Efficiency criteria for monetary policy in Ukraine

The paper contains a series of complex analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises and can bring a significant contribution to the literature in determining the effects of external factors on economic growth, taking into account the distinct characteristics of the periods of decline. The work includes Hodrick-Prescott filtering techniques for characterizing business cycles in three Central and Eastern European countries and the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique is used to analyze the impact of external shocks on economic growth over two distinct time-horizons. External shocks such as external debt, external interest rate, external output, producer price index and real interest rate were taken into account. For each economy analyzed, the impact of the two types of economic crisis was observed, namely financial crisis and health crisis, and two time-horizons were defined for each complete economic cycle. Over these two time-horizons, the impact of external shocks on economic growth has been assessed. There has been a general decrease in the effects of shocks in the second time-horizon, in which the most severe values of economic growth are associated with the health crisis, compared to the time-horizon associated with the financial crisis. It has also been observed that, in the case of both Hungary and Romania, the responses of economic growth to external shocks are faster compared to the Czech economy. Moreover, external production is the factor that explains most of the variance in the economic growth rate in the first time-horizon, while in the second, one of the most influential indicators is the external production price index, which has been severely affected by the slowdown in the global production process.

The chapter explores two significant challenges faced by central banks in LFDCs: fiscal dominance and external shocks. Monetary policy can be dominated by governments that rely on seigniorage generated by the central bank or impose other constraints to facilitate the financing of persistent deficits. The chapter discusses and illustrates for several countries the concept of seigniorage, examines the mechanisms of fiscal dominance, and assesses its consequences. External oil and food price shocks also raise several monetary policy challenges. Using a theoretical approach, the chapter explores the trade-off between price and output stabilization that the central bank faces after a commodity price hike. The analysis takes into account whether the country is a net exporter or a net importer and whether it is on fixed or on flexible exchange rates. It also discusses coordination issues between monetary and fiscal policies, in particular when windfall gains accrue to the government.

Over the past few years the South African economy experienced strong exchange rate movements as well as shocks to oil prices and import prices. Thorough knowledge of the pass-through of these external factors to domestic inflation is of particular importance for monetary policy. This paper makes use of a VAR of a distribution chain to provide empirical evidence on the pass-through of three external shocks (oil price shocks, exchange rate shocks and non-oil import price shocks) on inflation in South Africa at different price stages. Including prices along a distribution chain is of great interest for price analysis as it reveals how external shocks are propagated from one price stage to the next. The study highlights the relative importance of different external shocks, as well as their combined importance in explaining domestic inflation in South Africa.

Volume 96 of Contemporary studies in economic and financial analysis provides further insights to post-crisis developments in the global economic and financial environment. Risk management post financial crisis : a period of monetary easing includes papers from leading authors from central banks, world-renowned universities and international organisations. Topics and issues addressed by this volume include: an overview of advances in risk management in the post financial crisis environment, the impact that complexity present in financial returns now plays in measuring reporting and risk, the role that sentiment and herding plays in distorting prices in financial markets, the pro-cyclical impact of Basel III including effects on capital requirements and bank balance sheets, central bank monetary policies and bank liquidity in a world without quantitative easing, credit risk assessment and bank lending, and changes in the structure of international financial markets, including the rise and impact of financial markets in China and those financial products denominated in RMB.

This study is aim to find out the contribution of intensive margin and extensive margin of Chinese aquatic products export. We construct a measure of the export margin and exploit export data of Chinese firms to analyze it, the result imply that intensive margin affect the export growth significantly, while the role of extensive margin is much important than intensive margin facing external shocks. We also find heterogeneity of markets and firms influence contribution of intensive margin and extensive margin differently: (i) intensive margin plays a positive and steady role in export growth which is imported by developing economies, while external shocks affect intensive margin negatively which is exported to developed economies; (ii) intensive margin and extensive margin of state-owned enterprises negatively impact exports in most years, while the contribution of intensive margin compared with extensive margin more pronounced on both private and foreign firms. However, the impact of external shock on intensive margin of foreign companies is more significantly.

Purpose Seasonal data are characterized by multiple complex features such as seasonal fluctuations and stage differences, which presents challenges for the scientifically sound construction of its predictive models. This article proposes a novel seasonal grey prediction model with a weighted fractional order accumulation operator for accurate prediction of China’s natural gas production. The grey models proposed in this article optimize the accumulation method of the traditional grey model, and flexibly adjust the generation sequence through the two parameters introduced, so as to explore the internal law of the data information at a deeper level, and achieve the purpose of improving the model accuracy. Design/methodology/approach Firstly, based on the seasonal fluctuations of the raw data, the raw data is divided into four seasonal groups. Secondly, when an external disturbance affects the system, the classic average weakening buffer operator is used to weaken its effects. Then, the new information accumulation parameters ? and the fractional-order cumulative generating operator parameter r, are optimized using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. Findings The experimental results show that the new grey prediction model (DGGM(1,1,λ,r)and DGGM(1,N,λ,r)) perform better than other models. This model is more suitable for solving the prediction problem of seasonal fluctuation systems with external disturbances. Practical implications The seasonal grey model proposed in this article is suitable for predicting data sequences with seasonal changes while considering the impact of external shock. Two models proposed in this article are used in two cases, i.e. estimating China’s natural gas production and predicting total electricity consumption in Nanjing city. Accurately predicting to provide a decision-making basis for the Chinese government to formulate energy policies, plan energy layouts, and adjust industrial structures. Originality/value Simultaneously considering seasonal changes and external shock disturbances, the data grouping approach is used to identify seasonal changes. This article proposes a new weighted fractional order accumulation operator that combines the new information accumulation operator and the fractional order accumulation operator. A novel seasonal grey prediction model with external impacts is proposed to improve the predictive performance of the system. The PSO algorithm is used to solve the parameter optimization problem of the model.

Purpose– The purpose of this study is to elucidate the determinants of economic resilience at various levels of analysis. While the economic benefits of regional clustering are well-documented, the impact of external shocks on regional clusters has only recently gained attention. This study explores the antecedents of economic resilience, defined as sustained employment growth, prior to and during the global financial crisis within the German biotechnology industry.Design/methodology/approach– This study combines multilevel linear regression analysis with egocentric network analysis. This allows us to distinguish micro- and context-level effects in the analysis of economic resilience.Findings– The findings of this study indicate that while specialization at the network and context-level is conducive to firm growth prior to the crisis, these configurations seem to be particularly susceptible to external shocks. Conversely, diversity (diversified regional agglomerations and diverse networks) seems to be associated with economic resilience during the crisis. Moreover, we find that economic resilience is connected to adaptive capability at the micro-level, that is, the ability to expand and diversify a firms’ portfolio of network ties in the face of an external shock. Finally, we show that these adaptive processes are facilitated by geographical proximity among collaborating organizations.Originality/value– This study contributes to the existing literature by showing that the antecedents of economic resilience are located at multiple levels of analysis. An important implication of this study is that the examination of the resilience of regional clusters may thus be significantly enhanced by disentangling effects at the firm, network and regional (i.e. context) level.

The European energy crisis not only led to an increase in energy prices but also to a recession in the Moldovan economy. After the end of the energy crisis, stagnation was registered in Moldova. The recession and subsequent stagnation led to an increase in the number of people living below the poverty line, as well as to the rise in energy poverty. Thus, in these circumstances, the study of energy vulnerability and its impact on the quality of life has become especially relevant. Therefore, the main research problem in this article is to analyze energy vulnerability as a risk factor for the decline in the quality of life in Moldova. The aim of the research is to assess the relationship between energy vulnerability and quality of life in Moldova. The main objectives of this study are to analyze the theoretical aspects of the concept of energy vulnerability, identify and analyze the determinants of energy vulnerability, and conduct an empirical assessment of the impact of energy vulnerability on households in Moldova. The object of the study is energy vulnerability and its impact on the quality of life. The article examines the theoretical aspects of the concept of energy vulnerability, as well as the determinants of energy vulnerability. Research methods: abstract logical method, comparative analysis method, statistical and economic methods. The central hypothesis: Moldova’s energy vulnerability at the macro level is transformed into a decline in the quality of life and into deprivation of households at the micro level. The statement of basic materials: The conducted empirical analysis showed that Moldova is vulnerable to external energy shocks, as it mainly imports energy resources. Domestic primary energy production covered 22.2% of total energy consumption, while domestic electricity production covered 11.3% of total electricity consumption in 2023. The primary sources of electricity are the CHP (Combined Heat and Power) plants in Chisinau and Balti, as well as the growing green energy. But, unfortunately, the share of renewable energy is still small. Moldova is pursuing a strategy of energy resource diversification to strengthen energy security. To this end, the synchronization of Moldovan power grids with the European ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity) network and the construction of the Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline were carried out. However, the implementation of these projects has not yet yielded tangible results. The main reason is the increase in the price of energy resources, which has negatively affected the competitiveness of goods, as their prices have also risen due to the rise in energy costs. As a result, there is a decline in production and an increase in the number of unemployed, which negatively affects the quality of life. At the same time, the increase in tariffs for energy resources has led to a rise in the share of energy expenditure above 10% of total consumer spending, which indicates both energy poverty and a decrease in the quality of life of the population. The originality and practical significance of the study: This study contributes to the scientific literature by presenting the results of an empirical analysis using the example of a country with a high dependence on energy imports. In this paper, the authors examine how the impact of external shocks on energy vulnerability is manifested in the quality of life of the population. Conclusions and prospects for further research: The results of the study revealed that energy vulnerability is a persistent issue in Moldova. It is leading to energy poverty and limiting the basic opportunities of the population to access quality food, to purchase clothes and shoes, since, within the available budget, households are forced to reduce other expenditure items to cover the costs of heating, hot water, and electricity. The transition to lower-quality nutrition leads to health problems. Thus, energy vulnerability will lead to a decrease in the quality of life and is an obstacle to a decent life.

Optimal mission abort policy for systems subject to random shocks based on virtual age process

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INTERRELATIONSHIP OF INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATE AND INTEREST RATES IN THE CONTEXT OF HUNGARY'S STRATEGIC POLICY

How to quantitatively measure the macro dynamic effect of monetary policy is one of the most critical issues in the mainstream macro research （Benanke and Gertler, 1995; Christiano, et al., 1999）. In the context of global financial integration, how will a country’s monetary policy affect the macroeconomy of other countries? This international spillover effect of monetary policy has been hotly debated in the academy, but it has not yet been conclusive. The reason is that, empirically, how to identify the impact of exogenous monetary policy has not been well resolved at the technical level; theoretically, mainstream macroeconomic models provide various transmission mechanisms, and no consensus has been reached.Due to the above difficulties, research on the international spillover effect of monetary policy is still in its early stage, and the impact of US monetary policy on China’s economy is seldom studied. From the empirical point of view, this article follows the latest literature Barakchian and Crowe （2013, hereinafter referred to as BC） to identify the impact of exogenous monetary policy in the United States, and studies the dynamic impact of US monetary policy on China’s macroeconomy and its underlying transmission mechanism. This article provides new evidence on the international spillover effect of monetary policy and also tests the existing theories in international economics from an empirical perspective.The primary issue to be addressed in monetary policy research is how to identify exogenous monetary policy shocks. However, macroeconomic regulation often relies on the current situation of aggregate economy. Since there is a strong endogenous relationship among economic variables, it is difficult to directly construct a system that includes policy variables and macroeconomic indicators to identify exogenous monetary policy shocks. To this end, BC （2013） solves the endogenous issue regarding the identification of monetary policy shocks. The exogenous shock constructed through their indicator not only avoids making ad hoc assumptions about the feedback rules of monetary policy, but also avoids the endogenous problems and the sample selection issue in traditional identification methods.Based on the US monetary policy shock constructed by BC （2013）, this article studies the spillover effect of US monetary policy on China’s macroeconomy and therefore solves the aforementioned endogenous problem of monetary policy shocks. The basic model of the empirical analysis is a three-variable structural vector autoregressive error correction model （SVECM） that includes China’s industrial output, price index, and US monetary policy shocks. Based on this model, we find that the opening-up policy of WTO accession at the end of 2001 has a significant structural impact on the spillover effect of US monetary policy and its transmission mechanism. Specifically, we divide the monthly data from 1996−2008 into two sub-samples before and after January 2002. Using the 2002−2008 subsample, we find that the impact of the US’s tightening monetary policy significantly causes China’s output to rise and prices to fall, thus performing as a positive supply shock to China’s economy. Based on the 1996−2001 subsample, US monetary policy will not have a significant impact on China’s economy. The above findings are largely different from the findings in Kim （1999, 2001）, Canova （2005）, and among others.In the analysis of the transmission mechanism, this article finds that the price channel can well explain the stylized facts in the data. Our theory proceeds as follows: The US tightening monetary policy will lead to the appreciation of the US dollar, which will cause US manufacturers to lower their export prices in US dollars （Exchange Rate Pass-Through）. Due to the yuan-dollar fixed exchange rate system, China’s import prices will decline, and the prices of domestic raw materials and CPI will decline. Lower production costs lead manufacturers to increase production, which is reflected by an increase in China’s output. Therefore, the price channel indicates that the US tightening monetary policy is equivalent to a positive supply shock, which will simultaneously increase China’s output and reduce the price level. Based on the extended SVECM system, we find that Chinese macro data can identify the price channels of imported goods. Further robustness analysis shows that our main findings are robust to different sample periods and different model settings. Besides, in order to better explain the identification of import price channels, we have conducted empirical tests on several standard theories in international economics. The results show that the standard theories fail to explain the Chinese data. Therefore, the price channel provides the primary transmission mechanism of the spillover effect of US monetary policy on China’s economy, and this channel also explains the empirical finding that WTO has a structural impact on the spillover effect.

The paper's starting point is finding an answer to the question: What kind of monetary policy should be followed by the Central bank in new market circumstances? As a major monetary institution, the Central bank should provide credibility for its monetary policy, which is particularly important during a macroeconomic stabilisation. In order to choose the most appropriate monetary policy, its creators should be familiar with the monetary policy's effects on economic activities, first of all on investment activities and the period in which they may occur. The Central bank uses its special status and authorisations to control monetary trends, to keep and handle foreign exchange reserves, to keep banks' required reserves, to manage the country's debt, to be the final creditor of the banking system, to take care of the banking system's liquidity. That is why the Central bank has become important for the functioning of the whole financial market, and especially the monetary market. The Central bank has both direct and indirect influence on the most important events on financial markets, financial system, as well as a wider influence - on a country's whole economy. In order to envisage the financial market's impact on monetary and investment policies, one should begin with the Central bank's role on the financial market, and at the same time analyse the financial market's instruments and institutions.

A central bank is a kind of special financial institution, so its balance sheet is different from those of other financial institutions. A central bank is an institution that is not intended to make a profit, so the changes in its balance sheet are not the asset allocation made by the central bank based on market returns and risk expectations, but centrally reflect the changes and adjustments of a country’s monetary policy. As the monetary policy operations vary in different countries, the structures of the central bank balance sheets of different countries are also greatly different. Meanwhile, in different historical periods, the changes in economic and financial systems and environments will affect the choice of monetary policy instruments. This determines that there are not only large differences in total assets/liabilities but also great differences in the asset/liability structures in the balance sheet of a country’s central bank in different historical periods. For example, the total assets and liabilities and asset/liability structure of the Fed in 2008 were greatly different from those after the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Similarly, the total amount and structure of China’s central bank balance sheet have been constantly changing in different time periods since the reform and opening-up. It reflects the changes in the adjustment means and mechanism of China’s monetary policies and the historical changes in China’s financial system. Therefore, observing the changes in the central bank balance sheet is also one of the approaches to understand and observe a country’s monetary policies.

Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles: Calibrating the Monetary Policy Trade-Offs