“Early - Easy way” to predict a mortality in intensive care unit

Predicting mortality in ICU patients with acute leukemias: A new risk score

Prospective evaluation of the prognostic scores for cirrhotic patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit

BackgroundWe aimed to develop and validate models for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality of critically ill adult patients as early as upon ICU admission.MethodsCombined data of 79,657 admissions from two teaching hospitals’ ICU databases were used to train and validate the machine learning models to predict ICU mortality upon ICU admission and at 24 h after ICU admission by using logistic regression, gradient boosted trees (GBT), and deep learning algorithms.ResultsIn the testing dataset for the admission models, the ICU mortality rate was 7%, and 38.4% of patients were discharged alive or dead within 1 day of ICU admission. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.856, 95% CI 0.845–0.867) and area under the precision-recall curve (0.331, 95% CI 0.323–0.339) were the highest for the admission GBT model. The ICU mortality rate was 17.4% in the 24-hour testing dataset, and the performance was the highest for the 24-hour GBT model.ConclusionThe ADM models can provide crucial information on ICU mortality as early as upon ICU admission. 24 H models can be used to improve the prediction of ICU mortality for patients discharged more than 1 day after ICU admission.

IntroductionSepsis is a life-threatening condition, especially for patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), where early identification of the prognosis is critical. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of inflammatory markers, clinical scores, and specific laboratory findings for predicting ICU and in-hospital mortality in sepsis patients.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted on adult patients with sepsis who were admitted to the ICU of a university hospital between September 2019 and December 2022. To minimize selection bias, all eligible patients during the study period were consecutively included. Data were extracted from electronic medical records and included demographics, clinical characteristics, inflammatory markers, and clinical scores such as the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). The primary outcomes were ICU and in-hospital mortality. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of mortality.ResultsA total of 213 ICU patients with sepsis were included in the study. The patients were 62.0% male with a mean age of 73.1 ± 12.6 years. The ICU and in-hospital mortality rates were 29.6% and 36.6%, respectively. Non-survivors had higher clinical severity scores and poorer nutritional and perfusion profiles than survivors. Multivariate analysis revealed that elevated lactate levels (a marker of tissue hypoperfusion) and higher SAPS 3 scores were independently associated with ICU mortality. For in-hospital mortality, lower albumin levels and higher SAPS 3 scores were significant predictors.ConclusionsHigh lactate and SAPS 3 scores were independent predictors of mortality, while higher albumin levels showed a potential protective effect. Early identification of these factors may aid in the management of sepsis.

BackgroundPathophysiological features of coronavirus disease 2019-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (COVID-19 ARDS) were indicated to be somewhat different from those described in nonCOVID-19 ARDS, because of relatively preserved compliance of the respiratory system despite marked hypoxemia. We aim ascertaining whether respiratory system static compliance (Crs), driving pressure (DP), and tidal volume normalized for ideal body weight (VT/kg IBW) at the 1st day of controlled mechanical ventilation are associated with intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in COVID-19 ARDS.MethodsObservational multicenter cohort study. All consecutive COVID-19 adult patients admitted to 25 ICUs belonging to the COVID-19 VENETO ICU network (February 28th–April 28th, 2020), who received controlled mechanical ventilation, were screened. Only patients fulfilling ARDS criteria and with complete records of Crs, DP and VT/kg IBW within the 1st day of controlled mechanical ventilation were included. Crs, DP and VT/kg IBW were collected in sedated, paralyzed and supine patients.ResultsA total of 704 COVID-19 patients were screened and 241 enrolled. Seventy-one patients (29%) died in ICU. The logistic regression analysis showed that: (1) Crs was not linearly associated with ICU mortality (p value for nonlinearity = 0.01), with a greater risk of death for values < 48 ml/cmH2O; (2) the association between DP and ICU mortality was linear (p value for nonlinearity = 0.68), and increasing DP from 10 to 14 cmH2O caused significant higher odds of in-ICU death (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.06–1.99); (3) VT/kg IBW was not associated with a significant increase of the risk of death (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.55–1.52). Multivariable analysis confirmed these findings.ConclusionsCrs < 48 ml/cmH2O was associated with ICU mortality, while DP was linearly associated with mortality. DP should be kept as low as possible, even in the case of relatively preserved Crs, irrespective of VT/kg IBW, to reduce the risk of death.

Introduction: The Society of Critical Care Medicine Tele-Critical Care (TCC) Committee has identified the need for rigorous comparative research of different TCC delivery models to support the development of best practices for staffing, application, and approaches to workflow. Our objective was to describe and compare outcomes between two TCC delivery models, TCC with 24/7 Bedside Intensivist (BI) compared with TCC with Private Daytime Attending Intensivist (PI) in relation to intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital mortality, ICU and hospital length of stay (LOS), cost, and complications across the spectrum of routine ICU standards of care. Methods: Observational cohort study at large health care system in 12 ICUs and included patients, ≥18, with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IVa scores and predictions (October 2016-June 2019). Results: Of the 19,519 ICU patients, 71.7% (n = 13,993) received TCC with 24/7 BI while 28.3% (n = 5,526) received TCC with PI. ICU and Hospital mortality (4.8% vs. 3.1%, p < 0.0001; 12.6% vs. 8.1%, p < 0.001); and ICU and Hospital LOS (3.2 vs. 2.4 days, p < 0.001; 9.8 vs. 7.2 days, p < 0.001) were significantly higher among 24/7 BI compared with PI. The APACHE observed/expected ratios (odds ratio [OR]; 95% confidence interval [CI]) for ICU mortality (0.62; 0.58-0.67) vs. (0.53; 0.46-0.61) and Hospital mortality (0.95; 0.57-1.48) vs. (0.77; 0.70-0.84) were significantly different for 24/7 BI compared with PI. Multivariate mixed models that adjusted for confounders demonstrated significantly greater odds of (OR; 95% CI) ICU mortality (1.58; 1.28-1.93), Hospital mortality (1.52; 1.33-1.73), complications (1.55; 1.18-2.04), ICU LOS [3.14 vs. 2.59 (1.25; 1.19-1.51)], and Hospital LOS [9.05 vs. 7.31 (1.23; 1.21-1.25)] among 24/7 BI when compared with PI. Sensitivity analyses adjusting for ICU admission within 24 h of hospital admission, receiving active ICU treatments, nighttime admission, sepsis, and highest third acute physiology score indicated significantly higher odds for 24/7 BI compared with PI. Conclusion: Our comparison demonstrated that TCC delivery model with PI provided high-quality care with significant positive effects on outcomes. This suggests that TCC delivery models have broad-ranging applicability and benefits in routine critical care, thus necessitating progressive research in this direction.

Survival predictions of different arm circumference classifications in patients under intensive care.

Background:Fluid management is important in critically patients. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between fluid balance and adverse outcomes of septic shock.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted in the medical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a tertiary university hospital in Thailand, over a 7-year period.Results:A total of 1048 patients with an ICU mortality rate of 47% were enrolled. The median cumulative fluid intake at 24, 48, and 72 h from septic shock onset were 4.2, 7.7, and 10.5 L, respectively. Nonsurvivors had a significantly higher median cumulative fluid intake at 24, 48, and 72 h (4.6 vs. 3.9 L, 8.2 vs. 7.1 L, and 11.4 vs. 9.9 L, respectively, P < 0.001 for all). Nonsurvivors also had a significantly higher cumulative and mean fluid balance within 72 h (5.4 vs. 4.4 L and 2.8 vs. 1.6 L, P < 0.001 for both). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, mean fluid balance quartile within 72 h, was independently associated with an increase in ICU and hospital mortality. Quartile 3 and 4 have statistically significant increases in mortality compared with quartile 1 (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] 3.04 [1.9–4.48] and 4.16 [2.49–6.95] for ICU mortality and 2.75 [1.74–4.36] and 3.16 [1.87–5.35] for hospital mortality, respectively, P < 0.001 for all). In addition, the higher amount of mean fluid balance was associated with prolonged ICU stays.Conclusions:Positive fluid balance over 3 days is associated with increased ICU and hospital mortality along with prolonged ICU stays in septic shock patients.

Hypophosphatemia in critically ill patients

Background Antibiotic de-escalation is an important strategy to conserve the effectiveness of broad-spectrum antibiotics. However, the outcome of this strategy for the treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) has not been widely studied in developing countries. Objectives To evaluate the outcome on intensive care unit (ICU) mortality, 28days mortality, and length of ICU stay among VAP patients who receive de-escalation therapy. Setting This study was conducted in an ICU of a Malaysian public hospital. Method The electronic medical records of patients who developed VAP in the ICU were retrieved and relevant data was collected. Records of antibiotic prescriptions were also reviewed to collect the details of changes to antibiotic therapy (de-escalation). Main outcome measure Impact of antibiotic de-escalation on mortality. Results The mean age of the 108 patients was 46.2±18.2years; the majority being males (80%). The antibiotic de-escalation rate was about 30%. Out of this, 84% involved a change from broad to narrow-spectrum antibiotics and the remaining, withdrawal of one or more antibiotics. ICU mortality was 23% while 28days mortality was 37%. There was no statistically significant difference in mortality rate, survival probability and the mean length of ICU stay between the de-escalation and the non-de-escalation group. However, patients with Simplified Acute Physiology Score II of ≥50 were significantly associated with ICU mortality and 28days mortality. Conclusions In VAP patients, antibiotic de-escalation provides an opportunity to promote the judicious use of antibiotics without affecting the clinical outcomes.

Despite major advances that were made in intensive care unit, mortality rate remains high. The objective of our study was to analyze the incidence and predictive factors of mortality in a surgical intensive care unit, in order to apprehend these factors for an optimal management. We have conducted a retrospective study about 100 consecutive cases of patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit of Ibn Sina University Hospital in Rabat, during a 3-month period (02/01/2021-02/04/2021). Nearly 20 parameters were collected, analyzed and compared between the group of survivors and the group of deceased. The results shows that the mean age of the patients was 56.86 years, and the sex ratio of men to women was 1,56. Medical comorbidities were dominated by hypertensive and/or ischemic heart disease (38%), diabetes (22%), smoking (27%), neoplasia (17%). 61% of patients were admitted for a surgical pathology, 30% for a medical pathology, and 9% for a traumatic reason. The average APACHE II score at admission was 14,61. On the therapeutic level: 39% of the patients had recourse to vasoactive drugs, 49% had recourse to mechanical ventilation, 6% benefited from extra-renal purification, and 46% from a transfusion of blood derivatives. The average length of stay was 6,46 days. Multivariate analysis using binary logistic regression identified the following factors as independent mortality factors: the existence of neoplastic comorbidities, admission for a medical reason, the elevated APACHE II score, the need for vasoactive drugs, the prolonged mechanic ventilation, the need for transfusion, and the elevated length of stay, all of them were significant. Knowing the predictive factors of mortality will allow us to improve the quality of the care provided, and to target an eventual preventive action to improve the prognosis and to decrease mortality in intensive care unit.

Critically ill patients with systemic rheumatic diseases (SRDs) have a fair prognosis, while those with interstitial lung disease (ILD) have a poorer outcome. However, the prognosis of SRD patients with ILD admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) remains unclear. We conducted a case–control study to investigate the outcomes of critically ill SRD-ILD patients. Consecutive SRD-ILD patients admitted to five ICUs from January 2007 to December 2017 were compared to SRD patients without ILD. Mortality rates were compared between groups, and prognostic factors were then identified. One hundred and forty critically ill SRD patients were included in the study. Among the 70 patients with SRD–ILD, the SRDs were connective tissue diseases (56%), vasculitis (29%), sarcoidosis (13%), and spondylarthritis (3%). Patients were mainly admitted for acute exacerbation of SRD-ILD (36%) or infection (34%). ICU, in-hospital, and one-year mortality rates in SRD-ILD patients were higher than in SRD patients without ILD (n = 70): 40% vs. 16% (p < 0.01), 49% vs. 19% (p < 0.01), and 66% vs. 40% (p < 0.01), respectively. Hypoxemia, high sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, and admission for ILD acute exacerbation were associated with ICU mortality. In conclusion, ILD worsened the outcomes of SRD patients admitted to the ICU. Admissions related to SRD-ILD acute exacerbation and the severity of the acute respiratory failure were associated with ICU mortality.

BackgroundDuring resuscitation in severe sepsis and septic shock, several goals are set. However, usually not all goals are equally met. The aim of this study is to determine the relative importance of the different goals, such as mean arterial pressure (MAP), lactate, central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) and central to forefoot temperature (delta-T), and how they relate to intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital mortality.MethodsIn a retrospective cohort study in a 20-bed mixed medical and surgical ICU of a teaching hospital we studied consecutive critically ill patients who were admitted for confirmed infection and severe sepsis or septic shock between 2008 and 2014. All validated MAP, lactate levels, ScvO2 and delta-T for the first 24 hours of ICU treatment were extracted from a clinical database. Logistic regression analyses were performed on validated measurements in the first hour after admission and on mean values over 24 hours. Patients were categorized by MAP (24-hour mean below or above 65 mmHg) and lactate (24-hour mean below or above 2 mmol/l) for Cox regression analysis.ResultsFrom 837 patients, 821 were eligible for analysis. All had MAP and lactate measurements. The delta-T was available in 812 (99 %) and ScvO2 was available for 193 out of these patients (23.5 %). Admission lactate (p < 0.001) and admission MAP (p < 0.001) were independent predictors of ICU and hospital mortality. The 24-hour mean values for lactate, MAP and delta-T were all independent predictors of ICU mortality. Hospital mortality was independently predicted by the 24-hour mean lactate (odds ratio (OR) 1.34, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.30–1.40, p = 0.001) mean MAP (OR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.95–0.97, p = 0.001) and mean delta-T (OR 1.09, 95 % CI 1.06–1.12, p = 0.001). Patients with a 24-hour mean lactate below 2 mmol/l and a 24-hour mean MAP above 65 mmHg had the best survival, followed by patients with a low lactate and a low MAP.ConclusionsAdmission MAP and lactate independently predicted ICU and hospital mortality. The 24-hour mean lactate, mean MAP and mean delta-T independently predicted hospital mortality. A Cox regression analysis showed that 24-hour mean lactate above 2 mmol/l is the strongest predictor for ICU mortality.

An accurate method to predict the mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU) patients has been required, especially in children. The aim of this study is to evaluate the value of serum anion gap (AG) for predicting mortality in pediatric ICU (PICU). We reviewed a data of 461 pediatric patients were collected on PICU admission. Corrected anion gap (cAG), the AG compensated for abnormal albumin levels, was significantly lower in survivors compared with nonsurvivors (p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified the following variables as independent predictors of mortality; cAG (OR 1.110, 95% CI 1.06–1.17; p < 0.001), PIM3 [OR 7.583, 95% CI 1.81–31.78; p = 0.006], and PRISM III [OR 1.076, 95% CI 1.02–1.14; p = 0.008]. Comparing AUCs for mortality prediction, there were no statistically significant differences between cAG and other mortality prediction models; cAG 0.728, PIM2 0.779, PIM3 0.822, and PRISM III 0.808. The corporation of cAG to pre-existing mortality prediction models was significantly more accurate at predicting mortality than using any of these models alone. We concluded that cAG at ICU admission may be used to predict mortality in children, regardless of underlying etiology. And the incorporation of cAG to pre-existing mortality prediction models might improve predictability.

Objective: To determine whether the outcomes of postoperative patients admitted directly to an intensive care unit (ICU) differ based on the academic status of the institution and the total operative volume of the unit. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis using the eICU Collaborative Research Database v2.0, a national database from participating ICUs in the United States. All patients admitted directly to the ICU from the operating room were included. Transfer patients and patients readmitted to the ICU were excluded. Patients were stratified based on admission to an ICU in an academic medical center (AMC) versus non-AMC, and to ICUs with different operative volume experience, after stratification in quartiles (high, medium-high, medium-low, and low volume). Primary outcomes were ICU and hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included the need for continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) during ICU stay, ICU length of stay (LOS), and 30-day ventilator free days. Results: Our analysis included 22,180 unique patients; the majority of which (15,085[68%]) were admitted to ICUs in non-AMCs. Cardiac and vascular procedures were the most common types of procedures performed. Patients admitted to AMCs were more likely to be younger and less likely to be Hispanic or Asian. Multivariable logistic regression indicated no meaningful association between academic status and ICU mortality, hospital mortality, initiation of CRRT, duration of ICU LOS, or 30-day ventilator-free-days. Contrarily, medium-high operative volume units had higher ICU mortality (OR = 1.45, 95%CI = 1.10-1.91, p-value = 0.040), higher hospital mortality (OR = 1.33, 95%CI = 1.07-1.66, p-value = 0.033), longer ICU LOS (Coefficient = 0.23, 95%CI = 0.07-0.39, p-value = 0.038), and fewer 30-day ventilator-free-days (Coefficient = -0.30, 95%CI = -0.48 - -0.13, p-value = 0.015) compared to their high operative volume counterparts. Conclusions: This study found that a volume-outcome association in the management of postoperative patients requiring ICU level of care immediately after a surgical procedure may exist. The academic status of the institution did not affect the outcomes of these patients.