Different approaches for estimating the impact of climate change on runoff processes in Georgian basin

<p>The future development of the runoff conditions, as a consequence of climate change, is of great interest for water managers. Information about the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime is needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection.</p><p>The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on the runoff regime in five selected catchments located in the territory of Slovakia. Changes in climatic characteristics (i.e., precipitation and air temperature) for future time horizons were prepared by a regional climate model KNMI using the A1B emission scenario. The selected climatic scenario predicts a general increase in air temperature and precipitation (higher in winter than in summer). For simulations of runoff under changed conditions, a lumped rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model) was used. This model belongs to a group of conceptual models and follows a structure of a widely used Swedish HBV model. The TUW model was calibrated for the period of 2011 – 2019. We assumed that this period would be similar (to recent/warmer climate) in terms of the average daily air temperatures and daily precipitation totals. The future changes in runoff due to climate change were evaluated by comparing the simulated long-term mean monthly runoff for the current state (1981-2010) and modelled scenarios in three time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). The results indicate that changes in the long-term runoff seasonality and extremality of hydrological cycle could be expected in the future. The runoff should increase in winter months compared to the reference period. This increase is probably related to a rise in temperature and anticipated snowmelt. Conversely, during the summer periods, a decrease in the long-term runoff could be assumed. According to modelling, these changes will be more pronounced in the later time horizons.</p><p>It should be noted that the results of the simulation are dependent on the availability of the inputs, the hydrological/climate model used, the schematization of the simulated processes, etc. Therefore, they need to be interpreted with a sufficient degree of caution</p>

78.2 Impact of Climate Change on the Health and Well-Being of Indigenous Communities in Australia

Quantitatively projecting the impact of future climate change on the socio-economy and exploring its internal mechanism are of great practical significance to adapt to climate change and prevent climate risks. Based on the economy-climate (C-D-C) model, this paper introduces a yield impact of climate change (YICC) model that can quantitatively project the climate change impact. The model is based on the YICC as its core concept and uses the impact ratio of climate change (IRCC) indicator to assess the response of the economic system to climate change over a long period of time. The YICC is defined as the difference between the economic output under changing climate condition and that under assumed invariant climate condition. The IRCC not only reflects the sensitivity of economic output to climate change but also reveals the mechanism of the nonlinear interaction between climate change and non-climatic factors on the socio-economic system. Using the main grain-producing areas in China as a case study, we use the data of the ensemble average of 5 GCMs in CMIP6 to project the possible impact of climate change on grain production in the next 15–30 years under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the long-term climate change in the future will have a restraining effect on production in North region and enhance production in South region. From 2021 to 2035, climate change will reduce production by 0.60–2.09% in North region, and increase production by 1.80–9.01% in South region under three future scenarios. From 2021 to 2050, compared with the climate change impact in 2021–2035, the negative impact of climate change on production in North region will weaken, and the positive impact on production in South region will enhance with the increase in emission concentration. Among them, climate change will reduce grain output in North region by 0.52–1.99%, and increase output in South region by 1.35–9.56% under the three future scenarios. The combination of economic results and climate change research is expected to provide scientific support for further revealing the economic mechanism of climate change impacts.

IntroductionClimate change's severe impact on human health is becoming increasingly evident, particularly for vulnerable populations with serious illnesses. Climate-related extreme weather events are expected to increase demand for hospice and palliative care due to rising respiratory illnesses, heat-related issues, waterborne diseases, and aggravated chronic conditions. Our scoping review aimed to investigate the existing literature on climate change's impact on hospice and palliative medicine (HPM). MethodsWe conducted a comprehensive literature search across various databases (e.g., Medline, EMbase, Web of Science, and Cochrane) using predefined climate change and HPM terms, resulting in 382 records. Following predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria, 44 articles were selected for full-text review, and 20 were included for final analysis. In light of the limited literature on climate change's impact on HPM, we also sought narratives from HPM practitioners from across the world on their experiences in a changing climate. ResultsSix major themes emerged: 1) The impact of climate change on HPM in low-income countries; 2) Descriptive pieces on climate change, climate disasters, and HPM; 3) Morbidity and mortality after climate disasters in the seriously ill population; 4) Discussion of euthanasia during climate disasters; 5) Recommendations and frameworks for disaster response in the field of HPM; 6) Carbon footprint of hospices. Additionally, narratives from HPM practitioners highlighted the disruptive effects of climate disasters on seriously ill patients and their caregivers as disasters caused care interruptions, reduced access to crucial health infrastructure, exacerbations of illness, accelerated disease progression, and increased morbidity and mortality. ConclusionExisting research on climate change's impact on HPM is primarily anecdotal and descriptive, with a focus on climate-related disasters. Narratives from HPM practitioners worldwide underscore the disproportionate impact of climate disasters on seriously ill patients. Further research is necessary to comprehensively understand climate's intricate effects on HPM and to assess adaptable, mitigative, and resilient solutions against its adverse impacts.

Introduction Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events, with recent earthquakes, natural disasters, there is epidemic and increase in many paediatric infectious diseases (PID) worldwide, including some newly-circulating ones, such as Zika virus and arbo-viruses in North America and the Caribbean, Ebola and Cholera outbreak in Africa, SIRS in middle east e.t.c. This reflects the combined impacts of rapid demographic, environmental, social, technological and other changes in our ways of living. Aims We reviewed the available scientific evidences of the impact of recent climate change on PID and also examines the observed and predicted impacts of changes in major climate variables on pathogen, host, and transmission of PID in order to estimate the future burden of infectious diseases on children. Methods We reviewed published and unpublished literature on climate change and PID. The data were mainly descriptive and we used predictive analytical modelling to assess the future burden. Findings We observed evidence of associations between climatic conditions and PID in children with different modality of transmission. The responsible agents identified were viruses, bacteria, protozoa and parasites, with various adaptations in the host. Increasing temperature was the most important contributing factor when compared with other natural disasters. There is a global resurgence of hitherto controlled diseases and the emergence of new ones with redistribution of existing infectious diseases due to an unstable climate. Many of the most common infectious diseases, and particularly those transmitted by vectors, are highly sensitive to climate variation. New and resurgent vector-borne communicable diseases, including arbo-viruses, such as dengue, Zika and Ebola, and malaria are evident widely. Other infectious diseases, such cholera have shown increased outbreaks due to elevated temperature and flooding with the resultant displacement of affected people. Conclusions Changes in infectious disease transmission patterns are a likely major consequence of climate change. There is need for a better understanding of the causal relationships, in order to predict the future impacts of this on children’s health. In addition, paediatrician are likely to see an increasing number of cases due to adverse effects of climate change. An international collaborative effort with an integrated model of care is therefore required.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production in Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) where the deleterious impacts of climate change are generally projected to be greatest. Design/methodology/approach The study used a production function model using Fixed Effect Regression (FER) analysis and then using marginal impact analysis to assess the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production. Therefore, the study utilized panel data for the period 1961-2009 pooled from 20 countries in MENA region. Findings Results showed that 1 per cent increase in temperature during winter resulted in 1.12 per cent decrease in agricultural production. It was also observed that 1 per cent increase in temperature variability during winter and spring resulted in 0.09 and 0.14 per cent decrease in agricultural production, respectively. Results also indicated that increasing precipitation during winter and fall season and precipitation variability during winter and summer seasons had negative impact. The estimated parameters of square temperature and precipitation indicated that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on agricultural production in MENA region. Originality/value Despite there are many studies on the impact of climate change on agricultural production, there is a lack of publications to address the economic impact of both climate change and variability on agricultural production in MENA region. Thus, these results are more comprehensive and more informative to policymakers than the results from field trials.

The climate change in the agricultural sector acting on multiple weather variables at different times of the various crop cycles. In several cases by changing the mean level of variables (rainfall, temperature, etc..), in other cases by changing the distribution of events. This work provides an evaluation of the economic impact due to changes in multiple events, and to the associated uncertainty. For this reason, a classical two-stage stochastic programming model was extend into a three-stages model. The model is specified for an area of Sardinia, and examines the impact of climate change on rainfall and hence on the availability of water for agriculture, and on maximum temperatures and, therefore, on the requirements of some irrigated crops relevant to the agricultural economy of the area. The effect of climate change is obtained by comparing the results of scenarios that represent the climatic conditions in the current situation and in the future, obtained by projecting to 2015 the climate trends of the last fifty years. The results show that the agricultural sector of the area adapt itself with a low cost by use of land and cultural practices. This cost, however, is very high for some farms that suffer a significant reduction of the income. There is also an increase of the use of natural resources, in particularly groundwater. The economic impact of these changes is due primarily to the decreased of water availability in the future. The availability of water becomes the crucial factor to adapting to climate change, because the effects of temperature can be compensate by increased the use of water resources.

The impact of climate change on the territory and population is only increasing every year. Extreme weather events are expected to be repetitive and difficult to predict. New research shows that the effects of global warming are felt in large cities, at least twice as strong as in rural areas. That is why taking the necessary precautionary measures becomes an urgent task. The key, according to researchers, is adaptation and prevention. The authors of the article, analyzing the prerequisites and consequences of climate change, propose a scheme of organizational and economic mechanisms to counteract climate change in complex urban environments. Long-term goals include reducing urban heat islands through urban planning and climate-friendly home design to create a conducive, non-air-conditioned environment. In order to maximize the effectiveness of such adaptation measures, active multidisciplinary collaboration is required with the involvement of professionals in many industries. The assessment of the impact of climate change on the environment and human health has identified a number of gaps in knowledge and problems in the implementation of appropriate health measures. The article substantiates the relevance of climate change research in Ukraine. In addition, the main results of the research on population safety in the global climate change are summarized. Factors of the impact of global climate change on the environment, man, society, economy and complex agglomerations are highlighted. The consequences of climate change of natural, economic and social nature are presented. Directions and measures to adapt natural and socio-economic systems to global climate change are substantiated. The classification of the mechanisms of counteraction and mitigation of the negative effects of global climate change is given.

Climate and land use change (CLUC) impact studies on water and groundwater resources have evolved in recent years. To determine whether all research gaps have been or are being addressed through the current intellectual structure, a bibliometric analysis, as well as a record review, was enacted to determine the intellectual structure of CLUC impacts on water resources, with a particular focus on the implications for groundwater resources research in the Breede Gouritz Water Management Area (BGWMA) in South Africa. Methods applied included publication-related trends and science mapping. This study found that CLUC impact research being published has increased by 600% between 2014 and 2021, localised research is being done in 95 countries, and land use change (LUC), specifically urbanisation, is being considered more often as a variable. However, a few gaps in the research remain, including smaller spatiotemporal scales in more locations, a stronger focus on LUC in all its forms, LUC versus climate change (CC) impact studies, and multi-modal approaches to related research. CLUC impacts on water and groundwater resources research have made significant progress over the years, but more research is necessary to make this a robust area of research.

Introduction There is a substantial literature about the future impacts of climate change (Nordhaus 1991; Cline 1992b; Fankhauser 1995; Mendelsohn et al . 2000; Tol 2002a); see Tol (2009b) for an overview. Less is known, however, about the impacts of climate change in the past. While there is no immediate policy relevance of estimates of past effects – as liability is yet to be established (Tol and Verheyen 2004) – such estimates would serve to validate models of future impacts – and thus help to improve these models and build confidence. In this chapter, I turn this question on its head. I use a model to backcast past impacts, thus generating hypotheses to be tested against observations. Unfortunately, there are no direct observations of the economic impact of past climate change. Note that the cause of climate change, past or future, is irrelevant for its impacts. There are, however, some studies that estimate particular aspects of the impact of past climate change, typically focussing on biophysical impacts.

Research on the impact of climate change on water resources has attracted the attention of academician and policy makers. This paper tends to analyze the impact of changes in air temperature and rainfall factors on the amount of water resources in the Huai River Basin from 1980 to 2014. Air temperature and rainfall data were collected from six meteorological stations. Hydrological and water resources evaluation data were collected from the Bengbu Hydrological Station in the Huai River Basin. Research findings revealed an increasing trend of average annual air temperature, with the highest increase of 0.293oC recorded at Bengbu in Anhui Province. The western part of the study area has shown a rising rainfall while the eastern part (the middle reaches of the Huai River) witnessed a declining rainfall. The rainfall in the Huai River Basin was significantly influenced by the natural fluctuations as the average rainfall in the study area was in a vaguely declining trend. This resulted in gradual decrease in the quantity of the Basin’s water resources due to decreasing rainfall and rising air temperature. Regression and sensitivity analyses were employed to develop a mathematical model between water resources quantity and changes in air temperature and rainfall. Based on regression analysis findings, changes in rainfall have a much bigger impact on its water resources quantity than changes in its air temperature.

The purpose of this paper is to review and evaluate published literature on the impact of climate change on birds. A systematic method was utilized to access research works of literature on “Impact of Climate Change on Birds”. A total of sixty-seven (67) research papers published between the years 1962 to 2023 was accumulated and used for this review. A subjective approach was used to select the topics: impact of climate change and birds. In this paper, nine (9) threatening impacts of climate change on the bird populations were assessed and presented as well as three (3) detrimental impacts of climate change on birds inhabiting mangrove forests. Further, this paper assessed some birds that are threatened with extinction and it also provided a checklist of some migratory birds that are threatened due to the changing climate and that are found on the RED list of the IUCN. Approaches and strategies to enhance and address bird conservation to combat the effect of climate change was also presented in this review. The published works of literature established that the global bird population dynamics, ecology, breeding seasonality, abundance and distribution are all affected due to the threats of climate change. Climate change will affect birds indirectly in the future by modifying their habitats through sea level rise, changes in fire regimes, and changes in vegetation or land use. Birds are in particular vulnerable to environmental changes like climate change since they are subject to continuous changes that may be negatively connected. This review highlights the fact that more extensive studies on the impact of climate change on birds should be done in neotropical countries since there are gaps of such information on research and published data in these biodiversity rich regions.

This study provides a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of research on digital technologies in cultural heritage, focusing on key trends, innovations, and interdisciplinary collaborations. By analyzing co-occurrence networks, author collaborations, and publication density, the study reveals a growing emphasis on the integration of technologies such as augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and 3D scanning in the preservation and promotion of cultural heritage. These digital tools are increasingly used to create immersive experiences and preserve both tangible and intangible heritage. The study also highlights the rising importance of addressing climate change's impact on heritage sites and explores ethical concerns related to data ownership, authenticity, and equitable access. Despite the many benefits of digital preservation, challenges such as the digital divide and the potential commodification of heritage remain significant obstacles. The analysis underscores the need for interdisciplinary collaborations and the development of sustainable, inclusive digital heritage initiatives to ensure that these technologies benefit all stakeholders. The study concludes by identifying key areas for future research, including the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technologies into cultural heritage management and the exploration of climate change's long-term impact on heritage preservation.

Climate Change and Health: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Policy

Urban residents face increasing risk of heat stress due to the combined impact of climate change and intensification of the urban heat island (UHI) associated with urban growth. Considering the combined effect of urban growth and climate change is vital to understanding how temperatures in urban areas will change in the future. This study investigated the impact of urban growth and climate change on the UHI and heat stress in a subtropical city (Brisbane, Australia) in the present day (1991–2000) and medium term (2041–2050; RCP8.5) during summer. A control and urban growth scenario was used to compare the temperature increase from climate change alone with the temperature increase from climate change and urban growth. Average and minimum temperatures increased more with climate change and urban growth combined than with climate change alone, indicating that if urban growth is ignored, future urban temperatures could be underestimated. Under climate change alone, rural temperatures increased more than urban temperatures, decreasing the effect of the UHI by 0.4 °C at night and increasing the urban cool island by 0.8 °C during the day. With climate change, the number of hot days and nights doubled in urban and rural areas in 2041–2050 as compared to 1991–2000. The number of hot nights was higher in urban areas and with urban growth. Dangerous heat stress, defined as apparent temperature above 40 °C, increased with climate change and occurred on average 1–2 days every summer during 2041–2050, even in shaded conditions. There was higher temperature increases with urban growth and climate change than with climate change alone, indicating that reducing the effect of the UHI is vital to ensuring urban growth does not increase the heat stress risks that urban residents will face in the future.