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  • https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218127421501327Copy DOI Icon

Complex Dynamics in a Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Risk Aversion and Fairness Concerns Under Supply Disruption

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Abstract

In this paper, we consider a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) consisting of two suppliers, one manufacturer, one risk-averse retailer and one fair-caring third-party in the presence of supply disruption. We focus on establishing a dynamic Stackelberg game model with bounded rational expectation and analyzing the game evolution process. The effects of key parameters on the Nash equilibrium solutions and their stability are investigated, as well as the complex dynamical behaviors of the CLSC system are explored by using the stability region, bifurcation graph, the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), strange attractors, etc. Moreover, the performance of channel members under different values of parameters is researched by utilizing the (average) expected profits or utilities index. The analysis results reveal that the excessive fast adjustment speed of the manufacturer will lead to the system losing stability and falling into chaos. Also, the retailer’s risk aversion and the third party’s fairness concerns have a destabilization effect on the Nash equilibrium point, while the possibility of supply disruption has different effects on the scope of the adjustment speed of decision variables of the manufacturer. Furthermore, in most cases, an over the top adjustment speed of the manufacturer is disadvantageous to all the channel members for more expected profits, but the third-party can achieve a better performance when the system is in periodic state. Finally, the time-delay feedback control method is proposed to eliminate the system chaos.

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