China's forest carbon sinks and mitigation potential from carbon sequestration trading perspective

A study on the value accounting of forest carbon sink services can promote the rapid development of the carbon sink market and help better understand the impact of forest carbon sinks on climate change and economic development. However, few studies have evaluated the value of China's current forest carbon sink services. Based on research on carbon peak and carbon neutrality, according to the characteristics of China's forest ecosystems and forest resource inventory data, the stock volume method was used to measure the amount and value of forest carbon sinks in China in 2009-2013 and 2014-2018. The results showed that: (1) the physical amount of forest carbon aggregates in China increased from 2009 to 2013 and from 2014 to 2018. The carbon storage of natural and plantation forests both showed an upward trend. Among them, the growth rate of the carbon storage of plantation forests was higher than that of natural forests. (2) The state, adjoint, and coupling equations of forest carbon sinks were employed to ascertain the best price for China's forest carbon sinks in 2020. The results showed that the price of China's forest carbon sinks was slightly higher than the internationally accepted carbon sink price, reflecting that the changes in the value of China's forest carbon sinks and international carbon sinks were roughly the same. (3) We obtained an appropriate accounting model for China's forest carbon sinks. (4) The value of China's forest carbon sinks increased from 2009 to 2013 and from 2014 to 2018. Although the price of carbon sinks has declined, the overall forest resource stock has increased, especially in plantation forests. The increase in the value of carbon sinks was as high as 24.7%, resulting in an overall increase in the value of forest carbon sinks, which was also in line with the physical amount of forest carbon sinks. The measurement conclusions were consistent. Several key points to note based on these findings are as follows: (1) China's current forest carbon sink transactions are all project-level certified emission reduction transactions, and diversified non-market means should be constructed to comprehensively promote carbon sink transactions. (2) China's current carbon sink transactions are mainly clean development mechanism projects, with few transactions between enterprises, and the carbon trading market situation is not optimistic. (3) The key to effective forest carbon sequestration trading is the accurate accounting of forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration value. Thus, it is of great significance to establish a forest carbon sequestration measurement method that is economical, simple, and accurate. (4) The physical amount and value of carbon sequestration of China's forest resources are rising, and the contribution rate is increasing year by year. However, there is still a gap in per capita forest area and storage compared with those in other countries worldwide. Thus, China must be vigilant in times of peace and further strengthen the protection and construction of forest resources.

The role and transmission mechanism of forest resource abundance on low-carbon economic development in the Yangtze River Delta region: Insights from the COP26 targets

As climate change accelerates, forests play a pivotal role in global carbon dynamics by providing both carbon sequestration and ecosystem resilience. This review synthesizes two decades (2004-2024) of research on the interrelationships between forest carbon sequestration, carbon credit mechanisms, and the economic dimensions of sustainable forest management (SFM). Despite substantial progress, notable gaps persist in the economic valuation of forest carbon credits and their integration into SFM strategies. Drawing on systematic analysis of Web of Science data, it examines four core interconnected research themes: (i) global trends and international collaboration in forest carbon research, (ii) economic valuation of forest ecosystem services to mitigate deforestation and enhance sequestration, (iii) the influence of forest management practices, species diversity, and climate zones on soil organic carbon and its economic value, and (iv) the interplay between economic, ecological, and policy drivers shaping carbon credit markets. Findings reveal a 12.16% annual growth rate in publications, strong global collaboration (39.11% co-authorship), and priority research themes such as aboveground biomass, climate change, carbon storage, and carbon credits. Recent emphasis has shifted toward advanced tools (e.g., LiDAR), sustainable management approaches, and interdisciplinary strategies, reflecting a broader focus on climate resilience and policy integration. SFM practices, such as agroforestry, selective logging, and afforestation, emerge as effective for enhancing carbon stocks while generating economic returns. Persistent challenges include policy inconsistencies, insufficient community participation, and a lack of standardized methods for carbon measurement and valuation. Regional disparities in carbon values complicate international trading and climate agreements. Overall, the review offers practical insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners by connecting forest management, carbon sequestration, and economic incentives. Moreover, it underscores the need for long-term, socio-economically integrated studies, strengthened policy frameworks, and enhanced cooperation to align SFM with global sustainability objectives.

A suitable system for estimating changes in carbon storage and carbon emissions from tropical forests was constructed to study the carbon sink function of the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park. This article takes Diaoluo Mountain Forest Area as an example. Inventory calculation of forest resources with the help of the calculation method of the provincial greenhouse gas inventory compilation guide. Carbon sink measurement model is constructed in Diaoluo Mountain Forest Area. Changes in forest carbon storage and carbon emissions in five different periods from 1998 to 2018 were calculated. The results show that the forest carbon storage in Diaoluo Mountain Forest Area was 6.4 T, 1.1T, 1.2 T, 1.5 T and 2.1 Tons in the past five periods. Arbor forest has the largest proportion of carbon storage and is dominant; Carbon emissions in the five periods were 497T, 545 T, 263 T, 21T and 19 Tons. The moral is that,the total amount of forest net carbon has increased continuously, arbor forest is an important dominant position of carbon storage,the main gas absorbed and emitted by forest carbon sinks is carbon dioxide,the trend of increasing carbon storage and reducing carbon emissions is significant.It is suggested to continuously improve the community structure and promote the development of the forest carbon sink industry through the establishment of national parks and scientific management. Social capital participates in protecting national parks. This can increase the number of carbon sinks in public rainforest parks.

A distributed charging pricing strategy for highway microgrid considering carbon trading: A Stackelberg evolutionary joint game approach

Forests are essential in combating climate change by functioning as carbon sinks, sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide and storing it in biomass and soil. India, possessing various forest ecosystems, holds substantial potential for carbon sequestration. Climate change, marked by increasing temperatures, altered precipitation patterns and extreme weather phenomena, jeopardizes forest biomass and carbon sequestration. This systematic analysis evaluates the effects of climate change on forest biomass and carbon sequestration in several forest types in India. The study evaluates different methodologies for biomass estimation, including destructive, non-destructive and remote sensing approaches. It highlights the contributions of diverse forest types such as Himalayan forests, tropical rainforests, deciduous forests, mangroves and agroforestry systems in carbon sequestration. The findings indicate that while Indian forests act as vital carbon reservoirs, deforestation, land-use changes and climate-induced stressors have generally decreased the carbon sequestration potential of these forests by reducing biomass accumulation and increasing ecosystem stress, although variability exists across forest types. Sustainable forest management, afforestation and climate-resilient strategies are essential to enhance carbon storage. Integrating remote sensing technologies, ecological modeling and policy frameworks like REDD+ can aid in better monitoring and conservation efforts. This review provides insights into future strategies to strengthen India’s forest carbon sequestration capacity and mitigate climate change impacts.

Improving the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration is an effective way to accelerate the pace and reduce the cost of carbon neutrality in China. Therefore, it is particularly important to explore the technical efficiency, influencing factors, and optimization paths of forest vegetation carbon sequestration. This work uses a 21-year panel data set (2000–2020) of 87 state-owned forestry enterprises (SOFEs) in Northeast China and combines geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology. First, stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) was used to quantitatively analyze the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration in different SOFEs during different periods. Then, the individual fixed-effects model was used to examine the factors influencing technical efficiency under the control of climate factors. Finally, the panel threshold model was used to determine the impact of different management scales on the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration. The main results were as follows: technological progress can effectively reduce forestry investment and improve the technical efficiency of forest vegetation carbon sequestration production. There was technological progress in forest vegetation carbon sequestration production during the study period, but the rate of technological progress showed a decreasing trend. Forest management scale, total output value, employee wages, precipitation, and sun duration had a significant positive impact, whereas wood production had a significant negative impact on the technical efficiency of carbon sequestration. The impact of different management scales on the technical efficiency of carbon sequestration is highly heterogeneous. The study established an analytical framework for researching the technical efficiency and optimization of forest vegetation carbon sequestration, providing a theoretical and practical basis for forest management.

With climate change, frequent forest fires and prolonged fire period occur all over the world. Moreover, carbon emission from forest fire affects the carbon cycle of the forest ecosystem. However, this effect varies by region with no uniform conclusions, and fewer comparative studies exist on such differences between regions. In this paper, net primary productivity (NPP) data MOD17A3 were used as an important parameter of forest carbon absorption, along with MODIS fire spot data MCD14DL and burned area data MCD64A1. Forest carbon lost under forest fire interference in the northeast and southwest natural forest areas of China was studied to explore the role of forest fire in the carbon cycle process and its differences in the unlike regions of China. Here, by means of kernel density analysis and M-K trend test, the characteristics of forest fires in China’s southwest and northeast forests were calculated. Forest carbon emission under forest fire disturbance was quantified by reference to the forest fire emission factor list. We show that (1) the total number of forest fire spots in the southwest region from 2001 to 2020 was 1.06 × 105, 1.28 times that of Northeast China. However, the total burned area in the southwest was only 67.84% of that in the northeast. (2) The total carbon emissions from forest fires in the southwest from 2001 to 2020 was 37,559.94 Gg, 10.77% larger than the northeast forest, CH4 and CO2 were 13.52% and 11.29% larger respectively. Moreover, the carbon emissions of forest fire in the northeast showed a downward trend, R2 = 0.16 (p < 0.1), while it remained basically unchanged in the southwest. The contribution of carbon emissions from forest fires changed with forest types, it was shown as: evergreen needleleaf forest (14.98%) > evergreen broadleaf forest (10.81%) > deciduous needleleaf forest (6.52%) > deciduous broadleaf forest (5.22%). (3) From 2001 to 2020, under the premise that the NPP both manifested upward trends, the NPP of the burned areas showed a significant downward trend in the southwest forest, with R2 = 0.42 (p < 0.05), while it increased in the northeast forest, with R2 = 0.37 (p < 0.05). It showed negative correlation between NPP of burned areas and forest fire carbon emissions, and forest fire disturbance had no significant effect on forest NPP in Northeast China, while net carbon loss occurred in Southwest China. In general, under different forest fire characteristics, NPP, which represents forest carbon uptake, and carbon emissions from forest fires show differences. The impact of forest fire disturbance on forest carbon process varies with regions. The study can provide some ideas on the effects of forest fire disturbance on climate change.

Multi-objective optimisation model of a low-cost path to peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality in China

Sustainable forest management plays a crucial role in climate change mitigation and adaption, as well as the achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Recognizing the significance of sustainable forest management, China has implemented a range of the legislative measures and policies for the conservation and restoration of key forest ecosystems and has launched the Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program and other key forest programs, resulting in an increase in forest coverage and forest carbon sinks. In addition to forestry ecological restoration projects (FERPs) initiated by the administration and project developers, the Chinese courts have also actively engaged in exploring various strategies to enhance forest carbon sinks. In both criminal and civil cases, afforestation and reforestation activities, buying forest carbon credits, and participation in forest management and other restoration activities by offenders have been regarded as factors in determining legal responsibility. Moreover, the courts have also established forest restoration centers, either independently or in collaboration with local governments. These judicial innovations in China have provided positive incentives for the conservation, restoration, and sustainable management of forests, thereby significantly contributing to the achievement of the Climate Action Goals (SDG 13). However, these developments also raise several concerns, particularly the fair application of forest carbon sink mechanisms, the comparability in ecosystem service between damaged natural resources and compensatory measures, and the interconnection of the various SDGs. It is imperative to establish clear guidance on buying forest carbon credits, to develop standards and procedures to assess forest carbon sinks, and to strengthen cooperation between the judiciary and governmental agencies. Additionally, it is essential to integrate the forest carbon sink with broad economic development goals and social justice frameworks to ensure sustainable and inclusive outcomes.

Although forest biomass energy was long assumed to be carbon neutral, many studies show delays between forest biomass carbon emissions and sequestration, with biomass carbon causing climate change damage in the interim. While some models suggest that these primary biomass carbon effects may be mitigated by induced market effects, for example, from landowner decisions to increase afforestation due to higher biomass prices, the delayed carbon sequestration of biomass energy systems still creates considerable scientific debate (i.e., how to assess effects) and policy debate (i.e., how to act given these effects). Forests can be carbon sinks, but their carbon absorption capacity is finite. Filling the sink with fossil fuel carbon thus has a cost, and conversely, harvesting a forest for biomass energy – which depletes the carbon sink – creates potential benefits from carbon sequestration. These values of forest carbon sinks have not generally been considered. Using data from the 2010 Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences ‘Biomass sustainability and carbon policy study’ and a model of forest biomass carbon system dynamics, we investigate how discounting future carbon flows affects the comparison of biomass energy to fossil fuels in Massachusetts, USA. Drawing from established financial valuation metrics, we calculate internal rates of return (IRR) as explicit estimates of the temporal values of forest biomass carbon emissions. Comparing these IRR to typical private discount rates, we find forest biomass energy to be preferred to fossil fuel energy in some applications. We discuss possible rationales for zero and near‐zero social discount rates with respect to carbon emissions, showing that social discount rates depend in part on expectations about how climate change affects future economic growth. With near‐zero discount rates, forest biomass energy is preferred to fossil fuels in all applications studied. Higher IRR biomass energy uses (e.g., thermal applications) are preferred to lower IRR uses (e.g., electricity generation without heat recovery).

Enhancing forest carbon sequestration in China: Toward an integration of scientific and socio-economic perspectives

Despite the economic and environmental significance of the world’s forests, we have limited data about them. Estimates of deforestation in tropical countries and rates of reforestation or afforestation in boreal and temperate countries are inconsistent. Accordingly, estimates of emissions released in deforestation vary widely and range from 7% to 17% of all sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The lack of good data severely hampers efforts to shape climate policy because it is difficult to model the role of forests both in the physical global carbon (C) cycle and in cost-effective regimes to abate GHG. Data limits strain the capacity of even the best models to estimate marginal cost functions for forest carbon (C) sequestration. It is technically possible to obtain better information, but for institutional and economic reasons these technologies have not yet been fully deployed. The emergence of carbon (C) trading or tax policy in which forest carbon (C) storage becomes valued would strengthen incentives to supply better data, as would nonmarket regulation if it elicited a shadow value of forest carbon (C) in substituting for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. “Geo-wiki” may provide a short-term solution to at least part of the data problem. The ultimate solution is the development of a comprehensive forest monitoring system involving remote sensing and on-the-ground truthing. This paper briefly discusses the role of forests in climate policy and then describes data gaps, the capability of technology to fill them, the limits of institutions and budgets in realizing this capability, and possible near-term solutions.

Based on The Bamboo Forest Management Carbon Sequestration Project Methodology and improved project economic benefit evaluation model, this research conducted a quantitative evaluation of the economic benefits of CCER bamboo forest management carbon sequestration project and analyzed the sensitivity of the net present value under different scenarios. The results showed that the net present value of bamboo forest management carbon sequestration project was 195.675 2 million yuan in total, 6.522 5 million yuan per year and 137 200 yuan per hectare under the current market conditions, which was 42.05 per cent higher than that of the traditional bamboo forest management. Total carbon dioxide emission reduction was 249 658 t; the average annual emission reduction was 8 322 t; the amount of emission reduction per hectare was 175 t·hm-2. The net present value of the project emission reduction was 4.654 0 million yuan in total, 155 100 yuan per year and 3 300 yuan per hectare. The degree of sensitivity of the net present value of the project was bamboo price > discount rate > labor price > carbon price in the same rate of change scenarios. On the basis of the research findings, the relevant suggestions were put forward from three perspectives, namely, carbon price, farmer's income, and market environment, to carry out bamboo forest management carbon sequestration project better.

In order to better carry out the research of forest carbon sinks and serve the forest management, as well as to promote the economic development of carbon sinks, this paper has established the regression model of forest carbon sinks accounting, using forest stock conversion method, and has analyzed the characteristics of this model based on the collected data of forest stock, forest mortality and forest harvesting of year 1990 to 2007 in China, under the theory of economic cybernetics. The results show that the regression goodness of fit R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> =0.998 for forest biological carbon sinks C(k+1) and C(k) in the model, the adjusted R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> =0.997, the F-value is 6581.48, and its P-value of Sig. = 0.00, indicating that the model has statistical significance. Furthermore, this paper calculated the optimal price of forest carbon sinks in China as $10.11-15.17/tC, using the minimum value method of economic cybernetics based on the accounting model mentioned above. The paper also calculated the limit of forest harvesting as 426 million m <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">3</sup> per year to keep consumption of carbon reserves minimum in the economic development of China, a result demanding a better management of forest resources. Finally, the paper discussed on a number of problems in carbon sinks accounting, and suggested that the value of carbon sinks should use the shadow prices to estimate, i.e. to take into account all the impacts on carbon sinks accounting from the factors of social as well as economic development, in order to promote the sustainable development of carbon markets in China.