Construction of a Clear‐Sky Three Dimensional Sub‐Grid Terrain Long‐Wave Radiative Effect Parameterization Scheme Under Isotropic Assumption

A number of studies have shown that added value is obtained by increasing the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model to capture additional fine-scale weather processes. However, the mechanisms leading to this added value are different over areas with complicated orographic features, such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). To determine the role that horizontal resolution plays over the TP, a detailed comparison was made between the results from the REMO regional climate model at resolutions of 25 and 50 km for the period 1980–2007. The model was driven at the lateral boundaries by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis data. The experiments differ only in representation of topography, all other land parameters (e.g., vegetation characteristics, soil texture) are the same. The results show that the high-resolution topography affects the regional air circulation near the ground surface around the edge of the TP, which leads to a redistribution of the transport of atmospheric water vapor, especially over the Brahmaputra and Irrawaddy valleys—the main water vapor paths for the southern TP—increasing the amount of atmospheric water vapor transported onto the TP by about 5%. This, in turn, significantly decreases the temperature at 2 m by > 1.5 °C in winter in the high-resolution simulation of the southern TP. The impact of topography on the 2 m temperature over the TP is therefore by influencing the transport of atmospheric water vapor in the main water vapor paths.

Abstract. The CALIOPE Air Quality Forecast System (CALIOPE-AQFS) represents the current state of the art in air quality forecasting systems of high-resolution running on high-performance computing platforms. It provides a 48 h forecast of NO2, O3, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, CO, and C6H6 at a 4 km horizontal resolution over all of Spain, and at a 1 km horizontal resolution over the most populated areas in Spain with complex terrains (the Barcelona (BCN), Madrid (MAD) and Andalusia (AND) domains). Increased horizontal resolution from 4 to 1 km over the aforementioned domains leads to finer textures and more realistic concentration maps, which is justified by the increase in NO2/O3 spatial correlation coefficients from 0.79/0.69 (4 km) to 0.81/0.73 (1 km). High-resolution emissions using the bottom-up HERMESv2.0 model are essential for improving model performance when increasing resolution on an urban scale, but it is still insufficient. Decreasing grid spacing does not reveal the expected improvement in hourly statistics, i.e., decreasing NO2 bias by only ~ 2 μg m−3 and increasing O3 bias by ~ 1 μg m−3. The grid effect is less pronounced for PM10, because part of its mass consists of secondary aerosols, which are less affected than the locally emitted primary components by a decreasing grid size. The resolution increase has the highest impact over Barcelona, where air flow is controlled mainly by mesoscale phenomena and a lower planetary boundary layer (PBL). Despite the merits and potential uses of the 1-km simulation, the limitations of current model formulations do not allow confirmation of their expected superiority close to highly urbanized areas and large emissions sources. Future work should combine high grid resolutions with techniques that decrease subgrid variability (e.g., stochastic field methods), and also include models that consider urban morphology and thermal parameters.

Abstract. It was hypothesized that using mineral dust emission climatologies in global chemistry climate models (GCCMs), i.e. prescribed monthly-mean dust emissions representative of a specific year, may lead to misrepresentations of strong dust burst events. This could result in a negative bias of model dust concentrations compared to observations for these episodes. Here, we apply the aerosol microphysics submodel MADE3 (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications, third generation) as part of the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) general circulation model. We employ two different representations of mineral dust emissions for our model simulations: (i) a prescribed monthly-mean climatology of dust emissions representative of the year 2000 and (ii) an online dust parametrization which calculates wind-driven mineral dust emissions at every model time step. We evaluate model results for these two dust representations by comparison with observations of aerosol optical depth from ground-based station data. The model results show a better agreement with the observations for strong dust burst events when using the online dust representation compared to the prescribed dust emissions setup. Furthermore, we analyse the effect of increasing the vertical and horizontal model resolution on the mineral dust properties in our model. We compare results from simulations with T42L31 and T63L31 model resolution (2.8∘×2.8∘ and 1.9∘×1.9∘ in latitude and longitude, respectively; 31 vertical levels) with the reference setup (T42L19). The different model versions are evaluated against airborne in situ measurements performed during the SALTRACE mineral dust campaign (Saharan Aerosol Long-range Transport and Aerosol-Cloud Interaction Experiment, June–July 2013), i.e. observations of dust transported from the Sahara to the Caribbean. Results show that an increased horizontal and vertical model resolution is able to better represent the spatial distribution of airborne mineral dust, especially in the upper troposphere (above 400 hPa). Additionally, we analyse the effect of varying assumptions for the size distribution of emitted dust but find only a weak sensitivity concerning these changes. The results of this study will help to identify the model setup best suited for future studies and to further improve the representation of mineral dust particles in EMAC-MADE3.

Numerical Forecasts of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Events During the Winter of 1979: Sensitivity to the Model's Horizontal Resolution and Vertical Extent

Understanding the differences between regional simulations of land-atmosphere interactions and near-surface conditions is crucial for a more reliable representation of past and future climate. Here, we explore the effect of changes in the model's horizontal resolution on the simulated energy balance at the surface and near-surface conditions using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To this aim, an ensemble of twelve simulations using three different horizontal resolutions (25 km, 50 km and 100 km) and four different Land Surface Model (LSM) configurations over North America from 1980 to 2013 is developed. Our results show that finer resolutions lead to higher surface net shortwave radiation and maximum temperatures at mid- and high latitudes. At low latitudes over coastal areas, an increase in resolution leads to lower values of sensible heat flux and higher values of latent heat flux, as well as lower values of surface temperatures and higher values of precipitation and soil moisture in summer. The use of finer resolutions leads then to an increase in summer values of latent heat flux, convective and non-convective precipitation and soil moisture at low latitudes. The effect of the LSM choice is larger than the effect of horizontal resolution on the near-surface temperature conditions. By contrast, the effect of the LSM choice on the simulation of precipitation is weaker than the effect of horizontal resolution, showing larger differences among LSM simulations in summer and over regions with high latent heat flux. Comparison between observations and the simulation of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and accumulated precipitation indicates that the CLM4 LSM yields the lowest biases in maximum and minimum mean temperatures, but the highest biases in extreme temperatures. Increasing horizontal resolution leads to larger biases in accumulated precipitation over all regions particularly in summer. The reasons behind relate the partition between convective and non-convective precipitation, specially noticeable over western US.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Understanding the differences between regional simulations of land–atmosphere interactions and near-surface conditions is crucial for a more reliable representation of past and future climate. Here, we explore the effect of changes in the model's horizontal resolution on the simulated energy balance at the surface and near-surface conditions using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To this aim, an ensemble of 12 simulations using three different horizontal resolutions (25, 50 and 100 <span class="inline-formula">km</span>) and four different land surface model (LSM) configurations over North America from 1980 to 2013 is developed. Our results show that finer resolutions lead to higher surface net shortwave radiation and maximum temperatures at mid and high latitudes. At low latitudes over coastal areas, an increase in resolution leads to lower values of sensible heat flux and higher values of latent heat flux, as well as lower values of surface temperatures and higher values of precipitation, and soil moisture in summer. The use of finer resolutions leads then to an increase in summer values of latent heat flux and convective and non-convective precipitation and soil moisture at low latitudes. The effect of the LSM choice is larger than the effect of horizontal resolution on the near-surface temperature conditions. By contrast, the effect of the LSM choice on the simulation of precipitation is weaker than the effect of horizontal resolution, showing larger differences among LSM simulations in summer and over regions with high latent heat flux. Comparison between observations and the simulation of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and accumulated precipitation indicates that the CLM4 LSM yields the lowest biases in maximum and minimum mean temperatures but the highest biases in extreme temperatures. Increasing horizontal resolution leads to larger biases in accumulated precipitation over all regions particularly in summer. The reasons behind this are related to the partition between convective and non-convective precipitation, specially noticeable over western USA.

Climate models participated in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated to reveal the impact of enhanced resolution in simulating the climatological distribution of precipitation over China. The multi-model mean (MME) of five models with 30–50 km horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (MME-50) had a better performance in reproducing the observed spatial patterns of precipitation over Northwest China and Southwest China than the MME of their lower-resolution (70–140 km) models (MME-100). Such an improvement is mainly attributed to the topographical rainfall reproduced by the higher-resolution models, which have the superiority of reproducing the local vertical circulation over the complex terrain. The MME-50 also improves the skill score of the 850-hPa southwesterly of the Indian-Burma trough relative to the MME-100, which may contribute to better simulation skill of precipitation over Southwest China. The MME-50 (0.92) has a close skill score to the MME-100 (0.91) in the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon, which explains why the MME-50 cannot improve the simulation skill of the precipitation over Southeast China and Northern China. The skill score of the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) simulated by the MME-50 is even lower than the MME-100, revealing that simulating the climate over the high plateau is still a challenge for the high-resolution models.

Climate extremes affected cities and their populations during the last decades. Future climate projections indicate climate extremes will increasingly impact urban areas during the 21st century. Humidity related fluctuations and extremes directly underpin convective processes, as well as can influence human health conditions. Regional climate models are a powerful tool to understand regional-to-local climate change processes for cities and their surroundings. Convection-permitting regional climate models, operating on very high resolutions, indicate improved simulation of convective extremes, particularly on sub-daily timescales and in regions with complex terrain such as cities. This research aims to understand how crossing spatial resolutions from ~12.5 km to ~3 km grid size affect humidity extremes and related variables under future climate change for urban areas and its surroundings. Taking Berlin and its surroundings as the case study area, the research identifies two categories of unprecedented future extreme atmospheric humidity conditions happening under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C mean warming based on statistical distributions, respectively near surface specific humidity >0.02 kg/kg and near surface relative humidity <30%. Two example cases for each future extreme condition are dynamically downscaled for a two months period from the 0.44° horizontal resolution following a double-nesting approach: first to the 0.11° (~12.5 km) horizontal resolution with the regional climate model REMO and thereafter to the 0.0275° (~3 km) horizontal resolution with the non-hydrostatic version of REMO. The findings show that crossing spatial resolutions from ~12.5 km to ~3 km grid size affects humidity extremes and related variables under climate change. Generally, a stronger decrease in moisture (up to 0.0007–0.005 kg/kg SH and 10–20% RH) and an increase in temperature (1–2 °C) is found on the 0.0275° compared to the 0.11° horizontal resolution, which is more profound in Berlin than in the surroundings. The convection-permitting scale mitigates the specific humidity moist extreme and intensifies the relative humidity dry extreme in Berlin, posing challenges with respect to health for urban dwellers.

Improving the Turbulence Coupling between High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models

Abstract. Distributed energy and mass balance snowpack models at sub-kilometric scale have emerged as a tool for snow-hydrological forecasting over large areas. However, their development and evaluation often rely on a handful of well-observed sites on flat terrain with limited topographic representativeness. Validation of such models over large scales in rugged terrain is therefore necessary. Remote sensing of wet snow has always been motivated by its potential utility in snow hydrology. However, its concrete potential to enhance physically based operational snowpack models in real time remains unproven. Wet-snow maps could potentially help refine the temporal accuracy of simulated snowmelt onset, while the information content of remotely sensed snow cover fraction (SCF) pertains predominantly to the ablation season. In this work, wet-snow maps derived from Sentinel-1 and SCF retrieval from Sentinel-2 are compared against model results from a fully distributed energy balance snow model (FSM2oshd). The comparative analysis spans the winter seasons from 2017 to 2021, focusing on the geographic region of Switzerland. We use the concept of wet-snow line (WSL) to compare Sentinel-1 wet-snow maps with simulations. We show that while the match of the model with flat-field snow depth observation is excellent, the WSL reveals a delayed snowmelt in the southern aspects. Amending the albedo parametrization within FSM2oshd allowed for the achievement of earlier melt in such aspects preferentially, thereby reducing WSL biases. Biases with respect to Sentinel-2 snow-line (SL) observations were also substantially reduced. These results suggest that wet-snow maps contain valuable real-time information for snowpack models, complementing flat-field snow depth observations well, particularly in complex terrain and at higher elevations. The persisting correlation between wet-snow-line and snow-line biases provides insights into refined development, tuning, and data assimilation methodologies for operational snow-hydrological modelling.

Modeling the timing and extent of glaciations over southeastern Tibet during the last glacial stage

Characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate models (GCMs) are known to be influenced by details of the model configurations, including horizontal resolution and parameterization schemes. Understanding model-to-model differences in TC characteristics is a prerequisite for reducing uncertainty in future TC activity projections by GCMs. This study performs a process-level examination of TC structures in eight GCM simulations that span a range of horizontal resolutions from 1° to 0.25°. A recently developed set of process-oriented diagnostics is used to examine the azimuthally averaged wind and thermodynamic structures of the GCM-simulated TCs. Results indicate that the inner-core wind structures of simulated TCs are more strongly constrained by the horizontal resolutions of the models than are the thermodynamic structures of those TCs. As expected, the structures of TC circulations become more realistic with smaller horizontal grid spacing, such that the radii of maximum wind (RMW) become smaller, and the maximum vertical velocities occur off the center. However, the RMWs are still too large, especially at higher intensities, and there are rising motions occurring at the storm centers, inconsistently with observations. The distributions of precipitation, moisture, and radiative and surface turbulent heat fluxes around TCs are diverse, even across models with similar horizontal resolutions. At the same horizontal resolution, models that produce greater rainfall in the inner-core regions tend to simulate stronger TCs. When TCs are weak, the radial gradient of net column radiative flux convergence is comparable to that of surface turbulent heat fluxes, emphasizing the importance of cloud–radiative feedbacks during the early developmental phases of TCs.

This study investigates the performance of two commonly used planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, the local turbulence closure (Mellor-Yamada-Janjić: MYJ) and the nonlocal turbulence closure (Yonsei University: YSU), over the tropical coastal region of Shenzhen, China, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The simulation results are evaluated by comparing them to various measurements. Additionally, we also investigate the performance of the PBL schemes over different land cover types and their ability to reproduce the physical relationships between several pairs of interrelated near-surface atmospheric parameters. The results show that both PBL schemes underestimate temperature and PBL height and overestimate wind speed and turbulent fluxes throughout the whole day, but this can be improved by increasing horizontal resolution. We find that the overestimation of wind speed and turbulent heat fluxes is mainly caused by the strong mechanical mixing in the model. Some improvements are required such as more accurate surface morphology parameters and momentum transport coefficients. Overall, the YSU scheme outperforms the MYJ scheme at all horizontal resolutions over complex terrain in terms of near-surface variables, PBL vertical structures, and the internal relations between turbulent heat fluxes and atmospheric instability. However, the difference between the two PBL schemes, varying over different land covers and with time periods and altitudes within the PBL, is generally greater over the land than over the sea for thermal-related variables (especially during daytime), while for variables associated with water vapor is the opposite. This highlights the importance of the underlying surface for the performance of PBL schemes and the need to select appropriate PBL schemes for simulating the evolution of PBL processes over different land covers.

The Tibetan Plateau is renowned for its complex topography and heterogeneous surface, which lead to uneven surface heating and, consequently, trigger various local circulation phenomena such as valley winds, glacier winds, and lake-land breezes. To more accurately capture these unique meteorological conditions and improve wind field simulations in complex terrain, this study introduced and compared six different boundary layer parameterization schemes to evaluate their performance in simulating the wind field in the regions of the Lake Nam Co and Mount Everest. The study utilized two three-dimensional boundary layer schemes: SMS-3DTKE and PBL3D; two variations of SMS-3DTKE&amp;#8212;one with simplified horizontal diffusion (3DTKE_smag) and another with the horizontal diffusion term completely removed (3DTKE_0); and two traditional one-dimensional boundary layer schemes: MYNN and Shin-Hong. Observed data was used to validate the simulation results. The results indicated that the two three-dimensional boundary layer schemes provided wind profiles at the Qomolangma Atmospheric and Environmental Observation and Research Station, CAS (QOMS) that closely matched observations, significantly outperforming the one-dimensional schemes. In particular, the three-dimensional schemes not only successfully simulated the near-surface wind field and the wind characteristics at 500 meters, but also explained the mechanism behind the afternoon strong winds&amp;#8212;caused by the convergence of westerly winds crossing the ridge and southwesterly winds in the Rongbuk Valley. Furthermore, the SMS-3DTKE scheme excelled in simulating the onset time and intensity of the lake breezes at the Nam Co Monitoring and Research Station for Multisphere Interactions, CAS (NAMORS), underscoring the importance of incorporating horizontal diffusion terms in local circulation simulations. These findings are crucial for improving wind field simulation accuracy under complex terrain conditions using three-dimensional boundary layer schemes and provide valuable insights for future research.

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) plays a significant role in global climate change and biodiversity conservation. As the third pole of the Earth, it has a wide range and complex terrain. QTP has a vertical distribution of vegetation, and its forest ecosystems play a key role in the region. Forest extraction in this region is still a comprehensive problem because of the phenological periods of different forest types in distinct regions of the QTP and the characteristics of frequent rain and cloudy weather in the south. Taking these factors into consideration, multiple features, including reflectance, spectral indices, statistical backscattering coefficients, topographic slope, and aspect, derived from a multisource dataset incorporating optical remote sensing data, synthetic radar, and digital elevation models, were applied to extract forest in the QTP based on the random forest (RF) classification method. As more than 30 features were involved, the 5-folded cross-validation method was used to determine the optimal parameters and features for the RF model. Using 14,919 forest samples and a multifeature optimized RF classification model, a 10-m resolution forest cover map of QTP in 2021 was generated based on the Sentinel series of satellite datasets and digital elevation model datasets on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. After verification, the overall accuracy of the forest cover map generated in this article is 98.3%, and the Kappa coefficient is 0.95, which is better than the European Space Agency (ESA) WorldCover forest layer.