Computational intelligence methods for helicopter loads estimation

The accurate estimation of component loads in a helicopter is an important goal for life cycle management and life extension efforts. This paper explores the use of evolutionary computational methods to help estimate some of these helicopter dynamic loads. Thirty standard time-dependent flight state and control system parameters were used to construct a set of 180 input variables to estimate the main rotor blade normal bending during forward level flight at full speed. Evolutionary computation methods (single and multi-objective genetic algorithms) optimizing residual variance, gradient, and number of predictor variables were employed to find subsets of the input variables with modeling potential. Clustering was used for composing a statistically representative training set. Machine learning techniques were applied for prediction of the main rotor blade normal bending involving neural networks, model trees (black and white box techniques) and their ensemble models. The results from this work demonstrate that reasonably accurate models for predicting component loads can be obtained using smaller subsets of predictor variables found by evolutionary-computation based approaches.

Support Vector Regression for Predicting the Number of Dengue Incidents in DKI Jakarta

Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting

Notice of Violation of IEEE Publication Principles<br><br>"Internal model control based on locally linear model tree (LOLIMOT) model with application to a PH neutral process"<br>by M. Jalili-Kharaajoo, A. Rahmati and F. Rashidi,<br>in proceedings of the 2003 IEEE Internationa Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, vol 4, pp. 3051-3-55.<br><br>After careful and considered review of the content and authorship of this paper by a duly constituted expert committee, this paper has been found to be in violation of IEEE's Publication Principles.<br><br>This paper contains portions of original text from the paper cited below. The original text was copied without attribution (including appropriate references to the original author(s) and/or paper title) and without permission.<br><br>"Nonlinear Internal Model Control for MISO Systems Based on Local Linear Neuro-Fuzzy Models"<br> by A. Fink, O. Nelles and R. Isermann,<br>in 15th IFAC World Congress, Barcelona, Spain, 2002.<br><br> <br/> The internal model control (IMC) scheme has been widely applied in the field of process control. So far, IMC has been mainly applied to linear processes. This paper discusses the extension of the IMC scheme to nonlinear processes based on local linear models where the properties of linear design procedures can be exploited. The IMC scheme results in controllers that are comparable to conventional multi layer perceptron (MLP) networks. In practice, the tuning of conventional MLP based controllers can be very time-consuming whereas the IMC design procedure is very simple and reliable. The design effort of the IMC based on locally linear model tree (LOLIMOT) algorithm are discussed and the control results are compared by application to nonlinear control of an industrial-scale PH neutralization process. Simulation studies of a PH neutralization process confirm the excellent nonlinear modeling properties of the proposed locally linear network and illustrate the potential for set point tracking and disturbance rejection within an IMC framework.

A nonlinear adaptive output feedback control approach based on LOLIMOT is proposed for a class of nonaffine system in the non-strict feedback form with unknown nonlinearities in this paper. In order to overcome the disadvantages of output feedback control, LOLIMOT which can identify the nonlinear system accurately is applied. During the control process, backstepping approach is utilized to design the adaptive output feedback controller and the internal pseudo-controller is used as one-step predictor. The effectiveness of proposed scheme is shown by simulation on a proper nonlinear system.

IntroductionEndovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) has a marked short-term advantage over open surgical repair in managing abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA); however, this benefit is lost in the long term. The current...

More and more ensemble models are used to forecast business failure. It is generally known that the performance of an ensemble relies heavily on the diversity between each base classifier. To achieve diversity, this study uses kernel‐based fuzzy c‐means (KFCM) to organize firm samples and designs a hierarchical selective ensemble model for business failure prediction (BFP). First, three KFCM methods—Gaussian KFCM (GFCM), polynomial KFCM (PFCM), and Hyper‐tangent KFCM (HFCM)—are employed to partition the financial data set into three data sets. A neural network (NN) is then adopted as a basis classifier for BFP, and three sets, which are derived from three KFCM methods, are used to build three classifier pools. Next, classifiers are fused by the two‐layer hierarchical selective ensemble method. In the first layer, classifiers are ranked based on their prediction accuracy. The stepwise forward selection method is employed to selectively integrate classifiers according to their accuracy. In the second layer, three selective ensembles in the first layer are integrated again to acquire the final verdict. This study employs financial data from Chinese listed companies to conduct empirical research, and makes a comparative analysis with other ensemble models and all its component models. It is the conclusion that the two‐layer hierarchical selective ensemble is good at forecasting business failure.

SummarySepsis-associated acute kidney injury (S-AKI) is very common and early prediction is beneficial. This study aiming to develop an accurate ensemble model to predict the risk of S-AKI based on easily available clinical information. Patients with sepsis from the United States (US) database Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV were used as a modeling cohort to predict the occurrence of AKI by combining Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Neural Network, and Extreme Gradient Boost as four first-level learners via stacking algorithm. The external validation databases were the eICU Collaborative Research Database from US and Critical Care Database comprising infection patients at Zigong Fourth People’s Hospital from China, whose AUROC values for the ensemble model 48–12 h before the onset of AKI were 0.774–0.788 and 0.756–0.813, respectively. In this study, an ensemble model for early prediction of S-AKI onset was developed and it demonstrated good performance in multicenter external datasets.

One of the most challenging topics in analyzing multi-dimensional geo-spatial data such as geophysical data-sets is detecting outlier data. The issue mainly originates from the difficulty in describing “normality” or “abnormality” due to the complexity of the relationships between the data elements. Considerable number of methods have been proposed and applied for detecting outliers whether they are assumed to be noise, anomalies within the data-set or simply isolated events. A new outlier detection method reached from automatic training of Local Linear Model Tree (LOLIMOT) network, and based on the data selected by K-Nearest Neighborhood (KNN) search is proposed in this research. The procedure of selecting data pairs is through decile analysis using distances calculated during KNN data grouping. Experiment on a synthetic 12 cluster 3D data-set is indicative of the method’s robust performance where calculated Cumulative Error Percentage (CEP) is 13% for the method whereas the nearest value for the KNN is 19%. Also, by applying the method on a micro-gravimetric data and an earthquake catalogue related to the north Zagros- west Alborz, and based on the output of the analyses performed, the superiority of the method in outlier detection was confirmed.

Acquiring new customers in any business is much more expensive than trying to keep the existing ones. Thus many prediction models are presented to detect churning customers. The objective of this paper was to improve the predictive accuracy and interpretability of churn detection. For this purpose, the application of the locally linear model tree (LOLIMOT) algorithm, which integrates the advantage of neural networks, tree model and fuzzy modeling, was experimented. Applied to the data of a major telecommunication company, the method is found to improve prediction accuracy significantly compared to other algorithms, such as artificial neural networks, decision trees, and logistic regression. The results also indicate that LOLIMOT can have accurate outcome in extremely unbalanced datasets.

An intelligent predictive control with locally linear neurofuzzy identifier and numerically optimization procedure has been proposed for temperature control of electrically heated micro heat exchanger. To this end, first the dynamics of the micro heat exchanger is identified using Locally Linear Model Tree (LOLIMOT) algorithm. Then, the predictive control strategy based on the LOLIMOT model of the plant is applied to provide set point tracking of the output of the plant. Some computer simulation is provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed controller. Simulation results show better performance for the proposed controller in comparison with PID controller.

Logistic regression is a classical linear model for logit-transformed conditional probabilities of a binary target variable. It recovers the true conditional probabilities if the joint distribution of predictors and the target is of log-linear form. Weights-of-evidence is an ordinary logistic regression with parameters equal to the differences of the weights of evidence if all predictor variables are discrete and conditionally independent given the target variable. The hypothesis of conditional independence can be tested in terms of log-linear models. If the assumption of conditional independence is violated, the application of weights-of-evidence does not only corrupt the predicted conditional probabilities, but also their rank transform. Logistic regression models, including the interaction terms, can account for the lack of conditional independence, appropriate interaction terms compensate exactly for violations of conditional independence. Multilayer artificial neural nets may be seen as nested regression-like models, with some sigmoidal activation function. Most often, the logistic function is used as the activation function. If the net topology, i.e., its control, is sufficiently versatile to mimic interaction terms, artificial neural nets are able to account for violations of conditional independence and yield very similar results. Weights-of-evidence cannot reasonably include interaction terms; subsequent modifications of the weights, as often suggested, cannot emulate the effect of interaction terms.

The prediction of hail. Part II: the movement of hail cells

A fundamental part of medical research is the development and validation of diagnostic and prognostic prediction models [1,2]. These prediction models aim to predict the absolute probability that a certain disease or condition is currently present (diagnostic models) or that an outcome will occur within a specific follow-up period (prognostic models) for an individual subject. Prediction models typically rely on multiple predictors, which can include demographic characteristics, medical history and physical examination items, or more complex measurements from, for example, medical imaging, electrophysiology, pathology, and biomarkers. Also for diagnostic models, estimates of probabilities are rarely based on a single test, and doctors naturally integrate several patient characteristics and symptoms [3]. A broad range of prediction modeling techniques exist, like regression approaches, neural network models, decision tree models, genetic programming models, and support vector machine learning models, although prediction models developed by a multivariable regression approach are by far prevailing. It is widely recommended that a developed prediction model should not be used in practice before being externally validated—at least once—in other individuals than those used for model development [4–7]. Unfortunately, most prediction models are poorly or not at all validated, rendering interpretation of their generalizability difficult. In addition, many systematic reviews showed that for the same outcome or same target population, numerous competing models exist [8–10]. Generally speaking, researchers often ignore existing prediction models and develop yet another prediction model from their own data [2]. This practice sustains a cycle of underpowered prediction model development studies and poor knowledge about the generalizability and applicability of developed prediction models. Evidence synthesis and meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) from multiple studies seems to be a unique opportunity to address these problems, as it allows researchers to develop and directly validate models on large datasets and across a wide range of populations and settings, to directly test a model’s generalizability (Fig 1) [11–13]. Fig 1 Trends in publications of IPD-MA studies focusing on the development and/or validation of diagnostic or prognostic prediction models. There is currently little guidance on how to conduct an IPD meta-analysis (IPD-MA) for developing and/or validating diagnostic or prognostic prediction models [15]. To date, most IPD-MA articles focus on estimating relative quantities, like a risk ratio, hazard ratio, or odds ratio for a specific treatment or a specific etiologic factor. In contrast, prediction modeling research is focused on developing and validating multivariable models aimed at calculating an absolute risk estimate of the combined variables, rather than estimating the relative effect of a specific treatment or etiologic factor. Furthermore, prediction modeling studies focus entirely on the role and joint contribution of multiple covariates, whereas intervention studies in principle rely on randomization to reduce the role of covariates (Table 1). Hence, IPD-MAs of randomized intervention and etiological studies, which are beyond the scope of this paper and are instead addressed in the accompanying paper [16], differ from IPD-MAs of multivariable prediction models, which are the focus of this paper. Table 1 The main differences between IPD-MA of treatment intervention studies and of multivariable prediction modeling studies. We provide an overview of the advantages and limitations of IPD-MAs aiming to develop a novel prediction model or to validate one or more existing models across multiple datasets. This overview is based on published guidelines and existing recommendations for the conduct of prediction modeling studies and of IPD-MA research. We illustrate this overview with examples of recently published IPD-MAs of prediction models across various medical domains. Our aim is to help researchers, readers, reviewers, and editors to identify and understand the key issues involved with such IPD-MA projects.

This paper proposes a radial basis function (RBF) neural network-based model for short-term solar power prediction (SPP). Instead of predicting solar power directly, the model predicts transmissivity, which is then used to obtain solar power according to the extraterrestrial radiation. The proposed model uses a novel two-dimensional (2D) representation for hourly solar radiation and uses historical transmissivity, sky cover, relative humidity and wind speed as the input. Simulation studies are carried out to validate the proposed model for short-term SPP by using the data obtained from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The performance of the RBF neural network is compared with that of two linear regression models, i.e., an autoregressive (AR) model and a local linear regression (LLR) model. Results show that the RBF neural network significantly outperforms the AR model and is better than the LLR model. Furthermore, the use of transmissivity and other meteorological variables, especially the sky cover, can significantly improve the SPP performance.