Comparative Study of Mortality Rate Prediction Using Data-Driven Recurrent Neural Networks and the Lee–Carter Model

BackgroundThe prediction and prevention of influenza is a public health issue of great concern, and the study of timely acquisition of influenza transmission trend has become an important research topic. For achieving more quicker and accurate detection and prediction, the data recorded on the Internet, especially on the search engine from Google or Baidu are widely introduced into this field. Moreover, with the development of intelligent technology and machine learning algorithm, many updated and advanced trend tracking and forecasting methods are also being used in this research problem.MethodsIn this paper, a new recurrent neural network architecture, attention-based long short-term memory model is proposed for influenza surveillance. This is a kind of deep learning model which is trained by processing from Baidu Index series so as to fit the real influenza survey time series. Previous studies on influenza surveillance by Baidu Index mostly used traditional autoregressive moving average model or classical machine learning models such as logarithmic linear regression, support vector regression or multi-layer perception model to fit influenza like illness data, which less considered the deep learning structure. Meanwhile, some new model that considered the deep learning structure did not take into account the application of Baidu index data. This study considers introducing the recurrent neural network with long short-term memory combined with attention mechanism into the influenza surveillance research model, which not only fits the research problems well in model structure, but also provides research methods based on Baidu index.ResultsThe actual survey data and Baidu Index data are used to train and test the proposed attention-based long short-term memory model and the other comparison models, so as to iterate the value of the model parameters, and to describe and predict the influenza epidemic situation. The experimental results show that our proposed model has better performance in the mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, index of agreement and other indicators than the other comparison models.ConclusionOur proposed attention-based long short-term memory model vividly verifies the ability of this attention-based long short-term memory structure for better surveillance and prediction the trend of influenza. In comparison with some of the latest models and methods in this research field, the model we proposed is also excellent in effect, even more lightweight and robust. Future research direction can consider fusing multimodal data based on this model and developing more application scenarios.

Prediction concept needs human-like thinking and ideas. ANN helps make a program for describing the solutions to the prediction problems. To gain accurate prediction, there is a need for deep thinking in the knowledge system discovered. Deep learning helps form such next-level type of ANN thinking. Deep learning models do not require humans for programming the problems. It can determine the prediction by itself by learning the dataset. This paper describes the prediction by considering sequential model for continuous accessing of data with the help of multi-layers. Deep learning is very helpful for predicting larger dataset. This paper proposes an algorithmic model known as a Comprehensive Deep Recurrent Artificial Neural Networks (CDRANN) by hybridizing LSTM (long short-term memory) with RNN (recurrent neural network) backtrack solver for better future stock prediction. This paper also explains the need for hybridizing evolutionary model CDRANN to create a novel change in future prediction.KeywordsCDRANN (Comprehensive Deep Recurrent Artificial Neural Networks)LSTM (long short-term memory)RNN (recurrent neural network)Stock marketPrediction

Deep learning methods such as recurrent neural network and long short-term memory have recently drawn a lot of attentions in many fields such as computer vision, natural language processing and finance. Long short-term memory is a type of recurrent neural network capable of predicting future values of sequential data by learning observed data over time. Many real-world time series in business, finance, weather forecasting and engineering science have periodic property like daily, monthly, quarterly or yearly period and need efficient tools to forecast their future events and values. The forecasting study and tools in these fields are therefore essential and important. In this paper, we present a deep learning technique, called bidirectional long short-term memory, in forecasting time series data. The bidirectional long short-term memory model is evaluated based on the benchmark periodic time series dataset. The model performs well on the macro and industry categories and achieves average mean absolute percentage errors less than 9%. It is shown that the bidirectional architecture obtains the better results than the baseline models. We also test the model by tuning the time step parameter to evaluate how the time step length impacts on forecasting performance of the model.

In contrast to long short term memory techniques, the proposed study intends to produce automatic next word generation for text-based applications while enhancing accuracy using state-of-the-art generative pretrained transformers and recurrent neural networks. Materials and Methods: On the data, which is a text file including a series of words, generative pretrained transformer models and long short term memory are used. Long short term memory model that contrasts cutting edge generative pretrained transformer models for recommendation accuracy of the next word. It has been suggested and created to use LSTM. The sample size was calculated to be 8046 for each group with a G power of 0.8. Results: When compared with a long short term memory model (70.84%) for the same dataset p=0.02(p<0.05), the accuracy in predicting the upcoming word for text editor based Applications utilizing generative pretrained transformers was greatest at 87.98% with the lowest mean error. In generating the next word for text-based Applications, the study shows that generative pretrained transformers are more accurate than long short term memory..Conclusion: The study demonstrates that when recommending the most possible word for text generation based applications, generative pretrained transformers are more accurate than long short term memory.

In the energy sector, accurate forecasting of natural gas production and liquid level detection is crucial for efficient resource management and operational planning. This study proposes an integrated deep learning model by incorporating bidirectional long short-term memory and Informer, for predicting these critical parameters. The bidirectional long short-term memory model, a type of recurrent neural network, is renowned for its ability to capture temporal dependencies in sequential data, making it a strong candidate for time series forecasting. On the other hand, Informer, a recent advancement in the field, offers an innovative self-attention mechanism that can handle long-term dependencies with reduced computational complexity. In addition, these models are implemented by using a comprehensive dataset of natural gas production and liquid level detection, applying rigorous preprocessing and feature engineering techniques to enhance model performance. The proposed deep learning models are evaluated on the dataset comparing with the state-of-the-art algorithms. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of both models for gas production and liquid level detection, simultaneously. This study contributes to the body of knowledge by providing insights into the application of advanced deep learning techniques in the energy sector and offers a benchmark for future research in this domain.

IntroductionDrug safety has increasingly become a serious public health problem that threatens health and damages social economy. The common detection methods have the problem of high false positive rate. This study aims to introduce deep learning models into the adverse drug reaction (ADR) signal detection and compare different methods.MethodsThe data are based on adverse events collected by Center for ADR Monitoring of Guangdong. Traditional statistical methods were used for data preliminary screening. We transformed data into free text, extracted text information and made classification prediction by using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. We compared it with the existing signal detection methods, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, K-NearestNeighbor, and Multilayer Perceptron. The feature importance of the included variables was analyzed.ResultsA total of 2,376 ADR signals were identified between January 2018 and December 2019, comprising 448 positive signals and 1,928 negative signals. The sensitivity of the LSTM model based on free text reached 95.16%, and the F1-score was 0.9706. The sensitivity of Logistic Regression model based on feature variables was 86.83%, and the F1-score was 0.9063. The classification results of our model demonstrate superior sensitivity and F1-score compared to traditional methods. Several important variables “Reasons for taking medication”, “Serious ADR scenario 4”, “Adverse reaction analysis 5”, and “Dosage” had an important influence on the result.ConclusionThe application of deep learning models shows potential to improve the detection performance in ADR monitoring.

Human like visual and auditory sensory devices became very popular in recent years through the work of deep learning models that incorporate aspects of brain processing such as edge and line detectors found in the visual cortex. However, very little work has been done on the human memory, and thus our aim is to model human long-term declarative episodic memory storage using deep learning methods. An innovative way of deep neural network was created on supervised feature learning dataset such as MNIST to achieve high accuracy as well as storing the models hidden layers for future extraction. Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) learning models with transfer learning models were trained to imitate the long-term declarative episodic memory storage of human. A Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) in the form of Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model was assembled in layers and then trained and evaluated. A Variational Autoencoder was also used for training and evaluation to mimic the human memory model. Frameworks were constructed using TensorFlow for training and testing the deep learning models.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have major impact to health and medical infrastructure, economy, and agriculture. Prominent computational and mathematical models have been unreliable due to the complexity of the spread of infections. Moreover, lack of data collection and reporting makes modelling attempts difficult and unreliable. Hence, we need to re-look at the situation with reliable data sources and innovative forecasting models. Deep learning models such as recurrent neural networks are well suited for modelling spatiotemporal sequences. In this paper, we apply recurrent neural networks such as long short term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM, and encoder-decoder LSTM models for multi-step (short-term) COVID-19 infection forecasting. We select Indian states with COVID-19 hotpots and capture the first (2020) and second (2021) wave of infections and provide two months ahead forecast. Our model predicts that the likelihood of another wave of infections in October and November 2021 is low; however, the authorities need to be vigilant given emerging variants of the virus. The accuracy of the predictions motivate the application of the method in other countries and regions. Nevertheless, the challenges in modelling remain due to the reliability of data and difficulties in capturing factors such as population density, logistics, and social aspects such as culture and lifestyle.

Detection and prediction of the novel Coronavirus present new challenges for the medical research community due to its widespread across the globe. Methods driven by Artificial Intelligence can help predict specific parameters, hazards, and outcomes of such a pandemic. Recently, deep learning-based approaches have proven a novel opportunity to determine various difficulties in prediction. In this work, two learning algorithms, namely deep learning and reinforcement learning, were developed to forecast COVID-19. This article constructs a model using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), particularly the Modified Long Short-Term Memory (MLSTM) model, to forecast the count of newly affected individuals, losses, and cures in the following few days. This study also suggests deep learning reinforcement to optimize COVID-19's predictive outcome based on symptoms. Real-world data was utilized to analyze the success of the suggested system. The findings show that the established approach promises prognosticating outcomes concerning the current COVID-19 pandemic and outperformed the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and the Machine Learning model, Logistic Regresion (LR) in terms of error rate.

MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) are definitely one of the best approach to support the international agenda about inclusive and equitable education and lifelong learning opportunities for all (SDG4) [1]. A great deal universities and institutions offer valuable free courses to their numerous students and to people around the word through MOOC platforms. However, because of huge number of learners and data generated, learner’s behaviour in those platforms remain a kind of black box for learners themselves and for courses instructors who are supposed to tutor or monitor learners in the learning process. Therefore, learner do not receive sufficient support from instructors and from their peers, during the learning process [2]. This is one the main reasons that lead to high dropout, low completion and success rate observed in the MOOCs. Many research work have suggested descriptive, predictive and prescriptive models to address this issue, but most of these models focus on predicting dropout, completion and/or success, and do not generally pay enough attention to one of the key step (learner behaviour), that comes before, and can explain dropping out and failure. Our research aims to develop a deep learning model to predict learner behaviour (learner interactions) in the learning process, in order to equip learners and course instructors with insight understanding of the learner behaviour in the learning process. This specific paper will focus on analysing relevant algorithms to develop such model. For this analysis, we used data from UNESCO-IICBA (International Institute for Capacity Building in Africa) MOOC platform, designed for teacher training in Africa, and then we examine many types of features: geographical, social behavioural and learning behavioural features. Learner’s behaviour being a time series Big data, we built the predictive model using Deep Learning algorithms for better performance and accuracy (Thanks to the power of deep learning) compared to baseline Machine learning algorithms. Time series data is best handled by recurrent neural networks (RNN) [3], so, we choose RNN and implemented/tested the three main architectures of RNN: Simple RNNs, GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) RNNs and LSTM (Long short-term memory) RNNs. The models were trained using L2 Regularization, based on the predictions results, we unexpectedly found model with simple RNNs produced the best performance and accuracy on the dataset used than the other RNN architectures. We had couple of observations, example: we saw a correlation between video viewing and quiz behaviour and the participation of the learner to the learning process. This observation could allow teachers to provide meaningful support and guidance to at risk or less active students. We also observed that, the shorter the video or the quiz, the more the viewer. We conclude that we could use learner video or quiz viewing behaviour to predict his behaviour concerning other MOOC contents. These results suggest the need of deeper research on educational video and educational quiz designing for MOOCs.

This paper attempts to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and market sentiment on the dynamics of USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CNY. We compose the market sentiment variable and incorporate the newly confirmed COVID-19 cases and sentiment variable into the traditional exchange rate forecasting model. We find that confirmed COVID-19 cases and sentiment variables in the US, Japan, UK, and China in the period of January 23rd, 2020 to September 14th, 2021 are significant in explaining the bilateral exchange rate movement. Recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models outperform the other deep learning models and vector autoregressive (VAR) model in forecasting the bilateral exchange rate movement during the COVID-19 pandemic period. Further analysis using high-frequency intraday data and ensemble models shows that ensemble models significantly improve the accuracy of exchange rate prediction, as they are better at coping with the nonlinear and nonstationary features of exchange rate time series.

Forecasting daily PM2.5 concentrations in Wuhan with a spatial-autocorrelation-based long short-term memory model

The reasonable pricing of options can effectively help investors avoid risks and obtain benefits, which plays a very important role in the stability of the financial market. The traditional single option pricing model often fails to meet the ideal expectations due to its limited conditions. Combining an economic model with a deep learning model to establish a hybrid model provides a new method to improve the prediction accuracy of the pricing model. This includes the usage of real historical data of about 10,000 sets of CSI 300 ETF options from January to December 2020 for experimental analysis. Aiming at the prediction problem of CSI 300ETF option pricing, based on the importance of random forest features, the Convolutional Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory model (CNN-LSTM) in deep learning is combined with a typical stochastic volatility Heston model and stochastic interests CIR model in parameter models. The dual hybrid pricing model of the call option and the put option of CSI 300ETF is established. The dual-hybrid model and the reference model are integrated with ridge regression to further improve the forecasting effect. The results show that the dual-hybrid pricing model proposed in this paper has high accuracy, and the prediction accuracy is tens to hundreds of times higher than the reference model; moreover, MSE can be as low as 0.0003. The article provides an alternative method for the pricing of financial derivatives.

Comparison of deep learning models and a typical process-based model in glacio-hydrology simulation

Predicting daily solar radiation using a novel hybrid long short-term memory network across four climate regions of China