Conditional likelihood inference in a heteroscedastic functional measurement error model

In cluster-specific studies, ordinary logistic regression and conditional logistic regression for binary outcomes provide maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and conditional maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE), respectively. In this paper, we show that CMLE is approaching to MLE asymptotically when each individual data point is replicated infinitely many times. Our theoretical derivation is based on the observation that a term appearing in the conditional average log-likelihood function is the coefficient of a polynomial, and hence can be transformed to a complex integral by Cauchy’s differentiation formula. The asymptotic analysis of the complex integral can then be performed using the classical method of steepest descent. Our result implies that CMLE can be biased if individual weights are multiplied with a constant, and that we should be cautious when assigning weights to cluster-specific studies.

It has been known for several years that conditional and mixture maximum likelihood estimates do agree for the dichotomous Rasch model (RM). This equivalence may be attained by a sufficient number of mixing components in a specifically restricted latent-class model. Because the principle of such a semiparametric approach is a general one (Kiefer & Wolfowitz, 1956), it also applies to some other models of the Rasch type having simple sufficient statistics. Exact equivalence regarding the parameter estimates can be shown, for example, for the linear logistic test model, a RM with linearly constrained item parameters, and for the polytomous RM; only almost equivalence is found for the mixed RM. As formal proofs of these results are difficult, the presentation focuses on numerical examples demonstrating the said (almost) equivalence.

BackgroundGroup sequential designs are increasingly employed to allow trials to stop early with statistical rigor. While existing work focuses on intention-to-treat effect on clinical endpoints, the properties of mediation analysis (commonly conducted in psychological trials to understand a causal mechanism) remain unknown under group sequential designs.MethodsConsidering a group sequential design with one interim analysis for early stopping for efficacy, we conduct a simulation study to evaluate existing analysis techniques when the treatment effect on a continuous outcome is partially or fully mediated by a continuous intermediate variable measuring a casual mechanism. We study the probability of rejecting the null hypotheses on the total effect (i.e., intention-to-treat effect), direct effect and indirect effect, respectively. We examine the bias of maximum likelihood estimator for these effects. We investigate if the penalized (and conditional) maximum likelihood estimator has smaller bias than the maximum likelihood estimator when a trial stopped (did not stop) early.ResultsThe presence of an intermediate variable reduces the power of a group sequential design when sample size calculation ignores the causal mechanism, though type I error control remains unaffected. The maximum likelihood estimator is unbiased only for the mediator-outcome path, impacting the properties of mediation analysis since existing methods typically rely on it to estimate the pathways. The penalized maximum likelihood estimator for other pathways has similar bias to the stage-one maximum likelihood estimator, while the conditional maximum likelihood estimator shows negligible or smaller bias than the usual maximum likelihood estimator for estimating the total and the direct effects only.ConclusionsMediation analysis needs additional consideration in group sequential designs. As with fixed trial designs, the sample size calculation of group sequential designs should account for the total variability underlying a causal mechanism when the treatment effect is hypothesized to be mediated by an intermediate variable, or risk the overall power to detect an intention-to-treat (total) effect being lower than the nominal value. We suggest reporting several estimators and acknowledging that they may be biased for some mediation pathways. More research is needed to develop methods for the analysis of indirect effect under group sequential designs.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-025-02714-y.

The Rasch model is one of the most prominent item response models. In this article, different item parameter estimation methods for the Rasch model are systematically compared through a comprehensive simulation study: Different alternatives of joint maximum likelihood (JML) estimation, different alternatives of marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation, conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation, and several limited information methods (LIM). The type of ability distribution (i.e., nonnormality), the number of items, sample size, and the distribution of item difficulties were systematically varied. Across different simulation conditions, MML methods with flexible distributional specifications can be at least as efficient as CML. Moreover, in many situations (i.e., for long tests), penalized JML and JML with ε adjustment resulted in very efficient estimates and might be considered alternatives to JML implementations currently used in statistical software. Moreover, minimum chi-square (MINCHI) estimation was the best-performing LIM method. These findings demonstrate that JML estimation and LIM can still prove helpful in applied research.

BackgroundProcedural skills are a key element in the training of future physiotherapists. Procedural skills relate to the acquisition of appropriate motor skills, which allow the safe application of clinical procedures to patients. In order to evaluate procedural skills in physiotherapy education validated assessment instruments are required. Recently the assessment of procedural skills in physiotherapy education (APSPT) tool was developed. The overall aim of this study was to establish the structural validity of the APSPT. In order to do this the following objectives were examined: i) the fit of the items of APSPT to the Rasch-model, ii) the fit of the overall score to the Rasch model, iii) the difficulty of each test item and iv) whether the difficulty levels of the individual test items cover the whole capacity spectrum of students in pre-registration physiotherapy education.MethodsFor this observational cross-sectional measurement properties study a convenience sample of 69 undergraduate pre-registration physiotherapy students of the HES-SO Valais-Wallis was recruited. Participants were instructed to perform a task procedure on a simulated patient. The performance was evaluated with the APSPT. A conditional maximum likelihood approach was used to estimate the parameters of a partial credit model for polytomous item responses. Item fit, ordering of thresholds, targeting and goodness of fit to the Rasch model was assessed.ResultsItem fit statistics showed that 25 items of the APSPT showed adequate fit to the Rasch model. Disordering of item thresholds did not occur and the targeting of the APSPT was adequate to measure the abilities of the included participants. Undimensionality and subgroup homogeneity were confirmed.ConclusionThis study presented evidence for the structural validity of the APSPT. Undimensionality of the APSPT was confirmed and therefore presents evidence that the latent dimension of procedural skills in physiotherapy education consists of several subcategories. However, the results should be interpreted with caution given the small sample size.

We illustrate a class of conditional models for the analysis of longitudinal data suffering attrition in random effects models framework, where the subject-specific random effects are assumed to be discrete and to follow a time-dependent latent process. The latent process accounts for unobserved heterogeneity and correlation between individuals in a dynamic fashion, and for dependence between the observed process and the missing data mechanism. Of particular interest is the case where the missing mechanism is non-ignorable. To deal with the topic we introduce a conditional to dropout model. A shape change in the random effects distribution is considered by directly modeling the effect of the missing data process on the evolution of the latent structure. To estimate the resulting model, we rely on the conditional maximum likelihood approach and for this aim we outline an EM algorithm. The proposal is illustrated via simulations and then applied on a dataset concerning skin cancers. Comparisons with other well-established methods are provided as well.

Rasch mixture models can be a useful tool when checking the assumption of measurement invariance for a single Rasch model. They provide advantages compared to manifest differential item functioning (DIF) tests when the DIF groups are only weakly correlated with the manifest covariates available. Unlike in single Rasch models, estimation of Rasch mixture models is sensitive to the specification of the ability distribution even when the conditional maximum likelihood approach is used. It is demonstrated in a simulation study how differences in ability can influence the latent classes of a Rasch mixture model. If the aim is only DIF detection, it is not of interest to uncover such ability differences as one is only interested in a latent group structure regarding the item difficulties. To avoid any confounding effect of ability differences (or impact), a new score distribution for the Rasch mixture model is introduced here. It ensures the estimation of the Rasch mixture model to be independent of the ability distribution and thus restricts the mixture to be sensitive to latent structure in the item difficulties only. Its usefulness is demonstrated in a simulation study, and its application is illustrated in a study of verbal aggression.

A new estimator of the common odds ratio in one-to-one matched case-control studies is proposed. The connection between this estimator and the James-Stein estimating procedure is highlighted through the argument of estimating functions. Comparisons are made between this estimator, the conditional maximum likelihood estimator, and the estimator ignoring the matching in terms of finite sample bias, mean squared error, coverage probability, and length of confidence interval. In many situations, the new estimator is found to be more efficient than the conditional maximum likelihood estimator without being as biased as the estimator that ignores matching. The extension to multiple risk factors is also outlined.

Hybrid censoring schemes are commonly used in life-testing experiments to reduce the experimental time and the cost. A Type-II progressive hybrid censoring scheme (PHCS) was introduced by Kundu and Joarder (Comput Stat Data Anal 50:2509–2528, 2006) that combines progressive Type-II censoring and Type-I censoring. In this paper, we consider the statistical inference of a two-parameter exponential distribution under the Type-II PHCS. The conditional maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters and their joint and marginal conditional moment generating functions are derived. Based on these exact conditional moments, bias-reduced estimators are proposed and their distributions are discussed. Confidence intervals of the model parameters based on exact and asymptotic distributions of the MLEs and bias-reduced estimators are developed. The performances of the point and interval estimation procedures are evaluated and compared through exact calculations and Monte Carlo simulations. Recommendations are made based on these results and an illustrative example is presented.

A new First-Order mixture integer-valued threshold autoregressive process based on binomial thinning and negative binomial thinning

Flexible binomial AR(1) processes using copulas

This paper proposes a family of first order bivariate integer-valued autoregressive (BINAR(1)) with Poisson Lindley innovations (BINAR(1)PL). The model parameters are estimated using the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation approach. The proposed models are applied on some real life crime data.

The problem of time delay estimation (TDE) in the presence ofzero mean white Gaussian noise is addressed. A novel and efficient algorithm for obtaining Conditional Maximum Likelihood (CML) estimates of delays, attenuation factors and the number of paths from a transmitter to a receiver is introduced. This approach is quite suitable for the cases in which time delay difference is less than the duration of signal autocorrelation.

This paper considers the autoregressive modelling problem of ‐valued time series of counts, whose counting sequence consists of −1, 0 and 1. Most existing methods are based on the signed binomial thinning operator and its some extensions, in which the counting sequence consists of 0 and 1, that is, the cases of −1 is ignored. To fill this gap, we first construct the trinomial difference thinning operator and then propose the trinomial difference Z‐valued autoregressive (TDZAR) model and give some stochastic properties. An attractive merit of the TDZAR model is that the incorporated trinomial difference thinning operator makes the conditional maximum likelihood estimate more wieldy and easy. Second, we discuss the two‐step conditional least squares estimate and the conditional maximum likelihood estimate and establish their asymptotic properties of the estimators. Third, the performances of these estimators are compared via simulation study. Finally, we apply the proposed model to a real data set.

This paper introduces a non-negative integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) process with seasonal structure of first order, which is an extension of the standard INAR(1) model proposed by Al-Osh and Alzaid [First-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process. J Time Ser Anal. 1987;8:261–275]. The main properties of the model are derived such as its stationarity and autocorrelation function (ACF), among others. The conditional least squares and conditional maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters are studied and their asymptotic properties are established. Some detailed discussion is dedicated to the case where the marginal distribution of the process is Poisson. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to evaluate and compare the performances of these estimators for finite sample sizes. The standard Yule–Walker approach is also considered for comparison purposes. The empirical results indicate that, in general, the conditional maximum likelihood estimator presents much better performance in terms of bias and mean square error. The model is illustrated using a real data set.