Co-Creating Multi-Hazard Resilience Indicators for Historic Environments: A Context-Specific Assessment Framework

Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use.The purpose of this focus issue is to capture the state of the art in quantifying greenhouse gases from agricultural systems, with the goal of better understanding our current capabilities and near-term potential for improvement, with particular attention to quantification issues relevant to smallholders in developing countries. This work is timely in light of international discussions and negotiations around how agriculture should be included in efforts to reduce and adapt to climate change impacts, and considering that significant climate financing to developing countries in post-2012 agreements may be linked to their increased ability to identify and report GHG emissions (Murphy et al 2010, CCAFS 2011, FAO 2011).

Climate Change and Health: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Policy

On 17 September 2021, the Grantham Institute hosted a follow-up to the Royal Meteorological Society's virtual event on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th assessment report (AR6). The event focused on the response to the climate crisis and taking actions from AR6. Three sectors were covered, including 'School leaders and educators', led by Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) Learning Network & London Schools Climate Summit; 'Business and Industry - Environmental, social and corporate governance', chaired by Anita Punwani, Deputy Chair NED, Institute of Risk Management; and 'Geologists, earth scientists and energy experts', led by the European Federation of Geologists and Imperial College London researchers. Panel members were from British Standards Institution, 11 https://www.bsigroup.com/ Save the Children UK, 22 https://www.savethechildren.org.uk/ University College London 33 https://www.ucl.ac.uk/ and Resurgence. 44 https://www.resurgence.io/ Dr Alex Brown (STEM learning) and Malini Mehra (Globe International) chaired a session on the implications of AR6 for school leaders and educators. Participants agreed that we now have an opportunity for collaboration, as the UK Prime Minister recently appointed a new Education Secretary (Nadhim Zahawi) and Schools Minister (Robin Walker). With COP26 (Smith et al., 2021) at the time just five weeks away, it was emphasised that now is the time to put climate education on the agenda and embedded in the green recovery. There was a feeling that teachers are constrained by the curriculum and do not have the skills, capacity, or appropriate resources to apply climate issues to their own subjects. Recommendations were given to address this through exam bodies and quality assurance organisations, and to provide better training for teachers, so they are empowered to embed climate change into their lessons. A curriculum reform should also include green skills for students, to ensure the next generation is equipped to apply for green jobs in the future. Further discussion focussed on climate risk and adaptation. Few educational leaders recognise that the most harmful impacts of climate change to the educational sector are likely to be physical, such as flooding and extreme heat. It is important to find ways to communicate this effectively with school leaders, drawing on what has been learned from COVID-19. The session ended with discussion about the next steps, starting with a letter to the Education Secretary and Schools Minister regarding an enquiry into whether the current education system is fit for purpose in relation to the government's net zero commitments. Nuha Eltinay's (Middle East and North Africa representative) 55 https://www.resurgence.io/team/ key messages included the need to build bridges between existing communities and weather forecasters. The need to communicate weather information and climate change to grassroots were essential for progress. Specifically, what the IPCC meant to her organisation was centred around vulnerabilities in Middle East and Northern African regions. It was emphasised that compound and cascading hazards after natural events are often not reported and under-addressed, despite their ability to produce further catastrophic hazards that propagate through socio-economic systems (e.g. Alexander and Pescaroli, 2019). Kit Vaughan (Save the Children) mentioned the importance of dealing with the disruption arising from climate change. Kit also explained the interrelationship between other global issues including COVID-19 which led us to recognise global inequality. Kit raised the important point that children born in 2020 are subject to a seven-fold increase in climate events when compared with their grandparents born in the 1960s (Thiery et al., 2021). This is further exacerbated by the fact that one billion children are living in high-risk areas. This discussion raised important issues of climate change with regard to children. These stakeholders require a specific focus of support and integration at every level with effective communication. Gianluca Pesacaroli (University College London) expressed issues pertaining to operational silos whereby private companies operate independently from public bodies. This becomes problematic when addressing and meeting mutual climate mitigation targets. There is a need for the co-production of information between private and public entities, scientists and non-scientists, which can facilitate important discourses allowing for effective policy making. Lesley Wilson (British Standards Foundation, BSI) emphasised the need to have a common benchmark of sustainability that organisations should employ in their environmental agendas. The BSI works collaboratively across sectors to foster such common standards. Katrina Ramage (World Values Day) highlighted the need to communicate climate change to young children in layperson terms so that they can understand the issues facing them and how the government aims to support the future generation. Discourses in the realm of decision making, be that public or private, regarding the next generation, often do not directly involve young people. Moreover, the complexities of such discourses are rarely understood by children and more needs to be done to explain the ramifications of climate change to them. Examples of this include encouraging children to debate climate change in educational establishments and visiting schools to educate children and facilitating such discussions. Hannah Wood (UBS Foundation) identified that there is a funding gap between climate and environmental issues. There is growing concern that within corporate settings there is untapped capital which can be used to support financing the global environmental agenda (Clark et al., 2018). Funding is not disseminated appropriately with little communication between corporate and public entities. Therefore, there is a serious need to trigger funding for climate change initiatives and move capital to where it is more needed. Glen Burridge (European Federation of Geologists) led the breakout session 'Earth Sapience: How can Earth Scientists work together to address the climate crisis?'. Dr Yves Plancherel (Imperial College London) started by highlighting that much of the new IPCC reports are not novel, raising the debate of how the information in the IPCC should be delivered in the future. Cedric John (Imperial College London) and Dr Edward Gryspeerdt (Imperial College London) agreed with the sentiment but added that the IPCC reports do pave the way for more platforms to discuss the IPCC, beyond the short periods that it is popularised by the news media (Pearce et al., 2014; Sanford et al., 2019). Dr Isabelle Fernandez (European Federation of Geologists) continued this concept of communication, highlighting that involving people – both the general public and companies – is an important solution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Dr Edward Gryspeerdt followed this saying that geologists can develop such solutions at economic cost, with the key being to find a way where it is cheaper not to emit, but to leave the CO2 in the ground. Magnus Johansson (SGU) was the last panellist in the group and highlighted that there also needs to be resilience built into everyday life, as well as a push for mitigation measures. At present, Magnus Johansson said, there is a disconnect between those planning climate mitigation and resilience measures and those applying it on the ground. The session was then opened up for general input, where carbon capture and storage (CCS) was heavily discussed. Highlighted as a sustainable opportunity, CCS needs to be implemented as soon as possible to ensure CO2 is utilised, not wasted (Martin-Roberts et al., 2021). Yves highlights that, due to the cost of implementation, oil and gas companies might be in a unique position to spearhead the transition over to CCS by converting their assets (infrastructure, knowledge and workforce) over. The breakout room concluded on discussions around the importance of investigating other energy sources and alternate forms of carbon storage. Renewable and thermal energy are important clean energy options but must also be discussed alongside a candid conversation about their accompanying issues, such as raw material supply. Forest restoration is hugely valuable in tackling both the biosphere crisis, as well as providing a nature-based solution to the carbon issue (Seddon et al., 2020). The event was concluded with a large discussion of all three sectors and the key points that were brought up in the breakout rooms. Melina Mehra clarified that one overarching message that came through was the need to be clear with messages that are being communicated, ensuring those messages are accessible in terms of the capabilities of that person, group or industry. There needs to be clarity on questions such as: What is being asked to be done? How is the success of it measured? Katrina Ramage highlighted how societal tolerance of climate injustice has reduced and that works in favour of better communication, but it does not lessen the complexity of the issue being communicated. COVID-19, as a potentially climate-induced zoonotic 66 An infectious disease which has spread from animals to humans. pandemic, and the rise in extreme weather events, has made it clear that the impacts of climate change are happening now. Glen Burridge summarised that clear communication of complex issues alongside de-biased and practically analysed decisions will allow these issues to be addressed effectively, in the present rather than in the future.

The sixth major <scp>IPCC</scp> assessment report and its implications: 15 September 2021

In urban settings, public spaces are vital for improving quality of life and deserve scholarly and professional attention. Identifying key pedestrian commercial streets is essential for sustainable urban planning in Malaysian cities. In Malaysia, the disregard for townscape quality has contributed to the erosion of character and identity in many cities. To tackle these issues, it is essential to analyse pedestrian zone patterns, identify obstacles to sustainable townscape development, and establish policies that encourage pedestrian-friendly designs. This study explores the predominant types of pedestrian commercial streets in Malaysia's historical and non-historical areas, focusing on their unique characteristics and challenges. This exploration helps in understanding the specific needs and potential improvements required for these zones to enhance a sustainable urban environment. This study explores Malaysia's pedestrian zones to understand their unique characteristics and challenges. The qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method is employed in this research. Five (5) diverse sites: Sungai Segget Johor Bahru, Melaka Jonker Street, Bukit Bintang Kuala Lumpur, Ipoh Street Art, and Penang Street Art are conducted. This study identifies and compares different types of pedestrian zones in Malaysia’s historical and non-historical areas. Historical areas like Melaka, Ipoh and Penang are predominantly represented in semi-mall spaces concept, balancing heritage preservation with modern urban functionality. In contrast, non-historical areas like Bukit Bintang in Kuala Lumpur can implement more flexible and modern urban design. Full mall spaces like Sungai Segget prioritise pedestrian safety and cultural activities, while transit mall spaces like Bukit Bintang in Kuala Lumpur integrate transit routes with pedestrian walkways, promoting sustainable mobility and economic vitality. The study provides valuable insights into the design and functionality of pedestrian zones in different urban contexts, contributing to a deeper understanding of urban design practices, especially in historical and non-historical contexts. The findings can inform the policymakers to emphasize the balance between historical and non-historical areas. This study suggests further exploring innovative urban design strategies that can be applied to both historical and non-historical areas to enhance pedestrian experiences.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is broadly viewed as the world’s most legitimate scientific assessment body that periodically assesses the economics of climate change (among many other topics) for policy audiences. However, growing procedural inefficiencies and limitations to substantive coverage have made the IPCC an increasingly unattractive forum for the most qualified climate economists. Drawing on our observations and personal experience working on the most recent IPCC report, published last year, we propose four reforms to the IPCC’s process that we believe will lower the cost for volunteering as an IPCC author: improving interactions between governments and academics, making IPCC operations more efficient, clarifying and strengthening conflict of interest rules, and expanding outreach. We also propose three reforms to the IPCC’s substantive coverage to clarify the IPCC’s role and to make participation as an author more intellectually rewarding: complementing the IPCC with other initiatives, improving the integration of economics with other disciplines, and providing complete data for policymakers to make decisions. Despite the distinct characteristics of the IPCC that create challenges for authors unlike those in any other review body, we continue to believe in the importance of the IPCC for providing the most visible line of public communication between the scholarly community and policymakers.

This perspective critically assesses how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could facilitate a closer alignment of its activities and include lessons drawn from the policy and decision-making communities working on the ground at the regional/local levels. The objective is to facilitate practitioner input into the detailed choice of topics and priorities for IPCC review and in the conclusions drawn (we define practitioners as those engaged in the development and application of practical responses to climate change on the ground). By means of a series of workshops with academics, policy officials and decision-makers in the United Kingdom, the research reported here illuminates how the IPCC’s Working Group II (WGII) has been used in the past to inform decision-making and how practitioner responses to climate change could better inform the IPCC process in the future. In particular, we recommend three key actions. Firstly that IPCC WGII should incorporate more practitioners as authors to improve the awareness and understanding amongst the writing teams of the nature and detail of decisions being made in response to climate change; secondly a practitioner-led IPCC Special Report should be commissioned on good-practice responses to climate change; and thirdly a new body should be created, attached to the IPCC, to synthesise and report on good practice on climate response strategies in a timely manner. By adopting these recommendations, the IPCC could become more directly useful to decision-makers working on adaptation at the national, regional and local levels and enable more actionable decision-making.

This chapter describes how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) performs its self-proclaimed role of 'mapmaker' (IPCC 2014) for climate policy. We show how mitigation pathways, as assessed by the IPCC, anticipate the corridor for international cooperation on climate change. Specifically, we focus on the use of Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) as the predominant scientific approach to project mitigation pathways that are consistent with politically agreed temperature targets. Bringing together research in science and technology studies, sociologies of the future, and political science, we show how the IPCC, in its role as mapmaker, also acts as a corridor-maker that defines the corridor for political cooperation on climate change. The IPCC's core tool for assessing mitigation pathways, IAMs, provide a mode of climate anticipation historically centered on techno-economic assumptions. Based on IAMs, the IPCC narrows down the range of climate futures that are deemed to be technically feasible and cost efficient. In doing so, the IPCC's techno-economic framing of climate change and mitigation privileges techno-scientific solutions such as carbon dioxide removal over cultural, political, and systemic change.

The United Nations <i>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i> (IPCC) agrees human CO<SUB>2</SUB> is only 5 percent and natural CO<SUB>2</SUB> is 95 percent of the CO<SUB>2</SUB> inflow into the atmosphere. The ratio of human to natural CO<SUB>2</SUB> in the atmosphere must equal the ratio of the inflows. Yet IPCC claims human CO<SUB>2</SUB> has caused all the rise in atmospheric CO<SUB>2</SUB> above 280 ppm, which is now 130 ppm or 32 percent of today's atmospheric CO<SUB>2</SUB>. To cause the human 5 percent to become 32 percent in the atmosphere, the IPCC model treats human and natural CO<SUB>2</SUB> differently, which is impossible because the molecules are identical. IPCC's Bern model artificially traps human CO<SUB>2</SUB> in the atmosphere while it lets natural CO<SUB>2</SUB> flow freely out of the atmosphere. By contrast, a simple Physics Model treats all CO<SUB>2</SUB> molecules the same, as it should, and shows how CO<SUB>2</SUB> flows through the atmosphere and produces a balance level where outflow equals inflow. Thereafter, if inflow is constant, level remains constant. The Physics Model has only one hypothesis, that outflow is proportional to level. The Physics Model exactly replicates the 14C data from 1970 to 2014 with only two physical parameters: balance level and e-time. The 14C data trace how CO<SUB>2</SUB> flows out of the atmosphere. The Physics Model shows the 14 CO<SUB>2</SUB> e-time is a constant 16.5 years. Other data show e-time for 12CO<SUB>2</SUB> is about 4 to 5 years. IPCC claims human CO<SUB>2</SUB> reduces ocean buffer capacity. But that would increase e-time. The constant e-time proves IPCC's claim is false. IPCC argues that the human-caused reduction of 14C and 13C in the atmosphere prove human CO<SUB>2</SUB> causes all the increase in atmospheric CO<SUB>2</SUB>. However, numbers show these isotope data support the Physics Model and reject the IPCC model. The Physics Model shows how inflows of human and natural CO<SUB>2</SUB> into the atmosphere set balance levels proportional to their inflows. Each balance level remains constant if its inflow remains constant. Continued constant CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions do not add more CO<SUB>2</SUB> to the atmosphere. No CO<SUB>2</SUB> accumulates in the atmosphere. Present human CO<SUB>2</SUB> inflow produces a balance level of about 18 ppm. Present natural CO<SUB>2</SUB> inflow produces a balance level of about 392 ppm. Human CO<SUB>2</SUB> is insignificant to the increase of CO<SUB>2</SUB> in the atmosphere. Increased natural CO<SUB>2</SUB> inflow has increased the level of CO<SUB>2</SUB> in the atmosphere.

The Stern Review on the Economic Effects of Climate Change

Stories from the IPCC: An essay on climate science in fourteen questions

Using a revised Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology and the process-based model DeNitrification and DeComposition (DNDC), we estimated N2O emissions from agroecosystems in Canada for each census year from 1981 to 2001. Based on the IPCC methodology, direct emissions of N2O ranged from 12.9 to 17.3 with an average of 15.1 Tg CO2 equivalents, while the DNDC model predicted values from 16.0 to 24.3 with an average of 20.8 Tg CO2 equivalents over the same period, and showed a large interannual variation reflecting weather variability. On a provincial basis, emissions estimated by IPCC and DNDC methods were highest in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario, intermediate for Manitoba and Quebec and lowest in British Columbia and the Atlantic provinces. The greatest source of emissions estimated by the IPCC method was from N fertilizer (avg. 6.32 Tg CO2 equiv. in Canada), followed by crop residues (4.24), pasture range and paddocks (PRP) (2.77), and manure (1.65). All sources of emissions, but especially those from fertilizers, increased moderately over time. Monte Carlo Simulation was used to determine the uncertainty associated with the 2001 emission estimates for both IPCC and DNDC methodologies. The simulation generated most likely values of 19.2 and 16.0 Tg CO2 equivalents for IPCC and DNDC, respectively, with uncertainties of 37 and 41%, respectively. Values for the IPCC estimates varied between 28% for PRP and manure and 50% for N fertilizer and crop residues. At the provincial level, uncertainty ranged between 15 and 47% with higher values on the prairies. Sensitivity analyses for IPCC estimates showed crop residues as the most important source of uncertainty followed by synthetic N-fertilizers. Our analysis demonstrated that N2O emissions can be effectively estimated by both the DNDC and IPCC methods and that their uncertainties can be effectively estimated by Monte Carlo Simulation. Key words: Nitrous oxide, IPCC, DNDC model, Uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation

Expertise in the form of climate change science plays an indispensable role in governmental decision-making regarding the reduction of greenhouse gases. In order to make the (peer-reviewed) climate science accessible for policy-making, an important task is given to the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, reports from the IPCC—together with other scientific documents—may also be used in the courtroom. This contribution explores what role IPCC reports have played thus far in seminal court decisions in the US and Europe. Furthermore, it observes that while the IPCC will stay important for decision-making in the context of the Paris Agreement, the IPCC and its decision-making procedures have not remained uncontested in legal (and other) literature. In tandem with the important role taken or given to the IPCC, fundamental legal questions regarding the production of climate science by the IPCC have to be examined, for which the concept of “global administrative law” may be useful since it examines the legitimacy and accountability of international decision-making. If courts are indeed willing to follow statements from the IPCC or from peer reviewed articles in such a way that this amounts to standard-setting, like a specific emission pathway, the rule-making power of the executive and legislative branch will clearly become less important and may be overturned. While this can be an enormous victory for climate protection, the implied shift of power still needs to be objectively identified and discussed, particularly also in view of helping to avoid unjustified contestation of climate science.

Rapid industrialization and urbanization in the 20th century have led to increasing volumes of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere[...]

Climate is defined by the Glossary of Meteorology as the mean of atmospheric variables over a period of time ranging from as short as a few months to multiple years and longer. Although the term climate is often used to refer to long-term weather statistics, the broader definition of climate is the time evolution of a system consisting of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. Physical, chemical, and biological processes are involved in interactions among the components of the climate system. Vegetation, soil moisture, and glaciers are part of the climate system in addition to the usually considered temperature and precipitation (Pielke, 2008). Climate change refers to any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or winds) sustained over several decades or longer. Climate change can be initiated by external forces, such as cyclical variations in the Earth's solar orbit that are thought to have caused glacial and interglacial periods within the last 2 million years (Milankovitch, 1941). However, a linear response to astronomical forcing does not explain many other observed glacial and interglacial cycles (Petit et al., 1999). It is now understood that climate is influenced by the interaction of solar radiation with atmospheric greenhouse gasses (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), aerosols (airborne particles), and Earth's surface. A significant aspect of climate are the interannual cycles, such as the El Nino La Nina cycle which profoundly affects the weather in North America but is outside the scope of weather forecasts. Some of the most significant advances in understanding climate change have evolved from the recognition of the influence of ocean circulations upon the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Human activity can affect the climate system through increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, air pollution, increasing concentrations of aerosol, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of CO{sub 2} may be rising faster than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects (AMS, 2007). Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have increased since the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. The increased levels of CO{sub 2} will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict specific aspects of human-induced climate change, such as exactly how and where changes will occur, and their magnitude. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) was established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations in 1988. The IPCC was tasked with assessing the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information needed to understand the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increased in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007).