Data Reconciliation–Based Traffic Count Analysis System

Annual average daily traffic (AADT) serves the important basic data in transportation sector. Despite of its importance, AADT is estimated through permanent traffic counts (PTC) at limited locations because of constraints in budget and so on. At most of locations, AADT is estimated using short-term traffic counts (STC). Though many studies have been carried out at home and abroad in an effort to enhance the accuracy of AADT estimate, the method to simplify average STC data has been adopted because of application difficulty. A typical model for estimating AADT is an adjustment factor application model which applies the monthly or weekly adjustment factors at PTC points (or group) with similar traffic pattern. But this model has the limit in determining the PTC points (or group) with similar traffic pattern with STC. Because STC represents usually 24-hour or 48-hour data, it`s difficult to forecast a 365-day traffic variation. In order to improve the accuracy of traffic volume prediction, this study used the geostatistical approach called co-kriging and according to their reports. To compare results, using 3 methods : using adjustment factor in same section(method 1), using grouping method to apply adjustment factor(method 2), cokriging model using previous year`s traffic data which is in a high spatial correlation with traffic volume data as a secondary variable. This study deals with estimating AADT considering time and space so AADT estimation is more reliable comparing other research.

Reliable estimates of heavy-truck volumes in the United States are important in a number of transportation applications including pavement design and management, traffic safety, and traffic operations. Additionally, because heavy vehicles emit pollutants at much higher rates than passenger vehicles, reliable volume estimates are critical to computing accurate inventories of on-road emissions. Accurate baseline inventories are also necessary to forecast future scenarios. The research presented in this paper evaluated three different methods commonly used by transportation agencies to estimate annual average daily traffic (AADT), which is used to determine vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Traffic data from continuous count stations provided by the Iowa Department of Transportation were used to estimate AADT for single-unit and multiunit trucks for rural freeways and rural primary highways using the three methods. The first method developed general expansion factors, which apply to all vehicles. AADT, representing all vehicles, was estimated for short-term counts and was multiplied by statewide average truck volumes for the corresponding roadway type to obtain AADT for each truck category. The second method also developed general expansion factors and AADT estimates. Truck AADT for the second method was calculated by multiplying the general AADT by truck volumes from the short-term counts. The third method developed expansion factors specific to each truck group. AADT estimates for each truck group were estimated from short-term counts using corresponding expansion factors. Accuracy of the three methods was determined by comparing actual AADT from count station data to estimates from the three methods. Accuracy of the three methods was compared using n-fold cross-validation. Mean squared error of prediction was used to estimate the difference between estimated and actual AADT. Prediction error was lowest for the method that developed separate expansion factors for trucks. Implications for emissions estimation using the different methods are also discussed.

Traffic monitoring agencies collect traffic data samples to estimate annual average daily traffic (AADT) at short duration count sites. The steps to estimate AADT from sample data introduce error that manifests as uncertainty in the AADT statistic and its applications. Past research suggests that the assignment of a short duration count site to a traffic pattern group (TPG), characterized by known traffic periodicities, represents a significant but poorly quantified source of error. This paper presents an approach to quantify the range of errors arising from such assignments and to mitigate these errors using a novel data-driven assignment method. The approach uses simulated 48-hour short duration counts sampled from continuous count sites with known AADT to develop a benchmark of the total error expected when AADT is estimated from such samples. Likewise, the analysis produces a set of AADT estimates using temporal factors from pre-defined TPGs to quantify the range of assignment errors. The data-driven assignment method aims to mitigate these errors by minimizing the absolute mean deviation in AADT estimates produced from multiple short duration counts in a single year. The approach is applied to traffic data collected in Manitoba, Canada, as a case study. The results indicate that the mean absolute error from 48-hour short duration counts is 6.40% of the true AADT and that improper assignment can lead to a range in mean absolute errors of 9%. When applied to previously unassigned sites, the data-driven assignment method reduced mean absolute errors from 10.32%, using a conventional assignment method, to 7.86%.

**Traffic increases have made road infrastructure construction difficult for transport planners and operators, risking pavement collapse or resource waste. Egyptian roads have deteriorated due to traffic loads, requiring periodic maintenance and reconstruction. Traffic data is scarce in developing countries like Egypt, making these analyses difficult. This study estimates traffic growth rates across the country using 2008–2018 Egyptian data to address traffic forecasting difficulties. Annual average daily traffic (AADT), population density, and other socioeconomic variables are used in regression analysis to estimate traffic increases. The AADT socio-economic relationship was substantial, with adjusted R2 values from 0.74 to 0.99. Comparing predicted traffic to last year's traffic data at each station in the research showed appropriate results for the proposed models. AADT error rates for proposed models and true values were 0.00–0.025. Thus, traffic growth rate data can improve and develop new roads in such regions. These findings enhance planning accuracy for future projects.

Background: The annual average daily traffic (AADT) data from road segments are critical for roadway projects, especially with the decision-making processes about operations, travel demand, safety-performance evaluation, and maintenance. Regular updates help to determine traffic patterns for decision-making. Unfortunately, the luxury of having permanent recorders on all road segments, especially low-volume roads, is virtually impossible. Consequently, insufficient AADT information is acquired for planning and new developments. A growing number of statistical, mathematical, and machine-learning algorithms have helped estimate AADT data values accurately, to some extent, at both sampled and unsampled locations on low-volume roadways. In some cases, roads with no representative AADT data are resolved with information from roadways with similar traffic patterns. Methods: This study adopted an integrative approach with a combined systematic literature review (SLR) and meta-analysis (MA) to identify and to evaluate the performance, the sources of error, and possible advantages and disadvantages of the techniques utilized most for estimating AADT data. As a result, an SLR of various peer-reviewed articles and reports was completed to answer four research questions. Results: The study showed that the most frequent techniques utilized to estimate AADT data on low-volume roadways were regression, artificial neural-network techniques, travel-demand models, the traditional factor approach, and spatial interpolation techniques. These AADT data-estimating methods' performance was subjected to meta-analysis. Three studies were completed: R squared, root means square error, and mean absolute percentage error. The meta-analysis results indicated a mixed summary effect: 1. all studies were equal; 2. all studies were not comparable. However, the integrated qualitative and quantitative approach indicated that spatial-interpolation (Kriging) methods outperformed the others. Conclusions: Spatial-interpolation methods may be selected over others to generate accurate AADT data by practitioners at all levels for decision making. Besides, the resulting cross-validation statistics give statistics like the other methods' performance measures.

Background: The annual average daily traffic (AADT) data from road segments are critical for roadway projects, especially with the decision-making processes about operations, travel demand, safety-performance evaluation, and maintenance. Regular updates help to determine traffic patterns for decision-making. Unfortunately, the luxury of having permanent recorders on all road segments, especially low-volume roads, is virtually impossible. Consequently, insufficient AADT information is acquired for planning and new developments. A growing number of statistical, mathematical, and machine-learning algorithms have helped estimate AADT data values accurately, to some extent, at both sampled and unsampled locations on low-volume roadways. In some cases, roads with no representative AADT data are resolved with information from roadways with similar traffic patterns. Methods: This study adopted an integrative approach with a combined systematic literature review (SLR) and meta-analysis (MA) to identify and to evaluate the performance, the sources of error, and possible advantages and disadvantages of the techniques utilized most for estimating AADT data. As a result, an SLR of various peer-reviewed articles and reports was completed to answer four research questions. Results: The study showed that the most frequent techniques utilized to estimate AADT data on low-volume roadways were regression, artificial neural-network techniques, travel-demand models, the traditional factor approach, and spatial interpolation techniques. These AADT data-estimating methods’ performance was subjected to meta-analysis. Three studies were completed: R squared, root means square error, and mean absolute percentage error. The meta-analysis results indicated a mixed summary effect: 1. all studies were equal; 2. all studies were not comparable. However, the integrated qualitative and quantitative approach indicated that spatial-interpolation (Kriging) methods outperformed the others. Conclusions: Spatial-interpolation methods may be selected over others to generate accurate AADT data by practitioners at all levels for decision making. Besides, the resulting cross-validation statistics give statistics like the other methods' performance measures.

SUMMARYNetwork traffic monitoring and analysis are essential for effective network operation and resource management. In particular, multidimensional analysis for long‐term traffic data is necessary for comprehensive understanding of the traffic trend and effective quality‐of‐service provision considering the extremely dynamic behavior of the current Internet, where various types of traffic occur from high‐speed network links and greatly increasing number of applications. However, only limited analysis results are provided, as the existing network traffic analysis tools and systems are developed and deployed focusing on their own specialized analysis purposes. Consequently, it is difficult to understand the network comprehensively and deeply, which increases the necessity for multilateral analysis of long‐term traffic data. In this paper, we propose a novel traffic analysis model for large volumes of Internet traffic accumulated over a long period of time. TheNetCube, the proposed network traffic analysis model using online analytical processing (OLAP) on a multidimensional data cube, provides an easy and fast way to construct a multidimensional traffic analysis system for comprehensive and detailed analysis of long‐term traffic data by utilizing simple OLAP operations and powerful data‐mining techniques on various abstraction levels of traffic data to complete the analysis purpose. We validate the feasibility and applicability of the proposedNetCubetraffic analysis model by implementing a traffic analysis system and applying it to our campus network. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of Using Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) with Exogenous Factors to Predict Daily Traffic

Skid resistance, or friction, on a road surface is a critical parameter in functional highway assessments, given its direct relationships with safety and accident frequency. Therefore, road administrations must collect friction data across their road networks to ensure safe roads for users. In addition, having a predictive model of skid resistance for each road section is essential for an efficient pavement management system (PMS). Traditionally, road authorities disregard rural roads, since they are more focused on freeways and traffic-intense roads. This study develops a model for predicting minimum-available skid resistance, which occurs in summer, measured using the Sideway-force Coefficient Routine Investigation Machine (SCRIM), on bituminous pavements in the single-carriageway road network of the Province of Gipuzkoa, Spain. To this end, traffic volume data available in the PMS of the Provincial Council of Gipuzkoa, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT) and the AADT of heavy vehicles (AADT.HV), were uniquely used to forecast skid-resistance values collected in summer. Additionally, a methodology for eliminating outliers is proposed. Despite the simplicity of the model, which does not include information about the materials at the surface layer, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.439 was achieved. This model can help road authorities identify the roads for which lower skid-resistance values are most likely to occur, allowing them to focus their attention and efforts on these roads, which are key infrastructure in rural areas.

An Impact study of highway design on casualty and non-casualty traffic accidents

This paper focuses on the application of the principle of demographic gravitation to estimate link-level annual average daily traffic (AADT) based on land-use characteristics. According to the principle, the effect of a variable on AADT of a link decreases with an increase in distance from the link. The spatial variations in land-use characteristics were captured and integrated for each study link using the principle of demographic gravitation. The captured land-use characteristics and on-network characteristics were used as independent variables. Traffic count data available from the permanent count stations in the city of Charlotte, North Carolina, were used as the dependent variable to develop statistical and neural network models. Negative binomial count statistical models (with log-link) were developed as data were observed to be over-dispersed while neural network models were developed based on a multilayered, feed-forward, back-propagation design for supervised learning. The results obtained indicate that statistical and neural network models ensured significantly lower errors when compared to outputs from traditional four-step method used by regional modelers. Overall, the neural network model yielded better results in estimating AADT than any other approach considered in this research. The neural network approach can be particularly suitable for their better predictive capability, whereas the statistical models could be used for mathematical formulation or understanding the role of explanatory variables in estimating AADT.

Road safety modelers frequently use average annual daily traffic (AADT) as a measure of exposure in regression models of expected crash frequency for road segments and intersections. Recorded AADT values at most locations are estimated by state and local transportation agencies with significant uncertainty, often by extrapolating short-term traffic counts over time and space. This uncertainty in the traffic volume estimates, often termed in a modeling context as measurement error in right-hand-side variables, can have serious effects on model estimation, including: 1) biased regression coefficient estimates; and 2) increases in dispersion. The structure and magnitude of measurement error in AADT estimates are not clearly understood by researchers or practitioners, leading to difficulties in explicitly accounting for this error in statistical road safety models, and ultimately in finding solutions for its correction. This study explores the impacts of measurement error in traffic volume estimates on statistical road safety models by employing measurement error correction approaches, including regression calibration and simulation extrapolation. The concept is demonstrated using crash, traffic, and roadway data from rural, two-lane horizontal curves in the State of Washington. The overall results show that the regression coefficient estimates with a positive coefficient were larger and those with a negative coefficient were smaller (i.e., more negative) when the measurement error correction methods were applied to the regression models of expected crash frequency. Future directions in applications of measurement error correction approaches to road safety research are provided.

This paper presents results of a safety analysis of a freeway managed-lane strategy, that is, a time-of-day managed-lane strategy that concurrently allows use of the inner left lanes by high-occupancy vehicles (HOVs) and use of right shoulders as general purpose travel lanes during peak hours. Recent 3-year crash data and corresponding annual average daily traffic (AADT) volumes and lane-type-specific AADT volumes were identified for various lane types, including the inner left lanes for HOV only use during peak hours, general purpose lanes, right shoulder lanes, and all lanes as a whole. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the effect of this traffic operations system and other factors relevant to crash frequency. The negative binomial regression model analyses present no evidence that the interest factors, including the managed-lane strategy during peak hours, AADT volumes, merging and diverging influence areas, weather, light conditions, and existence of pull-off areas, affect the crash frequency when aggregated across all lanes. The variable AADT volumes in the specific analysis of general purpose lanes appear to be significant and show about a 2% increase in weekday crashes for each increase of 1,000 vehicles per day in the AADT range of 50,000 to 83,000 vehicles per day. Right shoulder specific analysis shows that motorist behaviors at the merge and diverge areas during adverse light conditions are significant and shows an increase of about 38% in crashes in these areas. The managed-lane strategy does not appear to be significant to the crash frequency in the inner left lanes for HOV, general purpose lanes, or right shoulders.

This paper describes annual average daily traffic (AADT) forecasting for the Lithuanian highways using a forecasting method used by Idaho Department for Transportation, growth factor, linear regression and multiple regression. AADT forecasts obtained using these methods are compared with the forecasts evaluated by traffic experts and given in references. The results show that the best Lithuanian traffic data are obtained using Idaho forecasting method. It is assumed that the curve of AADT change should be exponential in the future.

Traffic count stations play a key role in measuring roadway characteristics and traffic performance by collecting and monitoring travel behavior and vehicle data. Continuous counting stations (CCSs), which count traffic volumes continuously throughout the year, are used to develop seasonal adjustment factors to convert short-term traffic counts (average daily traffic) to annual average daily traffic (AADT). As data collection is conducted at limited locations, many state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) group the CCSs based on different traffic patterns and estimate the AADT at specific locations by considering seasonal adjustment factors. Computer-based clustering approaches are widely used in grouping continuous traffic data for their accuracy in traffic pattern recognition. However, most of the clustering techniques do not consider the spatial constraints and therefore overlooked the locational proximity and inference from nearby traffic data. In this study, a GIS-based multivariate spatial clustering approach was developed to recognize statewide traffic patterns based on temporal and spatial variables. A total of 12 optimal clusters were automatically computed and labeled based on the proposed clustering algorithm. The proposed clustering approach was compared and validated based on machine learning classifiers. The results showed that it outperformed the traditional Michigan DOT clustering approach and was consistent in nature across different years. The model was applied to estimate the AADT, and good accuracy was detected relative to other approaches. The proposed clustering method offers a new approach to group traffic patterns by simultaneously incorporating proximity and similarity of traffic data.