Climate Change and the Need for Future Research

Re-defining Sustainability: Living in Harmony with Life on Earth

Time to pay the piper: Fossil fuel companies’ reparations for climate damages

The recent publication of the summary for policy makers by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has injected a renewed sense of urgency to address climate change. It is therefore timely to review the notion of preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' as put forward in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The article by Danny Harvey in this issue [2] offers a fresh perspective by rephrasing the concept of 'dangerous interference' as a problem of risk assessment. As Harvey points out, identification of 'dangerous interference' does not require us to know with certainty that future climate change will be dangerous—an impossible task given that our knowledge about future climate change includes uncertainty. Rather, it requires the assertion that interference would lead to a significant probability of dangerous climate change beyond some risk tolerance, and therefore would pose an unacceptable risk.

Climate is defined by the Glossary of Meteorology as the mean of atmospheric variables over a period of time ranging from as short as a few months to multiple years and longer. Although the term climate is often used to refer to long-term weather statistics, the broader definition of climate is the time evolution of a system consisting of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. Physical, chemical, and biological processes are involved in interactions among the components of the climate system. Vegetation, soil moisture, and glaciers are part of the climate system in addition to the usually considered temperature and precipitation (Pielke, 2008). Climate change refers to any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or winds) sustained over several decades or longer. Climate change can be initiated by external forces, such as cyclical variations in the Earth's solar orbit that are thought to have caused glacial and interglacial periods within the last 2 million years (Milankovitch, 1941). However, a linear response to astronomical forcing does not explain many other observed glacial and interglacial cycles (Petit et al., 1999). It is now understood that climate is influenced by the interaction of solar radiation with atmospheric greenhouse gasses (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), aerosols (airborne particles), and Earth's surface. A significant aspect of climate are the interannual cycles, such as the El Nino La Nina cycle which profoundly affects the weather in North America but is outside the scope of weather forecasts. Some of the most significant advances in understanding climate change have evolved from the recognition of the influence of ocean circulations upon the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Human activity can affect the climate system through increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, air pollution, increasing concentrations of aerosol, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of CO{sub 2} may be rising faster than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects (AMS, 2007). Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have increased since the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. The increased levels of CO{sub 2} will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict specific aspects of human-induced climate change, such as exactly how and where changes will occur, and their magnitude. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) was established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations in 1988. The IPCC was tasked with assessing the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information needed to understand the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increased in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007).

Climate Change and Health: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Policy

Carbon Pricing: Design, Experiences and Issues, edited by LarryKreiser, MikaelAndersen, BirgitteOlsen, StefanSpeck, JanetMilne and HopeAshiabor. Published by Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2015, 256 pages. ISBN: 9781785360220, ₤75.

The impacts associated with unconventional natural gas development (UGD) via hydraulic fracturing have generated considerable controversy and introduced terms such as “fracking” into the public lexicon. From a climate change perspective, transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable sources in order to potentially avoid the worst consequences of a warming planet will need to also consider the climate implications of increased UGD and natural gas use that follows. Specifically, how much greenhouse gas is emitted as natural gas is extracted, transported, and consumed relative to other energy sources? Is UGD a “cleaner” energy source? Compared to what? Does it postpone or “bridge” the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy? Public perception of UGD’s climate impacts not only reflect individual attitudes but broader social discourse among stakeholder groups. Understanding these perceptions, their psychological and social factors antecedents, and how to engage audiences on this topic will play a key role in UGD’s long-term trajectory, especially as it relates to climate change. An added challenge is that most public opinion studies specific to UGD’s climate impacts (and indeed UGD in general) are limited to the United States, Canada, and a few countries in Europe and Africa, with other parts of the world entirely absent. Nonetheless, the studies that do exist highlight several common themes. In particular, UGD tends to be viewed as cleaner relative to fossil fuels because of the belief it produces less carbon emissions as a result of natural gas extraction and consumption. However, it tends to be viewed as dirtier relative to renewables amid the belief that it increases carbon emissions. This finding complements research showing that natural gas occupies a middle ground between renewables and other fossil fuels in terms of acceptance. Moreover, the extent UGD serves as a bridge energy source remains contentious, with some arguing that it and the natural gas it produces complement fossil fuels and facilitates a transition to renewables, while others claim that UGD entrenches society’s continued reliance on the former. Overall, despite the contentious nature of these issues, UGD’s climate impacts appear less salient across countries than other health, environmental, and economic impacts, perhaps because they are psychologically distant and difficult to experience directly. Amid efforts to convey the public health risks associated with a changing climate, we believe that emphasizing the public health dimensions of UGD’s climate impacts can potentially make them more psychologically tangible. Positively framed messages emphasize that reducing carbon emissions tied to both unconventional natural gas extraction and natural gas consumption (relative to other fossil fuels) and thus mitigating the resultant climate change that follows benefits public health. Conversely, negatively framed messages emphasize that increasing carbon emissions (relative to renewables) and thus amplifying the resultant climate change adversely affects public health. At present, though, there is little evidence as to how these messages affect the perceived connection between UGD’s climate impacts and public health and, in turn, support for UGD versus other energy types. Nor is it clear how these outcomes may vary across countries based on public sentiment toward UGD and climate change along with a variety of psychological and social factors that influence such sentiment. Data available for some countries offers tantalizing scenarios, but we remain limited due to the lack of social science research in countries outside the United States and a handful of others. We call for cross-national comparative studies that include places where UGD—and social science research on it—is still maturing.

Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use.The purpose of this focus issue is to capture the state of the art in quantifying greenhouse gases from agricultural systems, with the goal of better understanding our current capabilities and near-term potential for improvement, with particular attention to quantification issues relevant to smallholders in developing countries. This work is timely in light of international discussions and negotiations around how agriculture should be included in efforts to reduce and adapt to climate change impacts, and considering that significant climate financing to developing countries in post-2012 agreements may be linked to their increased ability to identify and report GHG emissions (Murphy et al 2010, CCAFS 2011, FAO 2011).

Climate Change and Human Health in China

Climate change and air pollution are critical challenges that humanity is currently facing. Understanding the sources of emissions released into the atmosphere is of great importance to evaluate the local footprint, the impacts of human activities, and the opportunities to develop and implement solutions to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate change particularly in vulnerable places like the Galapagos Islands. In this study, we present an anthropogenic emissions inventory for Santa Cruz, San Cristobal, and Isabela Islands in which emissions were spatially mapped for greenhouse gasses (GHGs) and primary pollutants (PP). Emissions were estimated for the energy stationary sources, energy mobile sources, waste, and other sectors, and emissions for 2019 were spatially distributed along with an uncertainty assessment. Results demonstrated that energy mobile sources which are aerial, terrestrial, and maritime transportation generated the most significant emissions in the Galapagos Islands in terms of PP and GHGs. In fact, maritime transportation was the highest one in 2019, at 41% of total CO2 emissions for Galapagos, with the most predominant PP being NOx and CO. The aerial transportation made up 36% of emissions, and the electricity generation contributed 15%. Emissions from waste and other sectors comprise a smaller percentage relative to the rest of the emission sectors. These results highlight the strong dependency of the islands on fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Alternatives to mitigate and reduce emissions from the islands are discussed. This spatially mapped emissions inventory for the Galapagos Islands represents a powerful tool to make informed decisions to contribute to the long-term sustainability of the archipelago.

Greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon dioxide and non-CO2 gases, are mainly generated by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and agriculture. These emissions disrupt the natural balance of the global ecosystem and contribute to climate change. However, by investing in renewable energy, we can help mitigate these problems by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting a more sustainable future. This research utilized a panel data model to explore the impact of carbon dioxide and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions on global investments in renewable energy. The study analyzed data from 63 countries over the period from 1990 to 2021. Firstly, the study established a relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and clean energy investments across all countries. The findings indicated that carbon dioxide had a positive effect on clean energy investments, while non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions had a negative impact on all three types of clean energy investments. However, the impact of flood damage as a representative of climate change on renewable energy investment was uncertain. Secondly, the study employed panel data with random effects to examine the relationship between countries with lower or higher average carbon dioxide emissions and their investments in solar, wind, and geothermal energy. The results revealed that non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions had a positive impact on investments only in wind power in less polluted countries. On the other hand, flood damage and carbon dioxide emissions were the primary deciding factors for investments in each type of clean energy in more polluted countries.

Climate change poses an existential threat to children's health. Divestment of ownership stakes in fossil fuel companies is one tool available to pediatricians to address climate change. Pediatricians are trusted messengers regarding children's health and therefore bear a unique responsibility to advocate for climate and health policies that affect children. Among the impacts of climate change on pediatric patients are allergic rhinitis and asthma; heat-related illnesses; premature birth; injuries from severe storms and fires; vector-borne diseases; and mental illnesses. Children are disproportionately affected as well by climate-related displacement of populations, drought, water shortages, and famine. The human-generated burning of fossil fuels emits greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide, which trap heat in the atmosphere and cause global warming. The US healthcare industry is responsible for 8.5% of the nation's entire greenhouse gases and toxic air pollutants. In this perspectives piece we review the principle of divestment as a strategy for improving childhood health. Healthcare professionals can help combat climate change by embracing divestment in their personal investment portfolios and by their universities, healthcare systems, and professional organizations. We encourage this collaborative organizational effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy

Climate and land-use change impacts on potential solar photovoltaic power generation in the Black Sea region

Walkability as an Indicator of Neighbourhood Resilience ( breakout presentation )