Climate change impact on peatland dynamics during the Holocene in Latvia, Northeastern Europe

Quantitatively projecting the impact of future climate change on the socio-economy and exploring its internal mechanism are of great practical significance to adapt to climate change and prevent climate risks. Based on the economy-climate (C-D-C) model, this paper introduces a yield impact of climate change (YICC) model that can quantitatively project the climate change impact. The model is based on the YICC as its core concept and uses the impact ratio of climate change (IRCC) indicator to assess the response of the economic system to climate change over a long period of time. The YICC is defined as the difference between the economic output under changing climate condition and that under assumed invariant climate condition. The IRCC not only reflects the sensitivity of economic output to climate change but also reveals the mechanism of the nonlinear interaction between climate change and non-climatic factors on the socio-economic system. Using the main grain-producing areas in China as a case study, we use the data of the ensemble average of 5 GCMs in CMIP6 to project the possible impact of climate change on grain production in the next 15–30 years under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the long-term climate change in the future will have a restraining effect on production in North region and enhance production in South region. From 2021 to 2035, climate change will reduce production by 0.60–2.09% in North region, and increase production by 1.80–9.01% in South region under three future scenarios. From 2021 to 2050, compared with the climate change impact in 2021–2035, the negative impact of climate change on production in North region will weaken, and the positive impact on production in South region will enhance with the increase in emission concentration. Among them, climate change will reduce grain output in North region by 0.52–1.99%, and increase output in South region by 1.35–9.56% under the three future scenarios. The combination of economic results and climate change research is expected to provide scientific support for further revealing the economic mechanism of climate change impacts.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production in Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) where the deleterious impacts of climate change are generally projected to be greatest. Design/methodology/approach The study used a production function model using Fixed Effect Regression (FER) analysis and then using marginal impact analysis to assess the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production. Therefore, the study utilized panel data for the period 1961-2009 pooled from 20 countries in MENA region. Findings Results showed that 1 per cent increase in temperature during winter resulted in 1.12 per cent decrease in agricultural production. It was also observed that 1 per cent increase in temperature variability during winter and spring resulted in 0.09 and 0.14 per cent decrease in agricultural production, respectively. Results also indicated that increasing precipitation during winter and fall season and precipitation variability during winter and summer seasons had negative impact. The estimated parameters of square temperature and precipitation indicated that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on agricultural production in MENA region. Originality/value Despite there are many studies on the impact of climate change on agricultural production, there is a lack of publications to address the economic impact of both climate change and variability on agricultural production in MENA region. Thus, these results are more comprehensive and more informative to policymakers than the results from field trials.

Introduction There is a substantial literature about the future impacts of climate change (Nordhaus 1991; Cline 1992b; Fankhauser 1995; Mendelsohn et al . 2000; Tol 2002a); see Tol (2009b) for an overview. Less is known, however, about the impacts of climate change in the past. While there is no immediate policy relevance of estimates of past effects – as liability is yet to be established (Tol and Verheyen 2004) – such estimates would serve to validate models of future impacts – and thus help to improve these models and build confidence. In this chapter, I turn this question on its head. I use a model to backcast past impacts, thus generating hypotheses to be tested against observations. Unfortunately, there are no direct observations of the economic impact of past climate change. Note that the cause of climate change, past or future, is irrelevant for its impacts. There are, however, some studies that estimate particular aspects of the impact of past climate change, typically focussing on biophysical impacts.

78.2 Impact of Climate Change on the Health and Well-Being of Indigenous Communities in Australia

The impact of climate change on the territory and population is only increasing every year. Extreme weather events are expected to be repetitive and difficult to predict. New research shows that the effects of global warming are felt in large cities, at least twice as strong as in rural areas. That is why taking the necessary precautionary measures becomes an urgent task. The key, according to researchers, is adaptation and prevention. The authors of the article, analyzing the prerequisites and consequences of climate change, propose a scheme of organizational and economic mechanisms to counteract climate change in complex urban environments. Long-term goals include reducing urban heat islands through urban planning and climate-friendly home design to create a conducive, non-air-conditioned environment. In order to maximize the effectiveness of such adaptation measures, active multidisciplinary collaboration is required with the involvement of professionals in many industries. The assessment of the impact of climate change on the environment and human health has identified a number of gaps in knowledge and problems in the implementation of appropriate health measures. The article substantiates the relevance of climate change research in Ukraine. In addition, the main results of the research on population safety in the global climate change are summarized. Factors of the impact of global climate change on the environment, man, society, economy and complex agglomerations are highlighted. The consequences of climate change of natural, economic and social nature are presented. Directions and measures to adapt natural and socio-economic systems to global climate change are substantiated. The classification of the mechanisms of counteraction and mitigation of the negative effects of global climate change is given.

Most discussions of impacts of Climate Change have focused on species from temperate or polar regions. Impacts to species inhabiting warm climates are often believed to be small relative to those of species living in cooler climates. However, it is evident that some tropical/sub-tropical species, including some marine megafauna may face potentially serious consequences from a changing climate. For example, larger, warmer oceans may appear to benefit marine wildlife species like cold-sensitive Florida manatees; however, findings regarding the impact of global climate change (GCC) on estuaries and nearshore areas of Florida indicate that predicted impacts of climate change may be detrimental to endangered manatees. An examination of how projected impacts of climate change will affect threats to manatees and their habitat indicates that threats may be exacerbated. The most significant threats to the Florida manatee population, such as cold-stress, watercraft collisions, and harmful algal blooms likely will increase. Habitat is likely to be degraded under future climate scenarios. Alterations to Florida’s marine environment are ongoing, yet current manatee management plans do not consider the impacts of climate change. The ability of manatees to adapt to change will be influenced by the speed of change and the degree to which human activity impedes or alters it. To minimize impacts to species we must recognize the influence GCC may have on populations, and begin to identify and implement ways to slow or reverse negative impacts arising from it.

The main objective of this study was to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on coastal resource governance, communities’ vulnerability and livelihoods security in the district. Specifically, the study aimed to assess the effects of rainfall and temperature variability and change on coastal resource distribution and management, to examine the vulnerabilities of socio-economic activities along the coastal areas to the impacts of climate variability and change and to establish the adaptive measures that the community and other stakeholders adapted to address the impacts of climate change and variability. The research was conducted in three purposively selected villages in Pangani District. A random sample of 60 respondents participated in the study. The study employed a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods. Findings from this study demonstrate that climate change has happened and is still happening in the study area. The notable impacts of climate change include decrease of rainfall and change of rainfall seasons and patterns, emergence of new crop diseases and pests, decrease of fish catch, intrusion of salinity in the rivers and inland and general decline of crop productivity. The findings reveal that the impacts of climate change have been increasing over time between 1980 and 2014.

Reviews on Impacts of Climate Change on Livestock Health and Production

The Heat is On: Imperative for Midwifery Engagement in Climate Change.

The goal was to analyze hydrological modeling as strategic tool to assess the impact of land use and climate change on hydrological resources in agricultural systems. The documentary research technique was applied, through the process of collecting and systematizing information. A bibliometric study was carried out to know the scientific production between 2013 and 2023 registered in SCOPUS. Bibliometric network maps were built and indicators were generated. Results showed that hydrological modeling has increased in the last decade both internationally and in Mexico. In the international context the following lines of research have been developed: i) surface runoff at the basin level (37%), ii) hydrological models for comprehensive water management (22%) and iii) impact of climate change on the hydrological balance (20%). In Mexico, they have mainly been developed on: i) vulnerability and risk to floods (25%); ii) surface runoff (18%) and iii) impact of climate change on the hydrological balance (17%). Our findings show that the use of the SWAT model stands out in most of the research topics worldwide and in Mexico. This is because it is the most robust model according to the review. There are evidence on the need to delve deeper into the impact of the hydrological balance in agricultural production systems and the effect they will have under climate change conditions.

Impact of Agricultural Activity and Climate Change on SpatioTemporal Evolution in Soil Salinization in Manas River Basin, China In this paper, our objectives were to: (1) explore the spatio-temporal evolution of soil salinization on a regional scale; (2) assess impact of application of modern agriculture; and (3) analyze the impact of climate change on soil salinization. Results from this research will further our knowledge of soil salinization processes and enhance regional environmental management...

Climate Change and Health: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Policy

The planning of river basin management should utilize a high-resolution, process-based hydrological model to tackle issues such as diffuse pollution, drought, flood forecasting, and the impact of climate change. The studies available to date only encompass five meso-scale and one large-scale river basins in Ukraine. The objective of this study is to calibrate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for all Ukrainian river basins, including upstream transboundary parts. The model could potentially assist in land management and assessing the impact of agriculture on water resources; hence, considerable attention is paid to agricultural practices and crop rotations. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a process-based semi-distributed hydrological model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) in collaboration with numerous institutions. SWAT is widely used for simulating the impact of land management practices on water resources, including water quantity and quality, as well as assessing the overall environmental impact of land use and climate changes. The watershed, encompassing transboundary areas, covers an area of 873,600 km2, with Ukraine accounting for 68.7% of it. The inputs for the model consist of topography, river network, merged national soil maps with the properties for each soil polygon and underlying horizons, land cover, and agricultural practices such as crop rotations, fertilization, and operation schedules. In calibrating the model, we arranged daily discharge data from 56 gauges, snow cover from 61 locations, and crop yields of primary crops. The modeling period spans 41 years from 1980 to 2020. The modeling results are evaluated based on three criteria: the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS), the coefficient of determination (R2), and the percent bias (PBIAS). The model is available via a user-friendly web platform that features an interactive map of Ukrainian subbasins. Users can inspect the model inputs for each subbasin and monitor the daily dynamics of key outputs: river discharge, water flow components, evapotranspiration, soil water, and snow cover. The results can be downloaded as an image or a CSV file for further research. The hydrological model of Ukraine has the potential to address a wide range of issues related to water and agriculture: water supply, flood forecasting, soil water availability, water quality, the impact of climate change, and so on. The model will be expanded in the future to include sediment and nutrient transport.

The M-K test and double accumulation curve method were applied to analyze the impact of human activities and climate change on the runoff changes in the study area. The results show a significantly decreasing runoff trend in the study area, with the calculation model of climate change impact and double accumulation curve models. We can get that the impact of human activities is 36.28 mms in the process of runoff change in the Luan River Basin. Its contribution rate is 62.59%, much larger than the impact of climate change, 37.41%. The effect of human activities is the main factor leading to the decrease of runoff in the Luan River Basin.

The purpose of this paper is to review and evaluate published literature on the impact of climate change on birds. A systematic method was utilized to access research works of literature on “Impact of Climate Change on Birds”. A total of sixty-seven (67) research papers published between the years 1962 to 2023 was accumulated and used for this review. A subjective approach was used to select the topics: impact of climate change and birds. In this paper, nine (9) threatening impacts of climate change on the bird populations were assessed and presented as well as three (3) detrimental impacts of climate change on birds inhabiting mangrove forests. Further, this paper assessed some birds that are threatened with extinction and it also provided a checklist of some migratory birds that are threatened due to the changing climate and that are found on the RED list of the IUCN. Approaches and strategies to enhance and address bird conservation to combat the effect of climate change was also presented in this review. The published works of literature established that the global bird population dynamics, ecology, breeding seasonality, abundance and distribution are all affected due to the threats of climate change. Climate change will affect birds indirectly in the future by modifying their habitats through sea level rise, changes in fire regimes, and changes in vegetation or land use. Birds are in particular vulnerable to environmental changes like climate change since they are subject to continuous changes that may be negatively connected. This review highlights the fact that more extensive studies on the impact of climate change on birds should be done in neotropical countries since there are gaps of such information on research and published data in these biodiversity rich regions.