- Peer Review Report
- 10.5194/hess-2022-122-ac2
Reply on RC2
- Jul 21, 2022
- Raphael Schneider
<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> There is an urgent demand for assessments of climate change impact on the hydrological cycle at high spatial<br />resolution. In particular, the impacts on shallow groundwater levels, which can lead to both flooding and drought, have<br />major implications for agriculture, adaptation and urban planning. Predicting such hydrological impacts is typically<br />performed using physically-based hydrological models. However, such models are computationally expensive, especially at<br />high spatial resolutions. This study is based on the Danish national groundwater model, setup as a distributed, integrated surface-subsurface model at<br />500 m horizontal resolution. Recently, a version at a higher resolution of 100 m was created; amongst others, to better<br />represent the uppermost groundwater table and to meet end user demands for water management and climate adaptation. The<br />increase in resolution of the hydrological model, however, also increases computational bottleneck. To evaluate climate<br />change impact, a large ensemble of climate models was run with the 500 m hydrological model, while performing the same<br />ensemble run with the 100 m resolution nation-wide model was deemed infeasible. The desired outputs at 100 m resolution<br />were produced by developing a novel, hybrid downscaling method based on machine learning. Hydrological models for five subcatchments, covering around 9 % of Denmark and selected to represent a range of<br />hydrogeological settings, were run at 100 m resolution with forcings from a reduced ensemble of climate models. Random<br />Forest algorithms were established using the simulated climate change impacts (future – present) on water table depth at 100<br />m resolution from those submodels as training data. The trained downscaling algorithms then were applied to create nation-wide maps of climate change-induced impacts on the<br />shallow groundwater table at 100 m resolution. These downscaled maps were successfully validated against results from a<br />validation submodel at 100 m resolution excluded from training the algorithms, and compared to the impact signals from the<br />500 m hydrological model across Denmark. The suggested downscaling algorithm also opens for the spatial downscaling of other model outputs. It has the potential for<br />further applications where, for example, computational limitations inhibit running distributed hydrological models at fine<br />resolutions.
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