Emergency Management in Critical Infrastructures: A Complex-Event-Processing Paradigm

Poor planning and insufficient maintenance of existing structures and systems in developing countries like Nepal and Bangladesh have left them inadequate, unreliable, and vulnerable. Natural hazards have further exacerbated the impacts on these fragile, complex, and interconnected systems, which are expected to rise with the looming threat of increasing climate-induced uncertainties. Infrastructure resilience is, hence, indispensable for the sustainable development of any society. Therefore, a robust monitoring and decision support system is crucial in strengthening infrastructure resilience, which will inadvertently help in societal adaptation and resilience to hazards and threats. This paper discusses the effectiveness of digital technologies in reducing the risk of climate-induced hazards, taking the case of a climate change innovation – CRISTA developed by the Asian Institute of Technology and showcasing how the pilot solution was successful in addressing one of the pressing gaps in critical infrastructure risk management in Nepal. The CRISTA application collects real-time community information while delivering risk information and alerts. A human-AI hybrid network served as an interface between the data collected from real-time monitoring and the CRISTA dashboard. The vulnerability assessment for input in CRISTA was carried out using the IPCC AR5 risk assessment framework. This study also proves how digital technology applications can be beneficial for near-real-time monitoring, risk assessment, and decision-making in risk management of critical infrastructure systems by the use and integration of a crowdsourcing mobile application and associated geospatial dashboard.

Besides its function to maintain the social and economic well-being of a nation, operating critical infrastructure serves as a proof of the ability of the state to provide protection to its citizens. Hence, a successful terrorist attack targeting critical infrastructure - in addition to generating fear and panic in the ranks of society undermines the operational character of the state. In recent years, several terrorist incidents in Europe have highlighted the vulnerability of critical infrastructure and, consequently, the importance of protecting it. Bearing this in mind, the protection of critical infrastructure has become a high priority for Western states, in parallel with the growing trend of risks, challenges and threats posed by international terrorism. Recently Europe has seen an increase in terrorist attacks against members of law enforcement as well as the armed forces. This paper argues that such attacks should also be considered as attacks on critical infrastructure, as it is ultimately the human resources being responsible for the well-functioning of those agencies. Further, the paper aims to examine the religious justification of Jihadist terrorist attacks against critical infrastructure.

A Decision Support System for the Resilience of Critical Transport Infrastructure to Extreme Weather Events

Chapter 22 - Critical infrastructure resilience in Eastern Economic Corridor of Thailand—a review

The work proposes an operational model for the management of cross-border transport critical infrastructures. Particular focus is given to road and rail network. The main goal is to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) for the management of relevant events that may have impacts on the two countries. The SICt project - Resilience of cross-border Critical Infrastructures is part of the Interreg VA Italy-Switzerland 2014-2020. The project area includes Regione Lombardia (Italy) and Canton Ticino (Switzerland) and has been divided into two areas. The study area where the hazards (events) of both anthropic and natural origin are analyzed. Critical scenarios on critical infrastructure are also evaluated. The impact area is a larger area in which the effects, after the total or partial interruptions of a critical infrastructure in the study area, are evaluated. Specifically, the work illustrates the different operational phases of the proposed model. The first one is the analysis of anthropic and natural hazards related to the study area: road and rail accidents, rail failures, intense rainfall events, floods, landslides, debris flow, etc... The second phase concerns the detailed analysis aimed at managing the events, with particular reference to the first responders’ intervention models and the emergency and traffic management plans. This phase also includes the implementation of a monitoring network and an IT platform, used to share data and information about critical infrastructures. The third phase is the test and validation of the IT platform implemented.

Hierarchical decision making is a multidimensional process involving management of multiple objectives (with associated metrics and tradeoffs in terms of costs, benefits, and risks), which span various levels of a large-scale system. The nation is a hierarchical system as it consists multiple classes of decisionmakers and stakeholders ranging from national policymakers to operators of specific critical infrastructure subsystems. Critical infrastructures (e.g., transportation, telecommunications, power, banking, etc.) are highly complex and interconnected. These interconnections take the form of flows of information, shared security, and physical flows of commodities, among others. In recent years, economic and infrastructure sectors have become increasingly dependent on networked information systems for efficient operations and timely delivery of products and services. In order to ensure the stability, sustainability, and operability of our critical economic and infrastructure sectors, it is imperative to understand their inherent physical and economic linkages, in addition to their cyber interdependencies. An interdependency model based on a transformation of the Leontief input-output (I-O) model can be used for modeling: (1) the steady-state economic effects triggered by a consumption shift in a given sector (or set of sectors); and (2) the resulting ripple effects to other sectors. The inoperability metric is calculated for each sector; this is achieved by converting the economic impact (typically in monetary units) into a percentage value relative to the size of the sector. Disruptive events such as terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and large-scale accidents have historically shown cascading effects on both consumption and production. Hence, a dynamic model extension is necessary to demonstrate the interplay between combined demand and supply effects. The result is a foundational framework for modeling cybersecurity scenarios for the oil and gas sector. A hypothetical case study examines a cyber attack that causes a 5-week shortfall in the crude oil supply in the Gulf Coast area.

A reliability & risk framework for the assessment and management of system risks in critical infrastructures with central control rooms

Framework construction for augmentation of resilience in critical infrastructure: Developing countries a case in point

The resilience of an area/region/country or society is directly related to the performance of its Critical infrastructures (CI), especially when it is affected by extreme events. The increasing number of catastrophic events, such as terrorist attacks or natural disasters (tsunamis, fires, floods), alerted Europe and other nations worldwide to take measures for preventing or reducing possible consequences against these situations. CI are commonly defined as facilities, systems and assets, essential for the maintenance of vital social functions, and their disruption or destruction may significantly impact the well-being of society. It is mandatory for any nation to identify which Infrastructures must be defined as critical, by analyzing the impacts provoked by an extreme event and the society’s dependence towards this Infrastructure. For this purpose, European Commission established a procedure for the identification and designation of European CI ensuring to avoid different approaches within the EU. Three cross-cutting criteria where defined: (a) Casualties; (b) Economic-effect; (c) Public effect. This paper aims to introduce different risk management models for CI and the parameters necessary for quantification of these Methodologies. There are several models for risk management, the ones studied and introduced in this paper were applied in different countries and types of CI, these vary from deterministic approaches to probabilistic methods. The critically parameters are related in governmental, economical, security and welfare terms, these parameters are important for two main reasons: (1) to keep updated the critical index and the maps of risks and vulnerability that predictive models may use; (2) Current tools are essentially based on models weighed by qualitative weights, not allowing the complete analysis of one-off events.

The Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is characterized by the specificity of the development of its interconnected critical infrastructures’ objects (ICI) - power generation and transmission systems, social infrastructure facilities, transportation (land, air, water) and communication systems, by the exceptional importance of their stable operation. The spatial isolation of the ICI objects predetermines, practically for each municipality, formation of its specific configuration, defining the range of needed capacities, corresponding set of ICI objects, etc. The main functional of Arctic ICI objects is to provide and sustain life support. Authors developed a model that permits high resolution description of ICI operation on the local level. The accuracy of the model is enough, especially for describing electrical and water supply grids and nets. Its substantial advantage is the generality of its mathematical description of the ICI of different physical nature and its capacity to account for the randomness of ICI parameters. The model permits simulation of the ICI behavior on the local level when exposed to ordinary, everyday conditions and in emergency situations (i.e., during an industrial disaster, Natural catastrophe or a terrorist attack). Several specific problems were solved using this approach for the AZRF region.

Smart grid infrastructure is one of the critical infrastructure that combines the energy and telecommunications infrastructure and Internet networks. Thus, the smart grid must operate safely and meet the information security aspects. This research is a case study in smart electricity grid as critical infrastructure. The research objective is for improvement on critical infrastructure security policies based on case studies conducted. This research was conducted with the combined quantitative and qualitative method that combines the results of the risk assessment on the research object to the opinion of experts / practitioners. Results of this research is input to policy frameworks and securing of critical infrastructure.

The article describes terrorist and sabotage attacks carried out worldwide against two major critical infrastructure (CI) systems: energy supply and public transport. The selection of the events described in the article was subjective. In the section on attacks on the energy sector, the author adopted a geographical division – Middle East, Africa and South America. In the section on attacks on public transport, the division includes land transport and air transport. In the case of terrorist attacks on rail infrastructure, the author mainly used Anneli Botha’s study covering data from 2000 to 2017 and the work of Brian M. Jenkins and Bruce R. Butterworth, and for air transport, the work of Jacques Duchesneau. Not all data on attacks on CI systems has been updated due to the fact that the information contained in the sources is partial. The author draws the conclusion that with the development of modern technology and the escalation of tensions in international relations, the level of threat to CI will increase.

Lithuania’s national security and economic stability rely on the resilience of its critical infrastructures (CIs), which face increasing threats from hybrid warfare and technological complexity. The article analyses Lithuania’s evolving approach to strengthening critical infrastructure (CI), shifting from traditional Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) to Critical Infrastructure Resilience (CIR). While CIP focuses on preventing risks and safeguarding assets, CIR emphasizes the ability of systems to anticipate, absorb, and recover from disruptions—especially in the face of hybrid threats and increasing technological complexity. This transition involves proactive policies, integrated risk assessments, and resilience-by-design principles in infrastructure planning. The article points out the foundational role of CI in national security. These systems—ranging from energy and transport to health and ICT—are essential for public safety, economic stability, and societal well-being. Their interdependence with national security sectors underlines the importance of robust protection and resilience frameworks. The article discusses key megatrends impacting CIP in Lithuania, including digital transformation, regulatory shifts, and growing system interconnectivity. These trends necessitate more dynamic and adaptive strategies as infrastructures face both traditional and emerging threats. The author of the article proposes the roadmap that includes seven key steps: adopting a resilience mindset, conducting comprehensive risk assessments, embedding resilience in infrastructure development, enhancing cybersecurity, fostering public–private collaboration, engaging communities, and implementing continuous monitoring and improvement mechanisms. The article concludes by recommending initiatives for further enhancement of the resilience of critical infrastructure.

Olena Afanasieva, Oleksii Basmanov, Serhii Novikov FORMATION OF THE CONCEPT OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE OBJECTS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE FEATURES OF POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS OBJECTS OF UKRAINE The paper identifies the main provisions of the methodological apparatus of civil protection in relation to the paradigm - the object of critical infrastructure, taking into account the characteristics of potentially dangerous objects and the regulatory framework of Ukraine. The nature of the origin of the paradigm "object of critical infrastructure" is considered. Global trends in the formation of the paradigm of "critical infrastructure object" in the context of solving problems of civil protection are identified. The existing domestic legislative basis for the formation of a modern type of paradigm "critical infrastructure object" in the context of solving problems of civil protection is analyzed. The latter made it possible to determine the following - to date, and in the European Union has formed a definition of critical infrastructure, which includes physical objects, resources, services and information technology, networks and other infrastructure assets, violation or destruction of which leads to serious consequences for the health, safety and economic well-being of citizens and to the disruption of the effective functioning of government. Ukraine has passed and is in force laws that to some extent provide for measures to prevent emergencies caused by accidents and catastrophes at protected potentially dangerous facilities, the consequences of which can lead to infection, disease and death. Therefore, as a definition of critical infrastructure in the work, it is proposed to identify a set of enterprises, networks, systems, failure or disruption of which can cause loss of management and cause serious damage at the national, regional or local level. It includes nuclear and hydroelectric power plants, chemical and petrochemical plants, metallurgical plants and many other state-owned enterprises and private strategic institutions, which are not only protected, but also have special organizational and technical systems of physical protection. At the next stage of the work, the authors plan to join the development of the State system of critical infrastructure protection, which should include: creation of a state system of critical infrastructure protection; to determine the state structure responsible for the coordination of activities for the protection of critical infrastructure; to form the basis of public-private partnership and resource provision in the field of critical infrastructure protection; to promote the development of international cooperation in the field of critical infrastructure protection. Key words: emergency situation, object of critical infrastructure, civil protection, normative-legal basis

This chapter presents the basic definitions of hazard and risk assessment and mitigation for objects of critical infrastructure. The problem of investigation and assessment of risks, stability, vulnerability and survivability of large-scale systems (LSS) has been formulated. Approaches to the solution of a problem of assessing an abnormal situation in the a priori (pre-crisis, crisis) situation in the similar systems and construction of the system of its state indicators. The concept of rational distribution resources. The priority ranking that belongs to critical infrastructure (as exemplified by the fuel and energy complex facilities) has been discussed. The ranking algorithm as applied to similar facilities, which is based on their systemic value for the LSS, has been suggested. Besides, the algorithm for forming the ranked list of different types of facilities. In addition, the approaches to solving problems of analysis and risk management for critical infrastructure objects of LSS that allow making informed decisions on the rational allocation of funds for their protection are outlined. The noted features of situational management in the understanding of the management process as a process of transfer of information flows from one subject to another. It is shown that the selected persons can be described by including them in a broad, understandable category using special questionnaires. It is noted that such a questionnaire introduces systematicity in the process of apprehension in the analysis of assessed situations. It is shown that if there is sufficiently representative statistics on some criterion (for example, bad/good, regular/freelance, etc.), then using the support vector method, you can define rules in the automatic section of the stream. Consider an example of practical application of the method to the problem of risk prequalification of counterparties.