Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

Majority of social and economic problems of Ukraine’s agrarian sphere can not be solved without formation of partner relationships and constructive dialogue between the state and private business. The formation of partner relationship models opens up new possibilities and provides certain advantages for participators’ agreement. The aim of the research is to analyze the current state of implementation of public-private partnership projects and determine the main ways for PPP development in Ukraine. In the article reveals the historical aspect of public-private partnership (PPP) development between the state and private participator in different countries of the world. The current state of development, the features of the constructive interaction between state bodies and business in solving of long-term socially important tasks of social and economic development are analyzed. The expediency of developing partnership between state and business is grounded. The main factors of negative influence on the effectiveness of PPP projects implementation in agrarian sphere are identifed . The main models of private business participation in the accomplishment of investment projects in agro-industrial production are considered and their main features are determined. It is proven that implementation of PPP projects promotes the effective management of state and municipal property objects and the creation of conditions for use of new technologies and innovation, etc. The high efciency of PPP mechanism as a form of interaction between state and business has been proven by the experience of many countries around the world. Thus, public-private partnership needs to be developed in our country to solve signifcant social and economic problems through combining the resources of public and private sectors. To do this, it is necessary to overcome a number of legislative, political, economic and institutional barriers that hinder the PPP development. The study generalizes the world practice of using of the PPP mechanism in agriculture and determines the main priority directions of PPP project implementation in agro-industrial production and rural areas of Ukraine. These include: construction, maintenance and management of wholesale markets of agricultural production; development of infrastructure of agrarian market; development of production infrastructure, agricultural waste processing; irrigation systems construction, operation and management; construction, exploitation and management of social infrastructure objects in rural areas. The study reveals that PPP in Ukraine develops very slowly, the level of PPP project accomplishment is low, the number of implemented projects is minimal and its effectiveness is low because of legal and economic obstacles for doing business. The problem is not so much the low number number of concluded agreement between the state and the private partner, but rather the effectiveness and efciency of their implementation. Key words: public-private partnership, agrarian sector, PPP projects, forms of PPP, state, private partner, innovation development, agreement.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to identify driving factors and a quantitative model for implementing public-private partnership (PPP) projects in Ethiopia as a case study in emerging economies.Design/methodology/approachA review of the literature and semi-structured interviews were carried out to identify driving factors affecting the implementation of PPP projects in the Ethiopian context. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey within three months, with 59 validated responses; mean score technique and factor analysis were conducted. The fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) method was applied to develop a driving index (DI) for implementing infrastructure PPP projects. Finally, a comparative analysis of top-five drivers was conducted between four emerging economies.FindingsMean values show that all driving variables are important. Through factor analysis, 22 identified driving variables were grouped into six factors, namely, benefit for public and private sectors, attention of private sector, social development, cost reduction, management ability of public sector and ability of private sector. The FSE method constructs a DI and shows that benefit for public and private sectors is the most crucial factor for PPP implementation in the context of Ethiopia. Apart from this, most driving forces for adopting PPP projects in these countries related to financial problems.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first integrate driving factors for PPP implementation. The index provides the decision-makers with a comprehensive tool to assess the needs of PPP implementation.

Trends in National and Regional Investors Financing Crossborder Infrastructure Projects in Asia

As the fundamental part of other Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) applications, short-term traffic volume prediction plays an important role in various intelligent transportation tasks, such as traffic management, traffic signal control and route planning. Although Neural-network-based traffic prediction methods can produce good results, most of the models can’t be explained in an intuitive way. In this paper, we not only proposed a model that increase the short-term prediction accuracy of the traffic volume, but also improved the interpretability of the model by analyzing the internal attention score learnt by the model. we propose a spatiotemporal attention mechanism-based multistep traffic volume prediction model (SAMM). Inside the model, an LSTM-based Encoder-Decoder network with a hybrid attention mechanism is introduced, which consists of spatial attention and temporal attention. In the first level, the local and global spatial attention mechanisms considering the micro traffic evolution and macro pattern similarity, respectively, are applied to capture and amplify the features from the highly correlated entrance stations. In the second level, a temporal attention mechanism is employed to amplify the features from the time steps captured as contributing more to the future exit volume. Considering the time-dependent characteristics and the continuity of the recent evolutionary traffic volume trend, the timestamp features and historical exit volume series of target stations are included as the external inputs. An experiment is conducted using data from the highway toll collection system of Guangdong Province, China. By extracting and analyzing the weights of the spatial and temporal attention layers, the contributions of the intermediate parameters are revealed and explained with knowledge acquired by historical statistics. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art model by 29.51% in terms of MSE, 13.93% in terms of MAE, and 5.69% in terms of MAPE. The effectiveness of the Encoder-Decoder framework and the attention mechanism are also verified.

The Government of Indonesia was committed to encouraging public-private partnership (PPP) schemes to address gaps in infrastructure development. But not all projects offered through the PPP scheme have a high degree of eligibility because the project is a long-term investment with a considerable degree of risk challenge. Efforts to improve the feasibility of investing in toll road PPP projects were made such as investment guarantees and incentives for the private sector. This study is a continuation of previous research that was an implementation of the incentive system in PPP project contract to increase investment feasibility. In this study, the authors want to obtain a general description of:(1) Existing condition of research location and land use based on Local Regulation around Bali Mandara Highway (Field Observation and Local Regulation), (2) To know the wishes of the people around Highway in a location that allows applied spatial use incentive system (Interview Method), (3) Assessing the spatial plan at the foot of the toll road regarding spatial use plan with guidance on incentives and density utilization of space on the highway (method of cropping the map). From the result of the research, it can be seen the general description of the people's desire to play a role in the utilization of space around the Nusa Dua toll, where the results of satellite image analysis and the spatial regulation on spatial planning allow the availability of land for spatial use activities around highway about 10 hectares. Keywords: highway, KPS, spatial, use of space

Examining the interrelationships among critical success factors (CSFs) for public private partnership (PPP) projects is of importance for improving PPP project performance and maintaining the sustainability of PPP project implementation. Previous studies mostly focused on the identification of the CSFs for PPP projects; limited studies investigated the interrelationships among CSFs. Hence, the research objectives are (a) to determine the interrelationships among CSFs of PPP projects taking into account the public and (b) to identify influence paths contributing to take advantage of CSFs in the process of PPP implementation. A literature review and expert interviews were adopted to construct the CSFs framework; nine hypotheses were constructed and tested by the structural equation modelling (SEM) based on the data collected from a questionnaire survey. This research reveals that the relationship between public and private partners is the leader-follower relationship, not the partnership relationship, in PPP projects, indicating that the responsibilities, power or resources existing among partners are very unequal. It also highlights that public involvement has a negative effect on the process of service provisions, and costs and risks exist in the process of public involvement in PPP projects. The determined interrelationships among CSFs will contribute to the sustainability and success of a PPP project.

The introduction of Public-private Partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure provision has changed the way in which governments around the world now view infrastructure provision. However, the introduction of PPPs to deliver infrastructure has not benefited the broader public. Although SMEs are important for employment creation, inequality and poverty reduction, the participation of SMEs (small and medium enterprises) in PPP projects is very low in developing countries. This is because PPP models in developing countries are developed based on those used in developed economies, and such models ignore the socioeconomic realities facing developing countries. The objective of this study is therefore to demonstrate that PPP projects in developing countries present an opportunity for growing the SME sector and create the needed jobs and contribute to poverty alleviation. The study has found that PPP projects have the potential to develop a sustainable SME sector, as it has found that SMEs do participate in PPP projects; however, their participation is curtailed by a number of challenges such as: lack of access to finance, limited human resources, low technological capabilities, and lack of access to markets. It also found that linking SMEs to PPP projects may address some of these challenges to a certain extent, especially if SMEs provide services to PPP projects during both the implementation and the operational phases of PPP projects. It also found that PPPs have not yet been identified by the South African government as one of the initiatives that can facilitate SME development. Most focus on PPP projects is only on ensuring that they include ownership by previously disadvantaged South Africans. The study recommends that a policy be developed that will incentivise PPP firms to use SMEs in their projects and penalise those PPP firms that fail to comply with the policy imperatives. It went on and found that the different South African government institutional initiatives or frameworks to support SMEs seem to be adequate; however, what is needed is a cohesive approach that links all these initiatives together and ensures that they support one another.

This study presents considerations for the provision of social services in the form of public-private partnerships in each region of South Korea. After identifying which local governments provide social services in the form of public-private partnerships I investigated how the public and private sectors that provide these services perceive such partnerships. To this end, in-depth interviews were conducted on public servants and workers in private welfare centers in Gangdong-gu, Seoul; Nam-gu, Busan; Jangseong-gun, Jeollanam-do Province; and Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do Province, focusing on the Community Associations of Social Welfare, Hope Welfare Supporters, Dong as a Hub of Welfare project, and Public-Private Partnership cases. The results of my analysis reveal that it is necessary to adopt a two-track approach by distinguishing between “finding” and “supporting” those in need of help in order to effectively provide social services. Furthermore, the task of providing social services to people with diverse needs cannot be done solely by the public or private sector; rather, cooperation between both is necessary. In particular, this study found that local public servants must perceive public-private partnerships more positively.

Shortage in funds after the declining in oil prices since 2014, made Iraq government encourage private sector engagement in financing infrastructure projects through PPP. However, private sector reluctance was notable. Therefore, this research is conducted to assess if Iraq is a supportive environment for PPP projects development. 25 risk factors of PPP projects have been listed and organized within a questionnaire that was conducted with a participation of 98 respondents from public, private institutions and academics. Means comparison was used to rank and identify respondent agreement on assessing the level of importance of these risk factors, also nonparametric tests were used. Findings indicated that all respondents groups have agreed on ranking corruption on the top of barriers that government should deal with to ensure the success of PPP projects. Afterward scarcity of private funds came in the first place followed by insufficient public administration processes and then by the lack of legal framework followed by the delays in acquisition of land and while the lack of sovereign guarantee came at the fifth place. The perceptions of survey groups' respondents concerning the importance of risk factors differ , where both public and academics respondents have serious concerns regarding the private sector capacity to carry out the task and the availability of private funds. On the other hand the private sector concerns the availability of government incentives to support for infrastructure PPP projects. Overall findings indicated that government must work on building a solid enabling environment before the initiation of PPP approach in Iraq.

The purpose of the research. The article discusses the public-private partnership (PPP) projects as an important tool for attracting private sector resources to enhance the efficiency and quality of emergency response. It analyzes the extent to which tax incentives influence the financial decisions of corporations and investment returns in the context of regions in China. The purpose of the research is to identify the role of tax benefits in stimulating the use of PPP projects for managing emergencies. It presents specific cases where tax incentives were utilized to recover participating in PPP projects enterprises during the pandemic. Results. The research revealed that the provision of tax incentives has had a positive impact on PPP projects. This is achieved through the reduction of financial burdens on enterprises, lowering costs for PPP projects implementation, and increasing investment returns. These measures provide critical support for the successful implementation of PPP projects and contribute to sustainable national economic development. PRC’s experience demonstrated that even during social crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, tax incentives effectively promote private sector participation in infrastructure construction and the provision of public services to harmonize the economic and social goals in public policy.

The intelligent transportation system seeks to reduce traffic and improve the driving experience. They give us a lot of data that we can use to improve services for both the public and transportation officials by feeding it into machine learning systems. Most importantly, Traffic environment refers to everything that might have an impact on how much traffic is moving down the road, including traffic signals, accidents, protests, and even road repairs that might result in a backup. A motorist or rider can make an informed choice if they have previous knowledge that is very close to approximate all the above and many more real-world circumstances that can affect traffic. Additionally, it aids in the development of driverless vehicles. Traffic data have been growing dramatically in recent decades, and we are moving toward big data concepts for transportation. The current approaches for predicting traffic flow use some traffic prediction models, however they are still inadequate to handle practical situations. We thus aimed to focus on the traffic flow forecast problem using the traffic data and prediction models. The proposed model called DRGNN, a dilated recurrent graph neural network framework aims to effectively analyze and predict the traffic pattern by considering the spatial (space) and temporal (time) aspects of the real-time traffic data considering social relationships between internet of vehicles which indeed produced accurate and valuable insights that could help in deploying the model in any suitable real-time traffic monitoring and prediction system.

Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects involve stakeholders engaged in various contract structures in a lengthy contract duration. Such situations expose the projects to risks related to collaborative working and information integration. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is seen as a mechanism to improve the collaboration and integration in the PPP projects. However, BIM also exposes its users to additional risk when the barriers in sharing information are reduced. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the BIM risk factors that have significant impact towards PPP projects implementing BIM. Since the United Kingdom (UK) is considered advanced in practising PPP and BIM, this study investigates the UK industry players’ views on what they considered as significant BIM factors in PPP projects. Consequently, the study has identified six (6) most significant BIM risk factors through questionnaire and experts’ interviews. The findings provide a lesson learnt for Malaysia to consider the BIM risks in implementing BIM in PPP projects.

The potential for improving the efficiency and success of partnerships in agricultural biotechnology is contingent on the presence of trust. As Stephen Covey (2006) asserts in his book The Speed of Trust, trust is the basis of the new global economy and is an essential element of any successful organization [1]. The presence of trust is particularly important in public-private partnerships (PPPs), in which partners with varied interests, goals, and operating principles embark on complex tasks within innovative ventures. Even more crucial is the role of trust in the success of agbiotech initiatives led by PPPs. This is cited throughout the literature on trust and has been confirmed by numerous agricultural stakeholders who participated in our case studies of agbiotech PPPs in Africa [2-9]. Stakeholders linked project successes with the establishment and maintenance of trust throughout the duration of their respective partnerships. When trust was broken or nonexistent in the partnerships, stakeholders reported an evident negative impact on the partnerships. In several cases, stakeholders cited instances in which the erosion of trust led to severed ties among stakeholders of the project or to slow progression of certain phases of the projects, such as product development or biosafety approval.

Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects have been gaining in popularity in many developing countries along with developed countries. While there has been sufficient research on private sector capacity to make the partnership successful, not much research exists on the importance of the financial health of the public sector in PPP projects. The premise of the current research is that strong public sector finances instil confidence in the private sector of governments’ ability to honour PPP commitments and that, in turn, increases the attractiveness of PPP projects. Through a number of case studies relating to government finances of Indian states and other countries, it is seen that governments which have checks and balances to issuance of guarantees and other forms of indirect support for PPP projects are actually able to attract higher levels of PPP investment.

A state-level public–private infrastructure cooperative (iCoop) is proposed as an effective means of financing public–private partnership (PPP) transportation projects. iCoop is an independent state-level infrastructure bank dedicated to financing PPP projects and is operated like a banking cooperative with guaranteed minimum returns to its investors. Its ownership is founded on a public–private partnership, and its initial capitalization draws on the state's noncapital contribution in the form of PPP participation guarantees, private capital contributions from local and global investors, and its own bank deposits. iCoop's business model eliminates the state's need for PPP “subsidies” resulting from toll revenue shortfalls and converts them into additional debt capacity with returns for reinvestment. iCoop helps to lower the overall PPP financing costs and reduce perceived risks associated with greenfield construction financing. iCoop is also designed explicitly to mitigate key political risks underlying PPP projects. Through iCoop, the state can effectively increase its infrastructure debt capacity without jeopardizing its current debt limit and do so with no direct capital contributions. For global investors, iCoop provides a new vehicle to access a portfolio of infrastructure assets, thereby offering them the opportunity to further diversify their risks. iCoop gives a face to the much-talked-about infrastructure bank idea with a sound business rationale and a clear implementation strategy.