stimulation treatments of offshore wells to remove skin associated with fines migration for many years. In the last few years, operators have moved toward the use of organic acid – HF acid treatments due to corrosion concerns in the downhole tubular strings during the initial pumping of live acid and in the Titanium Stress Joints (TSJ) during the acid flow back through the production riser. A corrosion inhibitor to inhibit any unspent HF in the acid flowback returns would be beneficial to operators. Production of spent acid flowing back through the production riser is seriously being considered because significant cost savings may be realized over other acid flowback options. However, although most HF acid systems are mostly and/or highly spent during the reaction time with the formation mineralogy, even small concentrations of remaining free HF in the spent acid returns can result in severe bore surface corrosion (etching) and by-product hydrogen absorption by the riser system TSJ. Lab studies were performed with several different inhibitor formulations added to two different spent organic – HF acid fluid systems to determine the ability for these candidate inhibitors to thwart corrosion (etching) and corresponding hydrogen uptake on ASTM Grade 29 titanium (Ti-29) test coupons. These candidate inhibitors were subjected to four-hour exposure tests conducted at 170°F under 3500 psi pressure with various inhibitor concentrations to determine if the package could meet screening criteria of corrosion/etch rate of less than 0.5 mils per day (0.5 thousandths of an inch) and hydrogen uptake limits consistent with ASTM product specification limits for the short term exposure (i.e., four hours). These lab test results are compared to those from recent published lab test studies on titanium in live and spent HF containing acid fluids, along with discussion on practical implications and considerations for their field use. Developing a corrosion inhibitor to inhibit the residual HF acid in the spent flowback returns and prevent etching and hydrogen uptake by the TSJ in the production risers not only yields effective protection of the TSJ, allowing flowback fluids to be returned thru the production riser, but also offers a significant operational cost savings.

Demand response (DR) is a cost-effective and environmentally friendly approach for mitigating the uncertainties in renewable energy integration by taking advantage of the flexibility of customers' demands. However, existing DR programs suffer from either low participation due to strict commitment requirements or not being reliable in voluntary programs. In addition, the capacity planning for energy storage/reserves is traditionally done separately from the demand response program design, which incurs inefficiencies. Moreover, customers often face high uncertainties in their costs in providing demand response, which is not well studied in literature. This paper first models the problem of joint capacity planning and demand response program design by a stochastic optimization problem, which incorporates the uncertainties from renewable energy generation, customer power demands, as well as the customers' costs in providing DR. We propose online DR control policies based on the optimal structures of the offline solution. A distributed algorithm is then developed for implementing the control policies without efficiency loss. We further offer enhanced policy design by allowing flexibilities into the commitment level. We perform real world trace based numerical simulations. Results demonstrate that the proposed algorithms can achieve near optimal social costs, and significant social cost savings compared to baseline methods.

Enhancing capacity planning through forecasting: An integrated tool for maintenance of complex product systems

BackgroundAddressing noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) necessitates coordinated, country-tailored responses. The NCD Capacity Assessment and Planning (N-CAP) Process is a tool that strengthens public health functions and promotes multisectoral collaboration to achieve more sustainable and impactful progress. This case study describes the piloting and implementation of the N-CAP Process in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.MethodsThe N-CAP Process includes three sequential, facilitator-led activities: stakeholder mapping, a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats Workshop (SWOT), and an N-CAP Workshop. Jordan, Iraq, and Pakistan were identified as countries with ministries of health with sufficient resources to implement the N-CAP Process and its recommendations. The N-CAP Process was piloted in Jordan (2021), revised for Iraq (2022), and implemented in its final version in Pakistan (2023). Qualified local facilitators and recorders were trained in each country prior to use. Stakeholder mapping was conducted in coordination with the ministries of health to identify multisectoral, technical, and policy stakeholders to participate in the activities. The SWOT Workshops convened stakeholders to assess the current landscape and identify critical NCD public health functions. The N-CAP Workshops used discussion guides to facilitate assessment and planning exercises that helped participants determine how to strengthen capacity within the critical NCD area.ResultsThe N-CAP Process led stakeholders to assess their country’s efforts across six public health domains (strategic direction, systems, resources, quality, engagement, and impact) and create prioritized recommendations or a plan to reach a higher level of functioning to better address NCDs. Participants in Jordan, Iraq, and Pakistan used the N-CAP Process to focus on data-to-action, coalition strengthening, and surveillance, respectively. While each country’s outcomes were unique and context-specific, common themes emerged, including health workforce, health information, health financing, and leadership and governance, all of which contribute to health system strengthening in different ways.ConclusionsThe N-CAP Process effectively creates structured, multisectoral recommendations and actionable plans to increase national capacity to address public health threats, such as NCDs. By facilitating comprehensive assessments and fostering governmental and multisectoral engagement, the N-CAP Process serves as an adaptable resource for countries and other regions grappling with similar public health challenges.

To quantify the cost savings of palliative care (PC) and identify differences in savings according to team structure, patient diagnosis, and timing of consult. Hospital administrative records on all inpatient stays at five hospital campuses from January 2009 through June 2012. The analysis matched PC patients to non-PC patients (separately by discharge status) using propensity score methods. Weighted generalized linear model regressions of hospital costs were estimated for the matched groups. Data were restricted to patients at least 18 years old with inpatient stays of between 7 and 30 days. Variables available included patient demographics, primary and secondary diagnoses, hospital costs incurred for the inpatient stay, and when/if the patient had a PC consult. We found overall cost savings from PC of $3,426 per patient for those dying in the hospital. No significant cost savings were found for patients discharged alive; however, significant cost savings for patients discharged alive could be achieved for certain diagnoses, PC team structures, or if consults occurred within 10 days of admission. Appropriately selected and timed PC consults with physician and RN involvement can help ensure a financially viable PC program via cost savings to the hospital.

Sterilization network design

INTRODUCTION: Biosimilar products play an important role in improving the access to biological medicines for an increased number of patients and enhancing the financial sustainability of the health systems.AIM: To assess the cost saving potential associated with the introduction of two biosimilars (Benepali® and Flixabi®) vs. their respective reference biological products on the European and Italian markets.METHODS: A budget impact model was developed to estimate the cost saving of the hypothetical introduction of Benepali® and Flixabi® vs. Enbrel® and Remicade®, respectively, in three European countries. The analysis was conducted from the payer perspective, over a 3-year period. In addition, the same model was used to assess the impact of Benepali® vs. Enbrel® in three Italian regions over a 2-year period. The model compares the costs associated with the current treatment patterns, used to manage patients with all the conditions which Benepali® and Flixabi® are authorized for, with that of a hypothetical treatment pattern in which biosimilar products have been introduced. Only direct costs associated with the drug acquisition were considered. The model was constructed using published country- or region-specific data, where available. Annual drug acquisition costs were calculated using the dosing information from SPCs and country-/region-specific price lists.RESULTS: The introduction of Benepali® and Flixabi® in the biologic therapeutic setting of three European countries resulted in substantial cost savings across the entire scenario, with different penetration over a 3-year period. Similarly, over a 2-year horizon, the introduction of Benepali® in the biologic therapeutic setting of three Italian regions resulted in significant cost savings. In all cases, the greater savings were observed in the scenario where the biosimilars’ penetration was higher.CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of Benepali® and Flixabi® has a substantial cost saving potential for the Italian and European health systems, and the budget impact is sensitive to the uptake rates of the biosimilars market.

Cost savings associated with changes in routine laboratory tests ordered for victims of trauma: Jacobs IA, Kelly K, Valenziano C, et al. Am Surgeon 2000;66:579–583