Comment on essd-2021-422

Potential influence of temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere on the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon during the last glacial period

Abstract. Large volcanic eruptions occurring in the last glacial period can be detected by their accompanying sulfuric acid deposition in continuous ice cores. Here we employ continuous sulfate and sulfur records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, the frequency and the climatic forcing of large volcanic eruptions that occurred during the second half of the last glacial period and the early Holocene, 60–9 kyr before 2000 CE (b2k). Over most of the investigated interval the ice cores are synchronized, making it possible to distinguish large eruptions with a global sulfate distribution from eruptions detectable in one hemisphere only. Due to limited data resolution and large variability in the sulfate background signal, particularly in the Greenland glacial climate, we only list Greenland sulfate depositions larger than 20 kg km−2 and Antarctic sulfate depositions larger than 10 kg km−2. With those restrictions, we identify 1113 volcanic eruptions in Greenland and 737 eruptions in Antarctica within the 51 kyr period – for which the sulfate deposition of 85 eruptions is found at both poles (bipolar eruptions). Based on the ratio of Greenland and Antarctic sulfate deposition, we estimate the latitudinal band of the bipolar eruptions and assess their approximate climatic forcing based on established methods. A total of 25 of the identified bipolar eruptions are larger than any volcanic eruption occurring in the last 2500 years, and 69 eruptions are estimated to have larger sulfur emission strengths than the Tambora, Indonesia, eruption (1815 CE). Throughout the investigated period, the frequency of volcanic eruptions is rather constant and comparable to that of recent times. During the deglacial period (16–9 ka b2k), however, there is a notable increase in the frequency of volcanic events recorded in Greenland and an obvious increase in the fraction of very large eruptions. For Antarctica, the deglacial period cannot be distinguished from other periods. This confirms the suggestion that the isostatic unloading of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets may be related to the enhanced NH volcanic activity. Our ice-core-based volcanic sulfate records provide the atmospheric sulfate burden and estimates of climate forcing for further research on climate impact and understanding the mechanism of the Earth system.

Extratropical eruptions have been associated with major cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 2000 years (Toohey et al., 2019; Burke et al., 2023).  However, our ability to reconstruct the stratospheric aerosol loading from these events is limited by uncertainties in the conversion of sulfate flux to the polar ice sheets into a stratospheric sulfur loading or aerosol optical depth. Current methods (e.g. Gao et al. 2007; Toohey and Sigl, 2017) assume that all of the ice core sulfate from these eruptions is deposited via the stratospheric overworld, but sulfur isotope evidence shows that a substantial proportion of ice core sulfate comes via lower altitudes. Here we evaluate the magnitude of this complication across many of the major extratropical eruptions over the last several thousand years, including eruptions from the Katmai/Novarupta, Aniakchak, and Okmok volcanoes, and investigate the implications of these findings for stratospheric aerosol forcing records currently used in climate models.  Burke, A., Innes, H.M., Crick, L., Anchukaitis, K.J., Byrne, M.P., Hutchison, W., McConnell, J.R., Moore, K.A., Rae, J.W., Sigl, M. and Wilson, R., 2023. High sensitivity of summer temperatures to stratospheric sulfur loading from volcanoes in the Northern Hemisphere. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(47), p.e2221810120.Gao, C., Oman, L., Robock, A. and Stenchikov, G.L., 2007. Atmospheric volcanic loading derived from bipolar ice cores: Accounting for the spatial distribution of volcanic deposition. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 112(D9).Toohey, M. and Sigl, M., 2017. Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE. Earth System Science Data, 9(2), pp.809-831.Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., Sigl, M., Stoffel, M. and Wilson, R., 2019. Disproportionately strong climate forcing from extratropical explosive volcanic eruptions. Nature Geoscience, 12(2), pp.100-107.

Temporal variations of the aerosol optical depth of the Antarctic troposphere and stratosphere are considered on the basis of long‐term Sun photometer and actinometer measurements which have been made at Mirny and Georg Forster stations since 1956 and 1988, respectively. This data is supplemented by measurements of the stratospheric aerosol optical depth by the satellite‐borne stratospheric aerosol measurement II instrument. These observations indicate that under undisturbed conditions, the stratospheric aerosol optical depth represents approximately 25% of the total atmospheric aerosol optical depth. The aerosol optical depth in the Antarctic is most notably affected by volcanic eruptions, such as El Chichon in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo and Cerro Hudson in 1991, and by the occurrence of polar stratospheric clouds during Antarctic winter and spring. Apart from these episodic events, no long‐term trend in the aerosol optical depth can be discerned from the nearly 40‐year record.

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions are a key source of climatic variability, and reconstructing their past impact can improve our understanding of the operation of the climate system and increase the accuracy of future climate projections. Two annually resolved and independently dated palaeoarchives – tree rings and polar ice cores – can be used in tandem to assess the timing, strength and climatic impact of volcanic eruptions over the past ∼ 2500 years. The quantification of post-volcanic climate responses, however, has at times been hampered by differences between simulated and observed temperature responses that raised questions regarding the robustness of the chronologies of both archives. While many chronological mismatches have been resolved, the precise timing and climatic impact of two major sulfate-emitting volcanic eruptions during the 1450s CE, including the largest atmospheric sulfate-loading event in the last 700 years, have not been constrained. Here we explore this issue through a combination of tephrochronological evidence and high-resolution ice-core chemistry measurements from a Greenland ice core, the TUNU2013 record. We identify tephra from the historically dated 1477 CE eruption of the Icelandic Veiðivötn–Bárðarbunga volcanic system in direct association with a notable sulfate peak in TUNU2013 attributed to this event, confirming that this peak can be used as a reliable and precise time marker. Using seasonal cycles in several chemical elements and 1477 CE as a fixed chronological point shows that ages of 1453 CE and 1458 CE can be attributed, with high precision, to the start of two other notable sulfate peaks. This confirms the accuracy of a recent Greenland ice-core chronology over the middle to late 15th century and corroborates the findings of recent volcanic reconstructions from Greenland and Antarctica. Overall, this implies that large-scale Northern Hemisphere climatic cooling affecting tree-ring growth in 1453 CE was caused by a Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruption in 1452 or early 1453 CE, and then a Southern Hemisphere eruption, previously assumed to have triggered the cooling, occurred later in 1457 or 1458 CE. The direct attribution of the 1477 CE sulfate peak to the eruption of Veiðivötn, one of the most explosive from Iceland in the last 1200 years, also provides the opportunity to assess the eruption's climatic impact. A tree-ring-based reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures shows a cooling in the aftermath of the eruption of −0.35 ∘C relative to a 1961–1990 CE reference period and −0.1 ∘C relative to the 30-year period around the event, as well as a relatively weak and spatially incoherent climatic response in comparison to the less explosive but longer-lasting Icelandic Eldgjá 939 CE and Laki 1783 CE eruptions. In addition, the Veiðivötn 1477 CE eruption occurred around the inception of the Little Ice Age and could be used as a chronostratigraphic marker to constrain the phasing and spatial variability of climate changes over this transition if it can be traced in more regional palaeoclimatic archives.

Large volcanic eruptions are key time markers in paleoclimatology because they inject large quantities of volcanic fallout (such as sulfuric acids and tephra) into the atmosphere which is then widely distributed and deposited in environmental archives such as ice cores, lakes and peat bogs. They also produce strong climate effects, imprinted in climate archives such as tree-rings. The caldera-forming eruption of Mount Mazama (Crater Lake, Oregon, USA) some 7700 years ago ranks among the largest eruptions of the Holocene but little is known about its exact timing and global-scale climate impacts. Here we use new high-resolution ice-core analyses of volatiles (S, Cl), particle-size distribution, crypto-tephra and sulfur isotopes (33S, 34S), from ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica, to constrain the date, stratospheric sulfur injection, global aerosol distribution and climate forcing of this eruption. We further demonstrate that the climatic effects left distinctive fingerprints in ultra-long tree-ring chronologies from North America and Europe allowing the date of this eruption to be pinned to a specific year, thereby aligning climate proxy records in North America, Greenland and Europe on a common timeline. Using an ensemble of fully-coupled Earth System Model simulations we identify some key regions experiencing large anomalies in temperature and hydro-climate following the Mt. Mazama eruption. These extreme conditions were not only relevant for hunter-gatherer communities and early agricultural societies emerging in Eurasia, that experienced these compounding effects, but they also help us in identifying a global existential risk arising from comparable eruptions in the future.

Volcanic eruptions are an important natural cause of climate change on many timescales. A new capability to predict the climatic response to a large tropical eruption for the succeeding 2 years will prove valuable to society. In addition, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on climate, including effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone‐depleting chemicals, it is crucial to quantify the natural fluctuations so as to separate them from anthropogenic fluctuations in the climate record. Studying the responses of climate to volcanic eruptions also helps us to better understand important radiative and dynamical processes that respond in the climate system to both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Furthermore, modeling the effects of volcanic eruptions helps us to improve climate models that are needed to study anthropogenic effects. Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with ane‐folding residence time of about 1 year. Large ash particles fall out much quicker. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. By scattering some solar radiation back to space, the aerosols cool the surface, but by absorbing both solar and terrestrial radiation, the aerosol layer heats the stratosphere. For a tropical eruption this heating is larger in the tropics than in the high latitudes, producing an enhanced pole‐to‐equator temperature gradient, especially in winter. In the Northern Hemisphere winter this enhanced gradient produces a stronger polar vortex, and this stronger jet stream produces a characteristic stationary wave pattern of tropospheric circulation, resulting in winter warming of Northern Hemisphere continents. This indirect advective effect on temperature is stronger than the radiative cooling effect that dominates at lower latitudes and in the summer. The volcanic aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemical reactions that destroy stratospheric ozone, which lowers ultraviolet absorption and reduces the radiative heating in the lower stratosphere, but the net effect is still heating. Because this chemical effect depends on the presence of anthropogenic chlorine, it has only become important in recent decades. For a few days after an eruption the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of surface air temperature is reduced under the cloud. On a much longer timescale, volcanic effects played a large role in interdecadal climate change of the Little Ice Age. There is no perfect index of past volcanism, but more ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica will improve the record. There is no evidence that volcanic eruptions produce El Niño events, but the climatic effects of El Niño and volcanic eruptions must be separated to understand the climatic response to each.

Abstract. Inter-hemispheric transport may strongly affect the trace gas composition of the atmosphere, especially in relation to anthropogenic emissions, which originate mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. This study investigates the transport from the boundary surface layer of the northern hemispheric (NH) extratropics (30–90∘ N), southern hemispheric (SH) extratropics (30–90∘ S), and tropics (30∘ S–30∘ N) into the global upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) using simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). In particular, we diagnose inter-hemispheric transport in terms of the air mass fractions (AMFs), age spectra, and the mean age of air (AoA) calculated for these three source regions. We find that the AMFs from the NH extratropics to the UTLS are about 5 times larger than the corresponding contributions from the SH extratropics and almost 20 times smaller than those from the tropics. The amplitude of the AMF seasonal variability originating from the NH extratropics is comparable to that from the tropics. The NH and SH extratropical age spectra show much stronger seasonality compared to the seasonality of the tropical age spectra. The transit time of NH-extratropical-origin air to the SH extratropics is longer than vice versa. The asymmetry of the inter-hemispheric transport is mainly driven by the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). We confirm the important role of ASM and westerly ducts in the inter-hemispheric transport from the NH extratropics to the SH. Furthermore, we find that it is an interplay between the ASM and westerly ducts which triggers such cross-Equator transport from boreal summer to fall in the UTLS between 350 and 370 K.

BackgroundUnderstanding global seasonal patterns of Kawasaki disease (KD) may provide insight into the etiology of this vasculitis that is now the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries worldwide.MethodsData from 1970-2012 from 25 countries distributed over the globe were analyzed for seasonality. The number of KD cases from each location was normalized to minimize the influence of greater numbers from certain locations. The presence of seasonal variation of KD at the individual locations was evaluated using three different tests: time series modeling, spectral analysis, and a Monte Carlo technique.ResultsA defined seasonal structure emerged demonstrating broad coherence in fluctuations in KD cases across the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical latitudes. In the extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, KD case numbers were highest in January through March and approximately 40% higher than in the months of lowest case numbers from August through October. Datasets were much sparser in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics and statistical significance of the seasonality tests was weak, but suggested a maximum in May through June, with approximately 30% higher number of cases than in the least active months of February, March and October. The seasonal pattern in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics was consistent across the first and second halves of the sample period.ConclusionUsing the first global KD time series, analysis of sites located in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics revealed statistically significant and consistent seasonal fluctuations in KD case numbers with high numbers in winter and low numbers in late summer and fall. Neither the tropics nor the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics registered a statistically significant aggregate seasonal cycle. These data suggest a seasonal exposure to a KD agent that operates over large geographic regions and is concentrated during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics.

Volcanic climate forcing preceding the inception of the Younger Dryas: Implications for tracing the Laacher See eruption

Chemical profiles from Greenland ice cores show that the frequency of volcanism was higher during the last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT) and early Holocene, (17–9 ka b2k) than in any other period during the last 110 kyr. This increased frequency has partly been linked to climate-driven melting of the Icelandic ice sheet during the last deglaciation, with regional isostatic changes thought to alter mantle viscosity and lead to more eruptions. Our study is the first to construct a comprehensive tephrochronological framework from Greenland ice cores over the LGIT to aid in the reconstruction of volcanic activity over this period. The framework is based on extensive high-resolution sampling of three Greenland ice cores between 17.4 and 11.6 ka b2k and comprises a total of 64 cryptotephra deposits from the NGRIP, GRIP and NEEM ice cores. We show that many of these tephras are preserved within the core without an associated chemical signature in the ice, which implies that reconstructions of volcanism based solely on glacio-chemical indicators might underestimate the number of events. Single glass shards from each deposit were geochemically characterised to trace the volcanic source and many of these deposits could be correlated between cores. We show that the 64 deposits represent tephra deposits from 42 separate volcanic events, and of these, 39 are from Iceland, two from the north Pacific region (Japan and USA) and one has an unknown source. Six deposits can be correlated to terrestrial and/or marine tephra deposits in the Northern Hemisphere and the remaining 36 are unreported in other archives. We did not locate tephra from the compositionally distinctive Laacher See eruption (∼13 ka b2k) in our records. Combining our new discoveries with the previously published tephra framework, raises the number of individual tephra horizons found in Greenland ice over this interval to 50. This significantly improves the regional tephrochronological framework, our knowledge of the eruptive history of Iceland during the LGIT and provides new tephra constraints over key LGIT climate events. Consequentially, this framework can guide sampling strategies of future tephra studies in the terrestrial and marine realms aiming to link these records to the Greenland ice cores to assess regional climate synchroneity.

Based on the nighttime ionosphere ion density data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites in 1996–2016, we statistically analyzed the longitudinal variation of the mid‐latitude trough position in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The results show significant difference in the longitudinal variation of the trough position between the Northern and Southern hemispheres. In the Northern hemisphere, the trough position in the two longitudinal sectors of 60°W and 120°E is always located at higher latitudes than that in the other longitudinal sectors under most of time and solar and geomagnetic conditions. The longitudinal variation of trough position in the Northern hemisphere is mainly affected by season, solar activity level, and geomagnetic activity level. In the Southern hemisphere, the trough position in the western hemisphere is located at lower latitude than that in the eastern hemisphere in winter and at low solar activity level in equinox. At medium and high solar activity levels in equinox, the southern trough structure in the western hemisphere can't be identified, which also occurs in summer. The change in geomagnetic activity would cause the same movement of trough position in the Southern hemisphere in all longitude sectors at low solar activity level. Thus, the longitudinal variation of trough position in the Southern hemisphere is mainly affected by season and solar activity level. The longitudinal variation of the trough position may be associated with the longitudinal variation of the ion density at the equatorward/poleward side of the trough in the Northern and Southern hemispheres.

The very successful application of a CFA (Continuous flow analysis) system in the GRIP project (Greenland Ice Core Project) for high-resolution ammonium, calcium, hydrogen peroxide, and formaldehyde measurements along a deep ice core led to further development of this analysis technique. We included methods for continuous analysis of sodium, nitrate, sulfate, and electrolytical conductivity, while the existing methods have been improved. The melting device has been optimized to allow the simultaneous analysis of eight components. Furthermore, a new melter was developed for analyzing firn cores. The system has been used in the frame of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) for in-situ analysis of several firn cores from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, and for the new ice core drilled at Dome C, Antarctica.

In this paper, we explore whether the activity of SARS-CoV-2 was associated with seasonality. MF-DFA model is utilized to calculate multifractal strength and multifractal complexity to evaluate the change state of SARS-CoV-2 activity. We select 10 countries with serious epidemic in the world, which are distributed in different latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres. The study utilized the time series data of daily new cases and daily new deaths recorded in these countries. We regard May to October as the “high temperature season” for countries in the northern hemisphere, November to April as the “low temperature season”, and the southern hemisphere is just the opposite. By comparing the multifractal intensity [Formula: see text] and multifractal complexity [Formula: see text] of the two time series in the two seasons, we draw a conclusion that, for both the sequence of the daily newly diagnosed persons and the daily newly increased number of deaths, in the countries of both the northern and southern hemispheres, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are weaker in the “low temperature season”. That is, in the low temperature environment, SARS-CoV-2 can survive for a long time and be more infectious. In addition, we also observe that in the northern hemisphere, Iran is at a lower latitude, and although the SARS-CoV-2 activity in the low temperature season is higher than that in the high temperature season, the difference is not significant. Therefore, the lower latitude may resist this phenomenon. However, most of the countries in the southern hemisphere are within 30° of south latitude, with low latitude, and other meteorological characteristics such as humidity in the countries in the southern hemisphere are also relatively unique. Although SARS-CoV-2 is characterized by high activity in low temperature seasons, no direct evidence related to the characteristics of latitude distribution has been found.

Fe2+ in ice cores as a new potential proxy to detect past volcanic eruptions