Comparative Conclusions

Climate change and population aging: The role of older adults in climate change mitigation

The Big Question

Recent evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is responsible for a large share of heat-related mortality and morbidity globally. Over long time scales, these impacts are modified by demographic and socioeconomic trends, such as population ageing and increasing life expectancy. To better evaluate the societal burden of climate change over time, attribution of impacts beyond mortality counts and risks is needed, including metrics that capture both the quality and length of life.In this study, we quantify the loss of lifetime attributable to climate change resulting from deaths related to heat and cold. We combine life tables with individual-level mortality data from Mexico, Spain, and Switzerland. We apply state-of-the-art health-impact attribution methods to estimate the association between temperature and years of life lost based on the age at death of each individual. We stratify our analysis by sex and age groups, and aggregate our results to the state level. We obtain observed exposure temperature data from ERA5Land and derive yearly and country-specific counterfactual temperatures by linearly regressing local warming from reanalysis and simulated datasets on attributable global mean surface temperature change.We show that climate change-attributable heat-related loss of lifetime has increased globally in recent decades. This burden is consistently shifting towards younger individuals. At least 50% is shouldered by individuals who lost more than 20 years of their expected lifetime (i.e., younger than approximately 67 years old in 2024) in Switzerland and Mexico, while in Spain, this share reached 77% already. This increasing heat-related burden is leading to more frequent net losses of lifetime in younger individuals in recent years, accounting for both heat and cold-related deaths. Nevertheless, the attributable net effects of climate change on the entire population are generally negative, driven by a larger reduction in cold exposure in the older population. For older individuals, the net effect shows a decreasing trend with ongoing climate change, which leads to an extension of lifetimes. Only extreme years, like 2003 in Spain and Switzerland, show a net shortening of lifetime across the entire population.These findings suggest increasing pressure from climate change on heat-vulnerable individuals, reducing their expected lifetime disproportionately. Importantly, this is not exclusive to individuals close to their life expectancy, as individuals with more than 20 years yet to live are the main contributors to attributable years of life lost. These younger individuals are already experiencing climate change as a pressure on their life expectancy across the whole temperature range. In the future, exposure to more frequent and extreme heat could lead to a net loss in lifetime in the overall population, therefore decreasing life expectancy. Our results provide a more nuanced view of which group carries the disproportional burden of climate change health impacts.

It is predicted that climate change will result in rising sea levels, more frequent and extreme weather events, hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. This will have a significant impact on the design of buildings, how they are kept cool and how they are weathered against more extreme climatic conditions. The residential sector is already a significant environmental burden with high associated operational energy. Climate change, and a growing population requiring residence, has the potential to exacerbate this problem seriously. New paradigms for residential building design are required to enable low-carbon dioxide operation to mitigate climate change. They must also face the reality of inevitable climate change and adopt climate change adaptation strategies to cope with future scenarios. However, any climate adaptation strategy for dwellings must also be cognisant of adapting occupant needs, influenced by ageing populations and new technologies. This paper presents concepts and priorities for changing how society designs residential buildings by designing for adaptation. A case study home is analysed in the context of its stated aims of low energy and adaptability. A post-occupancy evaluation of the house is presented, and future-proofing strategies are evaluated using climate projection data for future climate change scenarios.

Endurance: Australian stories of drought, by Deb Anderson, Clayton VIC, CSIRO Publishing, 2014, 256 pp., $45 (Paperback), ISBN 978-1486301201Following the Millenium drought that left most of the Australian continent under extreme water use restrictions, and farmers unable to meet food supply needs, Deb Anderson provides an excellent oral history of how this drought affected those in one of Australia's hardest hit regions, the Mallee. Drawing upon interviews over a number of years and informed by historical records, including photos from the Museum of Victoria's archives, Anderson invites participants to tell their stories in historical and current contexts. Sampling individuals and families from diverse industries, including farming, service provision and government, her in-depth research shows links among myth, policy, environmental realities, community and social discourse to explore questions of ontological security, identity and the legitimacy of historical narratives.Laid out in six chapters, the first three chapters conceptualise the myths, history and humanity of drought (chapter 1), the complexity of defining drought (chapter 2) and the methodological bases of her expert linking of historical and contemporary sources (chapter 3). From chapter 4 onwards, readers encounter exploration of the lived experience of drought interspersed with analysis of discourses and myths in contemporary lived experience. In chapter 4, Anderson unpacks the attitude of do, chapter 5 examines the notion of uncertainty and chapter 6 explores the idea of adaptation to climate change. Underpinning these concepts is exploration of institutional and structural impacts of drought on the marginalised and disadvantaged in the Mallee, leading readers through historical, symbolic and interpersonal discourses of drought in Australia. Anderson's book interrogates links among people, drought, places and symbols to provide a scholarly, heart-warming, and heartbreaking account of life in the Mallee.Clearly written and easily read, there is great depth to this work. Much of Anderson's analysis draws on sociological research of gender, institutional and structural solutions to community and social problems. The analysis shows the face of inadequate government support during the drought and recovery, making a meaningful contribution to what we know about drought and raising questions about neoliberal policy and its relationship to community sustainability. Links between climate change and mental health, family stability and the future of rural life for new generations, how new definitions of drought affect those living and working in areas prone to water scarcity and climate change affect young and ageing populations in rural Australia are all explored. Additionally, the role of volunteers, non-profit and government service providers and community infrastructure in climate crises are discussed. Ultimately, questions revolve around how historical myth and discourse affect lived experience of drought and how people make sense of reoccurring drought in their lives, as well as the security (ontological, economic, community and symbolic) of lifestyles and identities.Anderson's main contribution lies in the increasing trend in sociological and anthropological research to include the human voice (or lived experience) in climate change by exploring cultural discourse and definitions of drought, a surprisingly complex task. Globally, climate change and social sustainability, in particular social inequality, have been linked (Beck, 2010a). Others, however, have suggested drought in Australia conveys how governments and communities respond to climate variability, as Bureau of Meteorology (http://www. bom.gov.au/climate/drought/livedrought.shtml) reports detail. Thus, the contribution Anderson makes is conceptualising drought through climate change's institutional management, showing how discursive operations of drought's definition have a real impact on the lived experience of those in drought affected communities. …

The late 20th century brought the dawn of global population aging, the culmination of decades-long shifts to lower fertility and longer life expectancy. These novel age distributions—larger proportions of older persons relative to working-age or youth—bring with them a plethora of questions about the political, economic, and social causes and consequences of such aging. There are multiple theoretical perspectives and ways to measure population aging, and decisions about approaches, definitions, and measurements can make a dramatic difference on the results of studies of its impact. Some scholars approach the study of aging through a generational lens, others through chronological age, dependency ratios, or other measures of age structure. Studies of the implications of population aging fall into three major categories: political, economic, and social. Political demography studies often focus on the political power of various age groups and attempt to assess the degree to which intergenerational conflict is emerging as the sizes of age groups change and their demands on services like entitlements shift alongside. Political demography studies also look at voter behavior and preferences to assess possibilities for reform of age-related policies, like retirement, healthcare, and education. A separate branch of political demography examines the military implications of population aging, particularly its effect on the willingness and ability of a state to use force. Of the few studies that show a link between aging and war, empirical results are inconclusive, meaning that it is just as likely a state with a high median age will be belligerent as not. Studies on the economic implications of population aging look at the changing nature of the labor market itself and on the possibility of macroeconomic growth in the face of demographic change. Finally, research on the social impact of population aging is mostly concerned with individual- and family-level well-being, as the care demands of an aging population create pressures on individuals, families, and social safety nets. There are many controversies and debates over the impact of aging, including debates over the relative weight of demographic factors and whether population aging is a trend warranting celebration or alarm. In all, there are far more questions about the implications of aging than there are answers, and the projected development of this trend means that more questions constantly arise. Lingering questions surround historically rapid demographic aging, new sets of aging states at different speeds, shrinking populations, the intersection between migration and aging, and the intersection between aging and climate change. The field is ripe for more comparative aging work in general.

What explains the choice of corporate political strategy in environmental politics? Drawing on recent models of actor strategy formation in political economy, this article argues that basic material interests of firms are translated into strategies in the context of institutional environments. I advance a typological model that posits how distributional effects—positive versus negative—and perceived regulatory pressure—low versus high—interact in leading firms to adopt one of four ideal-type strategies: opposition, hedging, support, and non-participation. This article examines the model through the case of corporate strategies in the making of the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme. The article contributes to theory-building on business strategy in environmental politics by offering a probabilistic explanatory model, and it flags hedging strategies as an increasingly prevalent form of business behavior.

There is benefit, risk and cost in all that we do, but when it comes to food, we expect that it will benefit our health, be available, safe to eat and affordable. But as climate change and demographic shifts through displacement and ageing gather momentum, the emphases on each of benefit, risk and cost will alter. That we are ecological beings whose health and wellbeing are ecosystem-dependent, must now be the underpinning framework for risk management. Loss of natural environment and biodiversity represents reduced nutritional and health resilience, which will need to be factored in to risk assessment and management with climate change. This is proving a problematic risk communication challenge. Previously desirable food and food pattern recommendations will be tempered by substantial sustainability, availability, safety, affordability, equity and ethical considerations. Future workforces will need to ensure basic livelihoods (food, water, shelter, clothing, healthcare, education, communication, essential transport, resource management and effective governance) and with risk minimisation. Cost appraisal will have less to do with monetisation and more to do with resource management in accordance with equity and ethical principles. Communities could adopt Liveability Units (LU) for traceability and community-based transactions, as a currency for a more sustainable future, encouraging and enabling food and health system viability. Open source food and health systems, supported by LU matrix (bar code or QR) scanning with smartphones could be widely available for individual, household and community benefit, risk and cost management. The risk is remoteness from food's origins and megadata commercialisation.

Ageing and urbanisation pose significant challenges for public health and urban planning. Ageing populations are at particular risk from hazards arising from urbanisation processes, some of which are in turn exacerbated by climate change. One approach for mitigating the negative effects of urbanisation on ageing populations is the leveraging of the beneficial effects of urban green infrastructure as a public health intervention in the planning process. We assessed the potential of available theoretical frameworks to provide the context for such leverage. This involved active engagement with academics and practitioners specialising in ageing, green infrastructure and health and well-being through a knowledge-brokering approach. We concluded that an integrated and comprehensive framework on the socio-cultural-ecological determinants of health is lacking. To address this, we present a set of principles for overcoming challenges to knowledge integration when working at the intersection of green infrastructure, ageing, health and well-being. Our findings—and the co-production process used to generate them—have wider significance for trans-disciplinary research into the benefits of the natural environment to human health and well-being as well as other complex and interconnected topics associated with global grand challenges.

Firms' (non)responses: The role of ambivalence in the case of population aging in Japan

Background: Extreme heat can trigger or exacerbate cardiovascular disease (CVD) through ischemia or thrombosis, and its deleterious impacts are inclined to worsen as increased heat exposure and heightened vulnerability from climate change interacted with natural and social environment. Research Questions: Previous studies have primarily focused on quantifying the increased risk of CVD due to heat exposure, while lacking a comprehensive understanding of the association, underlying mechanisms, and vulnerability in CVD patients. Consequently, there is a scarcity of clinical and public health interventions aimed at preventing the convergence of extreme heat exposure and the risk of CVD within the context of climate change. Methods: We conducted a systematic search in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science from inception to December, 2023, and we retrieved articles which assessed the effects of extreme heat or climate change on CVD. Results: In this review, we outline the existing evidence on the epidemiology and pathophysiological mechanisms that elucidate how extreme heat affects the risk of CVD. Extreme heat is associated with increased risks for CVD morbidity and mortality, where older persons, low socioeconomic status, pre-existing medical conditions, and unfavorable living environments confer greater susceptibility to heat. The adverse effects of extreme heat on cardiovascular system involved a wide range of complex mechanisms between different organs and regulatory pathways (Figure 1). Additionally, we identify the factors that contribute to the vulnerability of CVD patients to heat exposure. The discrepancy in heat-related risk can be attributed to individual susceptibility, sociocultural factors, population temperature adaptations, and environmental factors. Future climate change is projected to exacerbate the burden of extreme heat, particularly due to the interaction of air pollution, population aging, and urbanization (Figure 2). Conclusions: Addressing extreme heat should be within the framework of the prevention of CVD. Health professionals and scientists are responsible for mitigating the cardiovascular effects mediated by extreme heat, with an emphasis on engaging in risk management tactics and health research to implement preventive strategies. As CVD is a climate sensitive disease, evidence-based interventions during heat extremes are urgently needed to cope with the cardiovascular risks associated with the inevitable trajectory of climate change.

The generation of knowledge and its relation with the development of public policies has recently become a matter of concern. This paper explores the interaction, in the public’s perception, between scientific knowledge and policies on climate change and water resources, a critical issue when making decisions based on scientific evidence. The study, which employed a qualitative paradigm, generated an interview guide which was administered to a sample of 26 subjects (13 researchers and 13 politicians). The analysis considered four dimensions: evidence, relevance, relationships and “supply and demand”. The political sector highlights a lack of information for drawing up policies. Researchers point out that they do not know the best strategies to transfer their results to the political world. In the relevance dimension, both groups (politicians and researchers) agree on the characteristics that define this knowledge and note that funding plays a significant role as one of the main elements hindering the science-policy interface. The relationships dimension stresses the need to generate fluid communication channels between the two sectors. In short, the process of science-policy interactions has important flaws due to several factors: the political system, the funding platform, the duration of projects, the length of political administrations, and centralism in connection with regional development. In summary, findings revealed that the interaction between science and policy on climate change issues is weak. Its of utmost importance the development of systematic dialogue opportunities associated with institutional commitments and the inclusion of stakeholders while prioritizing specific areas of the science-policy interface on the climate change issue.

Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.

The European Union (EU) represents a complex legal and political system that has developed through various stages of integration. In this context, the acquis communautaire constitutes a coherent set of principles, directives, and regulations that candidate countries must adopt and implement during the accession process. Chapter 27, which pertains to environmental protection and climate change, is one of the most challenging areas in the negotiations. This chapter encompasses technically complex aspects that require significant long-term investments in infrastructure and institutional capacities, with environmental issues having a direct impact on public health, economic development, and policy in rural and urban areas. The Republic of Serbia, as a candidate country, commenced the formal EU accession process in 2014, after gaining candidate status in 2012. In previous years, Serbia has made significant progress in legislative and institutional arrangements. Meeting the requirements of Chapter 27 entails not only the transposition of directives but also effective implementation, revision of investment plans, and mobilization of financial resources, including funding from the EU and international donors. The aim of this paper is to provide a systematic and critical analysis of the situation in Serbia regarding the fulfillment of Chapter 27 conditions. The paper identifies the main challenges and proposes concrete measures that could accelerate the implementation process and improve effectiveness in environmental protection and climate policies. The conclusion indicates that Chapter 27 represents a crucial test point in Serbia's accession to the European Union. The analysis has shown that the Republic of Serbia has achieved significant progress in legal harmonization, including the adoption of key laws and strategies, alongside the development of national plans and the initiation of infrastructure projects. An integrated approach combining project-oriented financing, legal and operational consistency, monitoring, and the integration of climate goals is essential for meeting the requirements of Chapter 27. This involves adopting a timeline with specific goals and responsibilities, with a short-term focus on preparing and financing priority regional projects, a medium-term focus on implementing key infrastructure interventions, and a long-term focus on achieving integrated resource management. Fulfilling Chapter 27 should not only be viewed as a condition for EU membership but also as an opportunity for transforming national environmental governance. The Government of the Republic of Serbia and the Ministry of Environmental Protection remain firmly committed to aligning with European Union standards in the areas of environmental protection and climate change. This commitment is reflected in ongoing efforts to ensure the necessary legislative solutions, institutional frameworks, and coordination mechanisms that will enable consistent implementation of Chapter 27, as well as activities aimed at attracting and managing international funds for financing priority projects.

This paper will explore the concept of resilience from its roots in ecology to the application of this ecological concept of resilience to social and community resilience in the context of climate change. In this context, resilience is seen as a property of complex adaptive communities rather than of individuals. This paper will explore how this ecological concept of resilience has been taken up both by climate adaptation research and by the Transition Town movement. This ecological concept of resilience is at odds with the individualism of both psychological and economic approaches to resilience in relation to climate change.