Comparative performance of AI methods for wind power forecast in Portugal

In this study, wind power forecasting is performed for a Wind Power Plant (WPP) with an installed capacity of 135 MW in Turkey. The ruggedness index (RIX) of the terrain where WPP was installed is analyzed with Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP). According to the obtained RIX value, the terrain of WPP is found to be complex. Due to the complexity of the terrain, wind power forecasting becomes difficult. To deal with this problem, a forecasting method with fast, accurate, and high performance is needed. Therefore, Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) based method is proposed for wind power forecasting in this study. Electrical and meteorological measurements are obtained from WPP for the application of the proposed method. These measurements are provided with high quality measuring devices. Also, Global Positioning System (GPS) time synchronization is used to prevent lags between measurements. The wind speed, wind direction, and wind power data of 1-year period are obtained from WPP. These data are used to compare the proposed method with a classical Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method in terms of two, three and four hours-ahead wind power forecast performances. In the forecast studies performed for all data related to 2, 3, and 4-hours ahead, Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) values of ELM are obtained as 7.01, 10.12, and 12.06, respectively, while these values are found as 8.19, 12.18, and 13.09 for ANN. In addition, the values of Correlation Coefficients (R) of the proposed forecast method results regarding 2, 3, and 4-hours ahead are 0.96588, 0.93528, and 0.88984, respectively. The R values related to ANN are observed as 0.95421, 0.91373, and 0.87576, respectively. According to the obtained results, it is observed that ELM has better performance features than classic method under all forecast conditions and it is clearly seen that ELM has by far short training time than other one.

A new multistage short-term wind power forecast model using decomposition and artificial intelligence methods

This paper presents Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for reduction of torque and flux ripples in transient and steady state response of Direct Torque Control (DTC) for Induction Motor drive. The Flux and Electromagnetic torque can be controlled by using efficient Direct Torque Control (DTC) scheme This proposed technique is to improve the torque, speed and flux response with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and then with the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference (ANFIS). This paper shows implementation of DTC system using ANN and ANFIS on three phase induction motor to optimize the flux and to improve the performance of fast stator flux response in transient state. To improve the performance of DTC with the modern technique using ANN and ANFIS approach is implemented and performance of ANN DTC compared with CDTC and ANN DTC with ANFIS is done, conclusion is about the ANN approach shows the better performance than CDTC and ANFIS shows superior performance than ANN. The performance has been tested by using MATLAB/SIMULINK and NEURAL NETWORK toolbox.

BackgroundLand leveling is one of the most important steps in soil preparation and cultivation. Although land leveling with machines require considerable amount of energy, it delivers a suitable surface slope with minimal deterioration of the soil and damage to plants and other organisms in the soil. Notwithstanding, researchers during recent years have tried to reduce fossil fuel consumption and its deleterious side effects. The aim of this work was to determine best linear model using artificial neural network (ANN), imperialist competitive algorithm and ANN and regression and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in order to predict the environmental indicators for land leveling.MethodsNew techniques such as; ANN, imperialist competitive algorithm and ANN and sensitivity analysis and regression and ANFIS that will lead to a noticeable improvement in the environment. In this research effects of various soil properties such as embankment volume, soil compressibility factor, specific gravity, moisture content, slope, sand percent, and soil swelling index in energy consumption were investigated. The study was consisted of 90 samples were collected from 3 different regions. The grid size was set 20 m in 20 m (20 × 20) from a farmland in Karaj province of Iran.ResultsAccording to the results of sensitivity analysis, only three parameters; density, soil compressibility factor and, embankment volume index had significant effect on fuel consumption. In comparison with ANN, all ICA-ANN models had higher accuracy in prediction according to their higher R2 value and lower RMSE value. Statistical factors of RMSE and R2 illustrate the superiority of ICA-ANN over other methods by values about 0.02 and 0.99, respectively.ConclusionResults extracted and statistical analysis was performed and RMSE as well as coefficient of determination, R2, of the models were determined as a criterion to compare selected models. According to the results, 10–8–3-1, 10–8–2-5-1, 10–5–8-10-1, and 10–6–4-1 MLP network structures were chosen as the best arrangements and were trained using Levenberg-Marquet as NTF. Integrating ANN and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA-ANN) had better performance in prediction of output parameters in comparison with conventional methods such.

Prophesying egg production based on energy consumption using multi-layered adaptive neural fuzzy inference system approach

The uncertainty of wind power as the main obstacle of its integration into the power grid can be addressed by an accurate and efficient wind power forecast. Among the various wind power forecasting methods, machine learning (ML) algorithms, are recognized as a powerful wind power forecasting tool, however, their performance is highly dependent on the proper tuning of their hyperparameters. Common hyperparameter tuning methods such as grid search or random search are time-consuming, computationally expensive, and unreliable for complex models such as deep learning neural networks. Therefore, there is an urgent need for automatic methods to discover optimal hyperparameters for higher accuracy and efficiency of prediction models. In this study, a novel investigation is contributed to the field of wind power forecasting by a comprehensive comparison of three advanced techniques – Scikit-opt, Optuna, and Hyperopt – for hyperparameter optimization of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) models, a facet that, to our knowledge, has not been systematically explored in existing literature. The impact of these optimization techniques on the accuracy and efficiency of the CNN and LSTM models are assessed by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE) of the predictions and the required time to tune the models. The results show that the Optuna algorithm, using a Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) search method and Expected Improvement (EI) acquisition function, has the best efficiency for both CNN and LSTM models. In terms of accuracy, it is demonstrated that while for the CNN model all the optimization methods achieve similar performances, the LSTM model optimized by the Hyperopt algorithm, based on the annealing search method, results in the highest accuracy. In addition, for the first time in this research, the impact of the random initialization features on the performance of the forecasting models with neural networks is investigated. The proposed structures for deep learning models were examined to determine the most robust structure with the minimal sensitivity to the randomness. What we have discovered from the comparison of advanced hyperparameter optimization methods can be used by researchers to tune the time series-based forecasting models.

This study investigated the accurate prediction of the calorific value of municipal solid waste (MSW) using soft computing systems, namely artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), support vector machine (SVM), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP). Calorific value of MSW is a crucial factor that exhibits the energy content of MSW, however, determining calorific value from conventional laboratory methods is quite expensive and difficult. The research focused on proximate analysis parameters obtained from the laboratory and utilized the measured calorific value to develop predictive models. All the models demonstrated a very good correlation between input and output, with consistently strong values of the coefficient of determination (R2). ANN SVM, MLP, and ANFIS models have respective R2 values of 0.9397, 0.8195, 0.7212, and 0.9979. ANFIS showed the best correlation with exceptional predictive power. Statistical parameters were determined to compare model accuracy, with ANFIS exhibiting the top performance, followed by ANN, and then MLP, which had the lowest values of mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) at 8.704E-07, 0.00019, 0.00016, and 1.295E-05 respectively. However, SVM has the least capability to predict calorific values accurately compared to other models. Soft computing Models, particularly ANFIS, demonstrated remarkable accuracy in predicting the calorific value.

The wind power sector is experiencing rapid growth, which creates new challenges for its electricity grid integration. Accurate wind power forecasting (WPF) is crucial for trading, balancing, and dispatching wind energy. In this paper, we examine the use of aggregated turbine- and farm-level WPFs in the Nordic energy market. The turbine-level WPFs were retrieved from a previous study, while the farm-level WPFs were developed using the same methodology, incorporating inputs from three different numerical weather predictions (NWPs) and implementing both direct and indirect forecasting approaches. In the indirect WPF approach, we explore the impact of using wind direction as an input for the wind farm-level power performance model. The different WPFs are combined into one using weights related to up-to-date forecast errors. An automated and optimized machine-learning pipeline using data from a Norwegian wind farm is used to implement the proposed forecasting methods. The indirect approach, that uses the wind-downscaling model, improves the wind speed forecast accuracy compared to raw forecasts from the relevant NWPs. Additionally, we observed that the farm-level downscaling model exhibited lower error than those developed at the turbine level. The combined use of multiple NWP sources reduced forecasting errors by 8 %–30 % for direct and indirect WPFs, respectively. Direct and indirect forecasting methods present similar performance. Finally, the aggregated turbine-level improved WPF accuracy by 10 % and 15 % for RMSE and MAE, respectively, compared to farm-level WPF.

The inverse kinematics of manipulator comprises the computation required to find the joint angles for a given Cartesian position and orientation of the end effector. There is no unique solution for the inverse kinematics thus necessitating application of appropriate predictive models from the soft computing domain. Artificial neural network and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system techniques can be gainfully used to yield the desired results. This paper proposes structured artificial neural network (ANN) model and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to find the inverse kinematics solution of robot manipulator. The ANN model used is a multi-layered perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN). Wherein, gradient descent type of learning rules is applied. An attempt has been made to find the best ANFIS configuration for the problem. It is found that ANFIS gives better result and minimum error as compared to ANN.

The flame retardancy of polymer materials is closely linked to the types and compositions of flame retardants used. However, due to the complex relationships involved, it is difficult to quantify and predict flame retardancy using linear equations and models. Alkyl phosphinate flame retardants have emerged as promising candidates for their environmentally friendly, low toxicity, and excellent flame retardant properties. In this study, we aimed to develop a novel, low‐cost alkyl phosphinate flame retardant by predicting the quantitative impact of flame retardant composition on flame retardancy. To establish prediction models for the limiting oxygen index (LOI) value of alkyl phosphinate flame retardants, we utilized artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) programs, namely ANN, ANFIS‐grid partition (GP), and ANFIS‐subtractive clustering (SC). The prediction models were trained and validated, and their reliability was assessed based on the root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) criteria. Our results indicate that the ANFIS‐SC prediction model exhibits the highest reliability, with high accuracy and ideal prediction results.

The fluctuation and uncertainty of wind power generation bring severe challenges to secure and economic operation of power systems. Because wind power forecasting error is unavoidable, probabilistic forecasting becomes critical to accurately quantifying the uncertainty involved in traditional point forecasts of wind power and to providing meaningful information to conduct risk management in power system operation. This paper proposes a novel direct quantile regression approach to efficiently generate nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of wind power generation combining extreme learning machine and quantile regression. Quantiles with different proportions can be directly produced via an innovatively formulated linear programming optimization model, without dependency on point forecasts. Multistep probabilistic forecasting of 10-min wind power is newly carried out based on real wind farm data from Bornholm Island in Denmark. The superiority of the proposed approach is verified through comparisons with other well-established benchmarks. The proposed approach forms a new artificial neural network-based nonparametric forecasting framework for wind power with high efficiency, reliability, and flexibility, which can be beneficial to various decision-making activities in power systems.

Classification problems are frequently encountered in the fields of statistics, econometrics and data mining. Techniques used to solve the problem are changing and developing day by day depending on the technology of the age. For this purpose, besides multivariate statistical techniques, methods based on fuzzy and artificial intelligence are also used today. This study aims to make a comparison between the classification performances of artificial neural network (ANN) from machine learning techniques and Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), which is a combination of ANN and fuzzy logic technique and is based on hybrid learning technique. For this purpose, the countries were classified according to the Human Development Index (HDI) and ANN and ANFIS methods and the results were compared with the HDI. In this context, the HDI of 2015 was measured for 185 countries by using 27 development indicators under eight main topics of health, entrepreneurship, macroeconomics and microeconomics, logistics, trade, social life and natural factors and classification of these countries was estimated. When the analysis results are considered, in economic terms, development is composed of seven factors and eight main subjects according to the estimated index calculated in the study, which is different from the HDI. In terms of statistics, countries have been classified correctly at a rate of 87.5% according to ANN and 91.36% according to ANFIS. In this case, it was observed that the ANFIS method gave better results than ANN.

A new intelligent method based on combination of VMD and ELM for short term wind power forecasting

In accordance with the topographic features and other relevant factors, data affecting wind power generation in engineering practice may be difficult to obtain, and three short-term wind power forecasting methods are proposed based on incomplete data. Most wind power forecasting studies are based on wind speed data, but wind power forecasting needs more influential factors in addition to wind speed data, and it is difficult to obtain these data in actual production and life. Therefore, this paper proposes the wind power forecasting under the condition of incomplete data. First, this paper makes theoretical analysis on multi-state space Markov chain wind power forecasting, backpropagation (BP) neural network wind power forecasting, and genetic algorithm (GA)-BP neural network wind power forecasting, and the corresponding wind power forecasting models are constructed. Second, with the actually measured data of a wind farm in the Heilongjiang province as the research object, the historical data are preprocessed first and then imported into three wind power forecasting models for simulation, and the curves of relative error and absolute error of total wind power forecasting in this area are obtained. Finally, the simulation results of three methods based on incomplete data are analyzed and evaluated. The results show that under the condition of incomplete data, the maximum error of the GA-BP neural network wind power forecasting model improved by the genetic algorithm is reduced from 6.8% to 1.6%, and the forecasting accuracy is greatly improved.

The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.