Conserving landscape dynamics, not just landscapes

The protection of migratory birds and their habitats is important to the ecological stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Currently protected areas (PAs) were designed in accordance with species distribution patterns under current climatic conditions, thus ignoring climate change will lead to a decrease in the protection efficiency of PAs. In this study, using the flagship species Grus nigricollis, as an example, we used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to simulate the distributions and conservation status of G. nigricollis and optimized the existing PA boundaries . The results showed that (1) suitable habitat- for G. nigricollis accounts for 12.48% of the QTP area, and the PAs established under current climatic conditions cover 17.84% of this suitable habitat area; (2) future climate changes will influence the distribution and quality of G. nigricollis habitats, and the average protection efficiency of the current PAs in four climatic scenarios will decrease from 17.84% to 15.31%; and (3) through optimization, the efficiency of existing PAs can be increased by 0.75 times and reach 28.37%, indicating PA planning must consider not only current climate conditions but also the effects of climate changes. Our results aim to address shortcomings in the conservation efficiency of PAs and provide an example for resolving mismatched PA boundaries and habitat changes for species.

The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network.

Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or “footprint”) of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have narrow geographic distributions, and are thus prone to future shifts away from the climatic conditions in these parks in current climates. In other cases, some parks are broadly similar to large geographic regions surrounding the park or have climatic envelopes that may persist into near-term climate change. Larger parks predict larger climatic envelopes, in current conditions, but on average the predicted area of climate envelopes are smaller in our single future conditions scenario. Individual units in a protected area network may vary in the potential for climate adaptation, and adaptive management strategies for the network should account for the landscape contexts of the geodiversity or climate diversity within individual units. Conservation strategies, including maintaining connectivity, assessing the feasibility of assisted migration and other landscape restoration or enhancements can be optimized using analysis methods to assess the spatial properties of protected area networks in biogeographic and macroecological contexts.

An oracle for protected area management

Introduction. The spatial structure of the landscapes of the North Caucasus has been fairly well studied to date, which cannot be said about the temporal structure. The climatic changes noted in the territory of the North Caucasus are undoubtedly reflected in the temporal structure of landscapes, which determines the relevance of this study, the purpose of which is to identify common features and characteristic features of the seasonal and year-to-year dynamics of the mountain landscapes of the North Caucasus. Materials and methods. To analyze the seasonal and year-to-year dynamics of the mountain landscapes of the North Caucasus, methodological approaches developed by L.N. Beruchashvili and V.V. Bratkov and tested by him for various territories. The analysis of the seasonal and yearly variability dynamics of the mountain landscapes of the North Caucasus was carried out on the example of mountain-hollow (Shatoy) and mountain-valley (Ahty) landscapes. In the Excel spreadsheet, the material was processed in three gradations: temperature regime, moisture regime and trends in the vertical structure. Processing was carried out using data (average temperature and precipitation) from the Shatoy and Ahty weather stations for the period from 1961 to 2020. On the basis of the results obtained, the seasonal and yearly variability dynamics of the mountain landscapes of the North Caucasus was derived in percentage terms. Results. The occurrence and correlation of groups of states over time periods, reflecting the conditions of heat and moisture supply, vary quite significantly, to which different groups of intralandscape vegetation react differently. However, in general, the temporal structure of the mountain-basin and mountain-valley landscapes of the North Caucasus is stable, and modern climate changes do not lead to the emergence of new states that are not typical for the analyzed landscapes. Discussion. The latest studies of the seasonal and temporal dynamics of the landscapes of the North Caucasus and its individual regions end in 2015. We continued this direction, because in our opinion, it is relevant and promising. Our study confirms the conclusions of the authors of previous years that, despite climatic changes, the temporal structure of mountain landscapes is stable. Conclusion. In the temporal structure of the mountain landscapes of the North Caucasus, the main share belongs to humid and semi-humid states in summer and nival in winter. The ratios of groups of states over time intervals within mountain landscapes change quite significantly. As a result, the conditions for the growth of different groups of vegetation change. So, with an increase in the proportion of cryothermal conditions, as it was in 1971-1975 conditions become less favorable for the growth of woody vegetation, but more favorable for the development of grassy vegetation of the steppe type. With an increase in summer humidity, which is manifested by an increase in the proportion of the corresponding states, and a simultaneous softening of winter conditions, during which the proportion of nival states increases and a decrease in cryothermal states, as was the case in 1996–2000, the temporal structure becomes similar to forest landscapes. Resume. An analysis of the temporal structure of the mountain landscapes of the North Caucasus showed that it is characterized by high stability. Despite the noted climatic changes, there are no prerequisites for changing the temporal and, as a result, the landscape structure of the mountain landscapes of the North Caucasus. Suggestions for practical application and direction for future research. The results of the study can be useful in agriculture to identify the relationship between certain conditions and crop yields and forecasting natural hazards (droughts, frosts, etc.).

Semi-arid African ecosystems influence trends and variability in global terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, there are uncertainties in potential effects of future climates for semi-arid ecosystems, especially for niche ecosystems. At the same time, African ecosystems provide the livelihoods and ecosystem services for around 1.4 billion people. Future population growth and associated changes in land use pose a challenge for the protection of African biodiversity. Therefore, this work focussed on future impacts of climate change on African ecosystems and carbon dynamics and also for African protected areas (PAs), where they may cooccur with other global change factors. Another focus was on uncertainties associated with future projections and with modelling the Nama Karoo, as an example of a semi-arid niche ecosystem. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) were the main research tool. In Chapter 2, we analysed climate change impacts on African ecosystems and carbon pools until the end of the 21st century and associated uncertainties based on an ensemble of vegetation simulations with the DVM adaptive dynamic vegetation model (aDGVM). We investigated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and two climate change scenarios (medium (RCP4.5) and high emissions (RCP8.5); RCP - representative concentration pathway) on vegetation changes. Differences in the simulated vegetation were primarily driven by assumptions about the influence of CO2 on plants. Elevated CO2 concentrations led to increased total aboveground vegetation biomass and shrub encroachment into grasslands and savannas for both climate scenarios. In simulations without the direct influence of CO2 on plants, there was hardly any shrub encroachment and vegetation biomass decreased or varied between a slight decrease in some cases and a slight increase in others. Based on these results, biome changes due to climate change are likely in Africa in the future. Due to the large uncertainties in future projections, strategies to adapt to climate change must be flexible. The simulated vegetation in Chapter 2 represented potential, natural vegetation and is particularly suitable to investigate PAs. However, PAs do not exist isolated from their environment and social developments. In Chapter 3, the vegetation projections with CO2 effect from Chapter 2 were combined with projections for population density and land use. Except for many PAs in North Africa, most PAs were adversely affected by at least one of the three drivers by the end of the 21st century in both investigated scenarios ("middle-of-the-road" and "fossil-fuelled development"). Cooccurrence of the drivers varied by region and scenario for PAs. Both scenarios implied increasing challenges for the conservation of African biodiversity in PAs. The impact of climate change on vegetation is likely to be exacerbated by socio-economic change for most African PAs. Strong mitigation of future climate change together with equitable societal development may facilitate successful ecosystem conservation. The simulations in Chapters 2 and 3 showed large-scale patterns of vegetation change, but their low resolution makes them unsuitable for local analyses. In Chapter 4, the challenges of simulating smaller scale, semi-arid ecosystems and their carbon cycle were analysed for the Nama Karoo with the aDGVM2 and its shrub module. The aDGVM2 is based on the aDGVM, but represents plants more flexibly. In all tested aDGVM2 configurations, the carbon fluxes improved compared to initial simulations but still overestimated them. The measured morphology of the dwarf shrubs and soil water dynamics were not reproduced in aDGVM2. Semi-arid soil water dynamics and coping strategies of semi-arid dwarf shrubs under drought stress are not adequately implemented in the aDGVM2. Further field research on semi-arid water and carbon dynamics of vegetation is necessary to parameterise the aDGVM2 for dwarf shrubs. If these challenges are overcome, DVMs can be a powerful tool for much-needed research on the impacts of climate change on the Nama Karoo. The analyses have shown that climate change under medium to high emission scenarios is likely to lead to large-scale changes in ecosystems and the carbon balance in Africa. Because lower emissions scenarios come with less uncertainty, climate change adaptation strategies likely need to be less complex or extensive if climate change is minimised. For African PAs, the challenges of climate change may be exacerbated by socio-economic factors to a regionally varying extent. This research suggests that successful ecosystem conservation depends on climate change mitigation measures and ensuring equitable, sustainable development. The shown uncertainties, e.g., in the implementation of the CO2 effect on plants or vegetation dynamics in more niche ecosystems, help to focus future research efforts and increase our understanding of the range of plausible futures we may need to adapt to.

Context Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes represent a major driver of global environmental transformation, posing significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. Objectives We evaluated the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 Network (NN2000) considering an ecological approach based on ecoregions, over a 31-year period (1987–2018) within Castile and León region (Spain). Methods Using CORINE Land Cover data, we analyzed LULC dynamics across five ecoregions, comparing patterns within protected areas and their unprotected surrounding areas: 1) Eurosiberian-Mediterranean transition mountains; 2) Mediterranean mountains; 3) Mediterranean steppes and moorlands; 4) Mediterranean highlands; and 5) fluvial systems. Vulnerable zones to landscape transformation were identified, and dominant LULC transition trends were assessed temporally and spatially. Results The results reveal that the landscape dynamics within NN2000 were not driven solely by the presence of a protection designation compared to non-protected areas, but landscape dynamics were also strongly shaped by differences among ecoregions. Among the ecoregions, Mediterranean mountains and fluvial systems exhibited the highest alteration rates. Although NN2000 protections limited human alterations within protected areas, substantial changes also occurred in buffer zones, highlighting external pressures, mainly in Mediterranean steppes and moorlands. Dominant processes included natural forest regeneration in unprofitable areas and agricultural intensification in productive areas, particularly during 1987–2000. Conclusions We conclude that while NN2000 contributed to more sustainable landscape dynamics, the observed LULC changes underscore the need for adaptive management strategies that incorporate ecoregional perspectives to enhance the resilience and ecological functionality of protected landscapes.

Synergistic effects of climate and land use change on khulan (Equus hemionus hemionus) habitat in China

Climate change is driving broad-scale redistribution of species and is expected to accelerate in the coming decades, potentially undermining the effectiveness of existing protected areas (PAs) for biodiversity conservation. We develop a measure of climate zone velocity—the speed and direction at which climatic conditions shift across time and space—to assess exposure of global PAs to climate risks under future climate scenarios. We find that by mid-century, around 20 % of global protected land area is projected to undergo climate zone shifts under all future scenarios and more than half of global terrestrial PAs will face mean velocities greater than 0.1 km yr −1 . Under RCP 8.5, the rate of climate zone velocity will continue to intensify through the end of this century, potentially impacting 40 % of existing PA land area. The current climate zones for approximately 15 % of the land area are expected to shift outside the existing PA network and into human-modified areas, indicating that the existing network will not absorb those changes. About 15 % of current protected land area will also be exposed to emerging climatic conditions with no precedent or loss of existing climatic conditions, potentially undermining the effectiveness of the existing network. Strategic and adaptive conservation planning that explicitly considers climate zone shifts will enable greater resilience for conservation interventions under climate change.

Protected area coverage is set to expand in response to climate change and the biodiversity crisis, but we lack assessments of wildfire incidence in protected areas. Here, we quantify biogeographical variation in global patterns of burned area in protected areas. During the twenty-first century, wildfires have burned 2 billion hectares of protected areas—an area the size of Russia and India combined—and, while protected areas only cover 19.2% of semi-natural ecosystems, they concentrate 28.5% of the area burned annually. Wildfire in protected areas increased significantly between 2001 and 2024 (+0.46% yr−1), even after taking into account increases in protected area (+0.27% yr−1), pointing to a disproportional impact of fire on protected areas under increasingly severe fire weather. This pattern showed marked variation across biomes, with the largest disproportionate increases occurring in fire-prone biomes (e.g., Mediterranean and dry tropical forests, tropical grasslands, and xeric shrublands). There were important exceptions to this general trend, and protected area fire was lower than expected in biomes where fire activity is naturally limited by moisture (e.g., tropical rainforests or montane grasslands). Wildfires are important for the health of many ecosystems, and such values of burned area will not always mean a negative outcome. Amidst concerted efforts to expand protected area coverage, such as the Global Biodiversity Framework, our results highlight the need for new management strategies that address the globally increasing impacts of burned area across protected areas under unabated climate change.

Lithraea molleoides -Anacardiaceae- and Schinopsis haenkeana -Anacardiaceae- are native tree species of great importance in the Chaco Serrano, a region poorly studied in relation to the possible effects that climate change (CC) could have on its extension. Species distribution models are one of the most used tools for tree species conservation in the context of the global climate change. These type of models allow to study the potential distribution of species under current and hypothetical future conditions and the effectiveness of protected areas in representing species. Using modeling techniques we studied the potential distribution of both species for current and hypothetical future climatic conditions (period 2041-2060). Also, we used geographic information systems to determine the potential protected area. The models had a high concordance with the known distribution for both species and showed a potential distribution area of 1124737 km2 for L. molleoides, and 158491 km2 for S. haenkeana. Under climate change scenarios, L. molleoides showed a reduction of 18% in the potential distribution, while S. haenkeana showed an increase of 14% in the potential distribution. For both species, the representation in protected areas of categories I to IV of the International Union for Conservation of Nature was less than 10% of the potential distribution area. Thus, we suggest increasing the protected area considering the potential distribution under future climatic warming scenarios, and to implement conservation strategies integrating the sustainable use of the forest.

Late Quaternary changes in climate and land cover in the Northern Horn of Africa and adjacent areas

Examining the suitability of landscape patches for endangered species enhances critical insights and indicators into the processes of population structure, community dynamics, and functioning in ecosystems particularly in protected areas (PAs). While PAs are the cornerstone in biodiversity conservation, there is debate on their efficacy to retain their conservation superiority over unprotected areas under climate change. In the present study, we examined the spatial and temporal effectiveness of PAs at maintaining suitable habitat for the “vulnerable” Southern Ground-hornbill (SGH), Bucorvus leadbeateri compared with the unprotected areas in Zimbabwe. We used a landscape-scale analysis of 182 PAs, their surrounding buffer zones, and unprotected areas coupled with three machine learning models (maximum entropy: MaxEnt, random forest, and support vector machines) to simulate SGH habitat suitability. Bioclimatic, vegetation seasonality and terrain variables were used as predictors against SGH “presence-only” observations and the models were projected for 2050 as future climatic scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The true skill statistic (TSS) and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of the modeling framework. Our results show that the PAs network in Zimbabwe is extremely relevant for the conservation of SGH, with 8% of the suitable habitat within PAs projected to become unsuitable by 2050. Higher levels of protection status resulted in higher levels of suitable habitat for the SGH while the suitability of eastern-based PAs showed a decrease and the western-based PAs will potentially increase in suitability. Thus, conservation strategies should take the eastern PAs range contraction and associated westward shift into account. The established potential increase in suitability outside the PAs network (23%–31%) might increase conflicts between agriculture and conservation. We, therefore, suggest an expanded cross-boundary institutional alliance and policy development with all stakeholders to implement a holistic conservation plan. Our work demonstrates the importance of combining multi-source remotely sensed data in predicting habitat suitability for endangered species such as the SGH as key indicators of biological conservation and PAs’ effectiveness.

Aim Human land‐use and climate change are two of the main threats affecting biodiversity, especially in arid/semiarid regions. The most effective way to protect the species in these ecosystems against these threats is through the delimitation of protected areas (PAs). However, such PAs need to be targeted cost‐efficiently and consider future climate change. We identify priority areas to preserve small mammal species in the Caatinga in the present and in a future of climate changes. We also evaluate how well these priority areas are protected by currently PAs and identify ways forward to improve their protection. Location The Caatinga Dry Forest, Northeast Brazil. Methods We use ecological niche models and Zonation spatial prioritisation software to identify the top 30% priority areas to preserve small mammal species under current climate and land use scenarios, besides considering optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of future climate change. We also evaluate how much these priority areas are covered by current PAs, identify ways to further improve their protection using hierarchical mask analysis, and by evaluating species mean distribution coverage. Results The consequences of climate change will not hugely impact the distribution of priority areas for species conservation in the Caatinga. Around 13% of the identified priority areas overlap with current PAs, and planning the expansion of PAs considering integral protection areas increases the coverage of priority areas to more than 18% and captures more than 72% of species suitable area. Main Conclusions Our prioritisations take into account climate change and provide low risk if conducted as a ‘no‐regrets’ conservation action. These priority areas are poorly supported by the Brazilian PA system, and need of further protection. One cost‐effective option could be to upgrade some sustainable use PAs into more restrictive ones. Securing these priority areas helps preserve the long‐term ecosystem functioning and to prevent biodiversity loss in a changing world.

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km2 ) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km2 ), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.