Correlation of Coronal Mass Ejection Shock Temperature with Solar Energetic Particle Intensity

Based on the multiple-vantage observations of STEREO, SOHO, wind and other spacecraft, the fast and wide coronal mass ejections (CME) during the 24th solar cycle from January 2010 to September 2014 are selected in this paper. Using the outputs of Richardson’s (2014) empirical model of solar energetic particle (SEP) intensity under different conditions, the effects of its associations such as CME, pre-CME, and type II radio bursts, on SEP intensity are analyzed, and the relationship between SEP event and these characteristics is also discussed. The main conclusions are as follows. 1) The presence or absence of pre-CME within 13 h before fast CME significantly improves the model prediction effect and has a significant influence on whether fast CME produces SEP event. Compared with the events without pre-CMEs, the events with pre-CMEs have a low proportion of false alarms (FR: 47.7% <i>vs.</i> 70%). However, the number of pre-CMEs does not improve the model output. 2) CMEs with type-II radio bursts have significantly lower FR to generate SEP events than fast CMEs without type-II radio bursts (42% <i>vs.</i> 68%). And selecting type-II radio bursts as a constraint will filter out some small/weak SEP events, the relationship between model predictions and observations especially for large SEP events (e.g. <i>I</i><sub>p</sub> ≥ 0.01 pfu/MeV) will stand out. Moreover, if the type-II radio enhancement is taken into account, FR can be further reduced to 29.4%, and the proportion of hits can be further increased (HR: 48.5%), and the model prediction is significantly improved. 3) The larger the start frequency of type II radio bursts, the smaller the end frequency is, and FR decreases slightly, but at the same time, a large number of SEP events are excluded by this condition, and the results show that the constraints on the start/end frequency of type-II radio bursts do not improve the model predictions distinctly. 4) If the sub-classification of type-II radio bursts is considered as the model constraint, the CMEs associated with multi-band type-II radio bursts have better model predictions than those with single-band events. For example, m-DH-km type-II radio bursts have lower FR (35.4%) and higher HR (48%), and the accuracy of empirical model is higher. In summary, we find that in addition to the velocity and angular width of CME, the associations of pre-CME, type II radio bursts and their enhancement, and multi-band sub-classification are the favorable conditions for CME to generate SEP events. The SEP intensities obtained by the empirical model have better consistency with the observations, and better predictions can be obtained. This investigation indicates that SEP events are more likely generated by fast and wide CMEs accompanied by pre-CMEs, multi-band type II radio bursts and their enhancements, which seem to serve as discriminative signal for SEP-rich and SEP-poor CMEs.

During mid-May 2024, active region (AR) 13664 produced a series of M- and X-class flares along with several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which resulted in exceptionally strong aurora at Earth. This study presents in-situ solar energetic particle (SEP) ion composition data from STEREO-A, ACE and Parker Solar Probe (PSP) as their connectivity to AR 13664 varied throughout the great solar storm period. The observational period was between 08 to 20 May, STEREO-A was 12° longitudinally separated from ACE at 0.96 AU and the SEP intensities rose gradually as a result of several CMEs from AR 13664. Notable events for the spacecraft near Earth included a magnetic field strength jump to 88 nT and the appearance of aurora on Earth on 10 May. Additionally, on 13 May an M6 flare was followed by another SEP event with rapid onset and an estimated particle path length of 0.97 +/- 0.16 AU. PSP, set at approximately 95° longitudinal separation from Earth, was at 0.74 AU during the observational period. PSP measured a qualitatively similar gradually rising SEP intensities beginning on 11 May and continuing until the magnetic field strength rapidly increased to 100+ nT on 16 May coincident with a jump in SEP intensity. Finally, on 20 May an X16 flare from AR 13664 produced an Fe-rich SEP event. Throughout the observational period, AR 13664 produced flares and CMEs causing SEP events with Fe/O ratios that varied from

We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207‐014‐0524‐8) relating the peak intensity of 14‐ to 24‐MeV protons in a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may be used in a scheme to predict the intensity of an SEP event at any location at this heliocentric distance. Starting with all 334 CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI database in October 2011 to July 2012, we use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth and the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft using this formula. Since most (∼85%) of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many SEP events are predicted that are not actually observed. Such cases may be reduced by considering whether type II or type III radio emissions accompany the CMEs, or by selecting faster, wider CMEs. This method is also applied to predict the SEP intensities associated with ∼1,100 CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph during 1997–2006 in solar cycle 23. Various skill scores are calculated, which assess different aspects of the skill of the SEP predictions. We conclude that the Richardson et al. (2014) formula has potential as a simple empirical SEP intensity prediction tool.

Transient energetic (E> 10 MeV) particle events from the Sun have been observed at the Earth for half a century using several detection techniques. We review these observations and the change in focus from solar flares to fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and shocks as the causal agents of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. We review the properties of SEP events that are important for space weather: 1) the number distributions of peak SEP intensities and of SEP fluences; 2) the relationship of SEP intensities to CME speeds; 3) when SEP events occur during the solar cycle; and 4) where SEP events occur relative to the CME-driven shocks. We conclude with a discussion of two cases of direct negative effects of SEPs on space experiments.

To improve the forecasting capability of impactful solar energetic particle (SEP) events, the relation between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and SEP events needs to be better understood. Here we present a statistical study of SEP occurrences and timescales with respect to the CME source locations and speeds, considering all 257 fast (v CME ≥ 900 km s−1) and wide (angular width ≥60°) CMEs that occurred between 2006 December and 2017 October. We associate them with SEP events at energies above 10 MeV. Examination of the source region of each CME reveals that CMEs more often accompany a SEP event if they originate from the longitude of E20–W100 relative to the observer. However, an SEP event could still be absent if the CME is <2000 km s−1. For the associated CME–SEP pairs, we compute three timescales for each of the SEP events, namely the timescale of the onset (TO), the rise time (TR), and the duration (TD). They are correlated with the longitude of the CME source region relative to the footpoint of the Parker spiral (ΔΦ) and v CME. The TO tends to be short for 60°. This trend is weaker for TR and TD. The SEP timescales are only weakly correlated with v CME. Positive correlations of both TR and TD with v CME are seen in poorly connected (large ) events. Additionally, TO appears to be negatively correlated with v CME for events with small .

An intense type III radio storm has been disrupted by a fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) on 2000 April 4. The CME is also associated with a large solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The storm recovers after about10 hrs. We identified another CME that occurs on 2003 November 11 with similar CME properties but there is no type III storm in progress. The 2003 November 11 CME is also not associated with an SEP event above the background (less than 2 pfu), whereas the one with type III storm has an intense SEP event (about 56 pfu). One of the factors affecting the intensity of SEP events is the presence of seed particles that are accelerated by CME-driven shocks. We suggest that the type III storm source, which accelerates electrons to produce the storm, also accelerates ions that serve as seed particles to the CME shock.

: We use 20 MeV proton intensities from the EPACT instrument on Wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the LASCO coronagraph on SOHO observed during 1998-2002 to statistically determine three characteristic times of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events as functions of solar source longitude: (1) T(sub 0), the time from associated CME launch to SEP onset at 1 AU, (2) T(sub R), the rise time from SEP onset to the time when the SEP intensity is a factor of 2 below peak intensity, and (3) T(sub D), the duration over which the SEP intensity is within a factor of 2 of the peak intensity. Those SEP event times are compared with associated CME speeds, accelerations, and widths to determine whether and how the SEP event times may depend on the formation and dynamics of coronal/interplanetary shocks driven by the CMEs. Solar source longitudinal variations are clearly present in the SEP times, but T(sub R)and T(sub D) are significantly correlated with CME speeds only for SEP events in the best-connected longitude range. No significant correlations between the SEP times and CME accelerations are found except for T(sub D) in one longitude range, but there is a weak correlation of T(sub R) and T(sub D) with CME widths. We also find no correlation of any SEP times with the solar wind O(exp +6)/O(exp +7) values, suggesting no dependence on solar wind stream type. The SEP times of the small subset of events occurring in interplanetary CMEs may be slightly shorter than those of all events.

This study is based on proton flux data from ESA’s Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modeling database, analyzing solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed near Earth from 1976 to 2017. We have matched these events with corresponding solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to create a comprehensive list of SEP events spanning almost four solar cycles. Using this list, we conduct a statistical analysis of the flare–SEP correlation and SEP timing information. Our findings confirm that SEP events recorded at 1 au are more commonly associated with flares occurring in the western hemisphere of the Sun’s surface. Moreover, we develop an empirical model relating the SEP proton peak flux to the characteristics of flares and CMEs, which works particularly effectively for SEP events triggered by eastern flares. We also verify that flares with higher intensity are more likely to produce SEP events up to higher energies, such as those detected above 100 MeV. In this energy range, more than half of the SEP events are triggered by X-class flares. Finally, we introduce an empirical model that uses the flare longitude to predict the timing of the SEP peak flux, especially for intense flare events. These models can aid in mitigating particle radiation risks for space missions.

The dosimeter Liulin-MO for measuring the radiation environment on board the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) is a module in the Fine Resolution Epithermal Neutron Detector (FREND). A number of solar energetic particle (SEP) events were observed in Mars orbit from July 2021 to 2024 during the increasing phase and close to the maximum of the 25th solar cycle activity. The results from the SEPs measurements obtained in 2021-2023 by Liulin-MO have been previously reported. Here we present the Liulin-MO results from the observation of the radiation parameters of the SEP events during January- October 2024. The most powerful SEP event registered up to now in TGO orbit started on 20 May 2024. The maximum dose rate during this SEP event has been 2800 ± 280 µGy h-1 and the maximum particle flux - 383 ± 19 cm-2 s-1. The total event lasted for about 64 hours up to 24 May with a long tail of increased dose rates and fluxes. The total dose from SEPs for the 64 hours of the main phase of the SEP event was 24.7 ± 2.5 mGy. The total dose from SEPs during this event is equal to the dose from the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) received for about 200 days at this phase of solar cycle 25. The total dose from all SEPs during January - September 2024 is 36.6 mGy (in Si), which is approximately equal to the dose received from GCR for the same period. The observations of SEPs in Mars orbit are compared to the observations during the same periods of proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellite in Earth orbit. The results show that some of the SEPs observed in Mars orbit, excluding the biggest SEP events of 20-24 May and 05-07 September, are also seen in the GOES proton fluxes data. SEP events recorded both in Mars and Earth orbits are related to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The paper shows that responsible for most of the SEP events registered both in the Liulin-MO data and in the GOES proton fluxes data are halo CMEs. The paper also shows that the sources of the three most powerful SEP events in Mars orbit - those of 20 May, 23 July and 05 September - are halo CMEs from the far side of the Sun. Some of these CMEs are associated with major X class far-side flares. Long-term investigations of the GCRs radiation parameters in Mars orbit show that in August 2024 (the last month of our data with no recorded SEP events) the dose rate was 6.5 ± 0.65 µGy h-1 and the particle flux - 1.4 ± 0.07 cm-2 s-1. These values are about 40 % of the corresponding maximal values measured by Liulin-MO during the solar cycle 24 minimum in March 2020. The above results show the importance of long-term measurements (at least during a full solar cycle) of the radiation conditions in Mars vicinity. Such measurements will make it possible to obtain the data necessary for the planning of future manned and robotic missions, as well as for the selection of the best time interval in the solar cycle for a manned flight to the planet.

Evidence for two different physical mechanisms for acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEPs) arose 50 years ago with radio observations of type III bursts, produced by outward streaming electrons, and type II bursts from coronal and interplanetary shock waves. Since that time we have found that the former are related to "impulsive" SEP events from impulsive flares or jets. Here, resonant stochastic acceleration, related to magnetic reconnection involving open field lines, produces not only electrons but 1000-fold enhancements of 3He/4He and of (Z>50)/O. Alternatively, in "gradual" SEP events, shock waves, driven out from the Sun by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), more democratically sample ion abundances that are even used to measure the coronal abundances of the elements. Sometimes residual impulsive suprathermal ions contribute to the seed population for shock acceleration, complicating the abundance picture, but this process has now been modeled theoretically. Initially, impulsive events define a point source on the Sun, selectively filling few magnetic flux tubes, while gradual events show broad acceleration that can fill half of the inner heliosphere, beginning when the shock reaches ~2 solar radii. Shock acceleration occurs as ions are scattered back and forth across the shock by resonant Alfven waves amplified by the accelerated protons themselves. These waves also can produce a streaming-limited maximum SEP intensity and plateau region upstream of the shock. Behind the shock lies the large expanse of the "reservoir", a spatially extensive trapped volume of uniform SEP intensities with invariant energy-spectral shapes where overall intensities decrease with time as the enclosing "magnetic bottle" expands adiabatically. These reservoirs now explain the slow intensity decrease that defines gradual events, once erroneously attributed solely to slow outward diffusion.

Context. On 2022 January 20, the Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) on board Solar Orbiter measured a solar energetic particle (SEP) event showing unusual first arriving particles from the anti-Sun direction. Near-Earth spacecraft separated by 17° in longitude to the west of Solar Orbiter measured classic anti-sunward-directed fluxes. STEREO-A and MAVEN, separated by 18° to the east and by 143° to the west of Solar Orbiter, respectively, also observed the event, suggesting that particles spread over at least 160° in the heliosphere. Aims. The aim of the present study is to investigate how SEPs are accelerated and transported towards Solar Orbiter and near-Earth spacecraft, as well as to examine the influence of a magnetic cloud (MC) present in the heliosphere at the time of the event onset on the propagation of energetic particles. Methods. We analysed remote-sensing data, including flare, coronal mass ejection (CME), and radio emission to identify the parent solar source of the event. We investigated energetic particles, solar wind plasma, and magnetic field data from multiple spacecraft. Results. Solar Orbiter was embedded in a MC erupting on 16 January from the same active region as that related to the SEP event on 20 January. The SEP event is related to a M5.5 flare and a fast CME-driven shock of ∼1433 km s−1, which accelerated and injected particles within and outside the MC. Taken together, the hard SEP spectra, the presence of a Type II radio burst, and the co-temporal Type III radio burst being observed from 80 MHz that appears to emanate from the Type II burst, suggest that the shock is likely the main accelerator of the particles. Conclusions. Our detailed analysis of the SEP event strongly suggests that the energetic particles are mainly accelerated by a CME-driven shock and are injected into and outside of a previous MC present in the heliosphere at the time of the particle onset. The sunward-propagating SEPs measured by Solar Orbiter are produced by the injection of particles along the longer (western) leg of the MC still connected to the Sun at the time of the release of the particles. The determined electron propagation path length inside the MC is around 30% longer than the estimated length of the loop leg of the MC itself (based on the graduated cylindrical shell model), which is consistent with the low number of field line rotations.

Large solar eruptive events, including solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), can lead to solar energetic particle (SEP) events. During these events, protons are accelerated up to several GeV and pose numerous space weather risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, radiation hazards to astronauts and disruption to satellites and electronics. The highest energy SEPs are capable of reaching Earth on timescales of minutes and can be detected in ground level enhancements (GLEs). Understanding and analyzing these events is critical to future forecasting models. However, the availability of high energy SEP data sets is limited, especially that which covers multiple solar cycles. The majority of analysis of SEP events considers data at energies <100 MeV. In this work, we use a newly calibrated data set using data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite‐high energy proton and alpha detector between 1984 and 2017. Analysis of the SEP events in this time period over three high energy channels is performed, and SEP properties are compared to flare and CME parameters. In addition, neutron monitor (NM) observations are examined for the relevant GLE events. We find that correlations between SEP peak intensity and the CME speed are much weaker than for lower SEP energies. Correlations with flare intensity are broadly similar or weaker. Strong correlations are seen between >300 MeV data and GLE properties from NM data. The results of our work can be utilized in future forecasting models for both high energy SEP and GLE events.

Large solar energetic particles (SEPs) can cause adverse space weather hazards to human technology, and such events are especially associated with halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). But in turn, a significant portion of halo CMEs are not associated with large SEPs. The objective of this study is to gain an understanding of the source region distinctions between halo CMEs in SEP and non-SEP events. Among the 176 halo CMEs observed from 2010 to 2024, we screen out 45 large SEP events and 131 non-SEP events from this data set. It is revealed that CME speed is a good discriminator between SEP and non-SEP events. Through classifying the source regions of all the halo CMEs, we find that 53% of SEP events originate from “single AR (active region),” and 47% from “multiple ARs” or “outside of ARs.” The corresponding proportion for non-SEP events is 70% and 30%. This suggests that SEP source regions are more likely to originate from large-scale sources. We have also calculated the relevant magnetic parameters of the source regions and found that SEP source regions have higher magnetic free energy and reconnection flux compared to non-SEP source regions. However, SEP source regions are smaller in terms of the intensive magnetic parameters such as mean characteristic magnetic twist α and mean shear angles. Our statistical results can provide new potential variables for forecasting SEPs.

Forecasting large Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events associated with\nshocks driven by fast coronal mass ejections (CME) pose a major difficulty in\nthe field of Space Weather. Besides issues associated with CME initiation, the\nSEP intensities are difficult to predict, spanning 3 orders of magnitude at any\ngiven CME speed. Many lines of indirect evidence point to the pre-existence of\nsuprathermal seed particles for injection into the acceleration process as a\nkey ingredient limiting the SEP intensity of a given event. This paper outlines\nthe observational and theoretical basis for the inference that a suprathermal\nparticle population is present prior to large SEP events, explores various\nscenarios for generating seed particles and their observational signatures, and\nexplains how such suprathermals could be detected through measuring the wings\nof the H I Ly-alpha line.\n

On 2022 January 20, the Energetic Particle Detector on board Solar Orbiter detected a solar energetic particle (SEP) event showing unusual sunward-directed fluxes. Near-Earth spacecraft separated by 17° in longitude from Solar Orbiter measured classic antisunward-directed fluxes. Parker Solar Probe and MAVEN, separated by 130° and 216° respectively from Solar Orbiter, observed the particle event as well, suggesting a widespread event of nearly 360° in the heliosphere. The SEP event was associated with an M5-class X-ray flare and a CME with a speed of 1400 km/s. The energetic particles reached 3 MeV and 100 MeV energies for electrons and protons, respectively.The aim of this study is to disentangle how the particles are able to spread throughout the heliosphere and how the local heliospheric conditions affect the acceleration and transport of the particles at different spacecraft locations. This work presents the observations and analyses that lead to a scenario in which the solar source injected energetic particles into the solar wind and within a preceding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) that was already present in the heliosphere at the time of the SEP event onset. In particular, Solar Orbiter measured the particles injected along the longest leg of an ICME still connected to the Sun at the time of the particle release.