Emerging threats to energy security - a Delphi study

About 50 million tons of lignin are produced annually in the pulping industry worldwide. A traditional example for lignin research is its use as a resin additive in wood based panels. The aim of this study was to find out why technical lignin has not so far succeeded in substituting for phenolic resins in the wood based panel industry. Interviews were carried out using a multistage expert interview approach adapted from Delphi methods. After the principal factors were identified and verified, quantitative data were taken for the valuation. Technical product properties received the highest ratings by the consulted experts, followed by security of supply, price difference and productivity, which received almost the same overall ratings. Interestingly, researchers rated security of supply much lower than the industry representatives. Depending on fulfilment of criteria identified, the experts expected that between 10 and 30% of phenolic resin can be potentially substituted within the next 10 years.

This collective scholarly monograph offers an interdisciplinary analysis of the relationship between the future and the present. It is based on the premise that the future does not exist merely as a passively awaited temporal horizon, but rather as an active mental, institutional, and strategic construct that enters into today’s decision-making processes. Through scenarios, predictions, value-based visions, and anticipatory strategies, the future influences our actions, education systems, policymaking, and economic behavior. The aim of the monograph is to identify and analyze the mechanisms through which projections of the future are reflected in the present, while also showing how today’s decisions actively shape the trajectory of what is yet to come. The central research question is articulated as follows: How can the dynamic relationship between future projections and present-day decision-making under conditions of uncertainty be scientifically modeled and understood? The answer is elaborated in the concluding chapter. The text is structured into ten thematic chapters covering a broad range of areas: from theoretical approaches to forecasting, game theory, and the economics of productive consumption, to the analysis of “black swan” events, the impact of extraordinary disruptions on financial systems, and issues of migration, energy security, digital dominance, and institutional transformations in the legal framework of investment. The monograph employs a wide spectrum of research methods: both qualitative and quantitative analysis, scenario-building and forecasting techniques, the Delphi method, case studies, comparative historical approaches, and statistical modeling. Its scientific relevance is strengthened by an interdisciplinary framework and methodological plurality, corresponding to the complexity of the subject matter. This publication is intended for academics, policymakers, strategic decision-makers, advanced students, and all those seeking an analytical framework for responsible decision-making in an age of profound uncertainty. It offers tools for critical thinking about the future ‒ not as a passive inevitability, but as a domain that can be actively shaped through science, values, and deliberate action.

The world’s energy landscape is undergoing rapid transformation as societies strive towards renewable and sustainable power sources in response to the need for energy security and climate change. Depletion of fossil fuels and increasing focus on environmental sustainability have been significant drivers in this global shift towards renewables. Among the promising solutions, solar-wind hybrid energy systems have gained attention, capitalizing on the complementary nature of solar and wind resources. However, selecting the optimal site for these hybrid plants is crucial for their successful implementation and efficiency. This research introduces a comprehensive methodology for site selection, seamlessly integrating the Delphi method and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The Delphi method harnesses expert consensus to distil essential criteria, while AHP offers a structured framework to evaluate and prioritize these criteria. The results showed successful utilization of the AHP and Delphi techniques for evaluating the optimal location selection among different cities for solar-wind hybrid energy harnessing in the northwest region of Pakistan. The key factors for selection of optimal location were identified through expert feedback and analysis. Among the selected key main criteria, resource availability and infrastructure and socio-economic factors emerged as the top-ranked criteria in this study. The results of this study hold significant relevance and should be duly considered for solar-wind power project site selection, while also offering opportunities for further enhancements in the future.

The water-energy nexus has increasingly been recognized as one of the key factors underlying the sustainability and security of future water and energy supply. An improved understanding of this issue is required to guide political decision-making on the choice of technologies that can better lead towards water-energy efficient scenarios. One of the biggest challenges relies on the reduction of uncertainties over selected variables, and the analysis of trends and interrelations that may have an impact on the future of water and energy security. This paper presents the results of a Delphi study on prospective and future trends of the water-energy nexus and energy technologies. Based on the opinion and contributions of experts on the topic from different backgrounds, institutions and disciplines, the results indicate the importance of technology innovation and transfer as the main conditioning factors to achieve energy and water security. In terms of energy, biofuels and shale gas are perceived to have the highest potential impacts on water quantity and especially on water quality. Thus their evolution will be influential for future water and environmental security. Biofuels in particular, together with the rising demands for food, have the highest prospects for an increase in agricultural water withdrawals.

Energy security challenges and opportunities in the carbon neutrality context: A hierarchical model through systematic data-driven analysis

<p>In 2020, Taiwan had 1,548,835 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), accounting for 98.93% of all enterprises in Taiwan. SMEs can benefit greatly from emphasizing sustainability, energy security, environmental protection, and economic benefits. This study aimed to identify key barriers and drivers of SMEs’ sustainable development, thereby enhancing their understanding of sustainable development and boosting sustainability. Questionnaire survey was administered to experts, who were required to provide data based on their own experiences. The expert responses were organized and analyzed using the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM). This study analyzed the extent to which barriers and drivers affected the adoption of sustainable manufacturing in SMEs, thereby revealing practical means of promoting sustainable manufacturing in SMEs.</p> <p> </p>