Ecological Forecasting for Readiness, Resilience, and Response

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is uniquely positioned to apply its considerable forecasting capabilities and experience toward predicting the response of ecosystems and their components to environmental changes. With the recent frequency and severity of episodic ecosystem events and the associated increase in public awareness and concern, never has the demand for such forecasts been higher. NOAA has established an Ecological Forecasting Roadmap to coordinate and apply its expertise, capacity, and partnerships to advance the field of ecological forecasting and increase the quantity and quality of timely and actionable information available to resource managers, emergency responders, and health officials, so that whenever possible, preventative or mitigating measures may be taken. Establishing a national ecological forecasting capacity with regionally tailored approaches requires cutting-edge observing systems and modeling techniques. This paper outlines some of the specific areas in which emerging technology is critically important to understanding ecosystem changes and enabling ecological forecasting.

Wetlands have been shown to have some capacity to retain and store phosphorus, although it has been clearly demonstrated their efficiency is reduced as P loads increase (Qian and Richardson 1997b; Richardson and Qian 1999). Peatlands have a lower capacity to retain P than mineral-based wetlands (Richardson 1985, 1999). Nutrient storage capacity, often a design feature of constructed wetlands, is defined as the total mass per unit area that can be retained permanently by the system. However, high P-loading levels may result in significant ecosystem changes (e.g., altered community structure and diversity as well as increased productivity) and increases in downstream P and N output concentrations (Richardson et al. 1997a; Richardson and Qian 1999). One key question concerns the ability of wetlands like the Everglades to assimilate and store P without causing significant changes in the flora and fauna within the ecosystem. This chapter presents an updated version of our earlier P assimilative capacity analysis (Qian and Richardson 1997b; Richardson and Qian 1999) and relates our phosphorus assimilative capacity (PAC) concept with current Stormwater Treatment Area (STA) P loadings and release concentrations.

Adapting ecosystem restoration for sustainable development in a changing world

Many coastal peri-urban and urban populations in Oceania are heavily reliant on terrestrial and marine ecosystem services for subsistence and wellbeing. However, climate change and urbanisation have put significant pressure on ecosystems and compelled nations and territories in Oceania to urgently adapt. This article, with a focus on Pacific Island Oceania but some insight from Aotearoa New Zealand, reviews key literature focused on ecosystem health and human health and wellbeing in Oceania and the important potential contribution of nature-based solutions to limiting the negative impacts of climate change and urbanisation. The inextricable link between human wellbeing and provision of ecosystem services is well established. However, given the uniqueness of Oceania, rich in cultural and biological diversity and traditional ecological knowledge, these links require further examination leading potentially to a new conceptualisation of wellbeing frameworks in relation to human/nature relationships. Rapidly urbanising Oceania has a growing body of rural, peri-urban and urban nature-based solutions experience to draw from. However, important gaps in knowledge and practice remain. Pertinently, there is a need, potential—and therefore opportunity—to define an urban design agenda positioned within an urban ecosystem services framework, focused on human wellbeing and informed by traditional ecological knowledge, determined by and relevant for those living in the islands of Oceania as a means to work towards effective urban climate change adaptation.

Aquatic ecosystems support human wellbeing and provide services critical to furthering and maintaining wellbeing and health, through, e.g., provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting ecosystem services, and sustainable development. Servicing these ecosystems and their links to human wellbeing and health, while vital to policy and management, is often overlooked. This study assesses aquatic ecosystem services for human wellbeing, health, and sustainability through provisioning, risk mitigation, cultural benefits, and recreation. Analyzing these datasets through field surveys, ecosystem service valuation, and sustainability indicators, this paper assesses how aquatic ecosystems fortify community resilience and stimulate economic and social cohesion. Most importantly, the data revealed that managed aquatic ecosystems improve human health and wellbeing while sustaining the service economy, social wellbeing, and supporting long-term ecosystem sustainability. This study also documented the impacts that climate change, pollution, and habitat loss have on these ecosystems. This aligns with the growing concern that attacks on aquatic ecosystems pose to sustainable climate management and ecosystem-driven economies, making this study essential to many. Ultimately, this research seeks to provide and support environmentally sustainable climate policies and ecosystem management to preserve and intergenerationally sustain the services supporting ecosystems and the services and climate managed by ecosystems beyond simply their climate stabilization.

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is the largest assessment to date of the health of the world’s ecosystems. Launched in 2001 by United Nations (UN) secretary-general Kofi Annan and authorized by governments through four international conventions, the MA is intended as a tool to inform decision makers and the public. The documents flowing forth from this work, which was completed in March 2005, have been prepared by 1,360 experts from 95 countries, with an 80-person independent board of review editors. The documents draw on information gathered from the scientific literature, existing data sets, and scientific models, and incorporate knowledge gleaned from the private sector, workers in the field, indigenous peoples, and local communities. Information about the MA, as well as the documents it has released, are available online at http://www.millenniumassessment.org/. The findings of the MA are grim. Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems faster and more extensively than during any other comparable time period in human history. These rapid changes have grown out of increasing demands for natural goods and services, such as food, fresh water, timber, fiber, and fuel. The MA also finds that ecosystem changes have brought about substantial gains in human well-being and in economic development, but that these gains have come at the cost of degrading ecosystem services and increasing poverty for some groups of people. The report predicts that ecosystem change could accelerate during the next 50 years and contribute to nonachievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals. Yet, there is some hope that this situation can still be reversed, and the report sets forth options for improving ecosystems by 2050. These fall under three scenarios: “Global Orchestration,” “Adapting Mosaic,” and “TechnoGarden.” The Global Orchestration scenario reflects a globally connected society focused on international trade and economic liberalization that also takes strong steps to reduce problems such as poverty and inequality and to invest in public infrastructure and education. The Adapting Mosaic scenario focuses on local-scale activities, and investments in human and social capital emphasize education to bring about a better understanding of the nature of ecosystems. At the core of the TechnoGarden scenario is the use of technology and highly managed, often engineered ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services. A fourth scenario, “Order from Strength,” emphasizes heightened security and a fragmented society, to the detriment of the environment. The MA homepage provides the latest news related to the project, while links along the right side of the page access the numerous partners in the MA. These partners include the UN Development Programme, the UN Environment Programme, the World Bank, multiple universities, and others. The Reports section of the site provides links to the major documents produced by the MA. Each report can be downloaded for free in English and several other languages; there is also information on how to order printed copies. The Resources section assembles slide presentations, figures, tables, maps, posters, logos, and brochures that can be used by the media. All are available to download for free. The About the MA section of the website provides a thorough history of how the work came about, how it was funded, how it was undertaken, and how it may continue in the future. This section also includes a page devoted to the many subregional assessments that are being carried out in conjunction with the MA. Links to each provide details of the areas covered by the assessments, the institutions carrying out the assessments, the features of the ecosystem being assessed, key features of the assessments, and the time frame and budget for the work.

Coastal blue carbon in China as a nature-based solution toward carbon neutrality

Long-term monitoring of permafrost in Mongolia showed that permafrost under the influence of climate warming is ubiquitously degrading at different rates. The average trends of the increases in active layer thickness and mean annual ground temperature are 5–20 cm and 0.1–0.3°C per decade, respectively. These trends of the last 15–20 years are higher than those of the previous 15–20 years. Furthermore, the degradation of permafrost in the Hovsgol mountainous region is more intense than in the Hentei and Hangai mountainous regions. Experimental results have shown that vegetation cover, especially moss cover, forest, and dense grass, are natural insulators that maintain lower soil temperature and higher soil moisture by lowering the evaporation rate. Hence, intense grazing may accelerate the degradation of permafrost. Since permafrost plays an important role in the maintenance of ecosystems in this region, the recent degradation of permafrost may lead to significant changes in ecosystems, especially in the soil thermal state and moisture content.

Long-term monitoring programs emphasize power analysis as a tool to determine the sampling effort necessary to effectively document ecologically significant changes in ecosystems. Programs that monitor entire multispecies assemblages require a method for determining the power of multivariate statistical models to detect trend. We provide a method to simulate presence-absence species assemblage data that are consistent with increasing or decreasing directional change in species composition within multiple sites. This step is the foundation for using Monte Carlo methods to approximate the power of any multivariate method for detecting temporal trends. We focus on comparing the power of the Mantel test, permutational multivariate analysis of variance, and constrained analysis of principal coordinates. We find that the power of the various methods we investigate is sensitive to the number of species in the community, univariate species patterns, and the number of sites sampled over time. For increasing directional change scenarios, constrained analysis of principal coordinates was as or more powerful than permutational multivariate analysis of variance, the Mantel test was the least powerful. However, in our investigation of decreasing directional change, the Mantel test was typically as or more powerful than the other models.

Urbanization is a global phenomenon that has wrought significant changes in ecosystems, often resulting in the loss of biodiversity. However, amidst this transformation, urban green spaces emerge as sanctuaries fostering the diversity of flora and fauna. This article delves into the pivotal role of biodiversity within urban green spaces, underscoring their potential as tools for environmental education. Such spaces enable a profound grasp of ecological principles and advocate for a sustainable urban lifestyle. Moreover, the article highlights the imperative role of higher education institutions in fulfilling their responsibilities and commitments toward ecological priorities, including biodiversity conservation and habitat protection and restoration. Using the Lumiar campus as a case study, an interdisciplinary project was executed to instill awareness among students regarding the significance of urban biodiversity. The outcomes validated the efficacy of the Project-Based Learning methodology in bolstering student engagement.

Yellowstone’s ungulates after wolves – expectations, realizations, and predictions

Well-being and the use of ecosystem services by rural households of the Río Cruces watershed, southern Chile

<p>This keynote presentation will discuss several key applications and operational systems in the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) and how they fit in with the broader mission of providing science-based weather, water and climate services to the nation. In addition, the future evolution of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and NWS will be discussed as it relates to future goals and priorities related to people, science, technology, operational concepts and practices, and partnerships between government/public sector, the private sector, and academia. Also, in his role as the current President of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), Dr. Farrar will address the theme for the 2022 AMS annual meeting, "Environmental Security: weather, water and climate for a more secure world", which will explore the national and human security impacts from extreme weather and climate events and intersections with health, energy, food, and water security.</p>

From functional diversity to human well-being: A conceptual framework for agroecosystem sustainability

Background International policy has sought to emphasize and strengthen the link between the conservation of natural ecosystems and human development. Furthermore, international conservation organizations have broadened their objectives beyond nature-based goals to recognize the contribution of conservation interventions in sustaining ecosystem services upon which human populations are dependent. While many indices have been developed to measure various human well-being domains, the strength of evidence to support the effects, both positive and negative, of conservation interventions on human well-being, is still unclear. Methods/Design This protocol describes the methodology for examining the research question: What are the impacts of nature conservation interventions on different domains of human well-being in developing countries? Using systematic mapping, this study will scope and identify studies that measure the impacts of nature conservation interventions on human well-being at local to regional scales. The primary objective of this study is to synthesize the state and distribution of the existing evidence base linking conservation and human well-being. In addition, a theory of change approach will be used to identify and characterize the causal linkages between conservation and human well-being, with attention on those studies that examine the role of ecosystem services. Key trends among the resulting studies will be synthesized and the range of studies organized and presented in a graphical matrix illustrating the relationships between types of interventions and types of outcomes. Results of the study are intended to help conservation and development practitioners and the academic community to improve research studies and conservation practices in developing countries in order to achieve both conservation and human well-being outcomes.