Efficiency improvement and variance reduction

We consider noisy optimization and some traditional variance reduction techniques aimed at improving the convergence rate, namely (i) common random numbers (CRN), which is relevant for population-based noisy optimization and (ii) stratified sampling, which is relevant for most noisy optimization problems. We present artificial models of noise for which common random numbers are very efficient, and artificial models of noise for which common random numbers are detrimental. We then experiment on a desperately expensive unit commitment problem. As expected, stratified sampling is never detrimental. Nonetheless, in practice, common random numbers nonetheless provided, by far, most of the improvement.

This chapter develops methods for increasing the efficiency of Monte Carlo simulation by reducing the variance of simulation estimates. These methods draw on two broad strategies for reducing variance: taking advantage of tractable features of a model to adjust or correct simulation outputs, and reducing the variability in simulation inputs. We discuss control variates, antithetic variates, stratified sampling, Latin hypercube sampling, moment matching methods, and importance sampling, and we illustrate these methods through examples. Two themes run through this chapter: The greatest gains in efficiency from variance reduction techniques result from exploiting specific features of a problem, rather than from generic applications of generic methods. Reducing simulation error is often at odds with convenient estimation of the simulation error itself; in order to supplement a reduced-variance estimator with a valid confidence interval, we sometimes need to sacrifice some of the potential variance reduction. KeywordsImportance SamplingVariance ReductionLatin Hypercube SamplingGeometric Brownian MotionUnderlying AssetThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Three basic techniques are proposed for reducing the variance of the stand volume estimate provided by cylinder sampling and Ueno's method. Ueno's method is based on critical height sampling but does not require measurement of critical heights. Instead, a count of trees whose critical heights are less than randomly generated heights is used to estimate stand volume. Cylinder sampling selects sample trees for which randomly generated heights fall within cylinders formed by tree heights and point sampling plot sizes. The methods proposed here for variance reduction in cylinder sampling and Ueno's method are antithetic variates, importance sampling, and control variates. Cylinder sampling without variance reduction was the most efficient of 12 methods compared in computer simulation that used estimated measurement times. However, cylinder sampling requires knowledge of a combined variable individual tree volume equation. Of the three variance reduction techniques applied to Ueno's method, antithetic variates performed best in computer simulation.

Chapter 5 - Variance Reduction Techniques

We provide a thorough analysis of the effectiveness of different Variance Reduction Techniques (VRTs). We consider both stand-alone and combined applications of two input techniques, Antithetic Variates (AV) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and two output techniques, Control Variates (CV) and Poststratified Sampling (PS). Previous research in the area mainly focuses on asymptotic variance reduction. In this experimental study, we measure the performance of VRTs under finite simulation run lengths and analyze their effects. Our findings show that the asymptotic variance reduction results do not readily apply to finite-length simulations. We consider three different types of systems (M/M/1, serial production line and (s, S) inventory control systems) and compare the VRTs under various experimental conditions. We observe that a variance reduction cannot be guaranteed for every instance a VRT is applied. Our results also indicate that the output VRTs (CV, PS) are better than input VRTs (AV, LHS) on the average for the single systems considered in this study. More interestingly, the less-sophisticated techniques (AV, CV) often perform better than the relatively more-complex techniques (LHS, PS). A comprehensive bibliography is also provided.

The efficiency of several variance reduction techniques (in particular, importance sampling, stratified sampling, and control variates) are studied with respect to their application in estimating circuit yields. This study suggests that one essentially has to have a good approximation of the region of acceptability in order to achieve significant variance reduction. Further, all the methods considered are based, either explicitly or implicity, on the use of a model. The control variate method appears to be more practical for implementation in a general purpose statistical circuit analysis program. Stratified sampling is the most simple to implement, but yields only very modest reductions in the variance of the yield estimator. Lastly, importance sampling is very useful when there are few parameters and the yield is very high or very low; however, a good practical technique for its implementation, in general, has not been found.

This paper develops importance resampling into a variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo integration. Importance resampling is a sample generation technique that can be used to generate more equally weighted samples for importance sampling. This can lead to significant variance reduction over standard importance sampling for common rendering problems. We show how to select the importance resampling parameters for near optimal variance reduction. We demonstrate the robustness of this technique on common global illumination problems and achieve a 10%-70% variance reduction over standard importance sampling for direct lighting. We conclude that further variance reduction could be achieved with cheaper sampling methods.

Traditionally, exactness, numerical stability and speed are the three main criteria for evaluating algorithms for random variate generation. However, it is sometimes required that the algorithms provide correlation between generated variates for the purpose of inducing dependence among the output of simulation runs. The inverse transformation, which produces optimal correlation induction, often performs poorly in terms of the first three criteria. Algorithms based on composition, rejection, and special properties which often excel in terms of the first three criteria, tend to scramble the use of random numbers, causing many attempts at common random numbers, antithetic variates and external control variates to fail. The concept of obtaining correlation via algorithms other than the inverse transformation is examined here. To demonstrate feasibility, previously developed algorithms for Poisson and binomial random variate generation are modified to obtain both positive and negative correlation between runs....

In this paper, we propose a fractional stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model which extends the Bates(1996) model. Where we model the volatility as a fractional process. Extensive empirical studies show that the distributions of the logarithmic returns of financial asset usually exhibit properties of self-similarity and long-range dependence and since the fractional Brownian motion has these two important properties, it has the ability to capture the behavior of underlying asset price. Further incorporating jumps into the stochastic volatility framework gives further freedom to financial mathematicians to fit both the short and long end of the implied volatility surface. We propose a stochastic model which contains both fractional and jump process. Then we price options using Monte Carlo simulations along with a variance reduction technique(antithetic variates). We use market data from the S&P 500 index and we compare our results with the Heston and Bates model using error measures. The results show our model greatly outperforms previous models in terms of estimation accuracy.

Use of Lagrange Interpolating Polynomials in RLT. Systems in Series. Parallel Configurations. Spanning trees. Recycling. Split Cuts. Retrial Queues. Horse Racing. MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique). Dual simplex. History of CP. Procurement Contracts. MRP. Just in Time. Push and Pull Production. MULTIVARIATE INPUT MODELING. Operational Research Society. The M/G/1 Queue. Drama Theory. Hyper-heuristics. Antithetic Variates. Music. Edgeworth market games. Operational Risk. Queueing Notation. Environmental impact. Why variance is not risk. Conjugate gradient methods. Birth-and-Death Processes. Surgery Planning and Scheduling. Large-scale linear models. Standby Systems. Billiards/Pool. AXIOMATIC MEASURES OF RISK AND RISK-VALUE MODELS. Age Replacement Policies. PASTA and Related Results. Collaborative Procurement. LP projection algorithms. R&D risk management. Bioterrorism. Vendor-Managed Inventory. Gomory Cuts. Travel demand modeling. System Availability. Infinite horizon problems. Trust. Bayesian Network Classifiers. Integer Programming Duality. Queueing Disciplines. Stakeholder participation. Models and Basic Properties. Parametric LP analysis. Operations Research and Golfing. Ice Hockey. Clustering. Finite-Population Models. Batch Arrivals and Service. Optimal Monitoring Strategies. Basic Polyhedral Theory. Operations Research and Art. Managing portfolios of risks. Measures of risk equity. Branch and Bound Algorithms. Analytics in Retail. Variational Inequalities. Cross-Entropy Method. TSP heuristics. Capacity allocation. Control Variates. Cover Inequalities. Direct Search Methods. NLP Software. Bilinear optimization. Discrete-Time Martingales. Branch and Price. Column generation. IP Preprocessing. Optimal Reliability Allocation. Simplex-based LP solvers. Instance Formats. Clique generalizations. Availability in Stochastic Models. Evolutionary Algorithms. Basic CP theory: Search. Multimethodology. Branch and Cut. Memetic Algorithms. Urban mass transit. Coherent Systems. Subgradient optimization. Klimov's Model. Credit risk assessment. Branch-width and Tangles. Stochastic Hazard Process. Deterministic Global Optimization. Multistage (stochastic) games. Basis Reduction Methods. ACCIDENT PRECURSORS AND WARNING SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT: A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO MATHEMATICAL MODELS. Genetic Algorithms. Newsvendor models. Parallel Systems. Opportunities in Tennis. Job-shop scheduling. Simplex method and complexity. Geometric programming. Evacuation Planning. The Performance? Allocation Games. Scenario Generation. Robustness Analysis. Dynamic auctions. Neuroeconomics and game theory. Common Random Numbers. Selective Support Vector Machines. Semi-Markov Processes. Risk Averse Models. Sampling Methods. Domination problems. Simulation of Rare Events. Introduction to Tabu Search. Basic Interdiction Models. Introductory Concepts. Remanufacturing. PAUSE procedure. Wardrop equilibria. Mass customization. Ellipsoidal algorithms. Benders decomposition. Dynamic vehicle routing. Warranty Modeling. Design for Network Resiliency. Passenger rail transportation. Vehicle Routing Problem. Supply Chain Outsourcing. Lovasz-Schriver Reformulation. Hazard Rate Function. Lot-sizing. Differential games. Regenerative Processes. Guided Local Search. Preferences for repeated gambles. Percolation Theory. Simulated Annealing. Scoring Rules. Mixing Sets. Cricket. Prospect Theory. Combining Forecasts. Graph search techniques. Quasi-Newton methods. Random search algorithms. Supply chain coordination. Service Outsourcing. Markov Renewal Processes. K-out-of-n Systems.

The paper is dealing with estimation of rare event probabilities in stochastic networks. The well known variance reduction technique, called Importance Sampling (IS) is an effective tool for doing this. The main idea of IS is to simulate the random system under a modified set of parameters, so as to make the occurrence of the rare event more likely. The major problem of the IS technique is that the optimal modified parameters, called reference parameters to be used in IS are usually very difficult to obtain. Rubinstein (Eur J Oper Res 99:89–112, 1997) developed the Cross Entropy (CE) method for the solution of this problem of IS technique and then he and his collaborators applied this for estimation of rare event probabilities in stochastic networks with exponential distribution [see De Boer et al. (Ann Oper Res 134:19–67, 2005)]. In this paper, we test this simulation technique also for medium sized stochastic networks and compare its effectiveness to the simple crude Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation. The effectiveness of a variance reduction simulation algorithm is measured in the following way. We calculate the product of the necessary CPU time and the estimated variance of the estimation. This product is compared to the same for the simple Crude Monte Carlo simulation. This was originally used for comparison of different variance reduction techniques by Hammersley and Handscomb (Monte Carlo Methods. Methuen & Co Ltd, London, 1967). The main result of the paper is the extension of CE method for estimation of rare event probabilities in stochastic networks with beta distributions. In this case the calculation of reference parameters of the importance sampling distribution requires numerical solution of a nonlinear equation system. This is done by applying a Newton–Raphson iteration scheme. In this case the CPU time spent for calculation of the reference parameter values cannot be neglected. Numerical results will also be presented.

Parametric sensitivity of biochemical networks is an indispensable tool for studying system robustness properties, estimating network parameters, and identifying targets for drug therapy. For discrete stochastic representations of biochemical networks where Monte Carlo methods are commonly used, sensitivity analysis can be particularly challenging, as accurate finite difference computations of sensitivity require a large number of simulations for both nominal and perturbed values of the parameters. In this paper we introduce the common random number (CRN) method in conjunction with Gillespie's stochastic simulation algorithm, which exploits positive correlations obtained by using CRNs for nominal and perturbed parameters. We also propose a new method called the common reaction path (CRP) method, which uses CRNs together with the random time change representation of discrete state Markov processes due to Kurtz to estimate the sensitivity via a finite difference approximation applied to coupled reaction paths that emerge naturally in this representation. While both methods reduce the variance of the estimator significantly compared to independent random number finite difference implementations, numerical evidence suggests that the CRP method achieves a greater variance reduction. We also provide some theoretical basis for the superior performance of CRP. The improved accuracy of these methods allows for much more efficient sensitivity estimation. In two example systems reported in this work, speedup factors greater than 300 and 10,000 are demonstrated.

Infinitely divisible random vectors and Lévy processes without Gaussian component admit representations with shot noise series. To enhance efficiency of the series representation in Monte Carlo simulations, we discuss variance reduction methods, such as stratified sampling, control variates and importance sampling, applied to exponential interarrival times forming the shot noise series. We also investigate the applicability of the generalized linear transformation method in the quasi-Monte Carlo framework to random elements of the series representation. Although implementation of the proposed techniques requires a small amount of initial work, the techniques have the potential to yield substantial improvements in estimator efficiency, as the plain use of the series representation in those frameworks is often expensive. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of our approaches.Keywordsquasi-Monte Carlo (QMC)Series RepresentationQMC MethodVariance Reduction MethodsImportance SamplingThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Investigating the Effectiveness of Variance Reduction Techniques in Manufacturing, Call Center and Cross-Docking Discrete Event Simulation Models

This paper examines the application of Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Antithetic Variables (AVs) to reduce the variance of estimated performance measures from microscopic traffic simulators. LHS and AV allow for a more representative coverage of input probability distributions through stratification, reducing the standard error of simulation outputs. Two methods of implementation are examined, one where stratification is applied to headways and routing decisions of individual vehicles and another where vehicle counts and entry times are more evenly sampled. The proposed methods have wider applicability in general queuing systems. LHS is found to outperform AV, and reductions of up to 71% in the standard error of estimates of traffic network performance relative to independent sampling are obtained. LHS allows for a reduction in the execution time of computationally expensive microscopic traffic simulators as fewer simulations are required to achieve a fixed level of precision with reductions of up to 84% in computing time noted on the test cases considered. The benefits of LHS are amplified for more congested networks and as the required level of precision increases.