Comparison of Artificial Intelligence Based Techniques for Short Term Load Forecasting

Shear connectors play a prominent role in the design of steel-concrete composite systems. The behavior of shear connectors is generally determined through conducting push-out tests. However, these tests are costly and require plenty of time. As an alternative approach, soft computing (SC) can be used to eliminate the need for conducting push-out tests. This study aims to investigate the application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, as sub-branches of SC methods, in the behavior prediction of an innovative type of C-shaped shear connectors, called Tilted Angle Connectors. For this purpose, several push-out tests are conducted on these connectors and the required data for the AI models are collected. Then, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is developed to identify the most influencing parameters on the shear strength of the tilted angle connectors. Totally, six different models are created based on the ANFIS results. Finally, AI techniques such as an artificial neural network (ANN), an extreme learning machine (ELM), and another ANFIS are employed to predict the shear strength of the connectors in each of the six models. The results of the paper show that slip is the most influential factor in the shear strength of tilted connectors and after that, the inclination angle is the most effective one. Moreover, it is deducted that considering only four parameters in the predictive models is enough to have a very accurate prediction. It is also demonstrated that ELM needs less time and it can reach slightly better performance indices than those of ANN and ANFIS.

The discrimination of shale vs. non-shale layers significantly influences the quality of reservoir geological model. In this study, a novel approach was implemented to enhance the model by creating Pseudo Corrected Gamma Ray (CGR) logs using Artificial Intelligence methods to identify the thin shale beds within the reservoir. The lithology of the carbonate reservoir understudy is mostly composed of dolomite and limestone rock with minor amounts of anhydrite and thin shale layers. The identification of shale layers is challenging because of the nature of such reservoirs. The high organic content of the shales and the presence of dolomites, particularly the floatstones and rudstones, can adversely affect the log quality and interpretation and may result in inaccurate log correlations, overestimating/ underestimating Original Oil In Place (OOIP) and reservoir net pays. In such cases, Corrected Gamma Ray (CGR) curves are typically used to identify shale layers. The CGR curve response is due to the combination of thorium and potassium that is associated with the clay content. The difference between the total GR and the CGR is essentially the amount of uranium-associated organic matter. Because of the very limited number of CGR logs in this reservoir, Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach was used to identify shale volume across the entire reservoir. Synthetic CGR curves were generated for the wells lacking CGR logs using AI methods. Resistivity, Density, Neutron and total GR logs were used as inputs while CGR was set as the target. Five wells that have CGR logs were used to train the model. The created pseudo logs were then used to identify shale layers and could also be used to correct effective porosity logs. After statistical analysis of the data, two different Artificial Intelligence Techniques were tested to predict CGR logs; Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). A Sugeno-type FIS structure using subtractive clustering demonstrated the best prediction with correlation coefficient of 0.96 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 20%. The resulting synthetic CGR curves helped identify shale layers that do not extend over the entire reservoir area and ultimately correct the effective porosity logs in the reservoir model. Porosity was primarily obtained from the neutron-density logs which results in very high porosity measurements across the shale layers. This study shows a new workflow to predict shale layers in Carbonate reservoirs. The created pseudo CGR logs would help predict shale and is an added-value data that could be incorporated into the Earth model.

Hydrocarbon reserve evaluation is the major concern for all oil and gas operating companies. Nowadays, the estimation of oil recovery factor (RF) could be achieved through several techniques. The accuracy of these techniques depends on data availability, which is strongly dependent on the reservoir age. In this study, 10 parameters accessible in the early reservoir life are considered for RF estimation using four artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. These parameters are the net pay (effective reservoir thickness), stock-tank oil initially in place, original reservoir pressure, asset area (reservoir area), porosity, Lorenz coefficient, effective permeability, API gravity, oil viscosity, and initial water saturation. The AI techniques used are the artificial neural networks (ANNs), radial basis neuron networks, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with subtractive clustering, and support vector machines. AI models were trained using data collected from 130 water drive sandstone reservoirs; then, an empirical correlation for RF estimation was developed based on the trained ANN model’s weights and biases. Data collected from another 38 reservoirs were used to test the predictability of the suggested AI models and the ANNs-based correlation; then, performance of the ANNs-based correlation was compared with three of the currently available empirical equations for RF estimation. The developed ANNs-based equation outperformed the available equations in terms of all the measures of error evaluation considered in this study, and also has the highest coefficient of determination of 0.94 compared to only 0.55 obtained from Gulstad correlation, which is one of the most accurate correlations currently available.

In this paper, a hybrid meta-heuristic artificial intelligence (AI) method, named “ANFIS–PSOGA,” is developed for modeling the discharge coefficient of circular side orifices for the first time. For this purpose, the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) network is optimized by means of two robust optimization algorithms: the genetic algorithm (GA) and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to enhance the performance of the AI hybrid model. Besides, the k-fold cross-validation method is employed in order to verify the numerical results. Initially, the performance of three fuzzy inference system (FIS) generations of the ANFIS model including grid partitioning, subtractive clustering and fuzzy C-means clustering are evaluated. After that, using the parameters affecting the discharge coefficient, eleven ANFIS models are defined and then the best ANFIS model and the most influencing input parameters are identified through the conduction of a sensitivity analysis. For the superior ANFIS model, mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-square error and the correlation coefficient (R) are obtained 0.021, 0.020 and 0.871, respectively. Also, the Froude number (Fr) is detected as the most effective input parameter. Moreover, the discharge coefficient of the circular side orifices and the flow field within main channels along the side orifices are simulated through the adoption of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. Additionally, the flow field at three different cross sections (beginning, middle and end of orifice) along the side weir is evaluated. For instance, by advancing the flow toward the side orifice, the Froude number is reduced. Besides, at each cross section, the maximum shear stress is estimated to occur in the vicinity of the crest of the circular side orifice. According to the CFD results, the maximum lateral velocity is estimated near the circular side orifice. In addition, the results yielded by the ANFIS, ANFIS–PSO, ANFIS–PSOGA and CFD models are compared and an uncertainty analysis is carried out for the models. Based on the comparison, ANFIS–PSOGA has the best performance in simulating the discharge coefficient. Ultimately, a simple and practical computer code for the best model (ANFIS–PSOGA) is proposed which can be easily used by scholars and engineers in practical usages.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) system contributes a significant role in meeting power requirements and helps the decentralization of power generation and distribution. The output of the individual photovoltaic module depends on local temperature and irradiance. Since the variation of these parameters depends on the environmental factors, it is difficult to obtain maximum power in all instances. The maximum power point tracking (MPPT) technique is used for tracking the maximum power available at a particular instant. This paper presents the maximum power extraction from a photovoltaic system using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques. AI based methods provide a fast dynamic response with high accuracy and mitigate the effects of partial shading. A comparative study is performed for various AI based MPPT techniques such as Fuzzy, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). PV module output is interfaced with the resistive load through the Z-Source inverter (ZSI). The ZSI boost the input voltage and provides an AC output voltage. The AI based MPPT techniques have been investigated with conventional Z-source Inverter (ZSI) and Switched Inductor Z-Source inverter (SL-ZSI). A simple boost control technique is employed to control, both conventional and SL Z-source inverter. The performance of the system is verified using MATLAB Simulink.

Hybrid breeding is fast becoming a key instrument in plants' crop productivity. Grain yield performance of hybrids (F1) under different parental genetic features has consequently received considerable attention in the literature. The main objective of this study was to introduce a new method, known as AI_HIB under different parental genetic features using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. In so doing, the rice cultivars TAM, KHZ, SPD, GHB, IR28, AHM, SHP and their F1 hybrid were used. Having recorded Grain Yield (GY), Unfertile Panicle Number (UFP), Plant Height (HE), Days to Flowering (DF), Panicle Exertion (PE), Panicle Length (PL), Filled Grain Number (FG), Primary Branches Number (PBN), Flag Leaf Length (FLL), Flag Leaf Width (FLW), Flag Leaf Area (FLA), and Plant Biomass (BI) in the field, we include these features in our proposed model. When using the GA and PSO algorithm to select the features, grain yield had the highest frequency at the input of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) structure. The AI_HIB_ANN result revealed that the trained neural network with parental data enjoyed a good ability to predict the response of hybrid performance. Findings also reflected that the obtained MSE was low and R2 value was greater than 96%. AI_HIB_SVM and AI_HIB_ANFIS showed that measuring attributes could predict number of primary branches, plant height, days to flowering and grain yield per plant with accuracies of 99%. These findings have significant implications as it presents a new promising prediction method for hybrid rice yield based on the characteristics of the parent lines by AI. These findings contribute to provide a basis for designing a smartphone application in terms of the AI_HIB_SVM and AI_HIB_ANFIS methods to easily predict hybrid performance with a high accuracy rate.

Short-term electricity demand or load forecasting is the way of estimating future demand for short time horizon, an hour to one week ahead. Short horizon forecasting helps to maintain secure power system, avoids blackout risk and provides adequate electricity supply. Therefore, accurate forecasting is prime concern for day to day planing and ensuring the stability of electricity system. Many literature show their mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for short term load forecasting as less than 2%, which is very competitive performance. The methodology behind good performance is that the model should address the driving factors that effect electricity load and employs appropriate estimation techniques. In our work, multiple linear regression model are developed and Bayesian estimation technique is used. Assuming historical load, temperature, daily, and weekly seasonal patterns as the main effecting factors for electricity load consumption, two models Model A, and Model B are constructed. Model A consist historical load and deterministic terms. However, model B consist all variables of Model A plus temperature variables. These models are analyzed based on their forecasting performance for three years out of sample prediction. Our results showed that when temperature variable is included in model, it can improve the overall performance at least by 20%. Performance improvement was higher during morning and evening hours than day hours. Interestingly, evening hours (17 to 22) are statistically not significant.

Development of new correlations for the oil formation volume factor in oil reservoirs using artificial intelligent white box technique

With the recent developments in energy sector, the pricing of electricity is now governed by the spot market where a variety of market mechanisms are effective. After the new legislation of market liberalization in Turkey, competition-based on hourly price has received a growing interest in the energy market, which necessitated generators and electric utility companies to add new dimensions to their scope of operation: short-term load and price forecasting. The field has several opportunities though not free from challenges. The dynamic behavior of the market price has caused the electric load to become variable and non-stationary. Furthermore, the number of nodes, in which the load must be predicted, is not constant anymore and can no longer be estimated by experts alone. In this competitive scenario, statistical forecasting methods that can automatically and accurately process thousands of data samples are essential. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the importance of short-term load forecasting, how it has received a growing interest in Turkey and to propose an artificial neural network that can forecast the short term electricity load. Through detailed performance evaluations, we demonstrate that our forecasting method is capable of predicting the hourly load accurately.

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) techniques that can be used for different purposes have enabled it to be used in many different industrial applications. These are mainly used for modeling, identification, optimization, prediction and control of complex systems under the influence of more than one parameter in industrial applications. With the increasing accuracy of AI techniques, it has also obtained a wide application area on friction stir welding (FSW), one of the production methods developed in recent years. In this study, commonly used AI techniques for FSW, results, accuracy and superiority of AI techniques are reviewed and evaluated. In addition, an overview of AI techniques for FSW in different material combinations is provided. Considering the articles examined; It is seen that welding speed, rotational speed, the plunge depth, spindle torque, shoulder design, base material, pin design/profile, tool type are used as input parameters and tensile strength, yield strength, elongation, hardness, wear rate, welding quality, residual stress, fatigue strength are used as output parameters. As can be seen from the studies, it made important contributions in deciding what input parameters should be in order to have the output parameter at the desired value. The most common used materials for FSW are Al, Ti, Mg, Brass, Cu and so on. When FSW studies using artificial intelligence techniques were examined, it was seen that 81% of the most used materials were AL alloys and 23% of them were made with dissimilar materials. The most commonly utilized AI techniques were said to be artificial neural networks (ANN), fuzzy logic, machine learning, meta-heuristic methods and hybrid systems. As a result of the examination, ANN was the most widely used method among these methods. However, in recent years, with the exploration of new hybrid methods it was seen that hybrid systems used with ANN have higher accuracy.

Background: The field of sports science has been fundamentally transformed by the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. AI has enabled advances in areas such as performance optimization, training personalization, injury risk assessment and prevention, talent recognition, rehabilitation, athlete monitoring, and wellness optimization. Objective: This review aims to explore the diverse impact of AI in sports science, highlighting advances in AI techniques, the challenges and limitations of integrating AI tools, and the emerging role of AI chatbots in shaping the future of sports research and applications. Methods: The review examines the existing literature on the application of machine learning, deep learning and other AI techniques in various aspects of sports science research and practice. It provides an overview of how these technologies have been used to improve personalized training programs, video analysis, injury risk prediction, talent identification, and rehabilitation. Results: The article describes how AI-powered tools and techniques have revolutionized sports science, enabling personalized, data-driven and efficient approaches to performance optimization. Sophisticated machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks, decision trees and support vector machines have been used to develop predictive models for injury risk assessment and prevention, leading to improvements in athletes' wellbeing and long-term performance. AI-driven talent identification and selection processes have also shown promise in recognizing exceptional athletes with greater accuracy. In addition, the integration of AI into athlete monitoring and rehabilitation has led to greater personalization, better decision making and faster return to play. Conclusion: The integration of AI and machine learning techniques into sports science has the potential to transform the field and lead to improved athlete performance, reduced risk of injury, improved well-being, and more personalized and effective interventions. The emergence of AI chatbots expands the applications of these technologies in sports science and offers new opportunities to streamline research processes, provide personalized advice to athletes and support sports medicine and rehabilitation

Accurate and reliable load forecasting is necessary to ameliorate energy management. Short-term load forecast plays a crucial role in economic and secure system operation. This paper presents a practical method for short-term electric load forecast problem using an artificial neural network with a powerful Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm approach. The applications of real load from Ontario, Canada with hourly load, daily load, and weekly load predictions have been successfully achieved. Both visual comparison and statistical test are discussed and analyzed to validate training and testing phases of the neural network.

Electricity load forecast needs to ensure minimum load wastage and requires intelligent decision-making systems to accurately predict future load demand. Learning capability, robustness and ability to solve nonlinear problems make ANN widely acceptable. For accurate short-term load forecast (STLF), an ensemble soft computing approach, namely ANN-PSOHm, composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) with homeostasis based mutation is presented in this article. To enhance the learning strength of ANN, PSO undergoes homeostasis mutation to bring greater diversity among solutions by exploring in wider search space. To demonstrate the effectiveness of ANN, three case studies on load data of NEPOOL region (courtesy ISO New England) are performed. The experimental results show that ANN-PSOHm improves accuracy by 11.57% MAPE over ANN-PSO.

In this study, we examined the ability of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques in deriving parameters of NMR log starting from conventional logs. To perform this, it was applied Fuzzy Logic (FL) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) techniques separately, forming independent schemes. On the other hand, Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Simple Mean (SM) approaches were used to assign weighting factors to FL and ANN estimates, with the objective to optimize the individual contributions of each one. This methodology made use of, as input data, gamma rays (GR), resistivity laterolog (RLA1), density (RHOB), neutron (NPOR) and sonic (DTCO) logs from two wells drilled through a carbonate reservoirs in Campos Basin - Brazil. The output responses were compared with free fluid porosity (CMFF) and SDR lateral permeability (KSDR - Schlumberger Doll Research), both derived from NMR log of the same wells. The results indicate that ANN performed better when compared with FL, but this last was essential in the success of SM and GA estimates. However, each approach showed a good fit with the parameter curves of NMR log, confirming the utility of the present methodology in the case when there are only conventional logs in the studied well.

Using adaptive network based fuzzy inference system to forecast regional electricity loads